The recent Cole Palmer (£10.8m) decline has led to many Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers wondering whether they should keep or sell the Chelsea midfielder.
Palmer’s last seven appearances have been goalless, with just one assist. Is it a coincidence that centre-forward colleague Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) has missed the most recent four through injury?
We’ll look at basic statistics and some StatsBomb graphics to see if the Senegalese international’s imminent return will be good news.
TOGETHER
In this 2024/25 campaign, they’ve been on the pitch together for 1,720 league minutes. Palmer has 11 goals in that time (every 156.36 minutes) and seven assists (every 245.71).
But in 714 minutes without Jackson, he has three goals (every 238) and one assist. That hints that the duo are better in each other’s company.
It’s not that straightforward, though. While it can be said that Palmer’s dip has overlapped with Jackson’s absence, deeper numbers float a theory that he might be holding the England star back.
Palmer is the league’s third-best player for big chances (40) and ranks first for chances created (71), while Jackson is one of this season’s most wasteful, underperforming his expected goals (xG) with -2.38. This follows last season’s -4.64. One creates, the other misses.
ABOVE: 11 key Palmer passes went to Jackson, with the red arrow being an assist
Using StatsBomb, we can see the 11 key Palmer passes that have landed at Jackson, where he’s scored once instead of 2.79 times. That was a tap-in from close distance.
On the other hand, Palmer is enhancing Jackson’s creativity. The latter’s nine key passes should’ve ended in 1.42 goals but they’ve brought four.
ABOVE: Nine key Jackson passes went to Palmer, with the four red arrows being assists
Only one of these five successful goal combinations has occurred since the end of Gameweek 6.
APART
However, recent Chelsea weeks could hint that Jackson’s overall team contribution could be underappreciated. Remove the 4-0 victory over Southampton – on track to become the worst-ever Premier League side – and the Blues have lost three times and scraped past 19th-placed Leicester City.
It’s usually been Pedro Neto (£6.3m) up front, rather than on the wing. He only mustered a couple of shots throughout the two expected heavy home wins, whereas Christopher Nkunku (£5.7m) had seven that totalled 0.82 expected goal involvement (xGI)
Palmer was deployed on the right wing in Gameweek 26 but returned to his usual attacking midfield spot versus Southampton and Leicester. A huge 12 shots, three big chances and 2.62 xGI were then accumulated by him (shown below), so maybe it’s more about bad finishing, low confidence and unluckiness. After all, it’s not like Jackson could have influenced Palmer’s missed penalty.
ABOVE: The 12 shots from Palmer versus Southampton and Leicester
Yet what’s interesting is that Jackson is the leading FPL forward when studying xG Chain data. This looks at player involvement during any point of an attack, giving credit for pre-assists. It says that 0.96 goals per 90 come from moves that Jackson has been involved in.
It’s intriguing to see Noni Madueke (£6.0m), another Blues whose return is imminent, also ranking very highly.
Furthermore, the touch heatmaps of Palmer show him getting closer to the box when Jackson is around. While his finishing needs a polish, the striker’s hold-up play and awareness is definitely a strength.
ABOVE: Palmer’s touch heatmaps before Jackson’s injury (left) and after (right)
WHEN WILL THEY BE BACK?
So, if Jackson’s presence improves the team, FPL managers will be keen to see when both he and Palmer recover from injury.
The midfielder missed Sunday’s defeat at Arsenal because of a muscle problem. Absent from the England squad, reports say he’s seeing a specialist to determine a timeline and there is internal confidence that he’ll be fine for Gameweek 30 versus Tottenham Hotspur.
“We think after the international break he will be back with us. He had an injury yesterday during the session. It was a very light session. That’s why we think it is nothing important. But we wait and the feeling is he will be back after the next international break.” – Enzo Maresca on Cole Palmer’s Gameweek 29 absence
Will Jackson also return? Head coach Enzo Maresca has always used the other side of this international break as an estimate. Whether his latest comments indicate it’ll be the immediate first match is less clear.
“Nico has started to do some running outside which is good, but I don’t think there is any change with his status. We are still looking at after the international break for him.” – Enzo Maresca, speaking recently about Nicolas Jackson
FPL managers are causing Palmer to rapidly fall in price – currently an easy sacrifice when purchasing Erling Haaland (£14.8m). But the combination of Jackson’s return and good short-term fixtures could tempt some to hold on.
Chelsea host Ipswich Town in Gameweek 32 and are guaranteed to play in Blank Gameweek 34, at home to Everton. A strong initial schedule, though the push for Champions League football will be severely tested by their final fixtures.
