Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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  1. cheekumz
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Foster, Fabianski & Milivojevic/Jota

    OR

    Ryan, 4.0 & Townsend

    I dont actually mind having Ryan as a set and forget. He provides excellent value his points per $ is top notch if he matches last years score. I think in terms of points per $ hes better than either Foster or Fab, but if you get the rotations right the playing pair could do better. :S confused.

  2. Benster
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Morning all,

    I'm trying to find some stats on last season's Premier League players and also Championship players to see how many times players like Arnie, Zaha, Jota and Mitro scored a brace etc. So I need something that works for both Prem and Champ divisions, and breaks down the stats on a game by game basis. Have tried understat.com and whoscored.com and neither seem to be ideal.

    Any help please?

    1. luke25
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Soccerbase is pretty good

      1. Benster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Luke you're a legend! That's perfect thanks 🙂

        1. luke25
          • 11 Years
          7 years, 4 months ago

          You're welcome!

  3. SheBangsTheDrums
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Short term punt!

    A) BSilva

    B) Moura

    1. No_Mo_Salah?
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

  4. ignis88
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Yerri Mina chances to start? I'm guessing right about 0 ha

    1. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Tomorrow? Too soon, I'd say.

  5. No_Mo_Salah?
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Do stick with Auba or get Laca?! Thought I was done but article has raised some doubts... Alternative is Firmino and switch to Laca later if need be...

    1. Kiwi Don
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Wait and see if laca starts and switch when good fixtures from gw3

    2. moz_1983
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Thinking the same! I have a 4.5m striker and a 4.5m mid, downgrading means being able to significantly improve one of those bench warmers.

  6. moz_1983
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A) Auba / Dilva / Stephens
    or
    B) Laca / 9.5m / Cairney

    1. SheBangsTheDrums
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

  7. Kiwi Don
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    I hate it, why can't teams post team lists the week of the game so I am not sweating on risky picks.2nd guessing my team, aargh.

  8. OldBenKenobi
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    So many last minute changes....
    Robertson > VVD done! 😯

    1. Andrew
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Can I ask why? Robertson a rotation risk?

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        yeah just that slight doubt putting me off.
        VVD due a goal or two also

  9. ElliotJHP
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Need this season to kick off so productivity can resume

  10. DOGS
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Danny Ings anyone??

    1. ignis88
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      keeping an eye on him

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Aye. I'm even starting him, even if Sparky doesn't!

  11. Everyday im Schneiderlin
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    whats the deal on jorginho chelsea will he play much?

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Most nailed Chelsea mid in the team, but won't set the FPL world on fire

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Every game.

  12. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Kun Zaha and Arnie good enough ?

    Luiz for 5.5 def or PVA/Coleman/other ??

    1. FredrikH
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      All fine, stick my man

    3. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Thanks 😉

    4. llmja
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Look good
      I like PVA

    5. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Yes and pva

  13. Jambot
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A) Alisson and Lennon as 5th Mid
    Or
    B) Pickford and Fraser as 5th mid

    Wish Heaton was fit and problem would be solved

  14. luke25
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Is TFM likely to be first choice for Fulham?

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      These abbreviations are getting out of hand, but probs?

      1. luke25
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Lol it's only because I couldn't remember how to spell his surname, thanks

      2. Madderegern
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Agree

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      him vs Christie for RB isn't it? i'd imagine he'll see game time alright. only loaned out to play

  15. Asbestos City
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    So lost....must have changed this team about 50 times over the past two weeks. I think I lurk these forums too often.

    I still have 1.5 ITB to give me some flexibility for the inevitable knee jerk transfer in GW2. What do you think about this set up heading into this weekend?

    Fabianski
    Mendy-Robertson-A-WB
    Salah-Mane-BSilva-Jota
    Kun-King-Anrie

    Boruc-Tomkins-Peltier-Stephens

    Much appreciated.

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      50? Meh....

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Almost identical to my team! I’m overthinking it now tho. Wondering if I should go bobby over mane and or mendy over Pva 🙁

      1. Asbestos City
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        I was hoping to swap out mane for KDB once he returns, but I'm a moron. I'm still backing Mendy for the foreseeable future. I also can't help but love the lure of Ozil....

    3. GREEN IS GOOD
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Is Stephens nailed this year? Apart from that no problems.

    4. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Ha ha. I’ve got the money for mendy, pva, robbo just think it’s too much money in def.

      Getting firmino in would mean dropping arnie or king and I don’t really want too. Also that would mean a v weak mid salah, bsilva, Richarlison, 6.5, Stephens

  16. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Also, Kepa and Boly or Rui and Luiz?

    1. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Kepa and Boly

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Rui and Luiz

  17. MANGE TOUT RODNEY
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Are we reconsidering Burnley assets after last night's rotation?

    1. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Not for me

    2. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I would go for Lowton but maybe will see how they play first weeks

    3. OldBenKenobi
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      What was the rotation? Currently have Mee in my team

  18. Springbank
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Currently have:

    1) Bernado Silva + Costa

    But thinking of :

    2) Townsend + Jota

    Was thinking that already since yesterday before the differential article was published so not totally knee jerk!! I have Mendy & Aguero in my side but no Zaha.

    Which one is better? Much appreciated.

    1. anish10
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      2

      1. Springbank
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks

  19. Woy
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    https://imgur.com/a/gM6op8X

    What do you think?

    1m spare, so was thinking Richarlison out for Lucas to give me spurs cover?

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I mean, I think this counts as a RMT still....?

      Idek anymore. 😆

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/09/rmt-collection-legomane/

      1. Woy
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        my bad, couldnt find the link!

    2. ElliotJHP
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      dont bother, lucas is average

    3. Michelle Davin
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I am thinking to do the same.

  20. MFPL
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A) TAA & Shaw
    B) Robertson & Peltier (would rotate 3 4.0m defenders to accompany Robbo and Mendy)

    1. anish10
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

  21. bmmc89
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Pickford - (Hamer)
    Mendy - TTA - Shaw - (Wan Bissaka) - (bednarek)
    Salah - Sanchez - Moura - Cairney - (Hudson Odoi)
    Aguero - Firmino - King

    Thoughts? Defence could be stronger i think,,.,

    1. Granville
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Defence is more than strong enough. Good side.

    2. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Hudson-Odoi is a risky pick if you don't plan on playing him gw 1 imo, but please put RMTs in the RMT article. Thank you! 🙂

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/09/rmt-collection-legomane/

    3. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      why not go with Stek as 4mil gk? in case pick is out/ever gets injured

      1. SackWenger
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Agree with this.

    4. SackWenger
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I think I'd go Peltier in place of Bednarek. Have a feeling that there are many rotation risks in that defence and that 5th defender may get called upon and Peltier though also risky has better starting prospects over Bednarek.

  22. myteamissheeeeeeeet
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Anything stand out as bad here please chaps?

    Team is:
    Ederson
    VVD, Luiz, Sclupp/Tomkins
    Salah, BSilva, Richarlison, Mane
    Arnie, Kun, Zaha

    Hamer, Cairney, AWB, Peltier
    (I know it’s a shocking bench)

    Any news on Cedric as I’d take him over the Palace lads?

    1. BadgersBoys
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Nope. As about as 'template as they come. Looks alright though.

    2. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Bench is fine and the first team is fine.

      Only issue is that this should be on the RMT article 🙂

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/08/09/rmt-collection-legomane/

  23. anish10
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    A) Bavies + Cairney
    or
    B) Chambers + Richarlison

    1. GE
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      A

  24. kinghenry14
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    best 4.5 mid? cheers

    1. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      There isn’t one I don’t think unfortunately. Stephens prob the best for the two pointers

    2. luke25
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      I've gone for Billing

  25. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Is Gunnarsson nailed?
    Currently on Stephens but he has more ownership that can lead to price drop.
    Any thought on this?
    Ta.

    1. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Could also go for McDonald or Billing

    2. GE
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      The percentage drop is the factor so can't see that many drop Stephens

  26. GE
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    1) or 2)? 🙂

    1) Zaha and Stephens
    2) King and Cairney

    Patricio (Hamer)
    Robertson/Mendy/Luiz (W-B, Peltier)
    Salah/Mane/Bilva/Rich (xxx)
    Aguero/Arnie/xxx

    1. anish10
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      1

    2. Springbank
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      2

  27. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Who are you most exposed to going into GW1? As in who will give you a jolly good bumming if they score well because they are not in your team?

    For me it’s:

    VVD
    Robbo (went 3 Liverpool forwards instead)
    Kun
    Auba

    But to be honest I’m not overly worried on either Kun or Auba, particularly inGW1

    1. ElliotJHP
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Mane, and I think he bloody will too

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 15 Years
        7 years, 4 months ago

        Too risky not to get him imo... if sterling is 11.0m, Mané should be at least 10.0 if not 10.5, OOP forward playing in a lethal attack, and gets points for clean sheets into the bargain

  28. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Hi guys please help me out.

    Who are the two best 4.5 defenders?

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Tomkins Cedric both look a bit underpriced, good attacking threat & chances of clean sheets... one starting/1 first sub looks a good use of funds

    2. kennethrhcp
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 4 months ago

      Tomkins is a decent shout
      Cedric if fit & plays
      gamble could be kiko

  29. Danstoke82
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    Best 4.0 keeper?

  30. aydeepee69
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 4 months ago

    My biggest dilemma
    1 prem striker + king + tosun
    OR
    2 prem strikers + bench fodder

    I have Salah in MF as reg captain

    Any thoughts?