With the next Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline nearing, we’re getting insight and team reveals from our panel of Hall of Famers and guest writers. Here, FPL Family’s Sam discusses how her transfer plans have been impacted by William Saliba’s red card.
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William Saliba‘s (£6.0m) Gameweek 8 red card was just one of several disasters in my FPL team. I now have a decision to make ahead of Gameweek 9. I rolled my transfer last week to allow two, however, a suspended Saliba wasn’t part of the plan. The question now is what to do with him. Do I bench Saliba this week or sell? And if I sell who comes in? There are three options which I’ll talk through here.
TAKE A SEAT ON THE BENCH
If I had already played my Wildcard then I would have been more tempted to keep Saliba. Arsenal are a team that I want to own a defender from long-term. From Gameweek 12 onwards one looks essential, potentially even a defensive double-up.
However, with Liverpool at home, then Newcastle United and Chelsea away in the next three matches, plus a Wildcard in my back pocket, I am tempted to sell.
By selling Saliba this week I would be losing him for Newcastle and Chelsea away. My plan was always to swap Saliba for Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.3m) in Gameweek 12 when I play the Wildcard. Therefore I would still be able to follow the strategy of having a different Arsenal defender for that exceptionally nice-looking run.
Knowing that I would prefer Gabriel anyway makes me more likely to pick a replacement. There are three that are especially taking my fancy.
BLIND DATE
For those old enough to remember Cilla Black and Blind Date, scouting for a Saliba replacement feels very much like choosing between three eligible bachelors!
Option 1, what’s your name and where do you come from…
OPTION 1
This is a long-term pick coming in nearly £2m cheaper than Saliba. He hasn’t kept a clean sheet so far this season but has had nine attempts on goal, three of which have been big chances. The defender has also created 10 chances for his team-mates, which is the fourth-best among defenders. The upcoming fixture run looks good for continued attacking threat as well as hopefully some defensive security.
OPTION 2
A premium option that will take all of the budget from selling Saliba. This player has shown a real attacking threat in the last three matches with two goals scored. However, like option one, clean sheets haven’t been forthcoming.
OPTION 3
This is the option made through fear. He is like a security blanket, knowing that you are unlikely to suffer a huge rank drop by selling an Arsenal defender. His 10 headed attempts from set pieces is more than any other player in the game.
All three of these options are tied for the most goals scored this season with two. Option one also leads the way among defenders for attacking returns with four.
By now you’ve probably already guessed that those options are Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.4m), Josko Gvardiol (£6.1m) and Gabriel.
BEST LAID PLANS
My original transfer plan this week involved selling Pedro Porro (£5.5m) for Ait-Nouri, although the Tottenham Hotspur right-back is now likely to get a stay of execution. I could just stick with the Ait-Nouri in plan by simply selling Saliba instead.
However, Manchester City host Southampton this weekend. The Saints have not yet kept a clean sheet and have scored only six goals. This could make returns at both ends of the pitch likely for Gvardiol and therefore potentially the upside of buying him this week is greater.
Part of the plan in selling Porro was to free up money to upgrade Harry Winks (£4.5m). However, with Diogo Jota (£7.4m) picking up a rib injury he may now need attention.
If I opt for Ait-Nouri over Gvardiol or Gabriel it will give me more budget for a Jota replacement if one is needed.
If Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) misses out through injury again then I would also have the option of buying Son Heung-min (£9.9m) or Cole Palmer (£10.8m). Whereas if I opt for Gvardiol I would be limited to a £7.5m midfielder to replace Jota or a £10.2m one to replace Saka. Moreover, if I plump for Gabriel then I have even less to spend, £7.2m/£9.9m respectively.
CURRENT PLAN OF ACTION
Right now my current thought process is that I will risk not having an Arsenal defender for the next three weeks. Then when I play my Wildcard in Gameweek 12 I will reinvest in the Gunners rearguard. I will either do that in the form of Gabriel or David Raya (£5.7m). That means it is a straight choice between Gvardiol and Ait-Nouri.
I will wait until after the European matches to make that decision. Not only to make sure Gvardiol remains fit and available but also to wait for more news on Jota and Saka. Of course, I also have a further five players in European action too. Any injuries to them would also have an impact on transfer plans. Waiting also gives me time to see if Arsenal do decide to appeal the red card.
My gut feeling is I will move for Ait-Nouri and then use the money to upgrade elsewhere.
