As Valentin Barco‘s (£4.0m) temporary exit from Brighton and Hove Albion draws nearer, his owners in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) have mostly been asking two things.
One, who are the best replacements? That’s something Tom Freeman tackled in an article earlier this week.
And two, will Barco’s price be locked if he heads out on loan?
How the FPL market works is a bit of a mystery, with no clarity on what the requirements are for players to rise and fall. It’s linked to purchases and sales, of course, but the exact thresholds are known only by the games-makers themselves. A look at the leading price prediction websites underscores the uncertainty.
There’s nothing written about how player prices are treated after a departure from a club, either.
Some have speculated that prices are locked when a played is made ‘unavailable’. Others have suggested that the rises and falls merely slow, rather than stop altogether.
With that in mind, we thought we’d take a look at past precedents for any clues.
LAST 50 PLAYERS LOANED OUT IN THE WINTER TRANSFER WINDOW
Here, we’ve listed the last 50 loan exits. We’ve also documented when the red flags were added, the price at the point of departure and the end 2023/24 price:
| Player | Club | Date of red flag | Price at the point of red flag | End price |
| Bergstrom | CHE | Mar 4 | £3.9m | £3.9m |
| O’Reilly | AVL | Feb 5 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Bennett | MUN | Feb 5 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Worrall | NFO | Feb 5 | £4.3m | £4.3m |
| Aguilera | NFO | Feb 4 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Ndiweni | ARS | Feb 4 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Hodge | WOL | Feb 4 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Sagoe | ARS | Feb 4 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Moore | BOU | Feb 4 | £4.6m | £4.6m |
| Veliz | TOT | Feb 4 | £5.4m | £5.4m |
| Benrahma | WHU | Feb 4 | £5.6m | £5.6m |
| Mangala | NFO | Feb 4 | £5.0m | £5.0m |
| Coulibaly | SHU | Feb 4 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Andrey | CHE | Feb 4 | £4.2m | £4.2m |
| Ebiowei | CRY | Feb 4 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Francois | FUL | Feb 4 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Campbell | EVE | Feb 4 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Kilkenny | BOU | Feb 4 | £4.3m | £4.3m |
| Zaroury | BUR | Feb 4 | £4.6m | £4.6m |
| Seriki | SHU | Feb 4 | £3.9m | £3.9m |
| Buyabu | SHU | Feb 4 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Vinicius | FUL | Feb 4 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Greenwood | BOU | Feb 4 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Egan-Riley | BUR | Feb 4 | £3.9m | £3.9m |
| Roberts | BUR | Feb 4 | £4.3m | £4.3m |
| Hackford | SHU | Feb 2 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Dahoud | BHA | Feb 2 | £4.8m | £4.8m |
| Pellistri | MUN | Feb 2 | £4.2m | £4.2m |
| Brooks | BOU | Feb 1 | £4.7m | £4.7m |
| Olakigbe | BRE | Feb 1 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| McKenna | NFO | Feb 1 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Beck | LIV | Jan 31 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Giles | LUT | Jan 31 | £4.2m | £4.2m |
| Obafemi | BUR | Jan 29 | £4.9m | £4.9m |
| Ola-Adebomi | CRY | Jan 29 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Marshall | WHU | Jan 29 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Gore | MUN | Jan 29 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Dendoncker | AVL | Jan 29 | £4.9m | £4.9m |
| Adaramola | CRY | Jan 29 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Vítek | MUN | Jan 29 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Luker | LUT | Jan 25 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Mosquera | WOL | Jan 25 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Peart-Harris | BRE | Jan 24 | £4.5m | £4.5m |
| Marcondes | BOU | Jan 24 | £4.3m | £4.3m |
| Goode | BRE | Jan 24 | £3.9m | £3.9m |
| Churlinov | BUR | Jan 24 | £4.4m | £4.4m |
| Marschall | AVL | Jan 22 | £4.0m | £4.0m |
| Perišić | TOT | Jan 22 | £4.7m | £4.7m |
| Traore | SHU | Jan 18 | £4.7m | £4.7m |
| Rothwell | BOU | Jan 17 | £4.8m | £4.8m |
We could go on. So, then, a very long-winded way of saying there were no price falls after a red flag was added.
None of these players had the massive ownership that Barco boasts, of course.
A better example would perhaps be Joao Cancelo. The right-back fell so swiftly out of favour at Manchester City in 2022/23 that he went from well-owned FPL asset to Bayern Munich loanee in the blink of an eye.
| Player | Club | Date of red flag | Price at the point of red flag | End price | Transfers out after red flag |
| Cancelo | MCI | Jan 31 | £7.1m | £7.1m | 1,112,751 |
The transfers out column doesn’t even include the 1,445,499 sales in the same Gameweek of his departure (he left midway through), as there’s no way of knowing how many occured before or after his exit. Most likely would have been after.
So, then, in the absence of anything official from FPL towers, the evidence does point to prices being locked.
This is only after the red flag is added, of course. Owners of Barco will be hoping that’s swiftly processed if and when he does exit, to protect against any possible price drop.
