FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 31: GOALSCORER ODDS
Let’s begin with a quick look at the anytime goal scorer probabilities, where Erling Haaland (£12.2m) is unsurprisingly top with a 58.5% chance. He made it through the Champions League tie against Bayern Munich unscathed but the question is whether his minutes are managed against Leicester City ahead of the second leg. Also, even if they are managed, is it enough to change captaincy plans?
What we do know is that Harry Kane (£11.7m) is very likely to play the full match at home to Bournemouth, where he’s given a 48.5% chance of scoring. If you’re chasing rank or a mini-league leader, he’s a viable armband alternative. The fear factor is strong but Haaland has put up plenty of low returns over the season, while Kane has the ability to deliver in a fixture like this.
Liverpool are away to Leeds United, so Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) could be a good captain and is the most differential of the three candidates with around 20% top 100k ownership. He racked up a season-best expected goals (xG) tally of 2.15 last Gameweek, which only Ivan Toney (£7.8m) and his two penalties bettered.
Interestingly, Riyad Mahrez (£7.3m) was benched in the Champions League while Jack Grealish (£7.0m) played the full match, the latter looking exhausted at full-time. The Manchester City midfielders are a complete toss-up, taking it in turns to be flavour of the month – it was Phil Foden (£8.0m) for a while, then Kevin De Bruyne (£12.1m), Mahrez and now Grealish.
The Algerian will be fully rested to face his former team, so it’d come as no surprise if he ends up being the better short-term pick despite Grealish’s current popularity.
Across Manchester, the latest on Marcus Rashford (£7.2m) is that:
“Subsequent assessment of the injury suggested that Marcus will be unavailable for a few games, but is expected to be back for the season run-in.” – Manchester United club statement
So we won’t be seeing him in Gameweek 31 but hopefully, after the blank, he could be back for Gameweek 33, just before their double. Transfers this week need to be carefully crafted depending on chip strategy. If you’re not using a Free Hit in Gameweek 32 then fielding a full 11 should take priority.
The likes of Kane, Salah and Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) appear among the top scoring odds and also avoid a Blank Gameweek 32.
GAMEWEEK 31: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Onto the clean sheet odds and Man City are top with a 51.5% chance of successfully keeping out 19th-placed Leicester. It’s hard to predict what we’ll see from the game, as the champions are massive favourites but perhaps Pep Guardiola rotates a few players with the second leg of the Bayern game in mind, whilst the Foxes have brought in manager Dean Smith to give them a boost for the final eight games.
Arsenal are away to West Ham United and are rated at 43% for the clean sheet. Oleksandr Zinchenko (£5.2m) and Ben White (£4.9m) were not spotted in Tuesday’s training as they are doing recovery work after the Liverpool game, though the pair should be fine for this trip. Teammate William Saliba (£5.1m) is unlikely to be risked but hasn’t yet been ruled out.
The league leaders have an even better Gameweek 32 fixture – at home to Southampton – after which we’ll need to make a call on their assets for the remainder of the season, given they don’t have any Double Gameweeks to come.
This is the updated graphic from Mikkel Tokvam that depicts the number of fixtures per team per Gameweek until the season’s end:
Brighton will have three Double Gameweeks, or maybe even one double and one triple. Both Manchester sides have two doubles, plus five teams will participate in one. It’s a luxury transfer for most teams but, if you’re in a position to make a goalkeeping transfer, Ederson (£5.4m) could be the outstanding option for the run-in.
Liverpool are 34% for a clean sheet against Leeds, before they host Nottingham Forest in Blank Gameweek 32. They feel like fixtures where Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) and Andrew Robertson (£6.8m) can deliver returns at both ends of the pitch. Over the season, Alexander-Arnold is only beaten by Kieran Trippier (£6.2m) for expected goal involvement (xGI) with 7.45, before third-placed Robertson’s 6.66.
There’s not much in it but, if you own both David Raya (£4.9m) and Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.7m), the odds favour Brentford goalkeeper Raya. Likewise, Newcastle United defenders are ahead of their Brighton and Hove Albion counterparts.
Rock bottom this week are Leicester (6%), followed by Bournemouth (13.5%) away to Spurs
GAMEWEEK 31: MOST TRANSFERS IN
It’s Grealish way ahead with 285,000 transfers so far. He makes a lot of sense to those selling either the injured Rashford or out-of-form James Maddison (£8.2m), given he has bagged a goal and assist in both of his last two outings.
Gabriel Martinelli (£6.7m) is second with 175,000 purchases, having matched Grealish’s Gameweek 30 output. The question is, should we really sell Rashford and who for? Man United’s update didn’t give a specific timeline.
If you can afford to start someone else in his place this week – especially if you’re Free Hitting in Gameweek 32 – Grealish, Mahrez, Martinelli and Bukayo Saka (£8.6m) are the leading options.
Over 50,000 transfers have been used on De Bruyne, underlining the importance of holding your transfers when there’s midweek football, as there’s a chance he misses out at the weekend.
GAMEWEEK 31: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
Rashford’s sales are going to escalate further given the injury update from Erik ten Hag. They’re starting to look like victims of a packed schedule involving so many competitions, as Luke Shaw (£5.1m) is second with 286,000 transfers out.
Ten Hag said the left-back is out of the Sevilla game but he “expects Shaw back on shorter notice” than the longer-term Alejandro Garnacho (£4.2m).
Maddison has been a bitter disappointment for owners, with just one assist from a six-game run that carried a lot of promise, although seeing 49,000 Saka sales is a shock considering Arsenal’s next two matches.
There’s still no news in regards to Toney’s potential ban and his fixtures actually aren’t bad, facing Wolverhampton Wanderers, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest. In my eyes, it’s absolutely fine to hold him until we have news.
With a rocky few Gameweeks coming up, rolling a free transfer could prove invaluable if you can get to that point.
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