Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are firefighting ahead of Friday’s deadline, with many well-owned players flagged as doubts or unavailable. Increasingly, thoughts are turning to an early Gameweek 21 Wildcard.
WHY A GAMEWEEK 21 WILDCARD IS UNDER CONSIDERATION
The idea has been gaining traction as the week has gone on.
It was already known that Son Heung-min (£9.8m), Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) et al would be unavailable, thanks to their international commitments.
What FPL managers didn’t count on was injuries to Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m), Jarrod Bowen (£8.1m), Michael Olise (£5.9m) and even bench fodder options like Charlie Taylor (£4.0m).
Some Fantasy bosses had moved early to snap up the likes of Alexander-Arnold and Bowen – a combined 1.1 million ‘transfers in’ have been spent on these two – to beat the price rises, only to see their new acquisitions pick up injuries.
There’s also the uncertainty over whether Erling Haaland (£13.9m) is going to be fit for Saturday’s trip to Newcastle United.
And so, after a slow start in our on-site poll, just over one in five voters say they are activating the Wildcard ahead of Friday’s deadline.
GAMEWEEK 21 WILDCARD: THE PROS AND CONS
Tom Freeman discussed Gameweek 21 as a possible Wildcard window in an article a week ago.
The landscape has changed so much already since then, thanks to those aforementioned absences.
PROS
- The first argument for a Gameweek 21 Wildcard we’ve already addressed: injuries and unavailability. Some FPL teams are littered with more red and yellow flags than a North Macedonian embassy, so getting any starting XI out – let alone a competitive one – will be a tall order. There’s still time for the situation to get worse yet, as there could be undeclared fitness issues in 10 pre-match press conferences that will be held after Friday’s deadline.
- Making plans to get Erling Haaland in. The big Norwegian has been back in some form of training for a few weeks, although has yet to make a matchday appearance since December 6. A start against Newcastle United in Gameweek 21 looks doubtful, then, but he subsequently has 18 days to ready himself for the visit of Burnley – the sort of fixture you’d want him back for. Keeping some funds in the bank for that eventuality, or even buying him now, would be a sage move.
- Preparing for the mini-blanks and doubles ahead. Speaking of Haaland, he and his Manchester City teammates will enjoy a Double Gameweek at some point soon(ish). This will involve the Brentford match that was postponed in Gameweek 18. Gameweek 25/28 have been mooted as possibilities (as seen in Mikkel Tokvam’s graphic below) as they are the two midweeks in which we know that City won’t have any other fixture on.
Liverpool could be doubling in Gameweek 24/25, too, should they reach the EFL Cup final and their Gameweek 26 fixture against Luton Town need to be rescheduled. Spurs v Chelsea would also be off in Gameweek 26 if the Blues defeat Middlesbrough in their EFL Cup semi-final.
- Replace Son/Salah but leave cash in the bank. The premium midfielders could be back at any time from Gameweek 22 onwards; the likelihood is that it will be a bit later than that. Being able to put together a strong squad to cope with their absences, while leaving cash in the bank to deal with their eventual returns, is a definite boon.
- Move on rotation risks. It may not be for another Gameweek or three but the return from injury of Messrs Haaland and De Bruyne will soon render Julian Alvarez (£7.0m) a rotation risk. Sheffield United’s capture of Ben Brereton Diaz (£5.0m) is a bit of a concern regarding well-owned budget forward Cameron Archer (£4.5m), too, with both players capable of playing out on the left flank or up front. Then there are the low-cost gems like Jamaal Lascelles (£4.1m) who look to have lost their place.
- Tap into Brighton’s run. The Seagulls don’t play again in Europe until after Gameweek 27, so there is less of the rotation risk that plagued Albion assets in the first half of 2023/24. With Pervis Estupinan (£4.9m) back fit, Pascal Gross (£6.4m) among the division’s leading creators and the penalty-taking Joao Pedro (£5.4m) now getting more domestic minutes, there are plenty of upsides in targeting an attacking team that play seven of the bottom 10 clubs from Gameweeks 21-28. Aston Villa have a similarly favourable run during this period.
CONS
- Just how bad *is* your squad? If you’re sitting there looking at 8-9 flags of varying shades; fair enough, it might be time to Wildcard. But there is a sense that a -4 hit or even just free transfers might be enough this week. Faced with playing a bench fodder option like Sheffield United’s Aaron Trusty (£3.9m) or Luton Town’s Teden Mengi (£4.0m) as one of your XI? It’s not ideal, granted, but a West Ham side devoid of several attacking players and a Burnley outfit fighting for survival like the Hatters aren’t exactly the most formidable foes.
- Who are the key targets anyway? It’s all well and good feeling the urge to ship out the likes of Salah, Son and Alexander-Arnold but there isn’t exactly a massive queue of convincing must-haves while they’re on international duty. Many of the touted replacements, like Richarlison (£6.9m) and Diogo Jota (£7.8m), haven’t exactly been trustworthy names over the years, while there’s a definite minutes risk with Jota even with Salah away. Do we really want to be activating the most valuable chip in the game for a handful of short-term punts, some of whom will likely make way anyway when the big guns return?
- Alexander-Arnold could only miss one game. If the right-back’s injury was the one that tipped you over the edge, then a reminder that his three-week timeline could see him on course for a Gameweek 22 return. If owners can muddle through Gameweek 21 without him, they could see the chance-creating, bonus-gobbling defender return immediately at the back-end of January.
- Weeks of the transfer window still to come. With three weeks of the transfer window remaining, we could see a whole host of players coming and going at most Premier League clubs. A few of those could seriously alter the FPL landscape and leave early Wildcarders high and dry come early February. Imagine Ivan Toney (£7.9m) getting bags of chances at Arsenal or Dominic Solanke (£7.1m) becoming a rotation risk at Newcastle…
- Longer-term Blank/Double Gameweek picture still unclear. While tentative plans can be put in place for the first wave of mini-blanks and doubles, so much is still unknown. Chelsea’s 1-0 midweek EFL Cup loss to Middlesbrough and Liverpool’s slender first-leg lead over Fulham means that even Blank Gameweek 26 is not the surety it seemed for those two teams. Then there’s the uncertainty over how many clubs will blank in Gameweek 29, which doubles will fall in Gameweek 34/37, the date awaited for Bournemouth v Luton Town… we could go on.
POSSIBLE DRAFT WILDCARD TEAMS
DRAFT 1: STRENGTH IN DEPTH
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