Spot the Differential
19 April 2025 618 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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Gameweek 33 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us but there’s still time to pick out three more differentials.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester City, Aston Villa and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

We’ve slightly bent the rules this time on Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m), who was owned by under 4% of managers when we earmarked out differentials earlier this week but who has attracted nearly 400,000 transfers in since.

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

­­­FPL Gameweek 15 differentials: De Bruyne, Paqueta + Enzo 3

  • FPL ownership: 8.3%
  • Price: £9.3m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: eve + AVL | – | WOL

Given that he’s not in the Scout Picks, it felt remiss not to cover De Bruyne in some capacity this week.

Be it sentimentality or just desperation to tap into the City attack ahead of their Double Gameweek 33, the veteran Belgian is back in vogue.

The third-most-bought midfielder of the upcoming Gameweek, he’s more than doubled his ownership in the process.

De Bruyne was sublime in Gameweek 32, securing a 12-point haul in Manchester City’s 5-2 win over Crystal Palace.

He topped both the shot and key pass tables in that match, too:

Speaking after his starring role, the City stalwart said he was pain-free for the first time in a long time.

“It’s been a hard year. You know, having a hernia wasn’t fun but I think now I would say I’m basically pain-free for the last six weeks and that’s a massive difference playing with pain or no pain. It was hard but now I feel free, I’m able to do a lot of training sessions and I feel I can do a good job.” – Kevin De Bruyne

Currently, he’s operating in a roaming ‘false nine’ capacity – possibly to limit the amount of hard yards he has to put in, something he would be doing in a more orthodox central midfield role. The two wingers on either side of him are playing narrower and running beyond him:

There are two schools of thought.

One, that Guardiola is going to get as much out of De Bruyne as he can before the Belgian departs in the summer and give him a fitting, prominent farewell.

Or, the 33-year-old playmaker is just another pawn on Guardiola’s moving chessboard. The slippery City boss could go back to ‘wide wingers’ and an orthodox striker at the drop of a hat and/or merely manage his veteran midfielder’s minutes.

We can’t even guarantee two starts in Gameweek 33 (a start and a substitute appearance would be our best guess) but that may well be the case for most City attackers and indeed a lot of the Villa and Arsenal midfielders.

At least we know that when De Bruyne gets on the grass, he’s capable of the special.

YOURI TIELEMANS

­­­FPL Gameweek 6 differentials: Tavernier, Savinho + Tielemans 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: NEW + mci | – | FUL

The ‘undroppable’ status of Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) has been widely discussed in recent weeks but there is another Aston Villa midfielder who has logged even more minutes than the England international in 2024/25.

Youri Tielemans (£5.5m) is the only Villan to start all 32 league matches for his club, completing 90 minutes on 25 of those occasions.

Unai Emery discussed both players’ durability last weekend.

“Some players are showing us their consistency, playing minutes and recovering. It is not easy to play at the level we demand in matches in a row without being injured.

“Youri and Morgan, they are being very important and consistent. I am always analysing if we can take some minutes to rest them, but until now they are being consistent and playing the demands we need.” – Unai Emery

Minutes aside, Tielemans is not the most glamorous of picks. He’s never managed more than 10 attacking returns in a single season, and is currently on eight for 2024/25.

Two of those have arrived in the last two Gameweeks, at least.

Tielemans’ recent underlying numbers haven’t been bad, either. Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s Villa’s leading chance creator (CC, below) and joint-second for shots (Tot, below):

differentials Gameweek 33

With Gameweek 33 opponents Newcastle United and Manchester City possessing two of the higher, more aggressive defensive lines in the division, Tielemans could find ample space in behind for his superb through-balls from central midfield.

differentials Gameweek 33

The Belgian is also on a share of set plays.

RYAN SESSEGNON

  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £4.1m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: CHE | sou | avl

Ryan Sessegnon (£4.1m) might be a pick that some FPL managers will want to hold fire on, with the really good stuff – Southampton (a) – not until next weekend. He could enter the Gameweek 34 Free Hit conversation in particular.

If you’re going early on the budget Fantasy defender, Chelsea aren’t exactly formidable foes right now. After nearly losing to Championship-bound Ipswich Town, the Blues fell to a 2-1 loss at home to Legia Warsaw on Thursday.

Enzo Maresca’s side are also winless in their last eight Premier League matches on the road.

differentials Gameweek 33

Above: Chelsea are bottom of the eight-match away form table

The Cottagers even turned over their neighbours at Stamford Bridge in December, winning 2-1.

Why Sessegnon? If you’ve not watched Fulham in the last few weeks, you may have missed the former Tottenham Hotspur defender playing ‘out of position’ on the right wing.

differentials Gameweek 33

After successive returns off the bench in Gameweeks 29 and 30, Sessegnon was rewarded with a start in the last home match against Liverpool and turned in a superb showing, scoring for the third time in five matches.

He unsurprisingly kept his place on Monday at Bournemouth. Don’t be spooked by his early withdrawal: that turned out to be a touchline admin error, something that sent Marco Silva apoplectic.

Those two starts have brought six shots in the box, a Fulham high over that period:

differentials Gameweek 33

Sessegnon has also had more than twice as many penalty area touches (16) as any teammate in the last two Gameweeks.

There’s obvious risk involved with Fulham well stocked with wingers but Sessegnon seems to hold the upper hand for now.



618 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. aapoman
    • 12 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Palmer to KDB or Saka? My rank is trash so tempted to go TC KDB and hope for vintage performances

    1. Fifa las vegas
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Might as well if chasing upside that way.

      1. Fifa las vegas
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        And that thought has sort of swayed me toward taking the plunge on KdB too

      2. aapoman
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Other realistic option is TC Marmoush who I already have.

        1. Fifa las vegas
          • 13 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          Ya I don’t have TC but already have Marmoush. If I knew KdB starts this first game I’ll probably do it though.

  2. Bill Car
    • 15 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Timber or Kiwior?

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Kiwior

  3. BlzE_94
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Bench boost team gtg?

    Raya
    Saliba Gvardiol Munoz
    Salah KDB Saka Rogers Sarr
    Marmoush Mateta

    Martinez Konsa Isak Livramento

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Yeah, that's a great team.

    2. GC123
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Mental team. Your team value must be obscene. I can’t get to KDB. I mean it’s not even close

  4. Lallana_
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Glasner gang, ready for our 2pter again?

  5. Buck The Trent
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    If you have to pick one ?

    A Digne
    B Cast

    A is on some set pieces but has an able deputy in Maatsen

  6. Football99
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 21 days ago

    1) saka or marmoush for captain?
    2) Mbuemo or elanga out for another arsenal mid? But which arsenal mid?

    1. Punned It
        7 months, 21 days ago

        I'm on Saka. I'm not sure anyone's a great pic, but I'm thinking Merino. But Mbuemo amd Elanga could be good differentials, and you can't be too certain about minutes for almost any Arsenal player.

    2. Yordan Letchkov
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Need help!

      2FT, 2.7itb / BB33; FH34

      Raya Martinez
      Saliba Gvardiol Munoz Wan-B Livra
      Salah Saka Rogers Sarr Murphy
      Isak Mateta Marmoush

      A) Livra and Murphy to Bowen and Bradley
      B) Livra and Murphy to DIas and Rashford
      C) anything else?

      Any recommendation is highly appreciated!

      1. jonnybhoy
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Id roll

    3. Will
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      My big decision is

      A. Sarr (x2) Rogers (x2) Agbadou
      or
      B. Rogers (x2) Murphy Burn

      On BB. Free hitting next week so one week punt. Likely doing A for more doublers and to punish Sarr sellers. Agbadou just for value but likely also facing a youth team this week.

    4. Sid07
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      how many minutes savinho is expected to play

      1. Lallana_
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        69

        1. FF Dirtbag
          • 14 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          More like 59

      2. GC123
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        100 maybe. I’m selling for Rogers. Not prepared to play Pep roulette. Could come back to bite me but he hasn’t featured much last 2 GW’s

        1. Sid07
          • 11 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          thinking to sell him for rogers as well

          would you do murphy to rashford/bowen for hit?

          1. GC123
            • 4 Years
            7 months, 21 days ago

            Not for a -4 mate, no. Murphy is bang in form and could match those two doublers. I’d save the 4 points personally

            1. Sid07
              • 11 Years
              7 months, 21 days ago

              thanks
              savinho to rogers it is

    5. AnfieldLad
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Raya Martinez
      Gabriel Gvardiol Munoz Livra Konsa
      Salah Murphy Saka Rashford Sarr
      Marmoush Mateta Isak
      3FT 0.5ITB

      Playing BB

      thinking :

      Gabriel Saka Isak -> Kiwior KDB Wissa ?

      Yay or nay ?

    6. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Who do you consider best mid picks until end of season?
      Not the premium ones.

      1. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Mbeumo, Bowen, Rogers

      2. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Ignoring fixtures and picking on form it's Barnes, Murphy, Diaz and Rogers.

      3. V-2 Schneiderlin
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        I think Elanga will be a good pick based on fixtures and something to play for!

    7. Zenith UK
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I was debating Kerkez & Williams > Kiwior and Wan-Bissaka but AWB is now flagged…

      Saliba & Scarles instead?

      On bench boost.

    8. dapluto
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Murphy and cucurella to Kdb and Kilman. -4
      Or
      Murphy and cucurella to Bowen and kiwilior. -4
      Or just Murphy to bowen

      1. dapluto
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Thank you in advance btw
        Probably worth.mentioning I am chasing a leader and I am 40 pts behind

    9. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Rashford or Eze?

    10. Hooky
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Does Kiwior have any attacking threat at corners or is he one of the blockers? Saliba used to be a blocker when Gabriel was playing but don't know if that's changed and he's now attacking the ball?

      1. BobbyDoesNotLook
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        I am also interested in this.

    11. Skout
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A) Livra to Bradley
      B) Livra to VVD (can afford but not sure I’d want him sitting on bench past this week?
      C) Isak to Watkins

      Raya
      Gvardiol Munoz Kiwior
      Salah Savinho Sarr Saka Rogers
      Marmoush Mateta

      Areola Isak Konsa Livra
      BB33, FH34, 2.7itb, 1FT

    12. Netters2018
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Got 10 dgw with 1ft, on BB, is that enough or risk one more? How many has everyone else looking at?

      Raya,
      Saliba Gvardiol Konsa
      Saka Savinho Rogers Salah

      Bench Boost - Henderson, Milenkovic, Livramento, Isak.

      Worth getting in 1 more villa?
      A) Isak for Watkins?l
      B) Livra for Torres?
      C) Bank FT

      Marmoush Mateta

      1. jonnybhoy
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        C

    13. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Would you do this move for a -4? Using BB Chip this DGW too!

      Merino > Saka ???

      Y or N

      Think Saka will out score him but its a game of chances isn't it lol

    14. SpaceCadet
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Best Livra replacement here? Budget 4.9m.

      Raya Areola
      Saliba gvardiol Munoz Bradley Livra

      1. the thinking one
        • 2 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        I‘m considering N. Williams. Good fixtures till end of season

    15. the thinking one
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Who scores better:

      A) Livramiento (avl)
      B) N. Williams (tot)

      1. Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        A

        1. Q
          • 13 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          Probably the same

      2. jonnybhoy
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        B

    16. Pornchef
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 21 days ago

      1. Saka +de Byrne
      2. Saka + Bowen
      3. Salah + Bowen
      4. Salah + de Byrne

      I am pretty much level at the top of my mini league rival has Salah+Diaz

      1. jonnybhoy
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        4

      2. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        4

    17. outernational
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      If money no object, who is best. Are either rotation risks until the end of the season?

      A: Saliba
      B: Kiwior

      1. Shultan
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        A if money no worries

        1. Q
          • 13 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          A

      2. jonnybhoy
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        A

    18. Shultan
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Foden to KDB or Rashford (for free)

      Murphy > Rogers
      Gabriel > kiwior done

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 12 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        KDB

    19. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      What to do? I've got 1FT + 1.8M ITB

      Raya
      Gvardiol Gabriel** Munoz
      Salah Saka (C) Sarr Savinho Rogers
      Mateta Marmoush

      Areola Isak Livramento Williams

      A) Gabriel to Saliba BB33
      B) Savinho and Gabriel to Kiwior and KDB -4pts BB33
      C) Something else

    20. Q
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Would you bench boost this lot? Seems a bit meh..

      Areola, isak, disasi, Munoz

      1. BobbyDoesNotLook
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Yes

      2. Fifa las vegas
        • 13 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Likely similar to what mine will be.
        Areola, Isak/Palmer, Kerkez, Burn

        Don’t think I will be, will save for maybe the final GW for a bit of fun

    21. Reddonkeyham 42
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      After a poor BB last week, my FH is currently;
      Raya
      Saliba, Gvaridiol, Munoz
      Saka, KDB, Salah, Sarr, Rogers
      Maeta, Marmoush

      Who do I captain leaning KDB in hoping for a huge haul and bit of a differential

      1. shredder
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        same team here except I've Bowen instead of Sarr
        Going Salah capt myself, was either him or KDB

    22. darlo1883
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Raya Martinez
      Gvardiol Saliba Munoz Burn Kerkez
      Salah Saka Sarr Rogers Murphy
      Isak Mateta Marmoush

      Captain?

      1.Saka
      2.Marmoush
      3.Salah

      BB yes or no????

    23. niaz1982
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Last minute updates to below to get more DGW players? 2FT 2.7 ITB

      Raya
      Timber gvardiol munoz
      Salah saka sarr rogers
      Isak marmoush mateta

      Subs: Areola burn dunk Murphy

      Who should come out / come in?

      1. niaz1982
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Dunk > Rubén?
        Areola > Martinez?

    24. Jinswick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Just Palmer -> SAKA (TC)? Plan was to BB but Ederson has stuffed that up.

      RAYA
      SALIBA, GVARDIOL, MUNOZ
      ROGERS, SARR, Palmer, Salah
      MARMOUSH, MATETA, Isak

      EDERSON, Murphy, Livra, Williams
      Bank 0.2m, 1FT, BB. TC, FH left

      1. Al Pacho
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Same here. In the dilemma of who to TC. I’m going for Saka

    25. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Savinho and Glasner -> Rashford/ Eze and Pep worth a hit?

      Got 3x Mci, 3x arsenal and Rogers

      1. Pratik
        • 16 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        I would do it