Continuing with the Gameweek 11 inquest, we look back on Manchester City’s 2-1 defeat at Brighton and Hove Albion.
- READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 11: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus points + stats
- READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 11: Sunday’s goals, assists, bonus points + stats
- READ MORE: FPL notes: Alexander-Arnold injury + Salah’s upcoming rest
- READ MORE: FPL notes: Keane benched, £4.0m Fabianski delivers + Ait-Nouri ‘OOP’
- READ MORE: FPL notes: Bruno haul, Vardy + Solanke injury latest, erratic Spurs
VOTE FOR PEDRO
Joao Pedro (£5.4m) has timed his comeback from injury beautifully. A favourable fixture swing awaits Brighton, who avoid any of the ‘big six’ from now until the New Year.
He’s returned to fitness late enough to avoid a Brazil call-up, too – at least, for now.
Remember, he was a late replacement for Selecao in the September international break. That’s when his injury problems started.
A two-week breather would be ideal for Pedro ahead of a busy festive period. There’ll be reservations about rotation with the depth of Fabian Hurzeler’s squad, of course. Two matches, in particular, stand out in Gameweeks 15 and 19, when the Seagulls have less than 72 hours of recovery time.
But even Hurzeler himself admits that Pedro is the “one player” at his disposal who can make a difference.
“He makes a difference. I think every Premier League club has this one player who makes the special things, and I think he’s exactly that player for us.
“He’s not only a great player, he’s also a great leader. I think we underestimated a little bit regarding [his] leader skills. He’s a great leader, he’s very demanding. He demands a lot from his teammates, he always sets the standards really high, and I think he’s a big role model for all the young players.” – Fabian Hurzeler on Joao Pedro
And make a difference he certainly did on Saturday, emerging as a 65th-minute substitute. Pouncing on a loose ball to draw the game level, he then supplied a through-ball for Matt O’Riley (£5.5m) to bag the winner.
THE LIFE O’RILEY
O’Riley is not a name that some FPL managers will be familiar with.
But there is hope and expectation that he can make the more advanced of Albion’s central midfield roles his own.
Last season, he delivered 18 goals, 13 assists, 109 shots and 93 key passes for Celtic. He was on set plays for Brendan Rodgers’ side, too.
All figures to be taken with a pinch of salt, as they were registered in the Scottish top flight, but Brighton are no mugs in the transfer market.
That ability to ghost into the box and find the net is something we regularly saw for the Bhoys. It also seems perfect for Hurzeler’s system.
“[Hurzeler] told me to play in the right pocket.
“In the first half we played with a double six, kind of, and one no.10, in a box. In the second half we played with two eights dropping out to the spaces on the side and I think I just gave us a little more joy.
“I was just popping up in a few areas and I think we got quite a lot of success from it.” – Matt O’Riley
It’s too early to be making game-time guarantees, particularly after a long lay-off. There’s also Yasin Ayari (£5.0m), Jack Hinshelwood (£5.0m), Carlos Baleba (£5.0m) and, probably further down the pecking order now, Mats Wieffer (£4.8m) competing for a couple of central midfield slots.
Probably the ‘best’ central four on paper would be Baleba, O’Riley, Pedro and Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) but a congested schedule will no doubt have its say.
Hinshelwood, incidentally, will require assessment after limping off. Ferdi Kadioglu (£4.5m) meanwhile missed the win over City with a minor issue.
PEP POOPED
The ‘xG race’ graphic above tells a story. Manchester City, as they had been against Sporting in midweek, were in control in the first half.
And just like did in Portugal, they took the lead. Once again, further chances were spurned to increase that advantage. City were in fact 9-0 up on shots after 34 minutes.
But then, the wilt. Was this injuries and accumulated fatigue catching up with them? Brighton had a full week to prepare for this match, so it’s certainly a convenient excuse.
A whopping eight big chances were conceded by City in this match. That’s the most any team has allowed in a fixture since Gameweek 7. Pep Guardiola’s side were worryingly picked apart time and time again, through-balls all too easily bypassing midfield and defence. A beleaguered Tottenham Hotspur will take some comfort from City’s struggles against high-intensity sides over the last fortnight. The two clubs meet in Gameweek 12.
This might have represented a nadir, in fairness. All four of City’s senior centre-halves were either out or unable to feature from the bench. Kevin De Bruyne (£9.4m) was a half-fit substitute. Jeremy Doku (£6.3m) was added to the injury list before kick-off.
A few more bodies back after the international break, and maybe a breather for a few more players, could help kickstart the campaign. Late autumn/winter is usually the time City embark on a season-defining run.
“I think everyone needs it, yeah. I think particularly in our heads it will be good for all of us. For the players, for ourselves and hopefully Ruben and John Stones can come back and join us and hopefully the other players, too.” – Pep Guardiola on the international break
BONUS ERUPTUS
A late yellow card for Haaland turns 8 points into 5… pic.twitter.com/7zyOLHRqfq
— Fantasy Football Scout (@FFScout) November 9, 2024
For all the reservations about City at present (no Rodri (£6.3m), injuries etc), Erling Haaland (£15.2m) owners have been very unlucky in the last six Gameweeks.
FPL’s biggest xG overachiever in Gameweeks 1-5 has been the biggest underachiever in the following half-dozen Gameweeks.
Above: FPL assets sorted by best xG delta in Gameweeks 1-5 (left) and worst xG delta in Gameweeks 6-11 (right)
Here he hit the post and headed over from six yards with two of his seven shots. On another day, one of those two goes in and we’re looking at a double-digit haul. There have been several of those ‘nearly’ moments of late.
The cherry on the excrement this week was Haaland getting booked with seconds of the game to go. That not only saw him deducted a point but it also cost him two bonus.
It’s when, not if, he will bounce back to hauling form. Spurs at home is a great chance to do just that. But an ownership reduction and further price drops are inevitable over the break. With the division’s two best defences to come in Gameweeks 13 and 14, with Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) in hot form and with myriad budget forwards doing the business, you can understand the ongoing exodus.
Elsewhere, Joško Gvardiol (£6.3m) continues to pose such a threat despite his team’s malaise – even at centre-half, where he was on Saturday. Thrown forward late in the game with City chasing a leveller, he was inches away from a fourth goal in six Gameweeks.
Rico Lewis (£4.9m) kept his place too but perhaps only out of necessity, with others injured. Assuming bodies at the back will return in Gameweek 12, the ‘xMins’ looks more dubious.
