Scout Notes
19 February 2023 562 comments
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We assess the key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from Southampton’s surprise win over Chelsea in our latest Scout Notes piece.

The numbers and graphics you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data for every single Premier League fixture.

TOOTHLESS CHELSEA

Chelsea’s poor form under Graham Potter continued on Saturday, as they slumped to a 1-0 defeat against managerless Southampton.

The result means the Blues have now won just two of their last 14 games in all competitions. And it’s clear where their main issue lies, with just six goals scored in their last nine Premier League matches.

Creating opportunities isn’t necessarily the problem, particularly yesterday, as they racked up 17 shots, including two Opta-defined ‘big chances’. They do, however, need to become more clinical in front of goal, highlighted by their post-World Cup -6.65 expected goals (xG) delta.

GameweekOpponentScoreShotsBig chancesxG
24Southampton (h)0-11721.62
23West Ham (a)1-11211.15
22Fulham (h)0-01221.33
21Liverpool (a)0-01141.65
20Crystal Palace (h)1-01541.52
19Fulham (a)2-12042.17
19Man City (h)0-1800.42
18Nott’m Forest (a)1-1720.94
17Bournemouth (h)2-01521.84

Chelsea, who were also beaten 1-0 at Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League in midweek, went behind through a trademark James Ward-Prowse (£6.2m) free-kick. The goal was his fifth in eight matches and the first Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.7m) has conceded in three home Premier League games.

Potter made six changes to his side to face Southampton, including handing David Datro Fofana (£5.0m) his full Chelsea debut up front. It was all change on the flanks, too, as Noni Madueke (£5.5m) and Mason Mount (£7.3m) replaced Hakim Ziyech (£5.5m) and Mykhailo Mudryk (£6.9m).

However, the former failed to make much of an impact and was hooked at half-time. His replacement, Raheem Sterling (£9.7m), will be wondering just how he didn’t score, having been denied by last-ditch blocks on no fewer than four occasions.

Above: Raheem Sterling registered four shots v Southampton in just 45 minutes

Reece James (£5.8m) and Thiago Silva (£5.5m) also missed out, as Potter continues to manage his players’ workload.

“No injuries. More just the turnaround and demand of the games considering a few of them had injuries previously. With Reece [James], two 90s in a row, which is more than we expected at the start of the week. It was a case of managing the load and managing the squad.” – Graham Potter

A serious injury to Cesar Azpilicueta (£4.8m) completed a miserable afternoon for Chelsea, who were booed off at full-time.

They now have a rare week-long break before they make the trip to London rivals Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 25.

“He’s in hospital, so he’s in the best place. He’s conscious and he was speaking to his wife so that’s good. We were obviously really concerned, especially when it first happened, but hopefully he’s in the best place and we’ll keep monitoring him. I think he was unconscious when it happened so we have to take all the precautions we need to take now and make sure he’s okay, but it was worrying. It was a horrible incident.” – Graham Potter on Cesar Azpilicueta

“I think the truth is we took a step back in performance, especially in the first half. It was a below-par performance in the first half. Returning from the Champions League and we had to make a couple of changes so you lose a bit of fluidity, you lose a bit of cohesion.

Southampton set up with a plan and an idea, they mixed up the game well with a big target man, but our performance wasn’t what we wanted in the first half and I take as much responsibility as anyone for that.

The response in the second half was good but it wasn’t good enough. I thought we deserved a goal. We created enough chances, good enough chances, to score but when we don’t then obviously it’s difficult to win football matches.

When we’ve lost 1-0 at home to Southampton and, with the greatest respect to them, it’s not good enough, because of the results we’ve had recently. As I said, the first half was as much my responsibility as anybody’s, the performance wasn’t good.

I thought the second-half performance was better and I thought we deserved to score. If you score then the game changes around but at the same time 1-0 isn’t good and we’re disappointed with that.” – Graham Potter

SAINTS UNDER SELLES

Southampton recorded just their second Premier League clean sheet of the season at Stamford Bridge, in their first match under interim boss Ruben Selles.

The Spaniard made three changes from Nathan Jones’ last line-up, as Armel Bella Kotchap (£4.5m), Mohamed Elyounoussi (£5.2m) and Stuart Armstrong (£4.7m) returned in place of Mohammed Salisu (£4.4m), James Bree (£4.5m) and Carlos Alcaraz (£5.0m).

Lining up in a 4-4-1-1/4-4-2 formation, the Saints twice went close before taking the lead, with Kamaldeen Sulemana (£5.0m) and Stuart Armstrong registering efforts on goal. However, the deadlock was broken by a familiar source, with Ward-Prowse scoring his third free-kick goal of the season so far.

“It’s a familiar way of playing for us. We want to be front footed and take the game to teams, especially if Chelsea themselves aren’t in a great moment.” – James Ward-Prowse

Selles has made no secret of his desire to become Southampton’s permanent manager, and this performance will have done his hopes no harm at all.

“We saw a team that works together and fights together and it is how we need to play from now for every single minute. When we perform at our best we can beat anybody. I feel that from now the teams we face are going to have to be at their best to beat us.

We saved a goal at Stamford Bridge and leading 1-0 that means something, it has to mean something and we celebrate them. Let’s see what happens. We got the result, the boys are together. We will see how to beat Leeds next week.” – Interim Southampton manager Ruben Selles



562 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. WATERMELONS
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Im really torn on getting rid of Bruno after another haul. He has been incredible for me.

    But I need to shift him to free up funds. Sure a lot of people in the same boat.

    Anyone holding? Only have 8 players for this week currently

    1. putana
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      im getting rid for salah. 2 games vs 0. easy switch

    2. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Look to the future not the past that’s how u maximise gains

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      I'm getting rid of him too for Salah. Keeping Trippier, Shaw and Rashford because I'd lose more money on them.

    4. Wobbles
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Same but I won't lose any value in him and will look to bring him back in when we have more info about upcoming blanks and doubles.

    5. GC123
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      I’m holding. Was selling but today changed my mind

    6. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Shifting for salah but can always get him back on wc

  2. Norco
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    In a right mess for GW25. I can only field 6 players, literally looking at a -12 to be able to get 10 out.

    Thoughts on the below?

    Shaw > TAA
    Botman > Tarko
    Bruno > Gakpo
    Mitrovic > Nunez
    Ederson > Forster

    Which would give me:

    Kepa (Forster)
    TAA Gabriel Tarko Patto (Trips)
    Odegaard Saka Mitoma Gakpo (Rashford)
    Kane Haaland Nunez

    1. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      -12 crikey. Are those players you want to keep? Even if you’re WC soon after, throwing all your eggs in one basket is risky with liverpool assets

    2. Wobbles
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Nope! This free hit territory.

    3. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Don’t think you need a -12

    4. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Absolutely no way, especially as you're moaning about not fielding enough and shifting out two who have a game, bringing in a reserve keeper who won't play once number 1 is back (so future transfer if you want to BB), two Liverpool assets whose minutes are under threat from those returning from injury

      1. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        And an Everton defender

    5. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Seems extreme
      Selling Ederson for a hit when they play Bournemouth is crazy for example

    6. MOTHRA
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      I would -12 for this week. Especially as those assets are not long term ones. There has to be a better way…

      1. MOTHRA
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        I would NOT -12

  3. TFP
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    I know that this BGW/DGW hybrid has more traps in it than Kevin's house in Home Alone, but, seriously, Joe Gomez... what do people reckon his prospects for gametime are this week?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Matip available is the issue

    2. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Not reliable for xMins imo. He’ll be in and out of the squad. Even if he starts both games this DGW, might not the games after

      1. TFP
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        party poopers.

        1. Scalper
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          Have u considered Tark if you don’t own him

        2. TFP
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          yeah... i mean, the sensible thing for me to do would just be to use my 2 FT to do make my long-overdue transfers out of Almiron and Doherty to get in, say, Tark and JWP [yeah, I know, but he's got Leeds in the blank and a double on the horizon]... but... the Liverpool assets are so red and shiny...

          1. Scalper
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 17 days ago

            Tark is nice, JWP though? Any other options?

    3. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      You answered your own question.

      Paint can swinging down the stairs

    4. BrockLanders
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Konate is expected back soon too

    5. MOTHRA
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      I nearly did Gomez, but he’s burnt me before so I went Tark, good bench fodder and could be more upside under Dyche.

  4. putana
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    who would you sell for TAA: patterson or shaw?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Not sure if serious

    2. Rhodes your boat
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Patterson if you already have 11 starters

    3. Bobby Digital
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Pat

    4. Eastman
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Patterson. Have to keep Shaw really

    5. _Make
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Just sack Pat

    6. MOTHRA
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Patt if you want Trent long term and it doesn’t break your budget flexibility.

  5. Eastman
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Mahrez and Bruno > Salah JWP?
    Will bring Bruno back in but will have JWP secured for the 27 double
    Make sense?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      If that is the plan why don't you go for a Brighton midfield instead? Mac Allister and Mitoma would be my 2 picks

      1. Eastman
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        Just that JWP has a decent fixture while Brighton blank

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          But a rubbish double....

  6. Zimo
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    God I wish Ronaldo had never come. United would still have Cavani. Has the same work ethic as Weghorst but can actually score as well.

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Part of me wonders if we'd have had Haaland too.

      But then part of me also see's how well we are playing under ETH and is pleased to be where we are and it's things like Ronaldo's signing that has led us here

      1. DMP
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        Lets be honest.
        United sucks for ages. Way before Ronaldo.

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          Yes. But that second half of the season under Ralph was a dark dark time

      2. Bushwhacker
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        Lol - Haaland was never ever ever ever going to sign for United.

  7. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Was planning Bruno for a couple DGWers but feels dirty with Southampton at home next GW

  8. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Ederson, Shaw, KDB to Alison, Tarkowski, Salah for-8?

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      No

    2. MOTHRA
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      No.

  9. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Don’t want to tear up my team getting in Pool assets but also on a roll, up 500k places in a few weeks to 150k.

    Got 2FTs and tempted by only getting TAA in. Chance I only end up for 7 or 8 playing.

    Ward
    TAA Tarky Lewis White
    Saka Ode Mahrez
    Haaland Kane

    DDG Trippier Rashford Mitoma Toney

    Thoughts? Comments? Deliberations?

    1. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Can see a slide back down after next week

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Thinking same. 27 doubles look good and we'll know who is blanking in 28 by the next deadline so I think roll is valuable. Thinking a punt on Trent and only spending second if Mitro confirmed out

      1. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        If Darwin is confirmed fit I’d be tempted for him from Toney but as you say, two frees continually may be invaluable.

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          You'll want Toney back? Mitro to Toney is something I'm eyeing in 26 or 27

          1. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 17 days ago

            I would, 100%.

            Plan is to have Toney, Mitoma for doubles. Plus Estupinan probably.

            1. Biggsy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              3 years, 17 days ago

              Then I'd definitely hold Toney

  10. Here is Cash, give McGinn
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    I have 2 FTs and got the money. I have Botman, Shaw, Trippier, Rashford and Toney.
    Would you just do Botman -> TAA and save other? Yay or nay? I dont really want to get rid of anyone else

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Yes I would. And probably will

  11. Sheffield Wednesday
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Factoring Mahrez rotation and minutes risk, who is better to keep GW25:

    a) Kane (CHE)
    b) Mahrez (bou)

    If Mahrez doesn't play then Neves would sub.

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Mahrez could also sub.

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        What do you mean? Neves would auto-sub if Mahrez doesn't play. I did put that Mahrez is a minutes risk which includes coming on as a sub.

        1. _Make
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          I think he means he could come on for a low-scoring cameo

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      If you're asking which of those two to sell, presumably to fund Salah, then B. Not sure I'd sell either personally

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        OK, put more simply, "Who scores more GW25, taking into account rotation and minutes risk?"

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          I think B - he's had his rest so should start. FA Cup Vs minnows to come after Bournemouth if he needs another

          1. Sheffield Wednesday
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 17 days ago

            thanks

    3. MOTHRA
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Kane.

      1. MOTHRA
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        I’d keep both. I am keeping both.

  12. Ange Ball
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Worth minus 4

    A) Alm Shaw KDB》Salah Grealish Robbo
    B) Alm Shaw KDB》 Gakpo Grealish Robbo

    1. DangerFC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Can you do kdb to salah alone?

      1. Ange Ball
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        Yes

  13. Snooze ya lose
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Why won’t fpl update?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Monkeys have found the key.

    2. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Literally waiting for my gameweek rank here

  14. abaalan
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    A) Kane + KDB + Shaw -> Darwin + Salah + TAA -4
    B) KDB + Shaw -> Salah + Tarkowski
    C) Martinelli + Mahrez + Kane -> Salah + Odegaard + Watkins -4 (means keeping KDB but no bench)

    2ft, 0.8 itb

    1. DangerFC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      B, but I don't losing shaw

  15. DangerFC
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Better options for gameweek 25

    A TAA and Gakpo
    B Salah and bueno

    If B il captain salah

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Prefer b but bueno May only play 1

  16. thegaffer82
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Almost certainly doing Ake > Tark to fund Bruno > Salah with my 2FT.
    But, considering the Mahrez no-show, I am very much considering a cheeky Mahrez > Gakpo for a -4.
    Risky with Jota back, but I still think Gakpo will be first choice, and even 100minutes over the double would be acceptable.
    It could be genius if Mahrez has ‘done a a Foden’ and won’t be seen again for a month.

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Mahrez was rested because Pep loves him in CL. I think he'll play Vs BOU

      1. thegaffer82
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        Probably not worth it if that’s the case.
        You just never know with Pep.
        I held on to Foden for too long thinking he ‘loved him’ too

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 17 days ago

          I may be wrong. But Gakpo is a similar minutes risk with Jota and Firmino returning

  17. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Does salah outscore gakpo by 4 points DGW25?

    1. DangerFC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      I think so

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        Ok cheers both

    2. _Make
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Yep

    3. thegaffer82
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Liverpool must be due a penalty soon, surely!

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 17 days ago

        Ok cheers will cost me -4 to get salah by selling Bruno, Shaw and trip

  18. Muller Reus Corner
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    KDB, Fernandes and Patterson to Salah, Gakpo and Gomez -4?

  19. Gudjohnsen
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    A. Tarkowski, Salah
    B. TAA, Gakpo

    1. EL_FENOMENO
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      B

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      A ; Gakpo will not play one

  20. FPL Emu
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Agh, I've got exactly enough for these moves. Will try to wait as long as possible, but what do you think?

    KDB, Mahrez, Trippier -> Salah, JWP, Robertson (-4)

    1. FPL Emu
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      JWP doesn't double now obviously, but has lee, LEI, double

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Horrible. Genuinely. You'll want Trippier back, KDB and Mahrez could go big Vs Bournemouth. JWP a poor option. Get Salah for KDB but I wouldn't do the rest

    3. TFP
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      your exposure to city's midfield is definitely too high ATM so maybe a change there does make sense.

      i quite like jwp in the short-to-medium term, for the reasons you provide. Leeds are terrible, next leicester at home is also very good, and then there's an IMO not terrible double.

      i'm not sure i can really get behind replacing trippier with robbo.

  21. Tartan Brazilians
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Bruno, KDB, Cucurella to Saka (C), Salah, Robbo -8 to field 11 with 6DGW players?

  22. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    Looking at GW 27 means not playing some good single week players, not sure it's worth it. E.g Playing Toney means dropping a decent midfielder.

  23. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    KDB + Schar —> Salah + TAA

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Yes

  24. Steve Stiffler
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 17 days ago

    2FT, 2.4ITB

    A) Pattersen, Bruno, Mahrez > Tark, Salah, Grealish (10 players for a hit)
    B) Pattersen, Bruno, Greenwood > Tark, Gakpo, Watkins (11 players for a hit)
    C) Pattersen, Bruno > TAA, Gakpo (10 players)

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 17 days ago

      Why lose Mahrez? A otherwise