One of the world’s best FPL managers, Tom Freeman (aka avfc82), is back with his first column of 2020/21. Tom looks at lessons learned from last season, Chelsea’s exciting options and the newly promoted clubs.
With the Premier League full fixture schedule set to be released no later than Friday, it’s time to get those notepads out and start planning.
I’ve got to admit, I’m looking forward to getting back into a more familiar routine in terms of Gameweek deadlines. The relentless nature of Project Restart meant it was hard to keep pace and it’s fair to say that it didn’t suit my playing style at all. There was no time to think, and for those of you who have watched my ‘Meet the Manager’ video, you’ll know how much I value time.
So, how did the 2019/20 season end?
Well, it wasn’t a bad campaign at all, but was somewhat short of where I want to be, finishing with an overall rank of 16,668 – 17 points off my top 10k target.
Why did I fail? Having run a bit of analysis over the last week, I keep coming back to one thing. No, it wasn’t owning Theo Walcott (£6.0m) for three Gameweeks back in November (!), it was chip strategy following the restart, which went like this:
Gameweek 30+ – Free Hit
Gameweek 33+ – Wildcard
Gameweek 34+ – Bench Boost
Had I gone down the Gameweek 30+ Bench Boost route like many did, I’m pretty sure I’d be sat here with a ninth top 10k finish in the bag, but hey, that’s the way it goes sometimes.
I now sit 15th in the Career Hall of Fame, with my updated season history as follows:
Looking ahead to the new season, how good is it to see Mark Sutherns, a true legend of the game, back? With Lateriser and Zophar also offering insight on here, quite a team of contributors is being assembled. I’ll be back too, writing regular columns, plus Spot the Differential, with hopefully a few video appearances thrown in along the way.
As is usually the case during the off-season, Fantasy managers have a lot of time on their hands, and I’ve already seen quite a few strategy guides and threads popping up on social media; the kind of dos and don’ts of FPL. There is nothing wrong with it but to consistently achieve high ranks year in, year out, my advice would be don’t be too rigid and set in your ways – there is no rulebook. Be adaptable, be flexible and don’t be afraid to rip up plans at the last minute.
For sure, there are a few tried and trusted methods I try to stick to, like saving a free transfer whenever possible or holding onto my first Wildcard for as long as I can (early ones rarely work for me), but with one or two clubs possibly being given extra time off by the Premier League having reached the latter stages of European competition, these ideas may be completely redundant in a few weeks’ time – who knows what the new season will throw at us?
Another thing I touched upon in my ‘Meet the Manager’ video, was that it’s worth spending a bit of time now researching the newly promoted sides. Why? Well, you’ll find some solid, cheap picks, and possibly one or two misclassifications, like John Lundstram (£5.5m) and Keinan Davis (£4.5m) last season. Even if you don’t plan on starting with anyone from Leeds United, West Bromwich Albion or Fulham, get that knowledge in place now, so you’re ready to move quickly once the season kicks off.
I’ve also seen a couple of threads suggesting all of the above sides will be slow starters. It doesn’t matter – they can still deliver points, especially offensive players.
Aston Villa and Norwich City lost in Gameweek 1 last season, yet Teemu Pukki and John McGinn (£5.5m) still found the back of the net against Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur respectively. Then, in Gameweek 2, there was Lundstram and Pukki’s double-digit hauls, while Todd Cantwell and Jack Grealish (£7.0m) were also amongst the assists.
David and Neale’s recent articles are a good starting point, while Statsbomb, Stats Perform and All Stats Aren’t We have all written some really good stuff on Leeds.
READ MORE: What to expect from Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa
READ MORE: What to expect from West Brom manager Slaven Bilic
READ MORE: What to expect from Fulham manager Scott Parker
READ MORE: A guide to Leeds United’s FPL defenders
READ MORE: A guide to Leeds United’s FPL midfielders and forwards
READ MORE: A guide to West Brom’s FPL defenders
READ MORE: A guide to West Brom’s FPL midfielders and forwards
It’s also worth listening to those in the community who watch their team’s week in, week out. There are plenty of good posters on the forum and on Twitter, so keep an eye on what they’re saying. I’m not saying blindly follow them (sometimes they get it wrong), but what you will get is a fan’s perspective on what is happening at a club, which can be useful.
In terms of transfers, it’s understandably been a bit of a slow window so far, but Chelsea’s new signings are firmly on my radar. Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m) is at a peak age to excel, while Timo Werner (£9.5m) could be a steal and should settle quickly, as most Bundesliga imports do. Add in Christian Pulisic (£8.5m), and this team is going to be a lot of fun next season. If they can resolve their issues at the back, I think they could turn out to be the best of the rest behind Manchester City and Liverpool.
Talking of City, Ferran Torres (£7.0m) probably isn’t going to be an option from the off but looks like a decent dribbler with plenty of potential. He’s been playing as a right midfielder in a 4-4-2 at Valencia, so it’ll be interesting to see how Pep Guardiola uses him, and how he adapts to a more possession-based system.
Tomas Soucek (£5.0m) and Nathan Ferguson (£4.0m) could be solid enablers too, but as is the case with everyone, fixtures will dictate whether or not they are genuine options.
Regarding motivation for the new season, I’ll leave this quote from ESPN reporter David Aldridge, which is taken from the superb Netflix documentary ‘The Last Dance’, and talks about ‘The Separator’ and Michael Jordan’s quest for three Championships in a row:
A lot of the people in that era, that you would consider Michael’s peers had won two in a row. Isiah had won two straight, Magic had won two straight… but, none of them had won three in a row. The third championship was the Separator. You win three and you’re on Mount Rushmore. So, for that team it was all about winning a third straight.
You can think of a sixth top 1k finish as my ‘Separator’ – let’s see if I can nail it.
Finally, there will be a lot of ‘noise’ out there over the next few weeks. All I’d say is don’t get too influenced by others, play your own game and most importantly, have some fun!
Thanks for reading…
Best players by position:
- Goalkeepers: Budget
- Goalkeepers: Premium
- Defenders: Budget
- Defenders: Mid-Price and Premium
- Midfielders: Budget
- Midfielders: Mid-Price
- Midfielders: Premium
- Forwards: Budget
- Forwards: Mid-Price
- Forwards: Premium
