Two-time Indian Fantasy Premier League (FPL) champion Lateriser still has Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m) and is desperate to get rid. He’s looking at two cheap candidates to replace the Everton forward.
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It has been quite a week regarding my perception of FPL. I was quite pessimistic when thinking of potential moves and outcomes because, while I’ve had a pretty good team since the Gameweek 5 Wildcard, it hasn’t made good rank climbs.
But that is the nature of this swingy season and what goes around will come around. At the very least, I love that there are decisions to make, meaning FPL is more fun and enjoyable.
However, one reason why I was pessimistic was because Gameweek 10 ended without anything from Raul Jimenez (£5.8m) and I had to see lots of my peers get a Dominic Solanke (£7.7m) brace instead.
Now top of the league for expected goals (xG), scoring 15 times in five games, Tottenham Hotspur get to face Ipswich Town at home – the side that’s conceded the highest xG and big chances this season. *Gulp*
I have no piece of this pie and it definitely has me worried. I’m only drawing hope from three things. Hiding behind a big fat couch, hoping that goals are spread around – c’mon Dejan Kulusevski (£6.3m) – and the chance that their Thursday night game leads to a slightly rugged performance from them.
LACK OF MAN UNITED
The same applies to Manchester United and their trio of good games, with more positive vibes at the club now that there’s less ‘TEN’sion building. Their attackers can be very brain-dead at times but will still create enough chances to score goals in this run. Whilst Spurs and Man United aren’t as reliable as the top three sides, there is genuinely high upside there.
As the promoted three play away this week, going for three Man United, three Spurs, plus Mohamed Salah (£12.8m), Erling Haaland (£15.3m) and a couple of Wolverhampton Wanderers players on a Free Hit is pretty darn attractive. Especially since we don’t know the status of Cole Palmer (£11.0m) for Chelsea’s match with Arsenal. I wonder when the latter will decide to start keeping clean sheets…
If Palmer is injured, I could indulge in some Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) as he’s looked threatening under Ruud van Nistelrooy. A total of nine shots and eight key passes in two games. After that, he’s got a couple of good games, a new manager bounce and a probable front-three role if Ruben Amorim persists with his 3-4-2-1 shape.
If you’re jumping onto a player’s good fixture run, you’re likeliest to succeed if you do it at the start. Which is this week. So it’s about deciding which battle I want to indulge in.
Maybe being a Manchester United fan is faith enough. After all, this is Cole Palmer we’re talking about. In a middling season, he’s been my only shining light, buying him on my Gameweek 5 Wildcard for THAT game against Brighton and Hove Albion. His post-Gameweek 11 matches look incredible and I also have some team value attached to him.
EVANILSON OR STRAND LARSEN?
Now, the obvious problem in my team is Calvert-Lewin. I am not going to consider Yoane Wissa (£6.0m) as a replacement because I think his fixtures soon turn and Igor Thiago (£5.9m) is almost back from injury, making me nervous about minutes. As I already own Jimenez, there are two prime candidates to replace the Everton forward.
Those are Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.6m) and Evanilson (£5.9m) – aka Franko Lewanilson De Lima Barbosa. Now the fixtures are pretty good for both teams but we need to look closer.
There is no doubt in my mind that Bournemouth are a better team than Wolves. Looking at the last six games, Gary O’Neil’s lot ranks bottom for attacking stats whereas the Cherries are upper mid-table.
Yes, Wolves’ early fixtures have been tough but Bournemouth have had it tricky too and they’ve just grabbed seven points from Arsenal, Aston Villa and Manchester City. They’ve proved themselves to be ruthless and effective on transitions, with the next half-dozen matches suiting this style.
Evanilson is a ‘tip of the spear’ forward, rather than a deep sitter like Solanke, having pretty good pace too. You’d think the transitions will hopefully mean some FPL returns for both him and Antoine Semenyo (£5.6m).
Meanwhile, though Strand Larsen has a good entry point against Southampton, I don’t think the following away trips will be easy. Fulham have conceded the joint-fewest big chances so far and then, afterwards, Dyche is going to Dyche.
From an underlying numbers standpoint, there isn’t much between the two, as you can see below. This is despite Evanilson (left) playing far fewer minutes than Strand Larsen (right).
Now yes, the big issue may indeed be secure game time but the Brazilian changed the game when coming on against Aston Villa. After looking at forums and talking to a few fans, he feels like the firm first choice. What also helps is that Enes Unal (£5.4m) hasn’t been impressive.
All things considered, if I sell Calvert-Lewin in one single move, it will likely be for Evanilson. Should Palmer miss no more than one Gameweek, I’m likely to hold, although there’s a chance that a Spurs or Man United attacker will reel me in. We’ll only know on Saturday.
Until then, have a happy contemplation and good luck for this week. Especially to all the likely Haaland captainers, like me.
“A wounded tiger is a dangerous beast”
