Pro Pundits - Tom

Identifying the non-‘big six’ clubs with the best early fixtures in 2020/21

One of the world’s best FPL managers, Tom Freeman (aka avfc82), looks at the favourable fixture runs of clubs outside the ‘big six’.


Though football in the COVID-19 era looks and feels different, home advantage is still a thing.

Yes, there has been a slight drop in home win percentage across Europe’s top leagues but the change is not large and, for most clubs outside of the elite, targeting wins at the location you know best still makes the most sense.

So, with this in mind, what I’ve tried to do in this article is identify the teams outside of the traditional ‘big six’ who have the best runs of consecutive, winnable home matches that we can tap into – the types of games managers will be earmarking for three points.

I’ll then offer my thoughts on the stand-out assets from each of the clubs discussed. You’ll notice that I’ve tried to ensure there are a few reasonable away matches thrown in too and that all of the runs I highlight start no later than Gameweek 6. At this stage, there seems little point looking too far ahead, but if it proves popular, it’s something I might revisit further down the line.

Also, because of the type of fixture runs I’ve focused on, I’ve removed games against last season’s Premier League top eight from my analysis, which is worth remembering when viewing the data.



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1,088 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BNMC
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Last thing - what is the most you would pay for Havertz in FPL?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      8.5m

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      8

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      8 sounds about right

    4. Top 210 Club
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      9

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        A definite wait and see at that price.

    5. Nightrain_
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      ready to pay 8.5 for him but if 8.0, i'm a happy guy

    6. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      8.5-9

    7. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd love him to be 8.0 but I expect 8.5

  2. davies
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on starting with Ferguson?

    I won’t need to play him and will save a potential transfer down the line....

    1. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Mitchell is my pick

    2. Top 210 Club
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Ferguson is inj

      1. davies
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yes but I don’t need to play him and he’ll be first choice when fit

        1. Sharkytect
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Any idea when he will be fit?

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No brainer, why pay extra 0.5 for 5th defender

      1. Eleven Hag
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        This season a 4.5 could be useful as 5th def for rotation with the other two 4.5s most going with?

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          If playing 3 at back, 4 nailed and one deadwood is fine imo. Atleast until WC, we don't really need to rotate.

          1. Eleven Hag
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            With a 5 or 5.5 mid and Mitrovic, 4 at the back could come in handy too in some GWs

      2. davies
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        As opposed to going with Mitchell/Johnson etc mate

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Ah ok. He is atleast better than those options.

    4. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      If you're gonna pick a 4m defender and not gonna play him at all, you can try Buur from Wolves there's a small chance he will play in Doherty's position.

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I'm starting with Mitchell and intend to switch to Ferguson when he's ready/picked to start. Doesn't have to be immediate as it's for bench duty - just when I have a spare free transfer.

        1. ivantys
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah same here but I probably won't even change him even if he's not first choice anymore, I'll just leave him as a dead weight. Or when I use my wild card in week 9 or 10.

  3. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    If anyone looking to setup a draft league, please share the code and time

    Thank you

  4. GE
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Ziyech and Dier (3-5-2)
    B) Ings and Justin (3-4-3)

    1. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

  5. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    anyone else not too fussed about their team at the moment and waiting until a few days before the deadline to properly sort it out ?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      o/

      Still haven't made a 1st draft.

    2. Sharkytect
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I am on draft number 15

      Not as fussed as previous seasons!

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      0/

      Already bored, sigh... Its too simple!

    4. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Too much of not knowing which players will be available as well as new signings coming in.

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        yip, transfers by clubs will kill most drafts ... can’t see the point of building a team yet with fillers such as ... like Mitchell, Brewster, Davis, Justin, Saliba, Steer, Nyland etc, even the likes of Vinagre, ASM, Lamptey, Adams are tricky picks
        ... when you have little idea yet if they will be starters

    5. The Wanton Trader
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I actually really love my team.

      I won’t be changing anything to it, unless I have too...

    6. mattrobb
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yep

      Could easily be injuries on international duty... frankly expect them as national teams are a bit clueless about injury prevention

      Have a draft, but nothing nailed

    7. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm fussed.
      But ready to accept that it will change once we get close to GW 1.
      Too many variables.
      Transfers + Corona + International friendlies etc

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        how many players do you have from my list above ? 😉

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Vinagre & Adams 🙂

  6. Kobayashi
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    The Tottenham 'All or Nothing' Amazon documentary is making me look at ways to bring more Spurs players like Alli into my team. Not sure if this is a good thing or not.

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Lucky it wasn't a Villa documentary.

      1. Kobayashi
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        John McGinn would be in my starting XI by the end of the first episode.

      2. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Grealish is cheaper at least ....

    2. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Alli ownership has definitely increased.

      1. Kobayashi
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Could also be due to Ziyech's injury, though.

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Not by much - still a really great differential at 2.1%

  7. Gabbiadini
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy
    TAA | Vinagre | Justin/4.5
    Auba(KDB) | Salah(Fernandes) | Alli | Barnes(Pulisic) | Armstrong
    Werner | Ings

    Nyland | Brewster | Mitchell | Johnson(Taylor)

    GW2: Salah to Fernandes (Barnes to Pulisic could be completed in GW2 also but will likely delay due to Pulisic's current injury and fixture)
    GW3: Barnes to Pulisic & Auba to KDB

    0.5 has been left ITB for potential price rises to achieve transfers.
    If no money is lost then the money can be used to get 4.0 to Taylor in GW4 in readiness for Burnley's fixtures v Newcastle & West Brom.
    Pulisic is of particular interest in GW3, avoids Liverpool (GW2) and greater initial fixtures of West Brom and Crystal Palace.

    Thoughts would be very much appreciated 🙂

    1. Oi! Shadders!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Looks really good. The only thing I question is whether you could have Taylor now and keep him benched, rather than have to make such an annoying transfer later. One of my aims is to have my defence set for the next 8-10 weeks (in theory) so that I can focus transfers on the attack.
      Otherwise, really nice.

      1. Gabbiadini
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Apologies I was slightly incorrect, I don't have 0.5 ITB in GW1.
        I get 0.5 ITB after GW3 (my ideal upgrades), the money can then be used to get Taylor potentially in GW4.

        1. Oi! Shadders!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          In that case, leave it as it is. The majority of your squad looks great.

          1. Gabbiadini
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            thanks for the feedback.

  8. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who do you think would be the pick of the united attackers?

    I think it’s gonna be Mason Greenwood at that price.

    Feel he’s going to have a season like the vardy/Mahrez title winning campaign wherein he scores loads while being priced modestly.

    1. R.C
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nah Sancho will be joining United

      1. The Wanton Trader
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        How much do you think he would be?

        9ish?

    2. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      But am not sure he will get starts consisently, we will sign either Sancho or Brooks for the RW

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        You can drop Brooks from that list now.

        1. Silecro
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Sancho is "on the verge of signing" for like a month now, if not longer. You know it will not happen. Ed will not give 108 mil

          1. Amey
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            That doesn't mean Brooks would sign though. He'd cost 40m +.
            Can't see that happening myself

    3. Red Red Robins
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Depends if Sancho comes in

    4. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Greenwood amazing value if he is a regular starter. Can't ignore Bruno either who seems a tad underpriced. Martial and Rashford look about the right prices.

    5. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Bruno Fernandes

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Bruno and in form Rashford. He wasn't as clinical after injury (restart) as he normally is. Difficult to have both for gw2 though.

    6. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Bruno the pick for me and feel he is underpriced by 1m. Greenwood immense value. Martial a good price despite the repositioning. Rashford is the one I am not so sure on. Can't see him taking 6 penalties again this season.

    7. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Pretty sure it's gonna be just bruno and martial that are must haves in united's team.

      1. mrelpea
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Agreed. I’m starting with Bruno on the bench for GW1 and will be watching martial to see how he gets on. Don’t see Greenwood getting as much time on the pitch

        1. ivantys
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          You won't want to skip martial for week 2 though.

          1. mrelpea
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Yeah I know what you mean, it’s a bloody tasty fixture. I ummed and aaahd for so long about which united player to start with, benching/transfer options etc for getting city/united players in and can’t get past Fernandes. I have Werner and ings and 0.5 itb so have option of going for martial if he becomes a must have

    8. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm on him because that's all I can afford but I think all this XG stuff doesn't matter so much for him because he's a good finisher. Rashford tends to blaze wildly but I don't have that concern with Greenwood.

  9. balint84
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Rodák, Fabri or Betinelli is the no1 keeper at Fulham?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Rodak I head - decent shot stopper too but don't think they'll keep many clean sheets

      1. balint84
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        would be my secondary keeper. I don't want to bother keepers. He will be good if my no1 against City or Pool

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Who is your first choice?

          1. balint84
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Ramsdale

            1. Miguel Sanchez
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Cool, I said I'd never go down the GK rotation path again but this is what a Ryan and McCarthy rotation could look like across 38 GWs.

              cpa, new, bur, WBA, cpa, WBA, avl, NEW, avl, MAN, bha, SHU, ful, SHU, ful, WHU, WOL, lee, lee, FUL, AVL, man, new, AVL, CPA, wba, shu, BHA, NEW, BUR, wba, CPA, shu, LEE, wol, FUL, LEE, whu

              Inevitably a lot of benched points in the mix but looks mighty tempting to me written like that and 0.5 cheaper than Ramsdale/Rodak

              1. ivantys
                • 3 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                This could work but I'm just not pleased with Southampton and Brighton's defences as both kept only 9 clean sheets each last season. Those clean sheets here could overlap or be kept against a top 6 side which you never expect.

              2. balint84
                • 7 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                Maybe I would play Ramsdale against thebig4 anyway, but what if he got injuried. still got 1.5itb. Your plan looks good on paper, but the benched points will cause more stress/funtime I reckon.

  10. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    When will the first video of FPL Blackbox be out today?

    Any mods around?

  11. Fpl-king
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hey all

    For sure my question would have been covered But I don’t have much time Atm to do any research and stressing with the fpl season soon to kick off

    What is everyone’s plan regarding the city & Utd players what strategy are people planning to go for ?
    Chips? Etc

    Any help

    Thanks in advance

  12. ivantys
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Why is nobody picking Jack Robinson I'm curious

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      because he isn’t nailed ?

      1. ivantys
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I actually find Vinagre or Justin to be as risky if not more risky than him

          1. ivantys
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Yeah I probably should just go back to my draft in a week's time.

  13. Jay Arell
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Nerd some advice on this one:

    A) Doherty, Son, Adams + 0.5 ITB
    B) Dier, Alli, Ings

    Cheers!

  14. SergeyNikiforenko
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hi, someone tried putting all 3 lpool def in team, does it make sense?
    Ryan(nygard)
    TAA, VVD,Robbo (Mitchell, Johnson)
    Armstrong, Son, Alli, Barnes,Greenwod
    Kane(C), Ings(2week to martial), Mitro.

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      3 Liverpool defense can work over long term but I'm not sure about triple Spurs attack.

    2. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Your team's decent but doherty over alli for me.

  15. akhilrajau
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A. 3-4-3
    McCarthy
    TAA, Justin,Vinagre
    Salah,Auba,Son,Saint-Maximin
    Ings,Werner, Mitrovic
    Bench: Nyland, Oriol Romeu,Mitchel,Johnson

    B. 3-5-2/4-4-2
    McCarthy
    TAA, Doherty, Vinagre
    Salah,Auba,Son,Saint-Maximin
    Ings,Werner
    Bench: Nyland, Oriol Romeu,Mitchel,Johnson, Davis

    1. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A is better, I rather have mitrovic than having a blank forward, although at 6m I would suggest jordan ayew instead.

      1. akhilrajau
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        K thanks. Actually i am planning for martial and one city mid in gw 2 and 3

        1. ivantys
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Mitro swap martial? If so then I would go with Ayew for week 1 as I don't expect mitro to score against arsenal if you saw how well arsenal defended in the CS.

          1. akhilrajau
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            No. I agree with u for gw 1. I think to get in martial for Werner, can't get martial with mitro price or need to think other united options.

  16. TKC07
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is Matty Cash (AVL) a good pick as rotating DEF if priced at 4.5?

  17. Adambailey7
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    When switching to man. It’s assets. Anyone thinking of sterling over KDB?

    1. Reeceviljoen
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Some days

  18. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A. Son + Mitrovic

    Or

    B. Vardy + Soucek

  19. andrewchy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    anyone care to share their draft pick priorities?

    1. Offside
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Just researching players and trying things out.

  20. Silecro
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I have a question. Is there any consensus here regarding overall rank evaluation, something like..
    Top 1k - Awesome
    Top 10k - Great
    Top 50k - Decent
    Less than 100k - meh..
    I have finished last season at 32k (my personal best ranking up to date, third season playing) and I really dont know where to place that in regards to the serious players that I consider you all here on FFS.
    Cheers!

  21. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Preferred Option

    (A) Doherty Barnes Adams

    (B) Davies ASM Ings

  22. Offside
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Do you think Justin and Vinagre will play?

    What about James at Chelsea and Maitland Niles?

    I noticed Ziyech was picking James in advanced positions, he’s crossing. But will he play?

    Might just go for Walker Peters and someone like Coady.

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Vinagre will play as the Ghoulam news has subsided now. Justin not so sure with Castagne's signing. U can look at 4m Kilman or Buur from Wolves..

  23. Offside
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy Nyland
    TAA, Doherty, Vinagre, Walker Peters, Mitchel
    Salah, Auba, St Max, Saka, Bissouna
    Werner, Ings, Mitro

    1.5 on bench - Upgrade Ings to Martial - sit on bench. Probably switch Salah to Fernandes gw2. 2 utd v Palace.

    Doherty - will Dier play. If so could add 0.5 to Walker Peters get James or get 5.5 for Tierney/Ake
    Saka - not many 5.5 - Armstrong - so better 6.5 - Traore, Foden

    Not sure on Werner, unproven, 8.5 Jiminez, then use 1.0 to upgrade Mitrovic who wont be that much of a threat.

  24. Offside
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy
    TAA
    Dier
    Vinagre
    Salah
    Auba
    St Max
    Traore
    Ings
    Martial
    Jiminez

  25. Pommie22
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hi guys 1st attempt at FPL so any thoughts appreciated.
    McCarthy(Nyland)
    TAA,Doherty,Vinagre,Egan(Struijk)
    Salah,Aub,Son(Biss,Stephens)
    Werner,DCL,Mitro

    Alt- Son,Strunk for Barnes,Arlington +1.5 ITB

  26. Pommie22
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Sorry predictive txt is a #*$¥ Son for Barnes and Ayling for Struijk