Is FPL Gameweek 38 usually a goal-fest?

There’s a perception that each season’s final day of Premier League action is a party of attacking football. As we enter Gameweek 38 of 2023/24, let’s see if Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are right to think it’ll be a goal-fest.

Should it be true, some exciting differential punts are about to look even more attractive.

But are these high-scoring climaxes just a myth?

Let’s study the goals and clean sheets of the last 13 season-enders, which is as far back as the data goes in our Premium Members Area.

FINAL DAY GOALS

While acknowledging the small sample, there is seemingly some weight behind the theory. The final day of all 13 seasons contained more goals per game than that season’s average, with only 2013/14 being close.

Each of the most recent eight campaigns has seen at least 30 goals on the final day, peaking at 2021/22’s 39. It included four matches with five or more goals.

This usually coincides with a lower-than-average number of clean sheets, although not on four out of the 13 occasions.

Additionally, to excite FPL managers further, 2023/24 already has far more goals (1,199) than the previous Premier League record – last season’s 1,084. And there are still 13 matches left.

Alongside this are fewer successful shut-outs than ever before. The 149 by the end of Gameweek 36 have an average rate of just 4.14 per round, which is worse than past campaigns by quite a distance.

HIGH-SCORING MATCHES

These are the games with at least six goals:

• Manchester United 4-2 Blackpool – 2010/11
• Newcastle United 3-3 West Bromwich Albion – 2010/11
• West Bromwich Albion 5-5 Manchester United – 2012/13
• West Ham United 4-2 Reading – 2012/13
• Leicester City 5-1 Queens Park Rangers – 2014/15
• Stoke City 6-1 Liverpool – 2014/15
• Newcastle United 5-1 Tottenham Hotspur – 2015/16
• Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland – 2016/17
• Hull City 1-7 Tottenham Hotspur – 2016/17
• Tottenham Hotspur 5-4 Leicester City – 2017/18
• Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth – 2018/19
• Leicester City 2-4 Tottenham Hotspur – 2020/21
• Arsenal 5-1 Everton – 2021/22
• Southampton 4-4 Liverpool – 2022/23

One of the most memorable fixtures is surely Sir Alex Ferguson’s final match as Manchester United manager, where an epic 5-5 draw at West Bromwich Albion occurred.

Maybe there could be a similarly entertaining goodbye for Jurgen Klopp when Liverpool host Wolverhampton Wanderers.

FPL managers will recall some big individual scores. Who can forget Kevin De Bruyne (£10.6m) bringing in two goals, an assist and 19 points during Manchester City’s 5-0 closer of 2019/20? Or left-back Patrick van Aanholt delivering the goods at both ends for an 18-point haul in 2017/18?

Last May, Harry Kane‘s final game for Spurs concluded with two goals, an assist and 16 points. He’d previously bagged 17 points with his 2016/17 hat-trick at Hull City.

GAMEWEEK 38 FIXTURES

In fact, Spurs specialise in final-day goal-fests. This will be the fifth time in nine seasons that they end by travelling to an already-relegated side. The others totalled 24 goals – last year’s 4-1 win at Leeds United, a 5-0 victory over Norwich City, that Hull trip finished 7-1 and they lost 5-1 to Newcastle United in 2015/16.

Also, throw in a pair of Leicester City meetings that ended 5-4 and 4-2.

Pedro Porro (£5.9m) scored and assisted at Leeds, whilst Son Heung-min (£10.0m) netted twice versus Norwich.

That’s why next Sunday’s visit to Sheffield United immediately stands out. The Blades have broken the Premier League record for most goals conceded (101), meaning it could be a fruitful afternoon for Son and Brennan Johnson (£5.8m).

Although all three relegation spots are now filled, the top eight are still competitive. Names like Alexander Isak (£8.4m) and Cole Palmer (£6.3m) are fighting for both Europa League football and – less likely – the Golden Boot.

Meanwhile, Man City and Arsenal are in a dramatic race to become champions. Pep Guardiola’s team host West Ham, who’ve allowed the third-most shots on target (229) and big chances (108) so far.

As for the Gunners, they wrap up at home to Everton, just like two seasons ago. On that occasion, it was a comfortable 5-1 win. Sandwiched in between is a 5-0 home thrashing of Wolves.

Popular assets Erling Haaland (£14.2m), Phil Foden (£8.5m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.9m) have serious haul potential, as does lesser-owned Kai Havertz (£7.5m).