We continue our analysis of the Gameweek 31 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action in our Scout Notes series.
Here, the focus is on Sunday’s two matches: West Ham United v Arsenal and Nottingham Forest v Manchester United.
Any numbers and graphics you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.
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JESUS’ IMPACT
It’s three Premier League starts for Gabriel Jesus (£8.1m) since returning from injury, and he’s scored in them all. The Brazilian netted the opener on Sunday and played a key role in their second too, with his movement causing no end of trouble.
He was almost playing a free role at times, regularly dropping deep (see below), which did impact his goal threat, as he managed just one shot and one penalty box touch during his time on the pitch, which lasted 66 minutes.
Still, it’s four goals in his last three Premier League games, with bottom side Southampton up next at the Emirates on Friday, which precedes Arsenal’s visit to the Etihad in what looks set to be a title-defining showdown.
Above: Gabriel Jesus’ touch heatmap v West Ham
IN-FORM MARTINELLI
Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m) and Martin Odegaard (£6.7m) combined for Arsenal’s second in east London, extending the former’s excellent run of form.
It means Martinelli has now been directly involved in 10 goals in his last nine appearances (seven goals, three assists), a period that has seen him outscore Odegaard and Bukayo Saka (£8.6m) by a whopping 24 and 26 points respectively.
He bosses a lot of the underlying stats, too, from shots in the box to big chances to expected goal involvement (xGI).
Above: Arsenal players sorted by FPL points from Gameweek 24 onwards
SAKA’S MISSED PENALTY
It was a frustrating afternoon for Bukayo Saka’s FPL owners after he sent a second-half penalty high and wide in east London.
The winger stepped up after Michail Antonio (£7.0m) blocked Martinelli’s shot with his hand, having scored two in two prior to Sunday this season. However, Saka failed to convert, ending Gameweek 31 without any points, his third blank in a row.
On how Saka can bounce back from his penalty miss, Mikel Arteta said:
“If you are prepared to take responsibility of penalties, you have to be prepared that in that package the possibility to miss is 100%. At some point you’re going to miss. That’s it. You have to be able to react to that after. If you cannot do that then you cannot be a penalty taker. Bukayo has been through that and he will go through that again.” – Mikel Arteta
When later asked how Saka will respond to the missed penalty, Arteta said:
“For sure. If I had to pick one player to do it, it would be him again. In that moment we missed it and this is football.” – Mikel Arteta
BOWEN: “I’M BACK TO MY BEST”
Saka’s failure to convert from the spot would prove costly, as just two minutes later, Jarrod Bowen (£8.0m) swept home the equaliser.
It means the 26-year-old has now returned in each of the last three Gameweeks, presenting himself as a decent differential option for those on a Gameweek 32 Free Hit, when West Ham visit Bournemouth.
“Since after the World Cup, I feel I’ve been back to my best. People might say it’s not my best because I’m not scoring goals, but my general play and assists have been there and I’ve always said goals will come, as long as I’m doing my bit for the team, whether that be sprinting and not letting the ball go in or slide tackling someone to block a shot, assisting or scoring, I’ll always do what I can for the team.
I think there has been a proper weight lifted off my shoulders. I’ve spoken about it before that I wasn’t happy with my performances before the World Cup when there was a lot riding on them, and now I feel free again. It’s about how I deal with those situations differently and I feel good since we’ve been back and today, to get the goal, I was over the moon.” – Jarrod Bowen
“Jarrod in recent weeks has been the one providing assists for us. He made the goal last week against Fulham and he made the one in midweek at Gent too. He seems to be the one who’s making chances, what we’ve missed a bit is his goals, but today he gets on the end of one and finishes it, which is great. It’s what he wants to do and hopefully if he can add another half-a-dozen goals between now and the end of the season it would be great.” – David Moyes on Jarrod Bowen
ARSENAL’S DEFENCE/ZINCHENKO INJURY LATEST
Arsenal have been leaking goals lately, conceding six in their last four matches, a period that has seen them fail to keep a single clean sheet.
Across those four games, which has coincided with William Saliba’s (£5.0m) absence, Arteta’s men have allowed 7.29 xG, the eighth-worst total in the division. 5.78 of that tally was conceded in their last two away matches, which has included two penalties. Their next away game is, of course, at the Etihad in Gameweek 33.
Against West Ham, they were missing two of their first-choice back four, with Kieran Tierney (£4.6m) covering for Oleksandr Zinchenko (£5.2m), who suffered a groin problem in the 2-2 draw against Liverpool last time out. The issue is not expected to keep the Ukraine international out for long, however, and he could potentially return against Southampton on Friday.
“He had a muscular issue at the end of the [Liverpool] match. He was struggling in the last few minutes. We assessed him and he wasn’t fit enough to play.” – Mikel Arteta on Oleksandr Zinchenko
BRUNO ADVANCED… BUT BLANKS
Bruno Fernandes (£9.6m) returned to the no. 10 role at The City Ground and was unlucky not to score.
The Portuguese has been deployed in a slightly deeper role of late, but was much more advanced against Nott’m Forest and was twice denied by excellent Keylor Navas (£4.5m) saves, with one of those efforts tipped onto the woodwork.
It was Fernandes’ sixth successive blank, yet he did at least post some encouraging underlying numbers. For example, no player racked up more penalty box touches than his eight. He also clearly benefitted from playing alongside Casemiro (£4.9m) and Christian Eriksen (£6.2m) again, with the pair providing the platform for Fernandes to impact the game in the final-third.
Above: Bruno Fernandes’ touch heatmap v Nott’m Forest
MAN UTD’S INJURY CONCERNS
Eriksen was a late replacement for Marcel Sabitzer (£4.7m) in the line-up after he picked up an injury during the warm-up. Discussing the change, Erik ten Hag said:
Yeah, at the last minute [Bruno Fernandes’ role changed]. It’s a little bit of a different role but it’s not that huge because we want rotation there, to be fluid and our full-backs play an important role in our game in possession there.” – Erik ten Hag
Sabitzer, who scored two goals against Sevilla in midweek, is now one of 10 senior Man Utd players sidelined through injury, an extensive list which includes first-choice defenders Raphael Varane (£4.8m), Lisandro Martinez (£4.5m) and Luke Shaw (£5.1m), plus top goalscorer Marcus Rashford (£7.1m).
Tyrell Malacia (£4.2m) was also absent at The City Ground due to a sore knee, with Diogo Dalot (£4.7m) – the scorer of Man Utd’s second goal – deployed at left-back. Still, United have coped well defensively, with the previously familiar centre-back pairing of Victor Lindelof (£4.1m) and Harry Maguire (£4.7m) helping them to another clean sheet on Sunday, the third in as many games in the Premier League.
“You see how quickly things can change, last week we had nine fit defenders, today we had four. We need the numbers especially as we are one of a few teams in Europe who are playing a lot of games and we need the numbers to stay in competitions because we want a good team every time we step on the pitch. Today was one step where we proved we can perform really well with those players and Thursday we have to go again and Sunday we have to go again.” – Erik ten Hag
“It was a very good performance from the defence. We said before, defending is with eleven players and how we do it but of course, the back four you pay a lot of attention to that. We defended really well to dominate the opponent and I counted one moment in the game on the counter where the defensive transition was really good. They really concentrated.
The angles are not good if Harry [Maguire] is playing on the left side, it is difficult for him. But I think he is more capable on the right. Victor [Lindelof] can use both feet very good and I think he did a brilliant job in defence and in transition from Johnson. So that is why we prefer to do it with them in this way.” – Erik ten Hag
TEN HAG ON ANTONY
Erik ten Hag was particularly pleased with Antony’s (£7.3m) impact against Nott’m Forest, with the Brazilian’s goal and assist helping Man Utd earn a 2-0 win.
Incredibly, they were his first attacking returns since Gameweek 10, with 14 successive blanks recorded prior to today.
However, he was excellent at the The City Ground, racking up seven shots, including four inside the box.
“I defended him but he knows, I know as well. When you are a striker you need an end product, he already has it but he has scored in all competitions now and there are still games to go. He has to do it all the time and in every competition. In the Premier League, you are up against high-quality defenders and you need to make that decision in a split moment. Today is a moment when he did that. He is definitely making progress. I’m happy for him that he scored, and he had another one if Wan-Bissaka was not blocking the shot! He has to step up there but today is an example where he makes, with both goals, the right decision.” – Erik ten Hag on Antony
