Scout Reports

Can Werner offer FPL value compared to Chelsea midfielders in 2020/21?

Timo Werner (£9.5m) has the potential to offer Fantasy Premier League managers value during his debut campaign in English football.

The German striker arrives at Chelsea as one of the most sought-after in Europe and, if he were to replicate his RB Leipzig form of recent seasons, could make a mockery of his initial £9.5m price-tag.

With goals and assists a real possibility in 2020/21, Fantasy managers should certainly keep an eye on Werner.

We have examined his 2019/20 exploits to assess whether or not he can deliver on that promise, and compete with new colleagues Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) and Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m) for a place in FPL squads.

READ MORE: Our Scout Report on Chelsea midfielder Hakim Ziyech

The History and Statistics

Werner joins Frank Lampard’s evolving Chelsea squad with a wealth of goal-scoring experience that not many players can boast at the age of 24.

This is a man who made 100 Bundesliga appearances before he hit 21 before going on to light up the Champions League too.

But for all his explosive potential as a complete forward, ‘Turbo Timo’ started his professional career as a left-winger in the youth setup at local club VfB Stuttgart.

During his three full seasons with Die Roten, between 2013 and 2016, he mustered just 13 goals in 95 senior Bundesliga appearances.

Despite earning a reputation for acceleration and pace, Werner was initially accused of being a selfish player who did not gel particularly well with those around him.

As a result, his quickness in the final third only yielded Werner nine assists for Stuttgart during those three years as a senior player in Baden-Württemberg.

However, a €10 million move to newly-promoted RasenBallsport Leipzig in 2016 propelled Werner into the coveted player he is today.

It was in Saxony that the player was converted to a striker, retaining a tendency to drift into positions on the left-hand side of the field but adding a ruthless accuracy to his game and increased awareness of how to link-up with those around him.

That unique style of play worked wonders for Werner and Leipzig as he scored 21 goals in his new role, the most of any German in the Bundesliga in 2016/17, adding five assists.

That contribution led to the newly-promoted club finishing second and qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in their relatively short history.

Across the continent’s elite competition and the Europa League, Werner netted seven times in 11 appearances during 2017/18, adding another 13 goals and seven assists in the Bundesliga. After two years of impressing on home soil, he was called up to the German national team and has since found the net 11 times in 29 caps for Die Mannschaft.

In 2018/19, Werner started displaying his explosive potential. Reaching 10 goals for the campaign on December 16, it meant that every time he scored so far that season, he went on to complete a brace. Perhaps an interesting thing to look out for in the Premier League. Could it suggest a likeness to Harry Kane‘s (£10.5m) trademark feast-or-famine approach? Only time will tell.

It took the forward until August 2019 to get his first Bundesliga hat-trick, racked up in a 3-1 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach. But he did not have to wait long for his second, netting three times in an 8-0 win over Mainz, adding three assists in the same match.

Those contributions helped Werner to his best-ever Bundesliga campaign, ending 2019/20 with 28 goals and eight assists in 33 starts and one substitute appearance. Robert Lewandowski’s 34-goal haul was the only thing that stood between him and the Golden Boot award.

As a result, Liverpool, Manchester United and Bayern Munich were all heavily interested in Werner, Chelsea turning heads by eventually winning the race for his signature.

Leaving Leipzig with 78 goals in 127 Bundesliga appearances, the German international arrives at Stamford Bridge as the complete forward, well-known for his explosive pace, accurate finishing and ability to play team-mates through on goal with his capability in wide areas.

Werner has also earned a strong reputation for penalty-taking, dispatching 13 competitive spot-kicks from a possible 16 so far, netting each one awarded to him since October 2018, the date of his last miss.

Comparisons

2019-20Mins per shotMins per shot in the boxMins per shot on targetMins per key pass
Tammy Abraham25.228.163.5105.8
Olivier Giroud25.629.452.6124.9
Mason Mount36.879.899.056.3
Christian Pulisic27.432.669.057.5
Timo Werner *22.828.443.953
Hakim Ziyech **18.255.852.220.8

The Prospects

Werner is likely to fill a void in Chelsea’s attack, notably a centre-forward who can be trusted to link well with the rest of the front-three as well as delivering goals with ruthless regularity.

As you can see from the comparisons referenced above, the German compared favourably to Tammy Abraham (£7.5m) and Olivier Giroud (£7.0m) in 2019/20 when it came to goal threat.

Remembering, of course, that these numbers were not recorded in the Premier League, Werner shot more frequently last season than Chelsea’s two centre-forwards.

While there was not much to separate the trio for minutes per shot in the box (Abraham: 28.1 | Werner: 28.4 | Giroud: 29.4), Werner was the clear winner when it came to accuracy.

Well-known around Europe’s top leagues for composure in front of goal, Werner’s penchant for a shot on target will go a long way to improve on what Abraham and Giroud offered last season.

As you can see from the comparisons above, the German international registered an accurate attempt on goal every 43.9 minutes in the Bundesliga. By comparison, Abraham managed one over 63.5 minutes and Giroud was even further behind on 52.6.

Werner’s shots were often of high quality too. In 2019/20 he recorded an expected goals per 90 figure of 0.62. Lewandowski and Ciro Immobile were the only players across the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 to record a better score there.

We often apply something of a dampener on players coming to England’s top-flight from overseas, as the standard of football is generally higher across the division compared to others. However, in Werner’s case, it is harder to discuss this mitigating factor as we know the player is capable of starring in the Champions League and has already scored against Premier League defences.

Werner’s skill-set is also something that has been somewhat lacking from Chelsea’s attacking under Lampard. While he does know how to use his pace to burst away from a chasing defence, 2019/20 has seen Werner develop an excellent understanding of how to find space against deep blocks – something that Chelsea have struggled to break down under Lampard. The former Leipzig man has often been seen making runs across opposing defences, starting from an initially offside position, arriving in space in front of them, ready to receive the ball and turn, either to pass or shoot.

With Werner likely to improve Chelsea’s goal-scoring capabilities in 2020/21, his arrival is also good news for the attacking assets around him in terms of assists.

When Lampard has no injury concerns, Pulisic and Ziyech are the most likely to flank the German, the latter likely to be the chief beneficiary of Werner’s goal threat. The combination of both players could be exceptionally deadly when you consider how frequently Ziyech created chances last season and how often Werner landed a shot on target.

However, we should also consider the German’s own assist potential. As you can see from the table above, Werner was infinitely more creative than Giroud and Abraham in 2019/20.

He played a key pass every 53 minutes in his final Bundesliga campaign, which was also superior to Pulisic and Mason Mount (£7.0m) as well as Chelsea’s existing forwards.

Combining the strong goal threat, potential for assists and an important role in penalties (now that Willian (£8.0m) has departed and Jorginho (£5.0m) is out of favour), there is every reason to believe that Werner can earn his £9.5m price-tag and then some. Those comparing him with Pulisic and Ziyech will notice that the extra £1.0m/£1.5m is effectively spent on a greater chance of goals and a hand in penalties. That might be too much to pay for some, but if Werner does hit the ground running in the Premier League, he is sure to build up ownership quickly as a potential captain option.

There are Fantasy managers who have expressed concern about the German’s positioning, considering he is capable of playing on the left flank of attacking midfield or a front-three. Pulisic does appear rather nailed-on on that side of the Chelsea team so Werner is probably only going to play there if Lampard’s wider options are completely depleted. Do not forget that Kai Havertz could also be in the squad by the start of 2020/21 so it does seem unlikely that a wide role will be Werner’s regular assignment under Lampard. 

That said, as we already mentioned earlier on, he does still have a tendency to drift to the left. It will be interesting to see what impact this will have on the Chelsea team – and Fantasy managers watching on.

Could it initially cause some issues for Chelsea if he were to drift out of his furrow and tread on Pulisic’s toes and leave the team lacking its spearhead? This is certainly something Lampard will have to look out for.

By contrast, such runs could still have some advantageous effects from a Fantasy perspective with the right input from the Chelsea boss. Werner drifting left could result in a dovetail effect with Pulisic, whereby he drifts into the open space unmarked, not unlike the relationship between Anthony Martial (£9.0m) and Marcus Rashford (£9.5m). That could bode well for the American midfield asset, who is, of course, £1.0m cheaper than Werner.

Either way, Fantasy managers must remember that these runs from Werner have not massively diminished his activity in the penalty box, such are the effectiveness of his pace and movement. Even though he often drifts left, Werner averaged 6.6 touches in the opposition box per 90 in 2019/20. For some context, Roberto Firmino (£9.5m) was the busiest Premier League forward in the penalty area last season, registering 231 touches there (best among forwards), working out at 6.77 per 90.

READ MORE: Our Scout Report on Chelsea midfielder Hakim Ziyech

Best players by position:

1,237 Comments Post a Comment
  1. unclesbasement
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    What do you guys think of this team

    Ryan(Martin)
    Tierney,TAA,Vinagre(Taylor,Ferguson)
    Ziyech,Auba,KDB,Greenwood,Foden
    Mitrovic,Werner(wickham)

    1. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Looks solid enough to me if Arsenal's fixtures are miles better than Liverpool's.

      1. unclesbasement
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yh i will probably change auba to salah if the fixtures are better for liverpool. What do you think of not having Bruno

        1. Krupinho
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Just taken him out for Greenwood and doubled up on Werner and Ziyech

    2. Uncle Baby Billy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Tierney > 4.5
      Foden > 5.0

      Upgrade Mitrovic

      1. unclesbasement
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        mitrovic is on pens and has already done well in prem. Who would you suggest in that price range

        1. Uncle Baby Billy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          You could stretch to Jiminez with the savings

    3. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      No Salah will hurt

  2. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Everyone is probably considering this but...

    Werner and Greenwood
    or
    Auba and Soucek/4.5 def rotation

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Werner and Greenwood. I like but don't love Auba. Think Salah, Sterling, KdB and Mane will all outscore him.

      1. Cheeto__Bandito
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        can do Sterling over Auba, just whether its worth sacking greenwood and having to rotate 'worse' options

      2. Jebiga
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Realy ?
        You dont fancy Arsenal in top 4 ?

        1. Klaren
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Liverpool, City, Chelsea and Liverpool are heavy favourites to finish in top 4 based on betting odds.

          1. Klaren
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Sorry 2nd Liverpool is supposed to be Man United

        2. Shineonme
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I give Arsenal no chance of a top 4 spot

      3. OPTA FPL
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Auba will be top scorer this season

        1. Goonsquad245
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          He might well be, but that doesn't mean the others won't outscore him.

      4. Ze_Austin
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I think the reason for this will, yet again, be his lack of assists. That's what wrecked Sterling's overall points in a season with more goals than all other mids

        But if, just if, Arteta can get him to breach 28 goals, we just might have a monster here

        I still prefer those who get assists until I see that this is happening, though

  3. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Is West Brom's Pereira straight in your team? He can be another Knockaert or another Buendia so I'm afraid to get him from the start

    1. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Nah, at that price I can jump on if he looks PL-adequate.

    2. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      He's just the latest price on the list. Give it a day and no one will remember him.

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      No thanks. 6.0m is a bit pricy. At 5.5m I can get Harrison or Klich from Leeds instead if I want a promoted attacker.

    4. Cheeto__Bandito
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Buendia part 2

      1. FPL Theorist
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        The article on the Official FPL site actually compared him to Buendia, and acted like it was supposed to be a compliment.

        1. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          lol

        2. Ze_Austin
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          lmao

    5. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      when ever was a WBA attacker a good option?

      1. have you seen cyan
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Errr Rondon says hi

        1. Shatner's Bassoon
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          point proven.

        2. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I rather have no Rondon/Perreira and get Doh for 38 weeks

        3. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Most of time Rondon wasn’t a worthwhile option be to fair

          1. Now I'm Panicking
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I remember in a very big blank week he was 3rd in the captains poll. What a time to be alive that was.

      2. ManofKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Lukaku didn't have a bad season with us - not sure what he's up to now...

    6. moz_1983
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Armstrong is cheaper and better.

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        ...and rotates for no reason

        Trust me. I checked for about two hours and did not find a reason. Could change this season, but it's unrelated to Hojbjerg so I don't see why... Here's to hoping

    7. Hairy Potter
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Not for me at that price

  4. Jebiga
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I sow here a bunch of RMT teams without probably the high scoring key players this season:

    1. KDB
    2. Bruno Fernandes
    3. Aubumeyang

    1. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      its very difficult to have all three and then add players like werner,TAA and others

    2. Holteenderinthesky
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Throw Salah into the mix and its impossible to have all 4.

      1. Herman Toothrot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        That's the point

      2. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        It's actually not impossible to have all 4. But it unbalances the team pretty badly. Realistically, you can have 3 I think.

    3. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      It's more important to have the best VALUE players, the ones that can realistically give you at least 25 points per million, and ideally closer to 30.

      Premium players are usually closer to 20 points per million. For example, Auba would need 240 points just to provide 20 ppm. You'd have to captain him half the time to raise that to 30 ppm.

    4. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Salah, Sterling and Mane are also high scoring key players. And since you can’t have all of them, it’s normal that you don’t see some or all of the ones you listed.

  5. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Martial or Jimenez?

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Martial

    2. OPTA FPL
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      neither

      1. moz_1983
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Why not?

        1. Bury94
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          This

          1. Marmalade Forest
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I’d assume they think one of the other ManU attackers offers more points (or better value) and think you should spend more or less than 8.5 for your forward (Go up to Werner at 9.5 or down to Wood/Antonio at 6.5)

            1. Marmalade Forest
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              In fact, you can see that in their RMT below

    3. Hairy Potter
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Depends on fixtures. I feel Martial is more explosive in terms of double digit hauls, but Jimi is just consistent.

    4. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Martial, more explosive.

    5. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Depends. If you've got Penandes then Jimi, if not then Martial.

  6. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Current draft. Of course depends on the fixtures

    Ryan Button
    TAA Vinagre KWP Taylor Ayling
    KDB Salah Bruno Pereira Armstrong
    Werner Antonio Davis

    Could play either 442, 352 or 451 depending on the fixtures

    1. Krupinho
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Similar to mine, although i have just got rid of Bruno for Greenwood and upgraded McCarthy to Ziyech (also have Werner)

      Double Chelsea feels risky, but these 2 players seem like they will be instant hits

    2. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Nice team in fact. Just don't like Armstrong but I guess you got skimp somewhere.

  7. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    The best ghost ship team?

    McC/Nyland
    Trent/VVD/Doh/Taylor/Ferguson
    SALAH(C)/KDB(VC)/Bruno/Souschef/Klich
    Werner/fodder/fodder

    Vinaigre in for Taylor for non ghost ship variant

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      That's a pretty good ghost ship. I think Mitro is kinda perfect for a ghost ship team. Nailed on, will get between 125-170 points at 6.0m that's pretty solid.

      I think any ghost ship has to have two forwards in case one gets injured or else you're stuck with 0 every week at the forward slot.

      1. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Its actually my real team but it seems like it would do well across an entire season barring injuries

  8. Holteenderinthesky
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    442 seems to offer decent value due to the 4.5m defenders.

    4.5
    TAA, Vinagre, 4.5, 4.5
    Salah, Auba, KDB, Pereira
    Werner, Wood

  9. Krupinho
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Have TAA and 4 x 4.5 defenders, that too risky?

    Viangre / KWP / Dallas (may change to Saliba) / Taylor

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      No. It seems like a solid option this season

      1. Krupinho
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Not many other defenders are jumping out, esp over the 5.5 bracket

    2. Reckoner.
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Leeds fan here, think there is a bit too much rotation risk with Dallas.

      Would go with Ayling for the safer pick.

      Dallas is often brought off early for Alioski (before the 60min mark). Also Dallas's competition is Alioski, Douglas, Davis whereas Aylings pretty nailed on. Aylings competition is Dallas and maybe Shackleton.

      1. Krupinho
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Brilliant, thanks for the info.

        Lot of people have gone for Douglas as he at 4m, but assume that is purely to save money and have him as 3rd sub

        Monitoring the Leeds keeper situation as well once pre season starts

        1. Reckoner.
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Talk of Douglas leaving, he came in highly rated but has never managed to nail down a spot, plus he's had injury problems.

          LB could see a lot of rotation but Ayling should be nailed on.

          Chances are Meslier will be the starting keeper but could also be Casilla if he doesn't leave.

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I have TAA and 3x 4.5s with a 4.0 currently, so no, I don't think it's too risky this season to go that strategy.

      1. Krupinho
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        4.0 being Ferguson? Lot of clamor about him, but never heard of him till few days ago lol

        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          New signing. No idea if he'll start. But a clear 4.0m frontrunner will emerge I'm sure. At least one of Ferguson, Mitchell and Johnson will start I think.

  10. Reckoner.
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Probably a different draft to what most people have:

    Alisson | Nyland
    TAA | Robertson | Laporte | Vinagre | Ferguson
    KDB | Greenwood | Maddison | Foden | Soucek
    Martial | Jimenez | Mitrovic

    TAA will be my Liverpool captain, my thinking is Salah & Mane are too expensive when you don't know which one will return game to game. At least TAA has a very high chance of a CS and of Assists + Goals.

    Question mark on Maddison, any alternatives @ 7.0m or better ways to shift the funds about?

    1. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      no point having laporte...rather use that money in midfield.
      dont think maddison is a great option..could go for foden or pereria at that price range
      sure the likes of salah and mane are expensive but they are worth for the points they bring in...

      1. Reckoner.
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah, just can't pick a sub 7.0m Midfielder. Just in there as a placeholder really. Foden's already in there.

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Downgrade Maddison and upgrade Ferguson to Doherty and play 5 at the back?

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Just because you don't know which Liverpool mid will score shouldn't mean you avoid both... That's horrific reasoning. Just suck it up. You will get it right some weeks, you will get it wrong some weeks. But not having either is worse because they are pretty much guaranteed 220+ points each.

      1. Reckoner.
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        TAA was only 11 points of Mane's total and 23 off Salah's and he's still improving.

        He has more ways of scoring points compared to Salah & Mane.

        Alison + TAA + Robertson = 20.5m
        Alison + TAA + Salah/Mane = 25.5m

        I just feel that moneys better use elsewhere.

        Also will save me spending points of chopping & changing defense too much.

        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I think Salah underperformed. I think he's closer to a 250+ point player maybe pushing 300 in a good season. TAA will also get 200+ but it's harder to predict his big hauls. Salah, you cap him at home and enjoy double figure returns. TAA could just as easily get a run of 6s and occasionally a 24 pointer away at Leicester. Point is, it's not as easy to predict a TAA mega haul.

          1. Reckoner.
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I've not doubt that Salah will most likely outscore TAA this season but that 5.0m is huge.

            I value 1.0m = 0.66 points, thats what I aim for, over 38 games that 125 points. I certainly don't think Salah will get 125 more points that TAA.

            Even if we use the captaincy, do I think Salah will get 63 more points that TAA? That will be close but then again I won't be captaining a Liverpool player each gameweek so halving the 125 doesn't come into it as much.

            1. Goonsquad245
              • 7 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Are you playing 5 at the back this season?

              1. Reckoner.
                • 12 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                Probably not but not ruling anything out at the moment.

                3 or 4 at the back at the moment.

    4. Krupinho
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Triple Pool defence and Laporte feels way too much money in defence.

      Maddison not to sure about, form dipped last season / injury. Maybe get Ziyech in for Maddison and downgrade one or two of those defenders

      Like the front 3 though

  11. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    How do i look?

    McCarthy
    TAA-VVD-Doherty-Saliba
    Auba-Bruno-Ziyech-Traore
    Werner-Mitro

    4.0,Bamford, Soucek, 4.0

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Not liking the Traore pick.

  12. Hits from the Bong
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    1st draft. Too much West Ham?

    Ryan (Button)
    TAA Doherty Taylor Vinagre Johnson
    Salah KDB Greenwood Soucek Bissouma
    Werner Ings Antonio

  13. @persecuted_by_mods
      3 years, 7 months ago

      The thing with Salah (compared to a Mane) is the massive IF, every week we watch him waste so many golden chances but IF 6-7 more trickle in or he buries them then he's clear, I don't think his stats have fallen off that much from the monster season if I recall correctly.

      Mane I don't think has that in him, he's gonna get the roughly the same amount as last season with a few more factoring in he was injured

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        xG is the daddy of stats and he's top.

        He got 19G10A in a season where things didn't tick for him.

        1. Greek Freak
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Indeed - the question for me is whether he'll have a similar season to last or whether he'll go back to matching or bettering his xG.

          1. Greek Freak
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Because if it's the former there will both be more economical ways to get 230ish points and potentially more exciting ways to spend 12.0 (Auba for example). But if it's the latter then he's set for another season in the 260+ region.

            1. @persecuted_by_mods
                3 years, 7 months ago

                I think now that everyone is similarly priced only KDB and Raheem can match him, Raheem gets rotated too much and I'm happy to have 2-3 big hitters. Going with Salah is a must for me, the thing to be wary about is away form if it matches last season

                1. Greek Freak
                  • 8 Years
                  3 years, 7 months ago

                  Bruno would be a no-brainer to match him if he gets 15 or so goals from penalties alone 😀 (no, I wouldn't like to see that happen)

                  1. @persecuted_by_mods
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Haha I deliberately left him off because of the penalty conundrum, personally I think he gets plenty again and will be value

                  2. Goonsquad245
                    • 7 Years
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    I'd implore you to look past the away results and look at the reasoning behind them. If you can see a good reason as to why he performed badly away (regression in stats, something genuine about style of play/'eye test' that is different when away vs home) then fine, but if you can't, it's probably just variance.

                    1. @persecuted_by_mods
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        No stats to back my opinion so feel free to ignore, for me the away form (when mane is there) is because of style of play. He seems to spend more time in the wide areas and tracking back which is natural compared to being at Anfield but that's just my opinion. I didn't spot it until it was too late but it seemed like away from home just to win the title he was willing to sacrifice the way he normally plays and Klopp was willing to use him as someone to draw 2-3 players away to let others get a goal and then take the W without blitzing the opponent

                        1. Goonsquad245
                          • 7 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          I'm not going to ignore that at all - it's sound reasoning from my perspective and definitely something to go on. Obviously would be nice if it was also borne out in the stats, but it's a lot of effort to single out the games/minutes they were both on the pitch, away from home, and compare that to everything else.

                          It needs something like that - simply looking at the results and seeing he scored fewer points doesn't cut the mustard for me.

                          It's certainly the best (and to be honest only - all I get is people parroting his actual FPL scores from the past x games over and over) explanation I've had as to why the results have been worse away from home with Mane.

                          1. @persecuted_by_mods
                              3 years, 7 months ago

                              I'm with you, last year is done now. He was my captain more than he should have been in away games so I watched closely it just felt there was too many games where he just didn't offer the normal Salah threat and to me that wasn't because he's suddenly crap at home or even variance I think it was a deliberate klopp tactic to make sure they don't lose the league. Hopefully play freer this time around and the variance if his finishing hopefully improves back in the positive and he's clear of everyone easily

                              Without even mentioning that Liverpool don't really win all that many penalties so even an increase on that would help

                2. @persecuted_by_mods
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    Spot on

                3. Hairy Potter
                  • 8 Years
                  3 years, 7 months ago

                  I don't care how many he misses as long as he scores consistently. I remember me and my mate watching and complaining about Andy Cole week in, week out squandering chance after chance at Newcastle, but he still scored 40+ goals that season in all competitions.

                  1. @persecuted_by_mods
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Exactly, can't look past Salah he's a player that can get 2 goals and an assist and you can still walk away thinking I could have had double that! Very few players give you that in fpl

                  2. Goonsquad245
                    • 7 Years
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    Nailed it.

                    Salah's ceiling is a lot, lot higher because of those stats.

                    (His stats have fallen pretty significantly compared to that first season, but he's still pretty much a joke compared to everyone else in the league. Sterling is the only one close)

                4. OPTA FPL
                  • 12 Years
                  3 years, 7 months ago

                  which should score more?

                  Aubameyang + Vinagre (maybe 230 + 110 = 340)

                  or

                  Martial + Robertson? (180 + 170 = 350) ?

                  1. @persecuted_by_mods
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      B

                    • The Sarjeant
                      • 10 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      I’m not sure, but you might rotate Vinagre so that could get you a few more points.

                    • El Presidente
                      • 4 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Pretty tight

                    • EL_FENOMENO
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      340 for A is the absolute best possible output whereas for B 350 is the not bare minimum but not maximum possible.

                      1. OPTA FPL
                        • 12 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Nice input, cheers

                  2. Christina.
                    • 14 Years
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    Covid 19 positive case in liverpool squad.

                    1. Christina.
                      • 14 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      ...at training camp

                      1. OPTA FPL
                        • 12 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        TAA??

                    2. Brosstan
                      • 9 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      TAA nailed as he's not there

                      1. Andy_Social
                        • 11 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Two weeks' quarantine. Plenty of time.

                    3. Now I'm Panicking
                      • 9 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Building up the antibodies before the season starts. Proactive thinking at its best.

                  3. Bury94
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 6 Years
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    Mccarthy (Nyland)
                    TAA, VVD, Vinagre (Taylor, Ferguson)
                    Sterling, Salah, Greenwood, Ziyech, Armstrong
                    Antonio, Martial (Davis)

                    Pretty happy with this. Fixtures will no doubt cause a few changes like

                    1. g40steve
                      • 6 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Very nice, just need fixtures to appear?

                      1. Bury94
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 6 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Yup!

                  4. Shatner's Bassoon
                    • 5 Years
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    Not sure why I'm seeing T. Soucek on benches in drafts.

                    If you've got him surely part of the appeal is scaldy set piece goals/assists which can come in absolutely any fixture.

                    Fixture proof Sous Chef!

                    1. @persecuted_by_mods
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        I learnt this lesson last year actually, I'd watch rivals start some absolute terrible players and each week I'd think well that's guaranteed a max of 2,2 but what they did with the money saved killed me off considering I had expensive players like Sterling (early season) also giving 2,2. I am happy to start Soucek everyone will make sacrifices somewhere and he's one of the best options for me in terms of getting points and saving money to spend elsewhere

                      • Holmes
                        • 10 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        BB time

                      • Brosstan
                        • 9 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Huge waste of money if benched.

                        1. Hairy Potter
                          • 8 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          Lol

                      • Goonsquad245
                        • 7 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        More likely to come in fixtures vs worse defences though.

                        1. Goonsquad245
                          • 7 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          (Obviously only relevant in a rotation)

                        2. Ze_Austin
                          • 5 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          Never bench Soucek

                          Here's why: https://bit.ly/2Ycu9Bj

                          1. Goonsquad245
                            • 7 Years
                            3 years, 7 months ago

                            Can you explain that a little further to me? I think I'm missing something

                            1. Ze_Austin
                              • 5 Years
                              3 years, 7 months ago

                              His goals and assists have come against any opponent, including Inter, Dortmund and Chelsea. In six starts against top 8, he scored once. In six starts against the rest, he scored twice (Newcastle and Watford): blanking against Norwich (West Ham scored 4), Villa, Burnley and Brighton (West Ham scored 3)

                              He can score anywhere, anytime, because of his set-piece activity, and if you rotate him with a defender while only starting Soucek for the "easy" games, you're likely to miss out on around half of his goals (note the games where he blanked)

                              He's far too unpredictable for a rotating pair, and also too good to just sit on the bench. He fits more into an FPL squad as a super cheap enabler in the XI

                              1. Goonsquad245
                                • 7 Years
                                3 years, 7 months ago

                                Your sample size is way, way too low for any sort of meaningful analysis around that I'm afraid.

                                1. Ze_Austin
                                  • 5 Years
                                  3 years, 7 months ago

                                  Yes, but this is what analysis from the available sample size yields

                                  What analysis or samples do you have for benching/rotating him?

                                  1. Goonsquad245
                                    • 7 Years
                                    3 years, 7 months ago

                                    The vast majority of players are more likely to score/assist in games against weaker opposition than stronger opposition, that's just a fact. I don't need analysis to support benching/rotating him vs the better sides, I need evidence to refute it, which isn't there at the moment in any real capacity. I've not seen anything to make me believe he's different to the majority of any other players in that respect.

                                    He is a very cheap player with some attacking threat, but I'm not quite comfortable playing him every single week. Therefore I have a 4.5 def as cover so I can rotate him out in the worst fixtures, and give him the 'benefit of the doubt' in the close calls.

                                    1. Ze_Austin
                                      • 5 Years
                                      3 years, 7 months ago

                                      That works, yes... But may I suggest prioritizing him over the 4.5 D?

                                      I mean, if Soucek has an "okay" game and the defender (an average defender, not one of the best like Vinagre or a new Lund) has a nice fixture, play Soucek. Does that sound just about right? Seems it might be a 50:50 thing, as clean sheets aren't that easy to predict without fans in the stadium either

                                      1. Goonsquad245
                                        • 7 Years
                                        3 years, 7 months ago

                                        You can indeed, and in most cases I would definitely give him the benefit of any doubt for sure.

                      • Klaren
                        • 6 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        If you watched the West Ham games post season, while he was a threat from set pieces, he was also a threat from open play vs weaker teams. He had loads of chances vs weaker teams like Norwich, Newcastle etc while his chances vs Chelsea (and goals but one unfairly dismissed) came from set pieces.

                        1. Ze_Austin
                          • 5 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          This is a valid reason to start any player you expect returns to tick over from throughout the season. This is the reason people don't bench 6.5m forwards from smaller teams

                          This reason is being ignored here because he's cheaper than he SHOULD be with his attack threat. Remember the many people who had Lund and Wan-B as second subs just because they were 4.0? Exactly this, being cheaper than what you'd normally expect from your regular starter, even though they're expected to outscore those more expensive regular starters

                          It's a bias

                          1. Goonsquad245
                            • 7 Years
                            3 years, 7 months ago

                            There is definitely something in this to be fair.

                            1. Ze_Austin
                              • 5 Years
                              3 years, 7 months ago

                              Fair warning: I'm not likely to start the season with Soucek, but did the analysis just because it's been a trending topic here. So I'm not even one of those deciding on whether to start/rotate him. Just commenting based on what I've seen from watching him play, his goal threat stats, and actual 19/20 history of returns

                              Can't go on much more than that for an objective analysis, I think

                              1. Goonsquad245
                                • 7 Years
                                3 years, 7 months ago

                                I agree with the bias against cheaper assets - it takes people a long time to realise when they're actually starting XI material most weeks.

                                1. Ze_Austin
                                  • 5 Years
                                  3 years, 7 months ago

                                  Thanks 🙂

                          2. Andy_Social
                            • 11 Years
                            3 years, 7 months ago

                            Right. Another example I brought up earlier is Vinagre. People are talking about rotating him because he's 4.5. If he was 5.5 Boly you wouldn't bench him. Take Vinny and Sushi as lucky with the price but they should start the vast majority of games, only sitting out games against the really big boys.

                    2. Hairy Potter
                      • 8 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Not seeing much love for Rashford. Now classed as a mid and Martial classed as a forward so thought he'd be the more popular of the two.

                      1. The Sarjeant
                        • 10 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        I think people like Bruno and Greenwood more.

                      2. Shatner's Bassoon
                        • 5 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Fact he's lost pens is a big drag factor. Emergence of Greenwood as well. For 2m less you're getting someone playing pretty much in the same position who looks just as likely to offer returns.

                        1. Hairy Potter
                          • 8 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          Fair point. I think I'll have Greenwood depending on Man Utd transfers and fixtures..

                          Maybe it's more seeing Martial in quite a few teams that has surprised me rather a lack of Rashford.

                      3. amitmishr
                        • 8 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        United unlikely to buy anyone this window and I think front 4 are already jaded and tired. Only bruno is an option due to penalties.

                        May be some deadline purchase may happen, but then that is true for all teams, except liverpool, who are settled

                    3. The Sarjeant
                      • 10 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      I was a bit skeptical of going with Werner from the beginning, but this article has me a lot more interested! 😆

                      1. Zimo
                        • 5 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Same 😆 just switched martial to werner 😛

                        1. The Sarjeant
                          • 10 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          Trouble is, I’m going cheaper upfront. It’d mean changing my team a lot.

                          1. Andy_Social
                            • 11 Years
                            3 years, 7 months ago

                            Werner, Mitro, 4.5 fodder is a viable outlay, I'd say.

                    4. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
                      • 7 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      If Brewster joins another PL club on loan it’d be a dream!

                      Leno 4m

                      TAA Vinagre Taylor Ayling Ferguson

                      Salah Auba KDB Bruno Soucek

                      Adams Brewster Davis

                      1. Andy_Social
                        • 11 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Uh, no. That front line would still be a disaster and early WC.

                    5. jtreble
                      • 7 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Will Luke Thomas be nailed at left back at LEI if Chilwell leaves?

                      1. The Sarjeant
                        • 10 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        I’m sure they’d invest some of the money into a new LB.

                      2. goriuanx
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Probably Jamal Lewis.

                      3. jtreble
                        • 7 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Thanks all for your replies.

                      4. Old Man
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Luke Thomas is a very promising player for us. From what I've seen I certainly think he's better than Jamal Lewis.

                    6. Champions League Varane
                      • 5 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Suggestions all?

                      Ryan Button

                      Trent Dallas Viangre Ferguson Taylor

                      Kdb salah greenwood Pereira
                      Soucek

                      Werner Tony Mitrovic

                      1. Ghost Ship
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        I have a similar amount of 4.5 defenders and am worried i will be restructuing pretty quickly in order to improve that defence.

                    7. Gav
                      • 14 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Folks considering Alex McCarthy,

                      Do we think Højbjerg's departure will negativly impact their CS potential? I didn't really follow Soton that much so would be keen to know what others think.

                      1. goriuanx
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        They've signed Salisu (CB) and are now trying to sign McKennie to replace Hojbjerg.

                      2. Brosstan
                        • 9 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        I think he's the best 4.5 because he plays for the best team and I don't see any value in overthinking it

                      3. Andy_Social
                        • 11 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        I'm not worried. I'll look at fixtures and see who keeps Arsenal goal in Commy Shield to decide on my 4.5 keeper. Between Martinez, McCarthy and Ryan.

                        1. The Sarjeant
                          • 10 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          This is what I’m doing. I’m interested in the Villa keepers too, if they don’t sign anyone. They’ll have to have great fixtures though! 😆

                          1. Andy_Social
                            • 11 Years
                            3 years, 7 months ago

                            I wouldn't pay over 4.0 for a Villa keeper. Mind you, I wouldn't play him either 😉

                            1. The Sarjeant
                              • 10 Years
                              3 years, 7 months ago

                              Heaton’s a save machine though! I’m not that interested. Only if they have superb fixtures and the others are a bit iffy.

                      4. Ghost Ship
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Think the only direction is up.

                    8. disarrays11
                      • 7 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      A) Kane & Ziyech

                      or

                      B) Werner & Son

                      Thanks!

                      1. The Sarjeant
                        • 10 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        B

                    9. Jdpz
                      • 4 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Suggestions all?

                      McCarthy
                      TAA - Vinagre - Saliba
                      KDB - Son - Foden - Greenwood
                      Antonio - Aguero - Werner

                      subs: Ryan, Soucek, Ayling, Ferguson

                      to change something?

                    10. sirmorbach
                      • 7 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Do you think Ward-Prowse is worth the 1.0 over Soucek?

                      1. Egg noodle
                        • 14 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Not at all

                      2. Ghost Ship
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        No

                      3. Now I'm Panicking
                        • 9 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        If Southampton have FUL, avl, WBA and West Ham have mnc, LIV, che then maybe

                      4. Andy_Social
                        • 11 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Not when Armstrong is 0.5m more than Soucek.

                      5. Ghost Ship
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        But let’s me honest both are bottom of barrel.

                      6. Gav
                        • 14 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Worth looking into Soucek's stats.

                        As a WHU fan, i remember watchibg the Newcastle 2-2 game and after we replaced Lanzini with Noble, Soucek had license to get forward from open play.

                        If we set up with Rice, Noble and Soucek he could do well as he'll have a platform to be more of a box to box player, what would concern me a bit from an FPL perpective is if his role changes with the like of Lanzini or going say 2 up top, you'll have a 5.0 midfileder who has as much attacking threat as certain centre backs.

                        I think Rice, Noble and Soucek will be our first choice for what ist worth.

                        1. sirmorbach
                          • 7 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          That's very helpful, mate. I really do appreciate it.

                        2. Andy_Social
                          • 11 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          Cheers, nice one

                      7. Sune
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 8 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        I believe so, yes.

                    11. mattyb09
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      RMT please 🙂

                      Ryan
                      TAA - Tierney - Taylor - Vinagre
                      Salah - KDB - Ziyech - Willian - Foden
                      Werner

                      Button; Bamford, Brewster, Ferguson

                      1. Ghost Ship
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        There are 4 bankers (if Werner is included). I would squeeze some cash out of the others - bamford????? - and upgrade someone.

                        1. mattyb09
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 5 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          Bamford had 16 goals last season in the Championship. He is the lone striker in a solid Leeds attack until they sign someone.

                    12. Bubz
                      • 10 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Werner is straight in my GW1 team. He's an absolute beast. 9.5m is extremely good value. But if he does end up flopping, he can be shifted out to a Martial/Aguero/Kane fairly easily

                      1. sirmorbach
                        • 7 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        This. That's what I'm going with.

                      2. goriuanx
                        • 13 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Exactly this.

                        My only slight worry is Lampard playing him LW while Pulisic is injured.

                    13. sirmorbach
                      • 7 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Does it look like a good team?

                      McCarthy / Ryan (rotation)
                      TAA, Robbo, Doherty, Saliba / Ayling
                      KDB, Bruno, Greenwood, Soucek / Gordon
                      Werner, Jimi / 4.5

                      Could downgrade Ryan and Ayling, maybe Robbo to VVD even, and upgrade Gordon to a 5.5/6.0. Or something else. What do you suggest, lads?

                      1. bitm2007
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        3 years, 7 months ago

                        Looks good if McCarthy / Ryan and Saliba / Ayling rotate well, the later shouldn't be a problem because there are plenty of clubs have playing 4.5m defenders, keepers may be trickier. Personally I'm thinking a 5.0m (maybe Ramsdale) and a 4.0m.

                        1. sirmorbach
                          • 7 Years
                          3 years, 7 months ago

                          Thank, you mate! Do you think Patricio/Doherty is too much Wolves?

                          1. Andy_Social
                            • 11 Years
                            3 years, 7 months ago

                            I don't. Even triple with Jimi is good. They're a squad that don't rotate and have no Euro games, so all 3 could quite possibly play 38 games.

                            1. sirmorbach
                              • 7 Years
                              3 years, 7 months ago

                              Thanks, Andy, you are always helpful!

                    14. Shoplifters United
                      • 11 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      Currently on this. Thoughts?

                      Ryan (Nyland)
                      TAA, Doherty, Vinagre (Taylor, Saliba)
                      Soucek, Aubameyang, Greenwood, De Bruyne, Ziyech
                      Werner, Anotonio (Davis)