Spot the Differential
28 November 2025 194 comments
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Brentford, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest assets are on our differentials radar in Gameweek 13 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

All three of the players below have an ownership of 5% or lower.


DANGO OUATTARA

FPL Gameweek 2: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus + ‘DefCon’ points

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW13-16 fixtures (leaves for AFCON thereafter): BUR | ars | tot | LEE

Brentford are receiving significant backing for Gameweek 13, which is as much to do with their own home form (four wins from six, 12 goals scored) as it is Burnley’s wretched away record (five losses from six, a league-high 18 goals conceded).

Nine-goal frontman Igor Thiago (£6.5m) picks himself. The backline is also receiving plenty of attention, with Kevin Schade (£7.0m) another popular selection.

But what about Dango Ouattara (£6.0m)? 

For a million less outlay, he boasts a slightly better rate of expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes than Schade:

He also blows his teammate out of the water for big chances per 90 minutes (0.87 vs 0.36):

In fact, despite playing just 724 minutes of Premier League action, Ouattara has actually been afforded more Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (seven) than all but four FPL midfielders:

Level with Schade for FPL returns (five each), Ouattara has delivered a goal and three assists in the last four Gameweeks.

Ouattara’s penalty-winning ability is something to note, too. He has won three Premier League spot-kicks this season; no other player has done so on more than one occasion! Also notable is the fact that Burnley have conceded three penalties in 2025/26, the joint-most of any club in the division…

As for those lower minutes, that’s a legacy from when Keith Andrews switched to a 3-5-2 in the ‘tougher’ fixtures. Dango was often the fall guy when that happened – but Andrews definitely won’t do that in Gameweek 13.

It’s possible that there’s a formation switch for Arsenal away in Gameweek 14 (not a worry for those getting Ouattara on a Gameweek 13 Free Hit!) but would you want to start him then anyway? The 23-year-old’s cheaper price tag makes him easier to bench than Schade, too.

The ex-Bournemouth winger is, of course, bound for the Africa Cup of Nations in mid-December. But as a one-week punt, or to play in three of the next four Gameweeks, there are worse picks out there.


MATHEUS NUNES

  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: LEE | ful | SUN | cry | WHU

Nico O’Reilly (£5.1m) is all the rage at the moment. For good reason, too, given the Manchester City left-back’s recent returns. But what about the man on the opposite flank?

Matheus Nunes (£5.3m) is less of a shotaholic than O’Reilly but the pair have still managed the same number of ‘big chances’ (one).

And while O’Reilly’s overall chance creation numbers are superior, both men have two FPL assists to their name.

They each earned defensive contribution (DefCon) points against Liverpool the Gameweek before last and both have two double-digit FPL points hauls this season.

All in all, then, there may not be as much separating the two City full-backs as it first appears. Indeed, O’Reilly is only currently ahead by six FPL points.

Nunes’ selection here is more team-led. His next two opponents, Leeds and Fulham, have each conceded a disproportionate number of crosses down their left flanks (Nunes’s side) in recent weeks:

Focusing only on Leeds, for those Free Hitting, this graph of where the Whites’ opponents have assisted from in 2025/26 (in green) really pinpoints Nunes’ flank as the source of joy:

There is risk to both full-backs, of course. Rico Lewis (£4.8m) and Abdukodir Khusanov (£5.4m) could come in for a game on the right, with Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7m) or Josko Gvardiol (£5.8m) deputising on the left. That, as you well know, is the chance we take when punting on any City player bar Erling Haaland (£14.9m).


NIKOLA MILENKOVIC

  • FPL ownership: 3.7%
  • Price: £5.2m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: BHA | wol | eve | TOT | ful

Thursday’s 3-0 Europa League win against Malmo saw Nikola Milenkovic (£5.2m) return to goalscoring form.

It was Milenkovic’s first goal of the current campaign but he had earlier come close to breaking his duck when his first-half header forced a save. The Serb was involved in Forest’s opener, too, with his deflected cross falling perfectly for Yates.

We know from last season that the 28-year-old has goalscoring pedigree. He netted five times, while he finished joint-top for headed attempts (21) among defenders. So far this term, he’s headed towards goal seven times already.

Interestingly, Forest have had more attempts from set pieces (20) than anyone except Arsenal in their four Gameweeks with Dyche at the helm:

Milenkovic has also encouragingly claimed DefCon points in back-to-back matches.

Forest won this weekend’s corresponding fixture 7-0 last season and while that may not happen again at the City Ground on Sunday, it begins a decent run of games for the Tricky Trees.

Impressively, Forest have conceded fewer Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (two) than any other Premier League club since Dyche arrived. They have also kept four clean sheets and conceded just five goals across seven matches in all competitions.


UCL Fantasy Matchday 5: Best Attacking Return Player Percentages 2

FPL Scoop London-based freelance journalist and editor, frequently with The i Paper, The Standard, Fantasy Football Scout, and BBC Sport. Follow them on Twitter

194 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Mesh
    • 11 Years
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Which 1 onn FH?

    A. MGW
    B. Kolo Muani

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      A

    2. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      A

    3. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 10 hours ago

      Isn’t MGW a doubt?

  2. tbos83
    • 5 Years
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Start
    A) James
    B) Caicedo

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      B

    2. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      B

  3. RICICLE
    • 3 Years
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Hey guys! Think I’m settled how on the FH, probably template to buggery but how’s this?

    Martinez
    O’Reilly - Cash - Van den Berg
    Schade - Salah - Rogers - Gakpo - Foden
    Haaland (c) - Thiago (vc)
    ___________________________________
    Dubravka: Reinildo: Esteve: Marc Guiu

    1.5m ITB

    Not changed this for a few days so feel quite settled.

    Opinions welcome cheers gents!

    1. Eze Come, Eze Go
      • 1 Year
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Like it

      1. RICICLE
        • 3 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Cheers bud! Either epically flops or turns up trumps, but ready to rock & roll 😉

    2. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      Seems standard like you said

      Not that that’s a bad thing.

      1. RICICLE
        • 3 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Indeed, a lot of low owned players though, well….around 6 or 7 I’d say, hopefully it works 🙂

        Cheers bud, best of luck for this GW.

  4. Eze Come, Eze Go
    • 1 Year
    6 days, 12 hours ago

    Hi all. Not sure who to transfer / bench. Fancy upgrading Minteh to Rogers or bringing in Thiago. Any other comments welcome.

    Dubravka
    VDV - Timber - Munoz
    Saka - Semenyo - Minteh - Mbeumo
    Mateta - Haaland (c) - Woltemade

    Pope - Wieffer - Senesi - Gudmundsson

    1. SligoRovers1928
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Might as well start pope, he’ll hardly get subbed on for ramsdale

    2. Skout
      • 6 Years
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      How’s this for FH:

      Martinez
      O’Reilly Cash Munoz
      Salah Gakpo Foden Schade Rogers
      Haaland Thiago

      Dubravka Guiu Hartman Reinildo 0.1itb

      1. Casual Player
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Good and classic template. Like the FH 2 posts up is 1 player different

    3. Norco
      • 11 Years
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      How's the bench boost look?

      Dubravka, Enzo, KDH, Reinildo

    4. Pep Roulette
      • 8 Years
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      If I've taken a hit and want to FH, will my hit be cancelled?

      1. RICICLE
        • 3 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Yup 🙂

      2. Freshy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        true

    5. AF90
      • 13 Years
      6 days, 12 hours ago

      Surprised by the lack of love for Bowen in FH teams....prefer him over Gakpo & Schade who I'm seeing in most teams for starters

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Wilson preferred West Ham forward this week

      2. Casual Player
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        I think I would prefer Wilson for 1 week

      3. Amartey Partey
        • 6 Years
        6 days, 10 hours ago

        Yeah Bowen is a good option and gets more minutes than Wilson. He’s first on my bench

    6. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 11 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      I have milenkovic in my team just cost I can't afford Munoz, but reading this article maybe I should go dango ahead of schade...and pick Munoz instead of Milen...

      A milenkovic and schade
      B Munoz and dango

      Cheers

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        B

      2. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 9 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Dango is a good pick. But why Munoz over Milenkovic?

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 11 Years
          6 days, 11 hours ago

          Seems a better pick and man aren't exactly on fire. Brighton could easily score at NF

          1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
            • 9 Years
            6 days, 11 hours ago

            Absolutely agree. Munoz and Dango out of those options.

      3. Casual Player
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        I like B

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 11 Years
          6 days, 11 hours ago

          Cheers

    7. Manani
      • 14 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      would you FH?

      current team:
      Pope
      Timber VVD ORilley
      Saka Sarr Semenyo Kudus
      Mateta Thiago Haaland

      1. Richm
        • 3 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Similar team here. If I didn’t have TC I would FH

      2. Joelinton Travel Tavern
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        It's not great but its not awful either, could go ok particularly if Ars do well against Che as everyone has FH them out this week

    8. Uns95
      • 7 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      No love for Watkins?

      Know he's out of form but Wolves are absolutely terrible, could easily see him bagging a couple goals

      1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 9 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        It's all about probabilities for me. And to be honest, no Villa attacker stands out.

      2. Hint
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        On a free hit there's worse shouts but if I was punting I'd go for Malen

    9. hariv
      • 2 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      Start Pope (eve) or Petrovic (sun)?

      1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 9 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        A post on the precious article said Pope might not play.

        1. hariv
          • 2 Years
          6 days, 11 hours ago

          Thanks mate!!!

    10. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 9 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      Who should be my third defender?

      Martinez
      Munoz Cash X
      Salah Schade Dango Foden Doku
      Haaland Thiago

      Dubravks Mukiele Reinildo Guiu

      1. Richm
        • 3 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Rogers in mid and then brentford or city defender

        1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
          • 9 Years
          6 days, 11 hours ago

          Rogers' numbers are extremely poor. I dont trust Villa attack. Reverse for Brentford. City triple up has more upside this week than double attack and on defender. Even if I have to pick one mid which one - Doku or Foden?

          1. Richm
            • 3 Years
            6 days, 11 hours ago

            Early team news might tell you. Foden more nailed people are saying but who knows with pep and a midweek game

      2. Casual Player
        • 5 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        How much bank? Assuming you can’t get Arsenal I think Porro (some risk he doesn’t start) or Livramento. Given setup doesn’t allow for a Brentford or Man City defender

        1. Casual Player
          • 5 Years
          6 days, 11 hours ago

          I actually quite like the setup by the way.

        2. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
          • 9 Years
          6 days, 11 hours ago

          I can afford Califiori

          1. Casual Player
            • 5 Years
            6 days, 11 hours ago

            I think do that

            Arsenal are pretty much fixture proof as a DEF and he’s got some attacking upside. I get removing their attackers this week on FH but keeping a DEF seems fine to me.

            Good luck - I think it’s a really nice upside team. Template fixtures, but a bit differential on players

            1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
              • 9 Years
              6 days, 11 hours ago

              Thanks. Thats the idea. Attack the fixtures, but pick some logical differentials.

    11. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 5 Years
      6 days, 11 hours ago

      Is it worth FH to get Scout's GW13 picks this week over this ragtag selection?

      Pope
      Calafiori Senesi Mukiele Virgil
      Rice Mbeumo B.Fernandes
      Haaland© Woltemade Mateta
      -Dubravka Semenyo* Caicedo Rodon
      1FT £0.7M

      1. Richm
        • 3 Years
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Play sem and get Thiago.
        Or play fh if no tc

        1. Sheffield Wednesday
          • 5 Years
          6 days, 11 hours ago

          Cheers

    12. SligoRovers1928
        6 days, 11 hours ago

        Thoughts on the free hit team:
        Kelleher
        Cash Munoz o reilly
        Saka salah Rogers shade doku
        Thiago Haaland
        Bench:dubravka, mukiele, esteve, guiu
        Alternatives are a 3-4-3 with mateta instead of Saka or Martinez and van den berg

        1. SligoRovers1928
            6 days, 11 hours ago

            Martinez and van den berg would require mukiele down to tuanzebe

          • Casual Player
            • 5 Years
            6 days, 11 hours ago

            Standard team and standard thoughts that it’s good

            1. SligoRovers1928
                6 days, 11 hours ago

                No need to try and force Martinez in over kelleher?

          • GROBARI
            • 5 Years
            6 days, 11 hours ago

            If I don't FH, what's the best GW to FH (where most good/solid teams have these weak offensive/defensive opponents at home). I hope this question makes sense...

            1. Casual Player
              • 5 Years
              6 days, 11 hours ago

              It does but I find it impossible to answer without deep diving into your team

              And I’m not sure I’m even invested in my own team enough to do that for myself

            2. SligoRovers1928
                6 days, 11 hours ago

                Probably game week 15/16

              • Caligula's third favou…
                • 3 Years
                6 days, 11 hours ago

                Considering 15 or maybe (risky) 19.

            3. CoracAld2831
              • 4 Years
              6 days, 11 hours ago

              Thiago is currently the most transferred in player this week by a large margin.

              Thiago - 635410
              Eze - 491947
              Munoz - 369788
              Rogers - 361685
              Timber - 283530

              1. Casual Player
                • 5 Years
                6 days, 11 hours ago

                Eze and Rogers - the chase!

              2. SligoRovers1928
                  6 days, 11 hours ago

                  Don’t worry, he won’t blank, he’s not quite bald

              3. CYN
                • 7 Years
                6 days, 11 hours ago

                Appreciate any input here!

                Team is:

                Raya Dubravka
                Calafiori VVD Munoz Senesi Mukiele
                Semenyo Enzo Bruno Ndiaye Stach
                Haaland Mateta Thiago

                A. Enzo and Semenyo -> Foden and Anderson
                B. Enzo and Semenyo -> Foden and Dango
                C. FH

                1. SligoRovers1928
                    6 days, 11 hours ago

                    Probably fh, I wouldn’t be too keen to sell semenyo personally

                2. Natural Selection
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 14 Years
                  6 days, 11 hours ago

                  Anyone know if the members cup fixtures been announced yet? I haven't seen an article, not sure if I missed it...

                3. Wolfman180
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  6 days, 11 hours ago

                  As a fairly pessimistic Lpool fan atm Im tempted with a move for Wilson, either in for Mateta or Woltemade as I just know theyre gonna bloody win arent they lol. Do I go for it?
                  I should probably just roll though. Im so torn haha!

                  1. SligoRovers1928
                      6 days, 11 hours ago

                      Bring him in and captain him, actually feck it, triple captain him
                      You’ll remember it one way or another…

                      1. Wolfman180
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 11 Years
                        6 days, 11 hours ago

                        Haha love it! So true an all.
                        And now itll be sods law that ill bottle it, trip captain Haaland who blanks along with say Woltemade, then Wilson goes on a mad one and im left a sad Lpool fan with no points 😛

                        1. SligoRovers1928
                            6 days, 11 hours ago

                            Club over fpl any day, I’m a united fan so hoping for that Wilson hat trick coming your way

                          • SligoRovers1928
                              6 days, 11 hours ago

                              If Haaland blanks and Wilson hauls I’ll get a bloody half and half City-West ham jersey to commemorate this extraordinary event

                              1. Wolfman180
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                • 11 Years
                                6 days, 10 hours ago

                                Imagine the scenes. See now im genuinely conflicted as if that happens ill be aaaaabsolutely kicking myself that I never went for it. But who the hell does such a move!? No, listen to the brain, do not triple captain Wilson, do not triple captain Wilson

                      2. Richm
                        • 3 Years
                        6 days, 11 hours ago

                        Which one FH or TC? 1ft
                        Pope
                        senesi mukiele timber guehi Gabriel
                        Sarr Enzo Semenyo saka minteh
                        Haaland Mateta Thiago

                        1. SligoRovers1928
                            6 days, 11 hours ago

                            You could just roll but it’s probably the best free hit seem for a lot of teams

                            1. Richm
                              • 3 Years
                              6 days, 11 hours ago

                              You mean free hit?

                              1. SligoRovers1928
                                  6 days, 11 hours ago

                                  Yeah, I meant best free hit week, really need to turn off autocorrect

                                  1. Richm
                                    • 3 Years
                                    6 days, 11 hours ago

                                    Thanks , torn between it and tc haaland

                                    1. SligoRovers1928
                                        6 days, 10 hours ago

                                        My plan is free hit this week then tc in 17 against west ham

                                        1. Richm
                                          • 3 Years
                                          6 days, 10 hours ago

                                          Yeah thinking the same just worried about a Haaland injury and nuno with 10 at the back

                            2. Letsgo!
                              • 9 Years
                              6 days, 11 hours ago

                              How about this fh team?

                              Pickford
                              Munoz cash oreilly
                              Doku rogers kudus mgw salah
                              Haaland thiago

                              1. SligoRovers1928
                                  6 days, 11 hours ago

                                  Looks good, like the punts on Pickford and gibbs white

                                  1. Letsgo!
                                    • 9 Years
                                    6 days, 11 hours ago

                                    Thanks but question if last slot for midfield
                                    Will u take kudus or tavernier?

                                    1. SligoRovers1928
                                        6 days, 11 hours ago

                                        I’d probably go tavernier, mostly because kudus has higher ownership and Is skewed more towards assists

                                • SligoRovers1928
                                    6 days, 11 hours ago

                                    Lads, I think I might be cooked, I have no West Ham players against Liverpool at home this week. Should I just delete my team already???

                                    1. Richm
                                      • 3 Years
                                      6 days, 11 hours ago

                                      Probably, slot machine is out of order maybe finished!

                                  • Keane There Dunne That
                                    • 13 Years
                                    6 days, 11 hours ago

                                    Who to start:
                                    A) Timber
                                    B) Van Dijk

                                    1. SligoRovers1928
                                        6 days, 11 hours ago

                                        Captain Van dijk, Liverpool defense is so trustworthy, just look at their recent results…

                                    2. Yes Ndidi
                                      • 6 Years
                                      6 days, 11 hours ago

                                      Seeing a lot of Salah & Gakpo in FH teams.
                                      Is that more in hope or expectation?

                                      Is WH away an easier fixture for them than Forest at Anfield? Or PSV at Anfield?

                                    3. Letsgo!
                                      • 9 Years
                                      6 days, 11 hours ago

                                      Saka or salah on fh?

                                    4. SpaceCadet
                                      • 11 Years
                                      6 days, 11 hours ago

                                      Fh team g2g?

                                      Kelleher
                                      Cash O’Reilly Munoz
                                      Salah rogers Schade Doku Malen
                                      Haaland Thiago

                                      Dubravka Keane esteve xxxc

                                    5. Yes Ndidi
                                      • 6 Years
                                      6 days, 11 hours ago

                                      Anyway, here's mine for y'all to rip to shreds

                                      Martinez
                                      Cash Munoz Collins
                                      Foden Doku Schade Rogers
                                      Haaland Thiago Bowen/Wilson

                                      Sels Anderson Milenkovic & someone else
                                      loads ITB still

                                      Would like to shoehorn Malen in there somewhere if I could find an alternative to Martinez

                                      1. SligoRovers1928
                                          6 days, 11 hours ago

                                          Looks good for a no salah draft

                                      2. ViperStripes
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        • 16 Years
                                        6 days, 11 hours ago

                                        Play Dubravka or Pope?

                                        1. mixology
                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                          • 13 Years
                                          6 days, 11 hours ago

                                          Check rumours. Pope likely out

                                      3. Pep Roulette
                                        • 8 Years
                                        6 days, 11 hours ago

                                        Thoughts on this FH?

                                        Vicario
                                        VVD Oriley Cash
                                        Salah Gakpo Foden Rogers
                                        Haaland(C) Kolo Thiago

                                        Dubravka Esteve XX XX

                                        1. Sheffield Wednesday
                                          • 5 Years
                                          6 days, 10 hours ago

                                          Get someone cheaper than VVD and upgrade Kolo