Scout Notes
14 December 2020 631 comments
davidwardale davidwardale
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Leicester City 3-0 Brighton and Hove Albion

  • Goals: James Maddison (£7.0m) x2, Jamie Vardy (£10.3m)
  • Assists: Vardy x2, James Justin (£4.9m)
  • Bonus: Maddison x3, Justin x2, Vardy x1

James Maddison (£7.0m) hit the highest score of Gameweek 12 as Brighton were demolished in 17 minutes of deadly first-half action by Leicester.

The visitors had just enough time to create one excellent chance, which forced Kasper Schmeichel (£5.5m) into a fine save to deny Danny Welbeck (£5.5m), before the carnage kicked in.

Maddison fired through a crowd to open the scoring after 26 minutes, Jamie Vardy (£10.3m) doubled the lead 14 minutes later and the England midfielder then curled home a beautiful third goal as half-time approached.

Home Sweet Home

Times have been hard at the King Power for Leicester this season – the Brighton win was only their third in six attempts at home, which seems well-timed with Everton and Manchester United to host over the festive period.

Maddison, who recorded a season’s-best 16 points, could be a tidy way to celebrate Christmas. He’s clearly an early pick of many as he’s currently in the top 10 for Gameweek 13 transfers-in.

His manager, Brendan Rodgers, did reveal an issue that might mean his minutes are managed in the near future, however:

He has such quality. What makes it even better is he hardly trained at all this week. He had an issue with his knee, so we took him out of our midweek game.

Maddison has started the last five league matches, but an injury-hit early campaign means he has just 612 minutes under his belt –  Youri Tielemans (£6.4m) has 1,080 – and he is owned by only 3.4% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.

Considerably more popular is Vardy (29.2%), who ran Maddison close on the night with a 13-point haul which included assists for both his team-mate’s goals.

The forward was clinical, scoring from one big chance and hitting the post (from a very tight angle) with another. He had only 20 touches all match, but still produced a fourth double-digit display of the season.

Vardy has now blanked in just three of the 11 matches he’s played in, and while the Foxes’ immediate schedule is tough – Spurs away on top of those Everton and Man U matches –  both he and the team tend to thrive against the ‘bigger’ sides.

Backline Bonus

Leicester kept only their fourth clean sheet of the season against Brighton, thanks to Schmeichel’s excellence and the Seagulls’ now customary profligacy in front of goal.

The big winners in all of that were the 23.1% of bosses with James Justin (£4.9m) in their teams.

The wing-back was having a quiet enough night of it until Rodgers told him to switch sides and go up against the unit that is Dan Burn (£4.3m).

Justin conceded about three feet in height to his rival, but made up for it by having roughly twice the pace, an attribute he used to set up Vardy’s goal – one of four chances he created – on the way to a season’s-best 11-point haul.

He is by far and away the team’s most productive defender in FPL this campaign – and also one of the cheapest.

Investing in Leicester’s backline remains risky, however.

As well as a nasty injury list, the Foxes will now be without Jonny Evans (£5.5m) for the midweek match against Everton as he picked up his fifth yellow card of the season on Sunday.

Brighton Crock

Brighton’s most popular outfield player, Tariq Lamptey (£4.8m and 11.2%), missed the match as a precaution – he has a hamstring issue – according to boss Graham Potter.

The fact this was the biggest FPL news of the night for the Seagulls spoke volumes about their performance, which was neatly summed up by their manager:

We have no complaints with the result. There were some big moments for us before they scored and we were playing quite well, but the goal affected us.

Brighton’s next five fixtures (ful SHU whu ARS WOL) are okayish, but their form is anything but, with just one win since Gameweek 2 and one clean sheet all season.

As a result, even the low-priced, high-paced Lamptey is not looking so attractive anymore.

He should be back for the trip to Fulham, at least, with Potter saying on Monday:

Leicester City XI (3-4-2-1): Schmeichel, Fofana, Evans, Fuchs; Albrighton, Tielemans, Ndidi (Mendy 80), Justin; Pérez (Barnes 62), Maddison (Praet 75); Vardy. 

Brighton XI (4-4-2): Ryan, Veltman, Dunk, Burn, White; Bissouma (Mac Allister 72), March, Gross, Jahanbakhsh (Alzate 55); Maupay, Welbeck (Connolly 62).

Arsenal 0-1 Burnley

  • Goals: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.5m) own goal
  • Assists: Ashley Westwood (£5.3m)
  • Bonus: Nick Pope (£5.4m) x3, Matt Lowton (£4.4m) x2, Ben Mee (£4.9m) x1

A Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.5m) own goal heaped the misery on ten-man Arsenal as Burnley’s second win of the season took them out of the bottom three.

The Gunners midfielder’s form is entirely in keeping with that of his team, although matters were clearly not helped on Sunday by the second-half dismissal of Granit Xhaka (£5.2m) for grabbing Ashley Westwood (£5.3m) round the throat.

But the stats don’t lie – Arsenal have now lost four straight league games at home for the first time in 61 years and they’ve won just once since Gameweek 4.

Out Of Position, Out Of Sorts

Aubameyang’s reclassification as an FPL midfielder should have been the stuff of Fantasy gold this year.

But even such a class performer can’t thrive in a side so lacking in guile and a cutting edge.

He’s managed a mere two goals in 12 appearances and has blanked for five straight matches.

The Gabon international was joint-top for attempts (four) against Burnley, but visiting keeper Nick Pope (£5.4m) was only truly stretched by an Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m) drive.

That was one of six saves Pope made to earn him the maximum bonus point award and an 11-point haul for his 9.1% ownership.

Feel The Burnley

Significant investment in Burnley assets has been based, in Pope’s case, on pedigree.

Otherwise, it’s been down to the bargain bucket price (if minimal minutes) of both Jimmy Dunne (£3.9m and 6.1%) and Dale Stephens (£4.3m and 5.1%).

But Sean Dyche’s men are starting to re-find their Burnley mojo, with three clean sheets from their last five matches.

Matt Lowton (£4.4m) and Ben Mee (£4.9m) led the way against Arsenal, earning bonus points for their clearances, blocks and interceptions (CB) tallies of 12 and 13 respectively, and it’s no coincidence that their recent run of shut-outs has coincided with the return of Mee to the team in Gameweek 8.

Dyche was in no doubt as to the impact Xhaka’s dismissal had on the game, however:

Arsenal just got their feel in the game until the sending off. In the modern game – it is so soft now, the modern game – it has to be given.

Burnley won’t be able to rely on such indiscretions (or Aubameyang’s eye for an own goal) over the next few matches, but their schedule does suggest more clean sheets are there for the taking.

The Clarets will travel to Aston Villa and Leeds – two teams that have struggled at home this season – and entertain low-scoring Wolves and low-hanging Sheffield United and Fulham.

Lowton, or the ever-present Charlie Taylor (£4.4m), look to be the cheapest ways to tap into that defensive potential.

Face Like A Smacked Arsenal

‘Potential’ was not a word on the grimly-pursed lips of Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta post-match:

We threw it away, we were in control of the game. When you give the red card away the game changes. I don’t know what it is we have to do to score a goal.

That last comment looks particularly damning for a manager who has made the side more disciplined at the expense of much of its creativity.

Fantasy-wise, their festive fixtures don’t offer much prospect of points as the Gunners will be up against Southampton and Chelsea (both at home) and Everton away.

And in their current form, even trips to Brighton and West Brom either side of New Year’s Eve look beyond them unless Arteta sacrifices solidity for some semblance of flair.

Arsenal XI (4-3-3): Leno; Bellerin (Maitland-Niles 74), Holding, Gabriel, Tierney; Xhaka, Elneny, Saka; Willian (Nketiah 82), Lacazette (Ceballos 60), Aubameyang.

Burnley XI (4-4-2): Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Westwood, Brownhill, McNeil, Brady; Rodriguez (Barnes 58), Wood (Vydra 70).

Lessons learned from FPL Gameweek 12

631 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Pacer.
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    PLAY UP POMPEY!

  2. Gross Blank Point
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Front 7 of
    Son, KDB, Salah, Grealish
    DCL, Bamford, Wilson
    2 nailed defenders Zouma and Chilwell
    Struggling to pick other def, keeper out of McCarthy, Vestergaard v's Arsenal and Martinez, Konsa v's Burnley
    Kilman isn't considered.
    Double up or mix them lol

    1. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Martinez & Vestergard / KWP

      1. Gross Blank Point
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        Yeh, the mix is what my head says, need to lock it in soon rather than overthink it!!

  3. AD2110
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Best way to fund Bruno here?

    A) Jota + Cancelo --> Bruno + 3.9m
    B) Jota + Robbo --> Bruno + James (leaves a lot of money on bench)
    C) Jota + Chilwell + Bellerin —> Bruno + James + 3.9m

    Team below:
    McCarthy, Steer
    Robbo, Chilwell, Cancelo, Coufal, Bellerin
    KDB, Son, Grealish, xxx, Stephens
    Kane, Wilson, Watkins

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      A

  4. waltzingmatildas
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Bench one of
    A) Chilwell
    B) James
    C) ayling

    And one of
    1) soucek
    2) welbeck

    1. Karan_G14
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Ayling
      Soucek

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        Yeah that's what I'm on....doesn't feel right! Thanks

    2. Sid1891
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      C2

  5. OverTinker
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Martinez (Forster)
    Robbo Chilwell Dias (Dallas, Dunne)
    Salah KDB Son Grealish (Burke)
    DCL Adams Bamford

    1 FT and 0.4 in the bank. What should I do here?

    1. Salah to Bruno for free
    2. Robbo + Son to Bruno + James (for -4)
    3. Save

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      I did a - 4 last week to get salah, kdb and Bruno in. It might be the wrong move but it certainly takes the worry out of it!
      Tldr: B

      1. OverTinker
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        thats what I think. A big haul hurts more than anything

    2. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Other option is just to do Robertson -> James this week given fixtures.

      Definitely not 1 for me anyway!

      1. OverTinker
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        feels james and bruno can cover the hit together this GW

        1. TheDragon
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 6 days ago

          It’s such a tricky choice as the 2 players we would sell can obviously haul (the fact they play each other this week does help mitigate it a bit though)

          1. OverTinker
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 6 days ago

            i am up for the gamble this season.

          2. Mr. O'Connell
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 6 days ago

            I'm doing something v similar to B (Robbo and Son to Taylor and Bruno). Werner > Kane the week after.

            Bruno is the (or at least 2nd) stand out obvious pick this week and a very good long term option.

            As for the hit paying off immediately - you'd be very unlucky if both Robbo and Son haul.

  6. TheDragon
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Robertson & Son -> James & Fernandes -4

    Yay or Nay?

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Yes

    2. OverTinker
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      exactly same question
      the other route is salah to bruno

      1. TheDragon
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        Ye ...
        I’m definitely not doing Salah -> Bruno

    3. waltzingmatildas
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Yay

    4. Karan_G14
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Looks good

  7. tinear
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Salah to KdB or save?

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Save

      1. tinear
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        West Brom def is one of the most brittle now. KdB is not a good option?

        1. tinear
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 6 days ago

          I meant worst defence

    2. Sid1891
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Save

  8. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    How important is it to have a good 5th Mid? Is Soucek worth the extra 0.5 over Bissouma?

    1. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Yes he is (I’m an unhappy Bissouma owner)

    2. Sid1891
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Looks like it
      Will be my 5th when wildcard

    3. Pacer.
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Depends whether autosubs coincide with him getting points. Sounds obvious but it's true. You could easily miss all his goals and have spent 0.4 on nothing

  9. Rasping Drive
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    “Face like a smacked Arsenal”

    Haha, bravo sir!

  10. ajk1211
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Jota Pulisic Salah KDB Biss
    Kane Bamford Watkins

    Pick one

    1) Jota -> Bowen
    2) Jota/Pulisic -> Bruno/C Jones (-4)
    3) Jota/Pulisic -> Bowen/Grealish

    1. ajk1211
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      #3 would be for -4

    2. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      2

    3. waltzingmatildas
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      2

    4. Kun Tozser
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Fixtures scream 3

    5. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      3

  11. Sid1891
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Martinez
    Chilwell Lamptey Cancelo
    KDB Fernandes Grealish Mahrez
    Vardy Bamford DCL

    KWP Taylor 4.3

    Anything worth a hit?
    0.9 itb

    Thanks for suggestions

    1. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Good to go

      1. Sid1891
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        Thanks Dragon

  12. Karan_G14
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Martinez
    Chilwell Dias Lamptey
    Salah KDB Bruno Grealish Jota
    DCL Bamford

    (Steer Brewster Kilman Mitchell)
    1 FT & 1.2m

    A) Jota ➡️ Bowen
    B) Jota ➡️ Lookman/Soucek

    B frees up money to upgrade Kilman to Robbo/TAA or Grealish to Son.

    Thoughts?

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      B soucek

    2. waltzingmatildas
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      B

    3. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      B with Soucek 100%

  13. Paganoi
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Yay or Nay?

    For free:
    Mahrez > KdB
    Vardy > Any 7.0 or less (have DCL and Bamford already)

    1. baines is god
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      I'd do it, and would recommend Callum Wilson

    2. Sid1891
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Tough one and side ways in my opinion

  14. baines is god
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Pick 2 to start

    Gros, Son, Targett (already have Konsa starting) and Zaha

    1. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Well obviously start Son!!!

  15. Parsnips
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    I’m actually thinking that Jota > Raphinha could be a good move. Or should I just go with Bowen or JWP?

    1. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      All pretty bad / uninspiring picks

      That was always the issue with Jota, there is no decent pick at the price in midfield so it’s Soucek and bank the cash or 2 transfers to get rid of Jota

  16. SomeoneKnows
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Bench one:

    A) Bednarek
    B) Dallas

  17. Sir_Durs8
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Bamford or Watkins for next 3 games?

    Wildcarding in GW16

    1. Sid1891
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Bamford

  18. Warbling Wendy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Martinez Mccarthy
    Chilwell, Lamptey, Targett, KWP, Lewis
    Salah, KDB, Fernandes, Son, Bissouma
    DCL, Wilson, Bamford

    2FT, no idea what to do with them, 0.0m in the bank

    Wouldn't normally ask blindly for help, but the only thing I can think to do is downgrade one of the goalkeepers to the 4m understudy of the goalkeeper I keep, so I have those funds in the bank for a move I might want to make the week after. Anything jump out as a obvious weakness or a move to make?

  19. FPLtfs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Son and Jota -> KdB and 4.3 mid? If yes I’ll play Soucek regularly.

  20. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Martinez (Steer)
    Robertson, James, KWP (Coufal, Mitchell)
    Salah, Son, Mahrez, Grealish (Stephens)
    Kane, DCL, Bamford

    2FT, 1.7 in bank

    Mahrez & Robertson --->
    (a) KDB & Dier
    (b) Bruno & Dias

  21. SHOOTER MCGINN
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Liverpool Spurs score predictions?

    Thinking about selling Robbo to free up cash but also think it could be 0-0 and I'd rather 2 transfers for the weekend.

  22. Timothy
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Ryan
    Chilwell Dallas Targett
    Grealish Zaha Son Bruno
    Bamford Kane Calvert-Lewin

    McCarthy Soucek Reguilon Semedo

    1FT & 3.4m

    I think Son -> KDB

    Yes or No?

    1. Sid1891
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Yeah, go ahead

  23. Nate(U)dog(ie)
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Apologies, repost from last article

    Can anyone advise me of a way to get Salah here? Bear in mind I'm planning on moving Vardy to Ings after this GW, I'm rolling this week's FT but that'll be one of my 2 used for next week. Not a huge rush, feel like I can give it until after next week but need him there for West Brom game.

    McCarthy (Martinez)
    Robbo Zouma Dias (Justin Mitchell)
    KDB Bruno Son Gross Raphinha
    Vardy DCL (Brewster)

    Don't want to let go of Bruno / KDB / Son. I feel like I can do it but I'm not convinced it's worth the possible upheaval. Robbo to Taylor, Vardy to Ings leaves me with 5.5itb, I coukd downgrade Raphinha to Bissouma but that still leaves me 0.2 off Gross to Salah. Is it too much trying to plan this especially with price changes?

    1. Jack Burton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Don't think its possible to keep that midfield and defense mate might have to bite the bullet and go with out ,personaly I think you can go without

      1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 5 days ago

        That's fair, I'll give it a few weeks and see how things play out, I was considering dropping Dias soon but with City looking better at the back there are only maybe 3 out of the next 10 games I'd consider benching him so I think I'll hang on, I've gone all season without Salah and haven't done awful and I feel like with the money from Vardy to Ings I can plug the gaps like Mitchell so here's hoping it works! Much appreciated, think I just needed someone to tell me it's too much to try it!

        1. Jack Burton
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          For what its worth mate I have not got him and am doing OK I have Kane Son KDB and Bruno and not going to drop any of those for them good luck buddy

          1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 5 days ago

            Cheers good luck to you too

    2. Jack Burton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Or maybe downgrade Mccarthy to a 4 mil keeper you don't need 2 playing kerpers

  24. Spurrsy
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    Jota and brewster to A. Watkins and Soucek or B. Bamford and 4.9 mid ?

    1. Il Capitano
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Do you need to play the 4.9?

      1. Spurrsy
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        No. Would be my bench only and sub if non starter

        1. Il Capitano
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          Hmm... Think I'd prefer B then as you'd probably be benching Soucek most weeks with A anyway.

  25. baines is god
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 6 days ago

    I sometimes think people on this site don't really understand maths that well.
    I don't mean this in a rude way, but for anyone who understand's sport statistics and betting markets some of the 'conventional wisdom' and 'gut instinct' of the community on here is very wrong.

    For instance, Liverpool Spurs on Wednesday. Liverpool are 55% to win, Draw 25%, Spurs 20%. Over 2.5 goals is about 57%.
    So this game will feature on average about 2.9 goals, and Liverpool on average will get about 1.9 goals and Spurs 1.

    So Spurs on average will score 1 goal in this game, sometimes they'll score more, sometimes they won't. but the mean is about 1.

    Kane and Son have both been involved in the majority of Spurs' goals this year, but that's unsustainable and it's a deviation from the mean. Even though they are their two attacking players, that's likely to change. So given Spurs will only score 1 goal on average, it's actually more likely than not both Kane and Son will blank on Wednesday. But most people on this site don't realise that.

    Their point per return average, is probably about 4 each. That's the mean total they'll get on wednesday. Of course they could get higher, or they could blank, but that's the only calculation that matters.

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Nice, I do like posts like this. Haven't though about it like that myself, but point well made

    2. Pacer.
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Where are you getting the mean from that says Kane and/or Son are not likely to be involved in most of their goals. They absolutely dominate the sharp end of creativity, and between them they own almost all the set pieces.

      1. baines is god
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 5 days ago

        Right now Kane/Son have scored 19 of Spurs' 25 goals.

        This is an absurd 76% of Spurs' total goals. At absolute best case, i.e them as Spurs' only attacking threat, on pens and free kicks, you'd expect them maybe to score 50-60% of Spurs goals, probably less. Own goals, goals from midfielders, other attacking players, defenders, headers off set pieces etc.

        1. Pacer.
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          You said goal involvements, not goals only

    3. el polako
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Now can you use maths again to tell who is better captain this week Bruno or KDB ? Don't care about Spurs but captaincy conundrum is driving me mad.
      Please.

      1. baines is god
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 5 days ago

        KDB obviously

    4. TheDragon
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      I’m not so sure about your assumptions

      ‘Kane and Son have both been involved in the majority of Spurs' goals this year, but that's unsustainable and it's a deviation from the mean. Even though they are their two attacking players, that's likely to change’.

      Given how spurs play it’s not obvious that it will change.

      Pretty sure everyone is aware Liverpool is a bad game due spurs hence likely not to score many and low points for son / Kane. Hence why lots are planning to sell Son for Fernandes

      1. baines is god
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 5 days ago

        So you think Kane and Son scoring 76% of Spurs' goals this year is not a deviation from the mean and is likely to continue?

        1. WE GO FOR IT
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          It may not stay as high as 76% but they are their 2 main attackers and will br involved in a high percentage of their goals come end of the season.

    5. michaelington
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Can you do this for each fixture every week?

    6. Bojam
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 6 days ago

      Have these stats/calculations factored in Liverpool's injuries, particularly the makeshift defence? And their poor defensive form this season? If the above is based on stats from previous years then I'd question their direct relevance in this crazy season.

      1. baines is god
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 5 days ago

        these 'stats and calculations' are the global sports betting markets. they factor in everything. They're a betting exchange like the stock exchange. prices move based on weight of money and informed opinion.

        1. Bojam
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          So if i dump a fortune down on Spurs to win, then the odds change and it therefore becomes more likely to actually happen?

          1. baines is god
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 5 days ago

            another misunderstanding of global sports betting markets. On a large market like 'match odds' on a big premier league game like this, you could bet £500,000 on bet365 and they'd accept it and it wouldn't move the market price on betfair exchange. There are professional arbers placing these sums on every match

            1. Bojam
              • 8 Years
              5 years, 5 days ago

              I don't claim to understand sports betting markets. Just trying to understand your position. TBH, not sure I'm interested in playing FPL purely based on betting odds, however they are calculated. Could be a useful tool when in doubt but things are going just fine and having fun using my own judgement. Can see Spurs scoring 2+ goals against a shaky Pool defence. If they don't well hey ho. Move on to next week. Don't see Son and Kane's returns as a deviation. The team is set up to exploit their partnership playing counter-attacking football. If they dry up then I'll move on to someone else.

              1. baines is god
                • 13 Years
                5 years, 5 days ago

                mate that's completely fair enough and i often take gut instinct punts too. All I'm saying is that on this community in general there's a lot of people who don't understand that their gut instinct is less accurate than what the actual market is saying.

                Right now as i said Kane and Son are scoring 76% of Spurs goals. That's an impossibly high figure to continue. What the real number is i'm not sure. Somewhere around 40-50% maybe.

                1. Boom Boom Sheikh the Toon
                  • 5 Years
                  5 years, 5 days ago

                  anyone claiming their gut instinct is more accurate than a betting market is a divvie ill give you that, gut instinct is exactly that a hunch nothing more. Sometimes you have to trust your gut due to unpredictability and, most importantly, its fun and this is a game intended for fun.

                2. Bojam
                  • 8 Years
                  5 years, 5 days ago

                  Fair do's. Don't get me wrong - I find the stats approach interesting. In this particular case tho I'm not sure that I agree. Spurs are set up to play to Kane & Son's strengths. I can't see any particular reason why they can't go through the season having a hand in the vast majority of the goals Spurs score (unless either gets seriously injured). You would expect others to chip in with the occasional goal and maybe Bale when he's up to speed might take some of the opportunities. But otherwise everything seems to go through K&S. Bergwijn or Lucas haven't offered much. And the midfielders hold/link-play. Some teams spread the goals around, others are structured to exploit the goal threat of one or two key players.

                  1. Boom Boom Sheikh the Toon
                    • 5 Years
                    5 years, 5 days ago

                    I can agree with your above point, will Kane and Son keep up their output? Doubt it, when I see huge point hauls in single games or massive total points at the start of the season I think no chance they keep that up as laws of probability they just shouldnt.

                    My gripe with your point is you keep making out that big performers are not going to continue and people are stupid for picking up players that are doing well, this isnt a mathematics argument, its simply a form argument. These players are in good form and for whatever reason its working for them and they are returning on FPL, FPL is unfortunately about following the herd in the large part to ensure you keep up with differentials for gains.

                    Vibe im getting is that you're salty you ignored DCL because "probability says he wont keep scoring", or you ignored Son and Kane because "theyre doing too well it has to stop at some point right?!" and now youre screaming out into the void trying to justify your FPL shortcomings.

                    Im not getting what you mean about people feeling their gut instinct is more accurate than the actual market, who says this hahaha its gut instinct ffs theres nothing accurate about it, but sometimes it does pay off.

    7. Boom Boom Sheikh the Toon
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 5 days ago

      Football is about form and alot of background factors fans can never find out, its not as simple as saying the odds are X therefore spurs will get on average x.

      You can say anything else is just outliers and will fix itself but the truth is the premier league is far too unpredictable, EG - Leicester winning the league, Villa beating Liverpool 7-2, Spurs beating Man U 6-1.

      You can argue these are just anomalies and dont affect the overall stats but the truth is in recent years only Liverpool and Man city have been truly reliable week in week out, yet this season they have both underperformed to their expectations. In the Prem their are shock results every week and the bookies very rarely get it all right, just enough right to make their money.

      Point I'm trying to make is anything can happen and saying "oh people cant do math what muppets, the odds say liverpool are 55% to win and averages are 2 goals to 1 so anyone picking Kane or Son are clueless" is just daft, Spurs are in hot form, will they bag a goal and then defend all game? Probably but whos to say what will happen, Liverpool have been shaky defensively and Mourinho may want a resounding victory to make a point in his title challenge. Liverpool also play to score high currently, Mourinho could well see that as an opportunity to also go for goals rather than playing deep as letting Liverpool press is a terrible idea.

      1. Bojam
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 5 days ago

        Good post - on the money!

      2. Boom Boom Sheikh the Toon
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 5 days ago

        Just like to clarify before i get accused of being butthurt, I own neither Son or Kane, and my cap is Fernandes this week, based purely on not gut feelings not maths but hey Salah is good home Fernandes is good away, there are my caps. If Salah H Fernandes A, i go with gut, its worked pretty well for me so far.

        1. Pacer.
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          It's doesn't really add up anyway. Goal involvements for other top players like KdB, Salah etc are 25-45 per full season. Spurs will score 70-90 goals this year. The only reason Kane and/or Son won't end up with a mathematical majority hand in each goal is injury

        2. Party time
            5 years, 5 days ago

            You are absolutely right

        3. baines is god
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          You're pointing out that unlikely things happen. The things you've highlighted are some of the unlikely things that have happened in recent years. Unlikely things do happen, just at a less common frequency than likely things. If you selectively focus on the unlikely things that have happened in the past you can convince yourself that sport is not subject to the same laws of probability that everything in the world is. It absolutely is.

        4. Mr. O'Connell
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          Maths & probability vs gut feeling debate really. I sit in the former camp when it comes to this stuff.

          1. baines is god
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 5 days ago

            Debate would imply that there's an element of doubt towards which of the two is correct.

            1. Mr. O'Connell
              • 13 Years
              5 years, 5 days ago

              Well yeah, if you could play 1,000,000 FPL seasons then there is obviously a correct approach to getting a consistently high rank and ultimately winning it. I'll let you know when I have unlocked the secret to everlasting life.

            2. Boom Boom Sheikh the Toon
              • 5 Years
              5 years, 5 days ago

              Play the game based purely on bookies odds and see how it turns out I can guarantee you will either do great, good, average, bad, or awful. Magnus Carlsen (probably a better mathematician than yourself) said himself the game is largely luck and its impossible to reliably perform well using just statistics and probability.

        5. Party time
            5 years, 5 days ago

            This!!!!!!!!!!!

        6. DAZZ
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          Its a simple game

      3. Il Capitano
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        You'd expect KDB to outscore Son over GW13-GW15 right? Move Son to KDB for free then get Spurs coverage back in on GW16 WC?

        1FT 3.3m ITB WC Available

        McCarthy (Button)
        Chilwell Zouma Taylor (Justin Mitchell)
        Bruno (C) Salah Son Grealish (Bissouma)
        Adams DCL Bamford

        1. TheDragon
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 6 days ago

          Yes!!

          1. Il Capitano
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 6 days ago

            Thanks, seems fairly straightforward with the upcoming fixtures, I'm just a little reluctant to lose Son who's been gold since GW1.

      4. Irish Villan 1985
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        Lads, worried about not having KDB, is this stupid?

        Son, Chilwell & Justin

        To (-4)

        KDB, Lewis, Dunne (3.9)

        Team would be:

        Martinez

        James, Gabriel, Lewis

        Salah, KDB (C), Bruno (VC), Grealish

        Watkins, Vardy, DCL

        Bench: Button, Dunne, Kilman, Riedewald

      5. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        Guys, KDB or Bruno captain this week? What do you reckon?

        1. TheDragon
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 6 days ago

          KDB it just has to be

        2. The Train Driver
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 6 days ago

          See both doing well but City has been more consistent lately so I'm going KDB.

        3. HNI
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 5 days ago

          Go with better team when in doubt. MCuty ftw

      6. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        i have mahrez and no KDB...

        would you:

        A jota and saiss to grealish and 4.3 defender (which i dont really need) for -4
        B jota to bowen for free
        C mahrez and robertson to KDB and cheap defender for -4

        ?

        1. CunkOnFPL
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 6 days ago

          jota, mahrez to soucek, kdb not possible?

      7. CunkOnFPL
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 6 days ago

        What to do with this mess:

        McCarthy, Steer
        Ayling, Chilly, Reguilón, Bellerín*, Mitchell*
        Grealish, KDB, Salah, Son, Jota*
        Bamford, Brewster, Adams?

        1 FT, 2.5m ITB