Spot the Differential – Gameweek 21

As we head towards this morning’s Gameweek 21 deadline, it’s now time to look at our latest differentials.

Two in-form budget forwards are handed a call-up this week, while a returning Gunner has also caught our eye ahead of an enticing run of fixtures.

Mesut Ozil

Ahead of this afternoon’s clash against lowly Swansea City, who have conceded more goals (45) than any other team this season, we’ve plumped for Arsenal’s Mesut Ozil as our headline act.

The German international has missed the last two matches due to illness, but he’s been passed fit for the match at the Liberty Stadium, and looks set to come straight back into the starting XI.

Encouragingly, Ozil has already netted nine times in all competitions this season – bettering last term’s tally of eight – with five strikes and four assists arriving in the top-flight.

Setting us back 9.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), he could well plunder the points in afternoon’s match-up, given that Swansea have conceded more goals (11) than any other side over the last four Gameweeks, including seven in home defeats to West Ham United and Bournemouth.

Arsene Wenger’s side also face flattering home fixtures against Burnley, Watford and Hull City in the next five, so the option to double-up on the Arsenal attack, along with one of either Alexis Sanchez or Olivier Giroud, could pay off handsomely.

Ozil is currently found in just 7.2% of FPL squads, so although Tottenham pair Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen are currently the flavour of the month, the upcoming fixtures suggest we shouldn’t be too hasty in overlooking the German as a valid contender for our five-man midfields.

Peter Crouch

Having scored two goals and also registered an assist over the last two Gameweeks, Stoke City’s Peter Crouch looks a great option for the Potters trip to the Stadium of Light.

Crouch has taken his chance in recent weeks, and with Jon Walters injured and both Wilfried Bony and Mame Biram Diouf off to the Africa Cup of Nations, he looks certain to keep his place in the starting XI this afternoon.

The 35-year-old also signed a new one-year contract with the club in the week, and should be full of confidence coming up against the struggling Black Cats.

Crouch, who’s available at just 4.7 in FPL, impressively ranks third among forwards for penalty box touches over the last two Gameweeks with 18, while he is joint-fourth for shots inside the box with five.

Those underlying statistics suggest he can continue his recent production against Sunderland, then, coming up against a side who have shipped nine goals in their last four matches, and have allowed more shots from inside the box (42) than any other team over the same period.

The Stoke forward is currently sat in just 1.6% of FPL squads, and with Mark Hughes looking to have few other striking options at the moment, he looks an interesting prospect, particularly for those looking to switch to a 3-5-2 formation.

Andre Gray

Much was expected of Burnley’s Andre Gray during pre-season, but it’s only in recent weeks where the Clarets forward has really started to flourish in the Premier League.

Gray scored the winner in Burnley’s 1-0 win over Middlesbrough in Gameweek 18, and followed that up with a hat-trick in the 4-1 victory over Sunderland in Gameweek 19.

Sean Dyche’s side return to Turf Moor this afternoon to host a Southampton outfit that have leaked goals of late, conceding 10 in their last four matches.

That combination of Gray’s home form and Saints’ struggles on the road make the 6.2-priced forward an intriguing prospect, then, and with his ownership standing at just 4.8% in FPL, he currently appears one of the leading options in that price bracket.

Gray impressively ranks joint-second among forwards for shots inside the box over the last four Gameweeks with eight, and given that includes tough away trips to Tottenham Hotspur and Man City, the former Brentford striker is clearly doing well for a team that ranks 15th for shots inside the box over the same period.

Burnley also face reasonable match-ups against Leicester City and Watford in the next four, so for those Fantasy managers looking to roll the dice on a new forward, Gray’s refreshed CV is worthy of a glance.