Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his usual weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 4. The topics include whether to sell Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) for Mohamed Salah (£12.7m), Ollie Watkins’ (£8.9m) minutes and Brentford players.
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Q: Is the Bukayo Saka to Mohamed Salah hokey-cokey really workable?
Q. Is getting three Arsenal players worth it when they have the fixture run they have (including Europe)? The only favourable fixtures before Gameweek 12 come in Gameweeks 6-8.
(via FREDDO and CRUNCHIE)
A: The way that FPL towers have set the pricing, it’s quite obvious that we can’t own all the best assets – Phil Foden (£9.4m), Cole Palmer (£10.6m), Bukayo Saka (£10.1m), Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) and Erling Haaland (£15.2m) – like we did last season. I think most of us would agree that’s a welcome change.
So I think early on, each one of us needs to decide what strategy we are going to adopt. Are we going to pick the two best premium assets in the game, ie Salah and Haaland, and stick with them through the difficult fixtures? Or are we going to chop and change based on fixture difficulty?
Of course, there’s the alternative approach of a single premium and spreading the funds around. I’m not delving into that for this question as it would be digressing from the point.
Why I believe you have to pick one is that if you end up doing a mix of both, I think you end up risking missing the hauls you might otherwise benefit from – as we saw with Salah against Manchester United (which I don’t even know if it should be called a hard fixture anymore). Salah and Haaland have the potential to go big in any fixture. Would it surprise me to see Haaland score a hat-trick against Arsenal? Nope, but is it less probable than Haaland scoring a hat-trick against Ipswich Town? Yes.
This is the principle I’ve applied when I’ve done the Saka to Salah move this week, which with the injury to Martin Odegaard (£8.4m) looks like a better move on paper. It still has the potential to backfire massively. Could Saka outscore Salah over the next two fixtures? Absolutely, yes. These are quality players and we are going to see some variance/luck with their returns. The big lure of the move for me was captaincy in Gameweek 5, when Haaland faces Arsenal and Salah has Bournemouth at home.
Now, the question of going back to Saka for Gameweek 6. There’s no narrative being peddled here; it is again chasing a higher ceiling. Does Saka even have a higher ceiling than Salah over that period? It is down to your opinion. Will I certainly do the move then? No, there are still two Gameweeks of data/eye tests I want to analyse. I may conclude that Kai Havertz (£8.1m) is enough attack from Arsenal and that Salah is just a better pick ahead of Saka. I may also need to improve my team elsewhere.
Again, there’s no right or wrong way to play here. There’s no definite “right move” in selling Saka to Salah this week and doing the reverse in Gameweek 6. It’s just down to how you want to approach the game.
Q: If you’re on a Wildcard in Gameweek 6, would you do Gabriel Magalhaes/William Saliba to Andrew Robertson/Trent Alexander-Arnold this week?
(via HAIRY POTTER)
A: Andrew Robertson’s (£6.0m) numbers have been impressive and he looks to be taking more set pieces this season than he did under Jurgen Klopp. However, Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m) is still the man when it comes to big chance creation. Even on the eye test, he just looks like a better pick.
I would make the move from an Arsenal defender to either Liverpool full-back this week, preferably Alexander-Arnold. I think the opportunity cost of any transfer is four points and there is every chance the Liverpool full-backs outscore the Arsenal centre-halves by that much over the next two Gameweeks.
Q: I am currently on a Gameweek 4 Wildcard. Would you bring in any Brentford players with Gameweek 6 in mind?
(via WAYNE50)
A: I think Mark Flekken is a decent bet if you are decided on going for a £4.5m goalkeeper. The next two fixtures are not great but there is potential for save points there and no other £4.5m goalkeeper has really put their hand up so far. The fixtures are favourable for Brentford from Gameweeks 6 to 12 but you could make an argument that fixtures don’t really matter for a ‘keeper you are planning to keep till around Gameweek 30. In that case, I also like Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m) – and you also get the immediate upside with the next two home games.
I would also bring in one of Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m) or Yoane Wissa (£6.1m), preferably Mbeumo. You can rotate him with Morgan Rogers (£5.1m)/Joao Pedro (£5.7m) this week and next when Brentford are away to Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur. You could even play Mbeumo/Wissa in the latter fixture.
It’s a transfer you will want to make anyway in Gameweek 6. With the changes this year, transfers are even more precious than before.
Q: How much of a threat is Jhon Duran to Ollie Watkins’ minutes or even starts?
(via FPL VIRGIN)
A: I am writing this on September 12 and as of now, we have not seen Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) pictured in training after his international withdrawal or heard anything from Unai Emery regarding his fitness. Assuming Watkins is fit, I think he will start over Jhon Duran (£6.0m).
However, this is uncharted territory when it comes to three games a week, especially when it is a much higher calibre of opposition than Villa faced in the UEFA Europa Conference League when Watkins was often rested. Is it possible that Watkins is spared for an easy home league match in Gameweek 5 when they host Bayern Munich midweek? It’s all guesswork but I think it is.
Duran has looked impressive, and Watkins is very unlikely to be a 90-minute-per-week man, in my opinion. It has put me off Watkins as an option in the short term since we don’t know what kind of injury he is managing. Will the issue permit him to play three matches a week?
Q: Best midfielder under £6.0m for Gameweeks 4 and 5 only?
(via @fplELON)
A: I think it has to be a Brighton and Hove Albion or Aston Villa midfielder given their home fixtures in Gameweeks 4 and 5. Probably Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m) over Rogers for me.
Q: Are Brighton’s fixtures really that hard after the next two Gameweeks for their attackers? Danny Welbeck, Yankuba Minteh and Joao Pedro have scored points against Manchester United and/or Arsenal already this season.
(via FREDDO)
A: Brighton’s fixtures after Ipswich and Nottingham Forest are as follows:
Again, it goes back to the earlier question of chasing the higher ceiling. Do we think Brighton score goals in these fixtures? Yes. Do I think they will score 3+ goals? Probably not.
I think having a Brighton attacker like Joao Pedro, who is on penalties, is perfectly fine and he is playable in any given week. But do I think someone like Wissa could outscore him in Gameweeks 6-11? Yes, I think so. Of course, it’s a subjective call that could massively backfire.
I’m not reading anything into the Arsenal game with the red card. Manchester United can also be an obliging defence, so I think we are still learning about Brighton and even Brentford. My opinion might change after a couple of Gameweeks.
Q: Who are the best set-and-forget £4.5m defenders for FPL managers looking to take money out of defence?
(via FPLVIRGIN)
A: I think Rico Lewis (£4.7m) is worth a risk if you are using him as a fourth or fifth defender. Apart from that, you’re looking at mostly low-upside picks.
With the fixtures in mind, I’d say Ezri Konsa (£4.5m), Lewis Dunk (£4.5m) and Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m). I also like Leif Davis (£4.5m): he probably has the most upside of any pick in that price bracket and I think is close to a permaplay every week if you’re looking to save money. He’s basically Ipswich’s best attacker.
Antonee Robinson’s (£4.6m) boat might have sailed with their best two fixtures past but he could still get attacking returns in some of the upcoming games.
