Spot the Differential
28 November 2025 194 comments
FPL Scoop FPL Scoop
Share:

Brentford, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest assets are on our differentials radar in Gameweek 13 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

All three of the players below have an ownership of 5% or lower.


DANGO OUATTARA

FPL Gameweek 2: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus + ‘DefCon’ points

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW13-16 fixtures (leaves for AFCON thereafter): BUR | ars | tot | LEE

Brentford are receiving significant backing for Gameweek 13, which is as much to do with their own home form (four wins from six, 12 goals scored) as it is Burnley’s wretched away record (five losses from six, a league-high 18 goals conceded).

Nine-goal frontman Igor Thiago (£6.5m) picks himself. The backline is also receiving plenty of attention, with Kevin Schade (£7.0m) another popular selection.

But what about Dango Ouattara (£6.0m)? 

For a million less outlay, he boasts a slightly better rate of expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes than Schade:

He also blows his teammate out of the water for big chances per 90 minutes (0.87 vs 0.36):

In fact, despite playing just 724 minutes of Premier League action, Ouattara has actually been afforded more Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (seven) than all but four FPL midfielders:

Level with Schade for FPL returns (five each), Ouattara has delivered a goal and three assists in the last four Gameweeks.

Ouattara’s penalty-winning ability is something to note, too. He has won three Premier League spot-kicks this season; no other player has done so on more than one occasion! Also notable is the fact that Burnley have conceded three penalties in 2025/26, the joint-most of any club in the division…

As for those lower minutes, that’s a legacy from when Keith Andrews switched to a 3-5-2 in the ‘tougher’ fixtures. Dango was often the fall guy when that happened – but Andrews definitely won’t do that in Gameweek 13.

It’s possible that there’s a formation switch for Arsenal away in Gameweek 14 (not a worry for those getting Ouattara on a Gameweek 13 Free Hit!) but would you want to start him then anyway? The 23-year-old’s cheaper price tag makes him easier to bench than Schade, too.

The ex-Bournemouth winger is, of course, bound for the Africa Cup of Nations in mid-December. But as a one-week punt, or to play in three of the next four Gameweeks, there are worse picks out there.


MATHEUS NUNES

  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: LEE | ful | SUN | cry | WHU

Nico O’Reilly (£5.1m) is all the rage at the moment. For good reason, too, given the Manchester City left-back’s recent returns. But what about the man on the opposite flank?

Matheus Nunes (£5.3m) is less of a shotaholic than O’Reilly but the pair have still managed the same number of ‘big chances’ (one).

And while O’Reilly’s overall chance creation numbers are superior, both men have two FPL assists to their name.

They each earned defensive contribution (DefCon) points against Liverpool the Gameweek before last and both have two double-digit FPL points hauls this season.

All in all, then, there may not be as much separating the two City full-backs as it first appears. Indeed, O’Reilly is only currently ahead by six FPL points.

Nunes’ selection here is more team-led. His next two opponents, Leeds and Fulham, have each conceded a disproportionate number of crosses down their left flanks (Nunes’s side) in recent weeks:

Focusing only on Leeds, for those Free Hitting, this graph of where the Whites’ opponents have assisted from in 2025/26 (in green) really pinpoints Nunes’ flank as the source of joy:

There is risk to both full-backs, of course. Rico Lewis (£4.8m) and Abdukodir Khusanov (£5.4m) could come in for a game on the right, with Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7m) or Josko Gvardiol (£5.8m) deputising on the left. That, as you well know, is the chance we take when punting on any City player bar Erling Haaland (£14.9m).


NIKOLA MILENKOVIC

  • FPL ownership: 3.7%
  • Price: £5.2m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: BHA | wol | eve | TOT | ful

Thursday’s 3-0 Europa League win against Malmo saw Nikola Milenkovic (£5.2m) return to goalscoring form.

It was Milenkovic’s first goal of the current campaign but he had earlier come close to breaking his duck when his first-half header forced a save. The Serb was involved in Forest’s opener, too, with his deflected cross falling perfectly for Yates.

We know from last season that the 28-year-old has goalscoring pedigree. He netted five times, while he finished joint-top for headed attempts (21) among defenders. So far this term, he’s headed towards goal seven times already.

Interestingly, Forest have had more attempts from set pieces (20) than anyone except Arsenal in their four Gameweeks with Dyche at the helm:

Milenkovic has also encouragingly claimed DefCon points in back-to-back matches.

Forest won this weekend’s corresponding fixture 7-0 last season and while that may not happen again at the City Ground on Sunday, it begins a decent run of games for the Tricky Trees.

Impressively, Forest have conceded fewer Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (two) than any other Premier League club since Dyche arrived. They have also kept four clean sheets and conceded just five goals across seven matches in all competitions.


UCL Fantasy Matchday 5: Best Attacking Return Player Percentages 2

FPL Scoop London-based freelance journalist and editor, frequently with The i Paper, The Standard, Fantasy Football Scout, and BBC Sport. Follow them on Twitter

194 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Mesh
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Which 1 onn FH?

    A. MGW
    B. Kolo Muani

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      A

    2. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      A

    3. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Isn’t MGW a doubt?

  2. tbos83
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Start
    A) James
    B) Caicedo

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

    2. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

  3. RICICLE
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Hey guys! Think I’m settled how on the FH, probably template to buggery but how’s this?

    Martinez
    O’Reilly - Cash - Van den Berg
    Schade - Salah - Rogers - Gakpo - Foden
    Haaland (c) - Thiago (vc)
    ___________________________________
    Dubravka: Reinildo: Esteve: Marc Guiu

    1.5m ITB

    Not changed this for a few days so feel quite settled.

    Opinions welcome cheers gents!

    1. Eze Come, Eze Go
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Like it

      1. RICICLE
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers bud! Either epically flops or turns up trumps, but ready to rock & roll 😉

    2. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Seems standard like you said

      Not that that’s a bad thing.

      1. RICICLE
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Indeed, a lot of low owned players though, well….around 6 or 7 I’d say, hopefully it works 🙂

        Cheers bud, best of luck for this GW.

  4. Eze Come, Eze Go
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Hi all. Not sure who to transfer / bench. Fancy upgrading Minteh to Rogers or bringing in Thiago. Any other comments welcome.

    Dubravka
    VDV - Timber - Munoz
    Saka - Semenyo - Minteh - Mbeumo
    Mateta - Haaland (c) - Woltemade

    Pope - Wieffer - Senesi - Gudmundsson

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Might as well start pope, he’ll hardly get subbed on for ramsdale

  5. Skout
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    How’s this for FH:

    Martinez
    O’Reilly Cash Munoz
    Salah Gakpo Foden Schade Rogers
    Haaland Thiago

    Dubravka Guiu Hartman Reinildo 0.1itb

    1. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Good and classic template. Like the FH 2 posts up is 1 player different

  6. Norco
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    How's the bench boost look?

    Dubravka, Enzo, KDH, Reinildo

  7. Pep Roulette
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    If I've taken a hit and want to FH, will my hit be cancelled?

    1. RICICLE
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Yup 🙂

    2. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      true

  8. AF90
    • 13 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Surprised by the lack of love for Bowen in FH teams....prefer him over Gakpo & Schade who I'm seeing in most teams for starters

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Wilson preferred West Ham forward this week

    2. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I think I would prefer Wilson for 1 week

    3. Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Yeah Bowen is a good option and gets more minutes than Wilson. He’s first on my bench

  9. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    I have milenkovic in my team just cost I can't afford Munoz, but reading this article maybe I should go dango ahead of schade...and pick Munoz instead of Milen...

    A milenkovic and schade
    B Munoz and dango

    Cheers

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      B

    2. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Dango is a good pick. But why Munoz over Milenkovic?

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Seems a better pick and man aren't exactly on fire. Brighton could easily score at NF

        1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Absolutely agree. Munoz and Dango out of those options.

    3. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      I like B

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers

  10. Manani
    • 14 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    would you FH?

    current team:
    Pope
    Timber VVD ORilley
    Saka Sarr Semenyo Kudus
    Mateta Thiago Haaland

    1. Richm
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Similar team here. If I didn’t have TC I would FH

    2. Joelinton Travel Tavern
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      It's not great but its not awful either, could go ok particularly if Ars do well against Che as everyone has FH them out this week

  11. Uns95
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    No love for Watkins?

    Know he's out of form but Wolves are absolutely terrible, could easily see him bagging a couple goals

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      It's all about probabilities for me. And to be honest, no Villa attacker stands out.

    2. Hint
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      On a free hit there's worse shouts but if I was punting I'd go for Malen

  12. hariv
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Start Pope (eve) or Petrovic (sun)?

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      A post on the precious article said Pope might not play.

      1. hariv
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Thanks mate!!!

  13. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Who should be my third defender?

    Martinez
    Munoz Cash X
    Salah Schade Dango Foden Doku
    Haaland Thiago

    Dubravks Mukiele Reinildo Guiu

    1. Richm
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Rogers in mid and then brentford or city defender

      1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Rogers' numbers are extremely poor. I dont trust Villa attack. Reverse for Brentford. City triple up has more upside this week than double attack and on defender. Even if I have to pick one mid which one - Doku or Foden?

        1. Richm
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Early team news might tell you. Foden more nailed people are saying but who knows with pep and a midweek game

    2. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      How much bank? Assuming you can’t get Arsenal I think Porro (some risk he doesn’t start) or Livramento. Given setup doesn’t allow for a Brentford or Man City defender

      1. Casual Player
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I actually quite like the setup by the way.

      2. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        I can afford Califiori

        1. Casual Player
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 1 day ago

          I think do that

          Arsenal are pretty much fixture proof as a DEF and he’s got some attacking upside. I get removing their attackers this week on FH but keeping a DEF seems fine to me.

          Good luck - I think it’s a really nice upside team. Template fixtures, but a bit differential on players

          1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Thanks. Thats the idea. Attack the fixtures, but pick some logical differentials.

  14. Sheffield Wednesday
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Is it worth FH to get Scout's GW13 picks this week over this ragtag selection?

    Pope
    Calafiori Senesi Mukiele Virgil
    Rice Mbeumo B.Fernandes
    Haaland© Woltemade Mateta
    -Dubravka Semenyo* Caicedo Rodon
    1FT £0.7M

    1. Richm
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Play sem and get Thiago.
      Or play fh if no tc

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Cheers

  15. SligoRovers1928
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Thoughts on the free hit team:
    Kelleher
    Cash Munoz o reilly
    Saka salah Rogers shade doku
    Thiago Haaland
    Bench:dubravka, mukiele, esteve, guiu
    Alternatives are a 3-4-3 with mateta instead of Saka or Martinez and van den berg

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Martinez and van den berg would require mukiele down to tuanzebe

    2. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Standard team and standard thoughts that it’s good

      1. SligoRovers1928
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 1 day ago

        No need to try and force Martinez in over kelleher?

  16. GROBARI
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    If I don't FH, what's the best GW to FH (where most good/solid teams have these weak offensive/defensive opponents at home). I hope this question makes sense...

    1. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      It does but I find it impossible to answer without deep diving into your team

      And I’m not sure I’m even invested in my own team enough to do that for myself

    2. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Probably game week 15/16

    3. Caligula's third favou…
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Considering 15 or maybe (risky) 19.

  17. CoracAld2831
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Thiago is currently the most transferred in player this week by a large margin.

    Thiago - 635410
    Eze - 491947
    Munoz - 369788
    Rogers - 361685
    Timber - 283530

    1. Casual Player
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Eze and Rogers - the chase!

    2. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Don’t worry, he won’t blank, he’s not quite bald

  18. CYN
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Appreciate any input here!

    Team is:

    Raya Dubravka
    Calafiori VVD Munoz Senesi Mukiele
    Semenyo Enzo Bruno Ndiaye Stach
    Haaland Mateta Thiago

    A. Enzo and Semenyo -> Foden and Anderson
    B. Enzo and Semenyo -> Foden and Dango
    C. FH

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Probably fh, I wouldn’t be too keen to sell semenyo personally

  19. Natural Selection
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Anyone know if the members cup fixtures been announced yet? I haven't seen an article, not sure if I missed it...

  20. Wolfman180
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    As a fairly pessimistic Lpool fan atm Im tempted with a move for Wilson, either in for Mateta or Woltemade as I just know theyre gonna bloody win arent they lol. Do I go for it?
    I should probably just roll though. Im so torn haha!

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Bring him in and captain him, actually feck it, triple captain him
      You’ll remember it one way or another…

      1. Wolfman180
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Haha love it! So true an all.
        And now itll be sods law that ill bottle it, trip captain Haaland who blanks along with say Woltemade, then Wilson goes on a mad one and im left a sad Lpool fan with no points 😛

        1. SligoRovers1928
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Club over fpl any day, I’m a united fan so hoping for that Wilson hat trick coming your way

        2. SligoRovers1928
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          If Haaland blanks and Wilson hauls I’ll get a bloody half and half City-West ham jersey to commemorate this extraordinary event

          1. Wolfman180
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Imagine the scenes. See now im genuinely conflicted as if that happens ill be aaaaabsolutely kicking myself that I never went for it. But who the hell does such a move!? No, listen to the brain, do not triple captain Wilson, do not triple captain Wilson

  21. Richm
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Which one FH or TC? 1ft
    Pope
    senesi mukiele timber guehi Gabriel
    Sarr Enzo Semenyo saka minteh
    Haaland Mateta Thiago

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      You could just roll but it’s probably the best free hit seem for a lot of teams

      1. Richm
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        You mean free hit?

        1. SligoRovers1928
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          Yeah, I meant best free hit week, really need to turn off autocorrect

          1. Richm
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 1 day ago

            Thanks , torn between it and tc haaland

            1. SligoRovers1928
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 1 day ago

              My plan is free hit this week then tc in 17 against west ham

              1. Richm
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 1 day ago

                Yeah thinking the same just worried about a Haaland injury and nuno with 10 at the back

  22. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    How about this fh team?

    Pickford
    Munoz cash oreilly
    Doku rogers kudus mgw salah
    Haaland thiago

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Looks good, like the punts on Pickford and gibbs white

      1. Letsgo!
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 1 day ago

        Thanks but question if last slot for midfield
        Will u take kudus or tavernier?

        1. SligoRovers1928
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 1 day ago

          I’d probably go tavernier, mostly because kudus has higher ownership and Is skewed more towards assists

  23. SligoRovers1928
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Lads, I think I might be cooked, I have no West Ham players against Liverpool at home this week. Should I just delete my team already???

    1. Richm
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Probably, slot machine is out of order maybe finished!

  24. Keane There Dunne That
    • 13 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Who to start:
    A) Timber
    B) Van Dijk

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Captain Van dijk, Liverpool defense is so trustworthy, just look at their recent results…

  25. Yes Ndidi
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Seeing a lot of Salah & Gakpo in FH teams.
    Is that more in hope or expectation?

    Is WH away an easier fixture for them than Forest at Anfield? Or PSV at Anfield?

  26. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Saka or salah on fh?

  27. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Fh team g2g?

    Kelleher
    Cash O’Reilly Munoz
    Salah rogers Schade Doku Malen
    Haaland Thiago

    Dubravka Keane esteve xxxc

  28. Yes Ndidi
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Anyway, here's mine for y'all to rip to shreds

    Martinez
    Cash Munoz Collins
    Foden Doku Schade Rogers
    Haaland Thiago Bowen/Wilson

    Sels Anderson Milenkovic & someone else
    loads ITB still

    Would like to shoehorn Malen in there somewhere if I could find an alternative to Martinez

    1. SligoRovers1928
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Looks good for a no salah draft

  29. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Play Dubravka or Pope?

    1. mixology
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Check rumours. Pope likely out

  30. Pep Roulette
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 1 day ago

    Thoughts on this FH?

    Vicario
    VVD Oriley Cash
    Salah Gakpo Foden Rogers
    Haaland(C) Kolo Thiago

    Dubravka Esteve XX XX

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 1 day ago

      Get someone cheaper than VVD and upgrade Kolo