Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. Fire Chief Moe
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Okay guys help me out:

    A)Tomkins, Boly, Firmino
    B) Luiz, Robertson, Zaha

    Both would mean 3 Pool & 3 City. A would probably mean Mendy, Tomkins and Boly starting everyweek, whereas B would have Robbo, Mendy and Luiz, with AWB and Peltier on the bench.

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Got to be B really, Luiz and Robertson should make up the gap between Firmino and Zaha

      1. Fire Chief Moe
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Im on B now so Ill keep that.

  2. Miro
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Chances of Bonatini starting first few games?

    1. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      20%

  3. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    a) Jota (3-5-2)
    b) Maddison (3-5-2)
    c) King (3-4-3)
    d) Mitro (3-4-3)

    1. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      C

    2. GAMBIT
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      C

    3. Miro
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A

  4. Tmel
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Really on the fence on Mahrez - can someone talk me in or out of him? Should be well advanced and we know he can deliver goals and assists - could he be sacrificed early though or potentially not start vs Huddersfield?

    1. jiGGidyJ1
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Same here, I don't like the uncertainty, so I found an extra 0.5 and went with Eriksen instead

    2. DeathoftheParty
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Bilva first name on the team sheet, apparently. Pep definitely says stuff like that to mess with us...

    3. Eden Wizard
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Of course he’s high risk.

  5. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Would you prefer Mkhitaryan over Richarlison?

    1. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Not yet

  6. amit1964
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    please, is cedric ok to start?

    1. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      No

      1. amit1964
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        is he ill or injurd? for how long?

  7. Cilly Bonnolly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Any word on Ramsey? Likely to start?

  8. Limit80
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A or B for GW1-4?

    A
    Allison
    ROBBO-Mendy-Tomkins
    SALAH-Mahrez-Jota-Madd-Rich
    Kun-Zaha-King
    (4.0-awb-Peltier)

    B
    Hart
    TAA-Mendy-Tomkins
    ERIKSEN-Mahrez-Jota-Madd-Rich
    Kun-FIRMINO-King
    (4.0-awb-Peltier)

  9. FantasyNik123
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Cedric - will he start???

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Hughes is willing to put him straight into the first team if he’s back from his holiday

    2. amit1964
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      for mt to,it is the last thing i have to dill with

  10. It’s gonna Ben Mee
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on this lot for GW1?

    Patricio
    Robertson Wan-Bissaka Cedric
    Salah(c) Bilva Richarlison Jota Pedro
    Aguero Auba

    Bench: Ederson Kamara Tarkowski Peltier

  11. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    I've three Man City players - Aguero, Mendy & Mahrez?

    How nailed are each in terms of percentage?

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Check your last post. Percentages are pointless.

    2. Agger
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      85 - 95 - 60

      1. CelticBhoy1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Fair guess, cheers

      2. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        This

  12. llmja
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Eriksen+King or Mahrez+Arnie

    Thank you

  13. Baberto
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A. Mili+brooks
    B. Townsend+Fraser

  14. fplbest
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Please Help!

    Jota or someone else with the same price?

    Luiz or Mina or Bellerin or PVA or someone else with the same price?

    King or someone else with the same price?

    Many thnxs beforehand!

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Jota

      PVA

  15. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A) Mane or Auba?

    B) Luiz or Pva?

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A) Of couse Auba, huge different in terms of price.

      B) PVA attacking threat + cs potential

  16. Thinkering like a Boss
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Having Only Salah & TAA is enough for Liv? Or do I need Mane/Firmino too?

    1. amit1964
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      you will be better with one of theme...................i have them all

  17. Ady87
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Last one.

    A) Hazard & Laca
    B) Mahrez & Auba

    1. Miro
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      B easily

    2. Ady87
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Feel Hazard will play every min every week and Mahrez/Bilva will regularly be hooked or benched for Jesus/Sterling/Sane

      1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Not GW1 he won’t.

    3. Fabio20
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      B - Hazard won't start the season, Auba > Laca imo

  18. Fabio20
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    How long will Luke Shaw keep his place?

    1. Numb
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Until Young is back (soon) unless he really impresses

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      2 weeks max imo

    3. Markus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      1-3 weeks

    4. Agger
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      How long is a piece of string?

  19. deleallicious
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Rich, Siggy or Jota? Or someone else up to 7.5.

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Bilva

      1. deleallicious
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Sorry, already got Bilva.

  20. Prestige_Worldwide
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Jose has confirmed Valencia & Dalot are out but Young is a game time decision, should I swap Shaw to Darmian, I will be going with one of them?

    1. Eden Wizard
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Darmian RB, Shaw LB. Young to RB if he’s fit.

    2. Fabio20
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      How long is Valencia out for? I have the same dilemma

  21. HAMMERTIME107
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    I currently have Lucas Moura And Richarlison,

    Should I swap Richarlsion for Jota or Madison?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      No

      1. HAMMERTIME107
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        I just worry he will do the same as last year, looking for the long haul??

  22. Typo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Looking for some insight form an Arsenal man

    Is Lacazette nailed?

    1. Markus
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      No, if Ramsey fit I wouldn't expect him to start vs city

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      No

    3. Ode
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Not nailed but should start most games, played well in pre-season

  23. La Vida Latte
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Is Holebas nailed on for Watford? The Watford fans doesn´t seem to like him? Anybody know why?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      He is I'd say

    2. OPTA FPL
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      because they bought a new LB

      1. La Vida Latte
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Who have they bought? Will he oust Holebas from the starting eleven?

        1. Shatner's Bassoon
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 5 months ago

          Adam Masina - but Holebas played 90 the last friendly so would imagine he plays vs Brighton.

          1. La Vida Latte
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 5 months ago

            But not in the long run? Better to look elsewhere maybe...

  24. Mayor of Flair
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Please need help

    A. Jaffa cake

    B. Chocolate digestive

    C. Wait another hour

    Thanks

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Toffypop

      1. Mayor of Flair
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 5 months ago

        Not in the budget

        1. BadgersBoys
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 5 months ago

          C then

          1. Mayor of Flair
            • 11 Years
            7 years, 5 months ago

            Probably the right call, way too early

  25. Mooster©️
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A) DDG+Mee
    B) Foster+Alonso

    1. Azathoth
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A

  26. Ode
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    D Luiz or Bailly?

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      Bailly

  27. Kroos Kontrol
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    A) Arnie + Richarlison/Jota (I have both)
    B) Mitrovic + Bernardo

    Bernardo comes in from the extra 0.5, already have Kun

    1. Shatner's Bassoon
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      A

  28. GuillermoDickero
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Looking for the next Mili at 5.0m. Thoughts on the below?

    A) Cairney - Seems to be the most popular round here. 6 goals, 5 assists last year. However, he's not on set pieces from what I can tell...

    B) Ralls - Seems a bit overlooked on here - 7 goals, 5 assists last year. Seems to be potentially on all set pieces.... any Cardiff fans know if he's on pens?

    C) Neves - Another that is interesting - 6 goals, 1 assist. On set pieces for wolves including pens...

    Looking at this, if anything I'm leaning towards Ralls. Be interested to hear who people are going for and why 🙂

  29. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Peltier most nailed 4 def after WB?

    1. Mayor of Flair
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 5 months ago

      YA

  30. Kaptenen
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 5 months ago

    Best mid for 5 mil? Anyone fancy Brooks or is he a rotation risk?