With nine matchdays’ worth of results and data to call upon, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are able to make increasingly informed decisions when it comes to their Gameweek 10 transfer plans.
Whether they’re doing so is open for debate!
At the time of writing, a mixture of form, fixtures and injuries are influencing the following activity in the transfer market:
Above: As of Tuesday night, the most bought (left) and most sold (right) players ahead of Gameweek 10
Accordingly, we’re back with another instalment of ‘Buy, keep or sell?’, where we analyse the FPL transfer trends and share our thoughts on some of the players making their way into or out of our squads en masse ahead of Saturday’s deadline.
DECLAN RICE
It’s now three attacking returns in four matches for Declan Rice (£6.6m), whose latest successful set piece delivery – this one a free-kick – earned him an assist for Arsenal’s winner against Crystal Palace.
Rice’s popularity began to grow in the early weeks of the campaign when he paired consecutive assists with a defensive contribution (DefCon)-earning performance against Liverpool in Gameweek 3. His surprise benching against Nottingham Forest scared some prospective buyers off, but that was always bound to happen at some stage with the well-stocked Gunners competing on four fronts – and to date it remains the only Premier League game he hasn’t started, lasting comfortably past the 75-minute mark in the rest of them.
That’s seen Rice rack up four assists – the joint second-most in the division – and a goal, and he’s twice (including last weekend) been a single defensive action away from picking up two more sets of DefCon earnings to add to the pair he’s already got. Seven total bonus points across his last five outings, plus three clean sheets in that time thanks to Arsenal’s stellar defence highlight another few routes to points, meanwhile.
In terms of his underlying numbers, 16 total chances created ranks near the top of the standings for all outfielders, and so too does his four Opta-defined ‘big chance’ creations:
Both of those stats are, in turn, also the best among Mikel Arteta’s troops, as are Rice’s 99 successful passes in the final third of the pitch and his 13 successful crosses. All that while averaging eight DefCon actions per 90 is the mark of a pretty solid FPL all-rounder, with Rice’s shooting stats – eight attempts in total, three from inside the box, two big chances – his only area where there could be some improvement in that respect, if we’re being picky.
A good replacement for someone like Tijjani Reijnders (£5.6m) if you have a little extra in the bank, the main hurdle to overcome for many FPL managers looking to buy Rice is that we’re only allowed three Arsenal assets!
Many will own at least one if not two (or three) defenders, plus at least one of Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.0m), both of whom are difficult to part ways with despite their recent blanks given the Gunners’ next two games in particular. With Eberechi Eze (£7.6m) also demanding attention, fitting Rice in suddenly seems a lot harder.
If you can do so, though, Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes (£6.5m) is the only midfielder at that price who can currently rival Rice for form. Given his role in set pieces, which Arsenal are so dominant at, the England international looks like a great pick-up, especially with his upcoming fixtures.
VERDICT: BUY
JOAO PEDRO
We said last week that we’d reassess Joao Pedro (£7.5m), given the Chelsea forward’s form and underlying goal threat stats have waned considerably recently.
Well, Gameweek 9 brought a fifth straight blank and another match without an attempt on goal for the Brazilian, who created one chance in the Blues’ loss to Sunderland but is continuing his fall from the heights of his previously enormous FPL ownership.
Liam Delap (£6.2m) is seemingly fit again, providing Chelsea with a more polished centre forward – which Enzo Maresca remains confident is how to get the best out of Pedro, who can then operate as more of a No 10.
Tottenham Hotspur away is far from the easiest of games (despite Spurs winning just one of four Premier League games on their own turf under Thomas Frank), but after that it’s the struggling backlines of Wolverhampton Wanderers (h) and Burnley (a) in consecutive outings, followed by Leeds United (a) in Gameweek 14. In isolation, those fixtures make it difficult to advocate for selling Pedro.
But he has also just blanked against Manchester United, Brighton and Hove Albion, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, none of whom have been defensively airtight this season. When you factor in that form, growing question marks over his guaranteed gametime and the fact that Arsenal (h) are coming to visit in a few short weeks, the decision to ditch him feels easier.
That’s without even considering the replacements you could bring in, from Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.7m) – whose appeal from this Gameweek 10 entry point was previously discussed by Tom – and Nick Woltemade (£7.5m) to an even cheaper forward we’ll discuss shortly.
VERDICT: SELL
MOHAMMED KUDUS
Just two Gameweeks ago, Mohammed Kudus (£6.8m) had delivered a season-best 12-point haul after scoring his first goal for Spurs and taking himself to a league-high five assists for the season.
But after successive blanks, the ‘transfers out’ page shows the Ghanaian’s FPL ownership is quickly dwindling as his fixtures begin to turn. Indeed, in both the short (three Gameweek) and long (10 Gameweek) term, the Lilywhites rank firmly towards the bottom of our Fixture Ticker.
Kudus remains involved in much of the good work that Spurs do going forward, and was even close to another assist last weekend thanks to his continued role in set plays.
But his ultimate blank despite his team winning 3-0, a slight drop in underlying attacking stats (both creative and in terms of direct goal threat) and the lack of additional appeal from DefCon points – though he has come close on a couple of occasions – in light of his tricky upcoming fixture run all mean now could be a decent time to offload Kudus.
That could be for Rice, for example, as well as someone like Guimaraes – who has decent fixtures himself – or Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez (£6.7m), along with the in-form Red Devil Bryan Mbeumo (£8.1m) – a player we suggested buying last week – if you have some spare cash.
VERDICT: SELL – BUT NOT A PRIORITY
MICKY VAN DE VEN
One of Kudus’s teammates, however, put together an all-time great performance in Gameweek 9.
That was of course Micky Van de Ven (£4.7m), who nodded in two first-half goals from corners to go with his clean sheet, DefCon points and maximum bonus for a huge 23 FPL points.
Van de Ven was already the third most-owned defender in the game, but the best part of a million managers benched him for that haul while plenty others will have sold him after four straight blanks.
Still, with three Premier League goals to his name he’s now the most prolific FPL defender so far this season.
But is it worth buying him, or have non-owners now missed the boat?
Well, those two close-range headed goals at the Hill Dickinson were van de Ven’s only attempts of the match, and of his five previous shots this season, he’d also scored the only other one that was put on target. Spurs have taken a lot of corners, so you’d expect him to keep getting chances, but maybe don’t expect that conversion rate to continue across the season.
With that being said, upcoming opponents United and Chelsea are both in the top half of the table for set-piece shots conceded, but Fulham – for their various struggles elsewhere – have been less vulnerable in that regard while Newcastle United and Arsenal have given up the fewest such chances in the division.
Half of his cumulative expected goals (xG, 0.77 out of 1.55) came from Sunday’s match alone, meanwhile, and assists aren’t likely to come regularly from this centre half. His DefCon points against Everton were also the first time Van de Ven has reached the threshold this season, although he could do so more often versus some of these attack-minded opponents on the horizon – particularly while picking up some of that workload from the injured Cristian Romero (£5.0m).
So, owners need not be in any rush to sell van de Ven despite his tricky fixtures. At the same time, though, he probably needn’t be a priority purchase for those FPL managers gawking at his most recent Gameweek score.
VERDICT: KEEP
VIRGIL VAN DIJK
From one Dutch centre-back to another, we turn our attention to Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m).
Liverpool’s ever-present captain, now 34, has looked unusually shaky at times this season, by no means helped by the title holders’ overall dip in form, some equally – if not more – shaky performances by fellow central defender Ibrahima Konate (£5.4m), and ongoing instability in both full-back positions.
With the Reds losing four on the trot domestically, his only source of FPL points recently has been through the DefCon route; van Dijk has reached the required threshold for defensive actions in four of his last five matches and six of his nine league outings altogether, one of few defenders to do so.
He showcased his attacking capability with a powerful headed goal from a corner in the recent Champions League rout of Eintracht Frankfurt, but van Dijk has offered little else in attack so far this season aside from the Gameweek 8 loss to United, in which he racked up half his overall campaign tallies for shots in the box (2/4) and big chances (1/2).
Still, Liverpool do have among the best upcoming fixtures in the division, including some against teams (Aston Villa, Forest, and particularly West Ham United) that give up plenty of chances from set plays.
And with van Dijk about as nailed as it gets at Anfield, there are probably higher priorities ‘sells’ to be worried about. Arne Slot’s men are struggling at the moment, but this next run of games (at least from Gameweek 12 onwards) presents as good a chance as they’ll get to get back in form.
Selling probably only makes real sense if you desperately need the money for an upgrade elsewhere and are comfortable going without Liverpool’s best defender for the foreseeable as a result, or if he’s taking up a premium defensive slot in your squad that could otherwise be used for an Arsenal asset.
VERDICT: KEEP – FOR NOW
IGOR THIAGO
Few would have predicted that Igor Thiago (£6.2m) would trail only Erling Haaland (£14.7m) for FPL points among forwards at this stage of the season, but the Brentford frontman is very much thriving at present.
He’s not necessarily a chance-creating forward in the mold of his countryman Evanilson (£7.0m), meaning his route to points largely appears limited to goals, but the Brazilian now has six of those this season and seems to be the Bees’ first-choice penalty taker.
Those successful efforts are backed up by a high volume of shots (22) and shots in the box (20), four more of which arrived in Gameweek 9’s victory over Liverpool as well as three of his 11 total big chances. Thiago’s 12 shots on target this season also rank him second only to Haaland and Mateta among all Premier League players.
The Gameweek 10 and 11 fixtures away to Crystal Palace and home to Newcastle aren’t the most appealing, meaning Thiago is probably only a ‘buy’ just now if you’re in immediate need of a budget-friendly striker.
However, from Gameweek 12 onwards, Brentford’s fixtures brighten up considerably through the New Year:
VERDICT: BUY (IF YOU NEED A CHEAP FORWARD) OR WAIT TIL GAMEWEEK 12
