Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. okidoki358
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Patricio (Hamer)
    Robertson - Stones - B.Davis - (Wan-Bisaka - Bednarek)
    Mane - Eriksen - Jota - B.Silva (Ghuendozi)
    King - Auba - Aguero

    Any thoughts ? G2G?

    1. FredrikH
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      G2G to the RMT article.

    2. seanysheep
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Nope because salah

  2. GE
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Play Luiz from the start or rotate Tomkins and Doherty (+0.5 itb) as the 3rd defender in 3-4-3?

    1. Kinder Mbueno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Tempted by the latter

  3. Goat
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    So I had a dream last night that Van Dijk scores against west ham this weekend. Then I see mark has him ahead of Robertson. Getting itchy fingers.

    (I have Robbo)

    1. Kinder Mbueno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Same.. final decisions are the toughest!

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I’ve had VVD all preseason, was convinced in getting him.

      The lure of Mané, Firmino, Salah has proved too strong though & he has been cut.

      So he will DEFINITELY score vs West Ham lol

  4. Gabbiadini
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    PVA or Luiz?

    1. Goat
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      PVA.

  5. Everyday im Schneiderlin
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    final dilemma to the jigsaw

    1 is fabianski nailed?
    2 any 4.0 playing gk?
    3 best 6.0 striker? currently on rondon
    4 best 5.0 midfielder currently on neves

    1. seanysheep
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      1. No
      2. No (stekelenberg for a week maybe)
      3. Rondon/austin/ings?
      4.cairney

    2. Chockky
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      1. I think he is 75% but not completely
      2. Skel of Everton has best chance week 1, Hamer of Hud has best chance of playing this season at some point so I read
      3 Gray of Watford as Newcastle have hard fixtures for Rondon. Barnes of Burnley may get some goals and minutes
      4. Ralls and murphy of Cardiff may do well. Kenedy( cant play GW3 as of parent club) brooks could be decent but im unsure

      1. Everyday im Schneiderlin
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        cheers to both replies

  6. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Is Cedric nailed?

    1. Goat
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Not to start this weekend

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      read tweets on home page. favourable but not nailed... i'd be surprised if he doesn't play tho

    3. QPRUTD
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      from next week probably

    4. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Sh!te defence anyway wouldn't go near him.
      The last fella I heard that was really nailed was Jesus.
      He seems to have lost his place no sign of him in the last 2000 years. But some think he will make an appearance

  7. Kinder Mbueno
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Walker or Mendy
    VVD or Robbo
    Arnie or Mitro

    Final decisions decisions

    1. Ashers74
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Mendy Robbo Arnie for me ..

  8. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    I was half expecting Hudson-Odoi to be in the article above.
    I have the feeling he could turn into the fans favorite sub even when Hazard comes back.
    He sould be getting at least 20/30 minutes against tired legs?

    1. Kinder Mbueno
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      He would still only be bench fodder

      1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Fair point.
        But I was thinking 20/30 minutes for a top side as an attacking player v a full 90 from a weak side for a defensive midfielder type.

        1. Kinder Mbueno
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 4 months ago

          Would he be in your starting 11 though, ever?
          Could have potential value increases if the casuals bandwagon I suppose

          1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
            • 16 Years
            7 years, 4 months ago

            I doubt he will be in my starting eleven.
            I am still tempted to have him as first sub gw1 ahead of Wan Bisska.

  9. Limit80
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A Allison/Rob/Salah/Madd/Zaha
    B Hart/TAA/Eriksen/Mane/Firmino

    1. Baberto
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A)ny day

  10. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Jota or Richarlison? Currently on Richarlison.

    1. Goat
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Rich

    2. Mr-Inbetween
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Rich for me, due to my lack of trust in promoted sides

    3. Granville
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Jota for me.

    4. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Thanks all, will probably keep swapping up until the deadline.

    5. Ashers74
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Have both and feel Rich will be the first to go ..

    6. Live Lad
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Jota for me. I think it is nice to have one 6.5 mid. A lot of good options around that price which will allow us to switch.

  11. Saurabh.gupta
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Now that Man Utd couldn't sign any cb in the transfer window. Who is likely going to start as cb for them?

    1. Danstoke82
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I’ve gone with Bailly

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Is he still injured ?

        1. Danstoke82
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 4 months ago

          Apparently not

          1. AriseSirGiggsy
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 4 months ago

            source?

  12. Danstoke82
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Rubbish question but does anyone know if Norris is Wolves 2nd keeper? Own Patricio as my 4.5 but need a half decent 4.0 to go with him

    1. fiveyears
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Should be Ruddy. Only 4.5/4.0 combo I could find is Ryan and Button at Brighton.

      1. krzys
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Also Begović and Boruc.

  13. Ógie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Total players has just crossed the 4 million threshold.

    Will it make the 5 million mark before the deadline?

  14. Baberto
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A. 5-3-2 with
    Mo Mili Richarli Cairney Brooks
    Auba Kun Quaner

    B. 5-2-3
    Mo Bilva Cairney Fraser/brooks Stephens
    Kun Bobby King/tosun

    If A, Mili+Brooks or Townsend+Fraser?

  15. Snooze ya lose
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Firmino or mane?

    1. Baberto
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Bobby

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Beginning to think that myself. Will have to downgrade mane tho.

  16. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts on United v Leicester? Bore draw?

    1. Baberto
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Likely. Or a sanchez goal.

    2. Andrew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      No United win

    3. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Maddison Magic

    4. Goat
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      1-0 Sánchez goal

  17. Andrew
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A. Fabianski Bavies Mendy Robertson
    B. DDG Mendy Robertson £4.5m

    1. Baberto
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Cs count for fab+bavies

      1. Baberto
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Less than ddg+tomkins

    2. Ashers74
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      B

  18. Granville
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    I have Aguero, Bilva and Mendy. Still undecided about Bilva. No Spurs cover so considering swapping him out for Lucas Moura and saving 0.5m.

    Any opinions on Moura?

    1. SheBangsTheDrums
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Considering exactly the same.

      Also thinking that allows me to bring in Lloris and 4.0 rather than 2 playing 4.5s

    2. Andrew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Very short term

      1. Granville
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Is it though? Depends how he performs. Son will be away for a month so there is an attacking slot up for grabs..

    3. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Not convinced on Bilva either, a frustrating player to own I reckon.

      I think you would need to own Lucas over an extended period of time to benefit, don’t think he will be explosive in his returns.

    4. OldBenKenobi
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      worth a pun for a few GWs but have a decent bench I guess. Davies is my Spurs cover 😉

    5. MikeyPanther
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Not sure I’d go for any Spurs players other than Eriksen. But Moura has decent pre- season form, with ‘Sick Note’ Lamela and Son away soon this is Moura’s opportunity.

      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah, Moura my only Spuds asset. Not sure how they'll start the season but he's cheap enough for a punt.

    6. Pompel
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I'm doing the same - main reason being it gives more flexibility to select City mid of choice in 2-3 GWs, as can choose to either offload Moura or Mané (since already having Mendy + Kun)

      1. Andy_Social
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Both are ridiculously good value for GW1 though. Obvs I gottem both!

    7. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I think I’m downgrading BSilva to Townsend and upgrading Costa to Jota..

  19. cheekumz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Foster, Fabianski & Milivojevic/Jota

    OR

    Ryan, 4.0 & Townsend

    I dont actually mind having Ryan as a set and forget. He provides excellent value his points per $ is top notch if he matches last years score. I think in terms of points per $ hes better than either Foster or Fab, but if you get the rotations right the playing pair could do better. :S confused.

  20. Benster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Morning all,

    I'm trying to find some stats on last season's Premier League players and also Championship players to see how many times players like Arnie, Zaha, Jota and Mitro scored a brace etc. So I need something that works for both Prem and Champ divisions, and breaks down the stats on a game by game basis. Have tried understat.com and whoscored.com and neither seem to be ideal.

    Any help please?

    1. luke25
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Soccerbase is pretty good

      1. Benster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Luke you're a legend! That's perfect thanks 🙂

        1. luke25
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 4 months ago

          You're welcome!

  21. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Short term punt!

    A) BSilva

    B) Moura

    1. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

  22. MarcoPolo1254
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    My first RMT

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Before you continue, let me suggest that you put it in the RMT article if you haven't already 😉

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/09/rmt-collection-legomane/

      1. FPL ZB
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        hahaaa excellent

      2. MarcoPolo1254
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        I haven’t, I’m new so just spamming the comments like a pleb

    2. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Like it

  23. ignis88
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Yerri Mina chances to start? I'm guessing right about 0 ha

    1. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Tomorrow? Too soon, I'd say.

  24. No_Mo_Salah?
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Do stick with Auba or get Laca?! Thought I was done but article has raised some doubts... Alternative is Firmino and switch to Laca later if need be...

    1. Kiwi Don
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Wait and see if laca starts and switch when good fixtures from gw3

    2. moz_1983
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Thinking the same! I have a 4.5m striker and a 4.5m mid, downgrading means being able to significantly improve one of those bench warmers.

  25. moz_1983
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A) Auba / Dilva / Stephens
    or
    B) Laca / 9.5m / Cairney

    1. SheBangsTheDrums
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

  26. Kiwi Don
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    I hate it, why can't teams post team lists the week of the game so I am not sweating on risky picks.2nd guessing my team, aargh.

  27. OldBenKenobi
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    So many last minute changes....
    Robertson > VVD done! 😯

    1. Andrew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Can I ask why? Robertson a rotation risk?

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        yeah just that slight doubt putting me off.
        VVD due a goal or two also

  28. ElliotJHP
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Need this season to kick off so productivity can resume

  29. DOGS
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Danny Ings anyone??

    1. ignis88
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      keeping an eye on him

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Aye. I'm even starting him, even if Sparky doesn't!

  30. Everyday im Schneiderlin
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    whats the deal on jorginho chelsea will he play much?

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Most nailed Chelsea mid in the team, but won't set the FPL world on fire

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Every game.