Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his usual weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 3. The topics include Dean Henderson (£4.5m), Cole Palmer (£10.5m) and cheap midfielders.
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Q: Is it worth correcting the Dean Henderson pick for the long term as it looks like it has been a mistake?
(via @FPLAlexndrArnld)
A: Dean Henderson has been the most popular £4.5m goalkeeper pick amongst the FPL community on the back of Crystal Palace’s strong finish to the season. The Eagles have conceded two goals in each of their opening games and now travel to Chelsea, who just scored six in Gameweek 2. Even after the fixture against Chelsea is out of the way, Palace’s home fixture run reads: Leicester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, from which you would fancy one clean sheet.
The problem is a lack of good alternatives in the same price bracket. The only ‘keepers I can recommend with confidence right now are David Raya (£5.5m) or Emiliano Martinez (£5.0m), given Aston Villa’s fixture run. However, if you skip ahead to Gameweek 6, Brentford’s schedule is excellent with four home games against West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Ipswich Town and Bournemouth. That’s when I like making the switch to Mark Flekken (£4.5m), as you also get to see Palace for their two home games in Gameweek 4 and 5 against Leicester and Manchester United. So unless you’re going for the aforementioned pricier options, I think stick with Henderson for now.
Q: Rank the cheap midfielders for the next five Gameweeks: Emile Smith Rowe, Morgan Rogers, Antoine Semenyo, Yankuba Minteh, Callum Hudson-Odoi.
Q. Who to replace Christopher Nkunku with?
(via @FPL_Itachi and DGW blindness is for Kinnear)
A: Christopher Nkunku (£6.4m) replacements are obviously a big talking point this week. Most managers have already sold the Frenchman with his price drop earlier in the week but let’s discuss the replacements for those who have not.
Given that Villa sit top of the fixture ticker for the next six Gameweeks, I think Morgan Rogers (£5.1m) would be my top replacement option. He has looked great in the opening two fixtures and I think his spot is secure in the Villa team – for now. The caveat here is that the UEFA Champions League will be a factor for the West Midlands side this season, so there might be some rotation. Rogers is a young player, however, so I think he can cope with three games a week.
The second one would have to be Emile Smith Rowe (£5.6m), who I think is a quality player. The underlying data isn’t there to really support this but I like the signings Fulham have made this window, with Sander Berge (£5.0m) and Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) likely to help them at both ends of the pitch. The next four fixtures against Ipswich Town, West Ham United, Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest look good for returns.
The third is a bit more difficult. Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m) will have a lot of competition for his position and while the Gameweek 4 and 5 fixtures against Ipswich and Forest look great, they are followed by Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle. Forest’s good run also ends soon and I really don’t trust their attack. Bournemouth’s fixtures are still difficult and I want to see the impact of Evanilson (£6.0m) on Antoine Semenyo’s (£5.5m) output.
I think for the third one, I’d go with Noni Madueke (£6.5m). I don’t see Cole Palmer (£10.5m) being used on the right often going forward and there are limited options for Chelsea on that side. Madueke is more of an Enzo Maresca winger and I think the fixtures for Chelsea are decent enough to warrant a punt.
Q: Is a triple-up of Antonee Robinson, Emile Smith Rowe and Rodrigo Muniz too much Fulham on a Wildcard?
(via ALBRIGHTONDKNIGHT)
A: There are two schools of thought to this. Often on the FPL Wire, we say that we don’t believe in baskets. If you don’t put enough eggs in a good basket, you are ‘basket wasting’. By this we mean if a good team has good fixtures and is playing well, not investing further in them just because you want to spread your risk is not a sound strategy.
However, I really don’t know how good the Fulham basket is yet. I couldn’t really get a read on them against Manchester United; their underlying numbers were poor in general but they could have scored on another day. Leicester was not a stern test, really, with the Foxes bottom of most defensive metrics. So it’s really a fixture play and a guess that Fulham are a good team, which is fine. At this stage, we are playing guesswork with most teams. I think Antonee Robinson is a great £4.6m pick, so I like him. However, I would pick just one of Smith Rowe and Rodrigo Muniz (£6.1m) if I was on a Wildcard right now. This is simply because I am yet to be convinced that Fulham are a fully functioning, good team that is playing well.
Q: Is Cole Palmer really worth an early Wildcard? I’m currently not on a Wildcard.
(via KIWIVILLAIN)
A: Chelsea were very good against Wolverhampton Wanderers but the fact that they scored six goals has more to do with Wolves’ defensive display than Chelsea’s attacking prowess, in my opinion. Yes, Palmer looks like he will be a fantastic FPL option. But will he be better than Mohamed Salah (£12.6m), Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) or even Erling Haaland (£15.1m) as a premium pick? I’m not sure. That being said, if I was Wildcarding today I would include Palmer in my squad, as he is very low owned amongst the active engaged managers, provides a great captaincy option this week, is secure for minutes and has a great run of fixtures. But would I Wildcard just to get Palmer in? I’m not so sure. I need to see more from Palmer, and the other alternative premium options, to be fully convinced of that.
Q: Would you go for balance with just Mohamed Salah on a Wildcard or pick both Erling Haaland and Salah?
(@vinzo94)
A: This is the season of ‘you can’t own everyone’ and let’s face it, fixtures matter. Nearly half a million managers will not Triple Captain Haaland away to West Ham as they did at home to Ipswich. So shuffling between big hitters for their good run of fixtures is something we will likely have to do this season. Whether it pays off remains to be seen. You could easily sell Saka away to Spurs for Salah at home to Forest, only for the former to brace and the latter to blank. It’s going to be a high-variance season.
It does feel weird recommending selling a player after a hat-trick but I think if Wildcarding today, Haaland would not make my squad. I would probably have Salah and Palmer as my premium options and look to spread the funds with other picks. Manchester City are ranked 15th on the fixture ticker and while one can always make the argument that City are fixture-proof, they are not as likely to haul in these games. After Gameweek 6, that’s when you need to make plans to get Haaland back. We just have to play the probability game this season.
Q: Cole Palmer or Bukayo Saka?
(via @Silvaliningg)
A: We have only really seen one game worth of Palmer playing in the no. 10 position. We can’t really garner much from Chelsea’s Gameweek 1 fixture against Manchester City. Arsenal are a much more functional outfit than Chelsea and are likely to be City’s main opposition in the title race. So, Saka is a top premium asset.
However, based on the upcoming fixtures, if I was to rank the midfield premiums it would be: Salah, Palmer, Saka and Phil Foden (£9.4m). This is again primarily due to Chelsea’s fixture run and the position I saw Palmer play against Wolves. Perhaps there is some bias on my end as a Blues fan. It’s a close one.
We discuss these dilemmas and a lot more on the Gameweek 3 episode of the FPL Wire.
You can check it out here.
