Pro Pundits - Zophar

Analysing the recovery period between matches and its impact on FPL

With the FA Cup fixtures causing a longer-than-usual Gameweek, we finally have some time to take stock of the landscape after a hectic period of three Fantasy Premier League deadlines in 10 days.

This is the longest break we will have for a while, with the next three deadlines coming thick and fast. We only have the TV schedule for Gameweeks 33-35 so far and certain teams have been afforded longer rest periods compared to others as the below table shows:

As mentioned in my earlier piece on the Christmas schedule, “recent research has shown that muscle injury risk increases by almost 20% when recovery time is reduced from six to three days”.

It concluded that fixture congestion and insufficient recovery time between matches are two of the major risk factors associated with injuries and suggested that players should have at least 96 hours between matches in order to recover fully. Beyond the 96-hour period, there were no significant gains observed.

Few teams are afforded the luxury of a 96-hour rest in this period, and the teams closest to that are in green in the table. Teams closer to 72 hours are in yellow and below 72 are in red.

The average total rest period is 265 hours so in the final column, teams around that number are in yellow, below that are in red, and teams well above the average are in green.

The problem with this table is that it exaggerates the total recovery period for the non-FA Cup teams. For example, Burnley have 134 hours of recovery for Gameweek 33+ which makes their total recovery period look favourable (277 hours) despite just 76 and 67 hours recovery for their next matches, but as quoted above, beyond 96 hours the recovery gains are minimal.

Players still ideally need 96 hours to recover for the next match even if they have had 100+ hours of rest prior.

I still wanted to include this table though as it does, however, emphasise how difficult the schedule is for Liverpool (205), Manchester City (210) and Sheffield United (209). Chelsea (231), Newcastle (227), Norwich (229), Spurs (233) and West Ham (227) have it tough as well.

The below chart looks at only the period between Gameweeks 33-35, ignoring the exaggerated rest periods for teams not involved in the FA Cup:

The average total rest period is 163 hours so in the final column, teams around that number are in yellow, below that are in red, and teams well above the average are in green.

Manchester United have 217 hours of rest between their three matches, the most favourable schedule. This is great news for those investing in their assets as rotation should be minimal and performance levels can stay consistent. Wolves also have a relatively relaxed schedule with 183 hours of recovery.

Chelsea, on the other hand, have just 161 hours of rest time. City and Liverpool have extremely compressed schedules with just 141 hours and 139 hours respectively; that’s over three days less than the Red Devils.

Everton and Spurs have reason to be aggrieved as well, with just 132 and 137 hours of recovery time respectively, the lowest in the league. Burnley, Newcastle, Sheffield United and West Ham assets will also need to be monitored with their short recovery periods.

Rotation seems far more likely for these teams in red and drops in performance levels are to be expected as well, especially for teams near the bottom of the table who can’t afford to rotate.

This also makes me ask the following questions:            

1. What to do with Liverpool assets?

Salah stars as Liverpool take advantage of Aké injury

The Reds have now clinched the Premier League title but still have seven league games to play. Klopp has already said that he views the remainder of this campaign as sort of a pre-season for the next one, given the short rest time between the two.

He’s also poured cold water on FPL managers’ hopes that the Reds will play strong line-ups with a view to achieving a record points tally.

In his latest comments, he said:

Getting these types of points tallies sounds pretty nice to me but I’m not sure it’s possible because six or seven of the remaining games we play in a very short period of time. Every three days we will need to make a lot of changes, we need to be lucky and make sure nobody gets injured. We need to be lucky there. If a player gets injured he cannot play the next five as well so that makes it really tricky for all of us.

This makes things a bit tricky for us FPL managers, as well, in terms of owning expensive midfield assets like Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) or Sadio Mane (£12.5m). Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.8m) is a bit less of an issue given his low price. They are all likely to start the Manchester City fixture given the long rest but right after that they play Villa with just 66 hours of recovery, then it’s Brighton with just 74 hours rest and then Burnley with just 65.

If we do hold our Liverpool attackers, we have to be careful with the captaincy. If Salah/Mane get benched in one game, they become captain material for the next game. Such patterns will have to be monitored closely, as well as the substitutions in the City game. Salah will no doubt be hungry for the Golden Boot but it seems unlikely Klopp will risk injury by starting him in all three games.

2. Do we put our faith in Jesus?

Manchester City have the best run of fixtures from Gameweek 33-38 and with Sergio Aguero (£11.7m) ruled out due to injury for that entire period, investing in Gabriel Jesus (£9.6m) is certainly tempting.

However, as the Chelsea fixture showed, the Brazilian’s starting spot is not guaranteed with Bernardo Silva (£7.7m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) alternatives in that role.

Pep Guardiola has already gone on record stating his priority is the cups going forward and he will not want to risk his only recognised striker picking up a fatigue-related injury in such a busy schedule, so his minutes might be managed very carefully. Kevin De Bruyne’s (£10.7m) pitch-time will no doubt be monitored as well.

3. Could differences in rest periods affect performances?

In Gameweek 34, Spurs play Bournemouth with the former having 68 hours of recovery compared to the Cherries’ 121. Everton will have had just 68 hours rest compared to their opponents Southampton’s 93.

In Gameweek 35, Villa have just 64 hours of rest versus 114 for Palace. Everton have 64 hours to Wolves’ 88. Newcastle have 65 hours to Watford’s 89. Sheffield United have a full 24 hours less recovery time than their opponents Chelsea. Arsenal have nearly two days more recovery time than Spurs.

These differences need to be kept in mind as they will likely have an impact on energy levels and performances.

4.  Could switching between heavy hitters be beneficial?  

Like I mentioned earlier, a benching for a heavy-hitting asset like De Bruyne, Salah, Mane, Sterling etc increases their probability of starting the next game. So switching between them and handing them the armband depending on their minutes in the previous game could be rewarding. It is highly unlikely that any of them will start every match given their schedules.

My Team

Having looked at the schedule, getting a third Manchester United player into my squad will be my priority. They have the ideal motivation and near-perfect fixtures/scheduling.

Dominic Calvert Lewin (£6.4m) and Sadio Mane (£12.5m) will likely be making way for Marcus Rashford (£9.1m) and Christan Pulisic (£7.0m) with my two free transfers. Selling De Bruyne instead of the Senegalese is also an option.

Hope you found this information useful. Good luck and stay safe!


An FPL veteran of 10 seasons, Utkarsh Dalmia has been a member of the site right since 2009 and has finished in the top 5k in six of those campaigns, with a best finish of 17th in 2010. A Chelsea fan based in India, he relies heavily on statistics for his FPL decision-making process.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 32+

1,170 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Typical City getting the easy draws.

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Always

    2. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Man Utd vs Man City final would be good.

      Fernandes, Matic, Pogba, Greenwood, Martial, Rashford

      vs

      KDB, Fernandinho, Silva, Mahrez, Aguero, Sterling

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Ole has a pretty impressive record against Pep.

        He'd probably go 352 again. Crowd the half spaces with a back 5, put Sterling in AWB's pocket, and counter with pace behind their high line.

        1. OverTinker
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Sane is not injured now

    3. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Didn’t we beat United 2-0 on January 1st?

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Shh 😀

    4. Coys96
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Real Madrid in L16
      Man Utd in EFL cup....

  2. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    There are minus 12s and minus 12s. Defy anyone to say this doesn’t add up 🙂

    Out
    Ederson
    Lund
    Grealish
    Vardy

    In
    Pope
    TAA
    Mahrez
    Jesus

    Dying to press that button. I even have Tammy left afterwards to turn into Ings!!!

    1. Shane Long
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Jesus and Mahrez major rotation risk

    2. The Polymath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Don't waste your time waiting for replies, DO IT!

      1. Shane Long
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Don’t do it!

        It’s to much!

    3. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Hell no

    4. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Why not wait? Injuries and all?

    5. ritzyd
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Love it!

    6. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Don't like City double up.
      Rashford for Jesus & hold on Ederson ?

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Oh it’s a triple up with KdB

        Figure at least one will play each game. Better returns than my current shower even if 2 rested. Quite fancy 5-3-2 at the back anyway 🙂

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Play 5 at the back, join me!

          1. pingissimus
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Who are your crew at the back?

            Yet to look at permutations but it does feel like a plan - just hard to get to given my top heavy set up.

            Triple Liverpool and Ederson and Doherty I suspect could be done

        2. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Big at the back huh.
          All the best champ

        3. pingissimus
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          To get Mahrez and TAA Ederson would have to go.

          Sensible plan is a boring 1FT to get TAA and captain him and play 4 or 5 at the back. Probably go there

    7. jtreble
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      This doesn’t add up.

      1. jtreble
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        ... unless you're playing anti-FPL.

    8. Pipermaru
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Press the button!

    9. Karan14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Don't mind selling the outgoing players.

      But I'm a bit worried about Pool/City attackers specially with sucha congested schedule and nothing to play for.

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I know

        Decided season was compromised in 30 and decided to have fun by going Liverpool free bar FH. Not fussed by final rank really

        Strategy I think was fine and could still be. I just chose the wrong options. Kun, Vardy and Tammy were all decent punts - slightly random I missed out on Jim and Ings.

        I’ll probably end up with a different combo for a minus 8 with some compromise - TAA and Sterling are within reach I suspect.

        1. Karan14
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          I like really Mahrez & TAA out those four. I will also most likely get Mahrez this week for Richarlison.

          Maybe you could play around with Jesus & Pope. Ederson not a bad option to keep imo.

          1. pingissimus
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Ederson probably stays - losing him would simply be a makeweight to get Mahrez - otherwise just out of reach

            Probably no hurry to make that move in 33. There’s likely a better minus 4 in 34 if I still want him

    10. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Always trust your gut - if you believe it’ll work don’t let anyone talk you out of it

      Because honestly - no-one really knows for sure anyways 🙂

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Agree !

      2. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Ty

        Not being super serious above :-). 2 or 3 of the moves will happen probably but over 2 weeks.

        Team looks cack right now but is in fact probably playable with a 4/5 at the back and a minus 4 perhaps

    11. Clintymints
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      If you wana do, do it

      Folks hate hits around here but i like a few hits for the lols sometimes it needs to be done

  3. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Can’t remember VVD being rotated, is he going to be? TAA VVD till end of season playing 5 at the back, me like it!

  4. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Repost as no replies on previous page

    Planning to save FT? Only other move could be Sarr to Foden but happy to bench him this week.

    Henderson
    TAA AWB C.Taylor Boly
    Salah (c) KDB Bruno
    Auba Jiminez Ings

    McCarthy Sarr Lascelles Hayde

    1. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Or maybe Auba to Rashford?

      1. Ini
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        This would also work.

    2. Ini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Save no doubt

  5. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    That's what you call a kick off from Newcastle. Second touch putting the ball into touch and gaining 20 yards

  6. Kitman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Salah & Martial
    or
    Mane & Fernandes

    or do we just toss a coin?

    1. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      A easy

      1. Shane Long
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        A

        1. Champions League Varane
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          A

    2. JustPark
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I got them four though..

  7. Shane Long
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Anyone due to go down in price?

    That is highly owned

  8. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    I don’t own Salah or a Liverpool mid

    Is it imperative I bring one in?

    1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Me neither mate and wondering the same, would cost me -4 this week to do so as well!!

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        It’s a tricky one for sure!

    2. SuperMane Returns
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Tony, you'd better have a look at DFS to see if they have a sale on..

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Oh no lmao I have to bring one in dont I

        1. SuperMane Returns
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Haha, you would I'm afraid!

  9. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    What’s the template for the final few weeks of the season?

    1. fr3d
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Ings

      1. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        What about the other 14?

    2. SuperMane Returns
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      F0d3n

  10. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Ole's record v Chelsea is pretty good.

    Chelsea 0-2 Manchester United (FA Cup) - Sarri
    Manchester United 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League) - Sarri
    Manchester United 4-0 Chelsea (Premier League) - Lampard
    Chelsea 1-2 Manchester United (League Cup) - Lampard
    Chelsea 0-2 Manchester United (Premier League) - Lampard

    4 wins, 1 draw
    11-2 Aggregate

    1. Nightcrawler
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Reading your comments one would think united are a level above city and pool

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Not against teams who park the bus.

        Against high lines United are lethal on the counter.

        1. Nightcrawler
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Record not good vs arsenal

          1. Piggs Boson
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            Yep, Arsenal are the outlier.

  11. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Rashford or Salah til the end of the season?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Depends on the next game.

    2. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Why not both?

  12. SuperMane Returns
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Carroll going all Chopper with that beard.

    1. SuperMane Returns
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Smashing into Laporte like Chopper would too, if he played football.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Do you think he prefers Motorhead or Elbow?

    3. FPL price manipulators are …
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      The battering ram is the only hope they have

    4. Make Arrows Green Again
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      And that foul

    5. Piggs Boson
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      RIP Lemmy

  13. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    When is the FA Cup Final?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Soon after the season ends.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Is it like 3-4 days after season ends or the following weekend?
        If it's the former could mean lots of rotation for the 4 Semi Finalists in GW37/38.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Following Saturday after the Sunday.

  14. SuperMane Returns
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    'He used the wrong paint brush then' - weird expression.

  15. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Sarr to Foden or save FT?
    Henderson
    TAA AWB C.Taylor Boly
    Salah (c) KDB Bruno
    Auba Jiminez Ings

    McCarthy Sarr Lascelles Hayden

  16. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Mahrez rested for midweek

  17. SuperMane Returns
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Silva to Bilva, Moden to Foden

  18. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Splendid Mahrez having a break!!

  19. Patron
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts on Pulisic starting?
    I guess pretty slim now...Frank probably gonna bring him in if needed..
    If he’s not starting I have Nketiah on the bench, but cameo scares me.

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Same here. Hopefully he doesn't get a cameo

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I’d say Nketiah will start and Pulisic won’t play

      1. Patron
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Ye hopeful of that atleast.

    3. Gerd Mueller’s thighs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I gave him the armband for this week.....he will probably get a cameo.

      1. Patron
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Haha my vice!

  20. Collie01
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Foden in for Mahrez
    Bilva for Dilva

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Mahrez starts every game

  21. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Did Mount and Baldock get injured today?

  22. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    90 mins for kidb plz

    120 would be a welcome miracle

    1. SuperMane Returns
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      This.

    2. Niho992
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Even if he plays 120 he will start vs Liverpool

  23. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Lol

  24. SuperMane Returns
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Saint Max Sitter

    1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Dwight Gayle mate

      1. SuperMane Returns
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I was out the kitchen, misheard the commentator.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Gayle

  25. Ask Yourself
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Dwight fayle

    1. FPL price manipulators are …
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I thought it was Joelinton

  26. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Otamendi deserves to be at Arsenal alongside David Luiz

  27. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Out: Norwood and Auba
    In: Mahrez and Ings

    Do it for a hit this week or for free next week?

    1. Niho992
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Kneejerk. Ings play vs City you know

      1. Bury94
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Ah yeah course he does, I'll wait!

  28. Collie01
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Gayle misses a sitter after Otamendi shocker

  29. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    I wonder if I should not just park this team and leave it as is till the end? Not sure what I can do to improve unless I take out Son for Mahrez. May as well keep Son as he is nailed.

    Patricio
    TAA Alonso Doherty Aurier
    Salah(C) Mane(vc) Son Martial Pulisic
    Rashford

    Salah and Mane will not both be benched in the same game. Both are chasing the golden. Perma C and VC.

    Happy with the rest of the players as well. Bench of Nketiah, Connolly and Robinson if any of my 11 do not play.

    Think I am done with changing up the team now.

    1. HTL
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      IMO, you're going to get burned by a load of mid priced options, and get annoyed when your (C) comes on for 20 minutes at the end. Spread the funds better

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Who should I bring in?

        I do not see better options compared to what I already have. City players in the 20 minute bracket as well so much of a muchness and I am staying clear from Arsenal.

    2. Rover
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      The question is whether you expect them to play 90-0 or 60-30. If it's the first then your strategy could be golden. The second is a risk you need to be willing to take.

  30. Nightcrawler
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    City defence shaky as always when put under pressure

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Otamendi and Mendy have mistakes in them for sure