Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his usual weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 8. The topics include selling Luis Diaz (£8.0m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.1m) and Arsenal assets, when to buy Cole Palmer (£10.8m), and the pros and cons of Phil Foden (£9.2m).
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Q: What’s the best thing to do with Luis Diaz?
(via FPL VIRGIN)
A: Luis Diaz (£8.0m) was benched for the first time this season against Crystal Palace after he started midweek for Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League. After the game, Arne Slot did mention that he perhaps needed to rotate more players given the short turnaround from Wednesday evening to the Saturday early kick-off.
So, I do believe that given the importance of the upcoming fixture and it being on a Sunday (which allows Diaz sufficient time to recover from his international exertion), he will start against Chelsea.
This is the sternest test the Merseyside outfit have faced under Slot, with all due respect to Manchester United. Chelsea have defensive problems of their own, with Marc Cucurella (£5.0m) and Wesley Fofana (£4.5m) suspended. Granted, they do have able deputies in Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.4m) and (probably) Renato Veiga (£4.5m) but it does upset the rhythm of a team that was just beginning to look settled. I expect there to be goals for both sides in this fixture. With Malo Gusto (£4.9m) potentially inverting into midfield in Cucurella’s absence, Diaz could get some joy down that flank.
That being said, if you look at Liverpool’s schedule in the above image, they have a lot of midweek games coming up. These are against tough opponents such as Real Madrid, RB Leipzig, Brighton and Hove Albion etc. We can expect some rotation and shuffling and I think after the game against Chelsea, Diaz is a sell.
If you can get up to Cole Palmer (£10.8m) in two moves, or if you are convinced of Brennan Johnson’s (£6.6m) prospects, I don’t mind the idea of selling him for either of those two. You could even go for Phil Foden (£9.2m) if the xMins risk is acceptable but I like the idea of giving Diaz one more week to judge the replacements. The Newcastle United fixture feels like a better entry point for Palmer.
Q: To get Phil Foden or not?
Q. Excluding Erling Haaland, is there a must-have Manchester City player for their next few fixtures?
(via @al_chanos and Sheffield Wednesday)
A: Manchester City’s run over the next four Gameweeks is exceptional. The reigning champions play Wolverhampton Wanderers, Southampton, Bournemouth and Brighton before the next international break.
Their attacking numbers have dipped a bit over the last four Gameweeks. They have created only nine big chances (ranking 12th), the same number as Bournemouth and Ipswich Town. Erling Haaland (£15.4m) has only had three such opportunities. We do expect this number to improve, though, given the schedule.
At the time of writing, there is no update from official sources or journalists on Kevin De Bruyne’s (£9.4m) fitness. The last we heard from Pep Guardiola was that the Belgian was expected back after the international break, so even if he is unavailable for Gameweek 8, it is safe to assume that we would see him return before the November internationals at the latest. There is no doubt that the Cityzens have missed him: he created 16 chances in just four appearances.
While it is possible for both him and Foden to play together, I think having the Belgian back does put a bit of doubt on Foden’s expected minutes. It would be a different case if Foden was in red-hot form like last year and undroppable. He’s not up to sharpness and while it might be a case of fixtures breed form, I think there is too much of a risk going there now. There could be a scenario where Foden is poor against Wolves and then becomes a rotation risk going into Southampton. He’d then be at risk of a price drop.
Of course, there is also the opportunity cost of spending that £9.2m. There are other players who can match Foden’s output at a cheaper price. By going for him, you are likely going without one of Palmer or Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) when you will very likely want both by Gameweek 12.
However, Foden in Gameweek 8 is similar to the Palmer of Gameweek 6. Very few active FPL managers own him. He is a massive differential going into a good spell of fixtures. If you are chasing, or have free transfers to spare, I do like the move. A haul could massively soar you up the rankings.
Elsewhere, I still think Josko Gvardiol (£5.9m) and Rico Lewis (£4.7m) are decent picks depending on your budget. Lewis will miss the odd game but the upside over the next four matches is massive. Gvardiol is also likely to get much more attacking license in these games.
Q: How do you feel about losing Trent Alexander-Arnold for 6-7 weeks in order to get an extra premium midfielder?
(via @lateriser12)
A: Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.1m) and Liverpool’s numbers have been discussed in great detail in this piece. I also mentioned them in my previous article over the second international break.
I like this line from the conclusion of the first article:
“Liverpool are more controlled, meticulous and possession-based under Slot. The chances created by Alexander-Arnold, in turn, tend to be more methodical and intricate.
“Crucially, they haven’t yet lowered his expected assist output – on the contrary, in fact.”
To summarise, Trent has relied on clean sheet points largely for his FPL output so far but the underlying data has improved from last season. It’s possible that over the tougher games, the clean sheet returns dry up – particularly due to Alisson’s (£5.5m) absence – but the attacking returns average out.
An exercise I would recommend doing is building a team for Gameweek 12, which is the next big fixture swing and the next main window when Wildcards will be activated. Personally, I’m pretty sure I want Haaland, Palmer and Saka for that run. Liverpool’s schedule isn’t terrible over that time so I can see the appeal of owning Alexander-Arnold. However, Chelsea and Arsenal players are likely going to be your priority. It’s possible, but difficult, to own the aforementioned trio and Alexander-Arnold with a balanced squad.
So keeping that in mind, I think losing him for the additional premium attacker is an acceptable compromise. There’s nothing wrong with holding him. though: he is likely to be the top-scoring defensive asset this season.
Q: Who is the best Trent Alexander-Arnold replacement below £5.0m for the longer term?
(via @PriteshShetty87)
A: The next question naturally becomes who do you replace Alexander-Arnold with?
Keeping the schedule and the above attacking data in mind, I think there are a few options: Nathan Collins (£4.5m), Leif Davis (£4.5m), Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.4m) and Nikola Milenkovic (£4.5m).
Davis’ underlying data has been exceptional and the left-back has been unlucky not to have more attacking returns so far. However, with Ipswich Town conceding so many goals, bonus points are going to be hard to come by. The possibility of a big haul seems unlikely till they tighten up.
Collins’ entry point isn’t great this week but the way Brentford play, they always pose an attacking threat from set pieces – and the former Wolves man seems to be their main target. The fixtures are mixed but I like the home games and he rotates well with an Everton defender if you already own one.
Forest’s defensive stats have been exceptional and the Tricky Trees play three of their next four games at home. The schedule does take a turn for the worse after that, however, with fixtures against Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Brentford. Ideally, the defender you transfer in should be for the longer term so you can focus your future moves on the big hitters and premium options. So, Milenkovic feels like a short-term option.
The player I’m favouring, and this is more based on future promise, is Ait-Nouri. Granted, the game against Manchester City is one you want to avoid – and possibly the one against Brighton as well. After that, the schedule for the West Midlands outfit is brilliant. You don’t need to plan a transfer out for Ait-Nouri for the next 8-10 Gameweeks as a result. Given his attacking potential, he’s someone you would be happy to play every week. He’s also the cheapest option of the four, so the cash saving is a big part of the appeal.
Q: Kai Havertz vs Dominic Solanke vs Ollie Watkins. Is it a case of holding whichever one we have for this Gameweek?
(via Sir Matt Bugsby)
A: This is a question I’m asking myself as a Kai Havertz (£8.3m) owner. The data for Havertz has been exceptional over the last two Gameweeks but that of course has a lot to do with the quality of opposition faced – Leicester City and Southampton. He’s yet to score away from home this season but they’ve had some difficult away games at Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur and Man City, so that’s more happenstance than any pattern in my opinion.
I currently only have one Arsenal defender and the plan was to get David Raya (£5.6m) in around Gameweek 12. That’s when the Gunners’ fixtures improve again. The idea was to sell Havertz in Gameweek 8/9 for Dominic Solanke (£7.6m) to free up that third Arsenal slot but I have mixed feelings about what I have seen from Solanke so far. Seven big chances over the last four Gameweeks is top amongst forwards, and that should mean an auto inclusion given his minutes certainty, but the fact that he had zero shots against Brighton does concern me a bit. It could just have been a tactical plan against the Seagulls’ high line, of course.
When I look at Spurs’ schedule over the next six Gameweeks, I definitely want one of their attackers. Right now, I’m not sure if Johnson or Solanke is the one. I think it is Solanke given the security of minutes but the decision can maybe wait a week. I believe Bournemouth will play an open game, which will suit the Gunners, and the fixture could potentially see more goals than Spurs v West Ham. By contrast, I’d expect the Hammers to sit in a deep block.
But while Havertz could outscore Solanke this week, the likelihood of the Spurs man coming out on top over the next four Gameweeks is higher; Arsenal next play Liverpool, Newcastle and Chelsea.
So keeping the above in mind, and that Havertz is not someone I intend on holding long term, I think moving to Solanke makes sense this Gameweek. I think the same would apply to Ollie Watkins (£9.1m), as well. Fulham have good defensive numbers and after Bournemouth, Villa are away to Spurs and Liverpool.
Q: Is it too dangerous not to get Cole Palmer in immediately?
(via FPL VIRGIN)
A: I couldn’t wrap up this week’s Q&A without discussing Cole Palmer. There has been a lot of debate in the community about whether you rotate your premium assets according to fixtures or just pick and stick with the ‘best’ premium assets. If you are on the former, I think you go without Palmer. However, from the data we have seen so far, the eye test and the stats, Palmer looks like one of the top three premium assets in the game.
If you are somewhere in the middle ground, like me, I think you let Palmer go this week and plan to bring him in next week for Newcastle at home. Palmer’s returns were skewed massively towards home matches this season and a visit to Anfield is always a daunting fixture for any side. Slot’s Liverpool are not as gung-ho as Jurgen Klopp’s and I don’t think Palmer will have as many chances. I’m likely bringing him in for Diaz next week if Saka is passed fit. If Saka is out, depending on the length of absence, Saka to Palmer will be my likely move.
Q: What is the best front three, if you can afford them, in the next couple of weeks?
(via Scout user: ELS365)
A: I will keep this short. Haaland and Solanke are the two easy ones based on the information mentioned earlier in the article. For the third one, I like Matheus Cunha (£6.5m) with Wolves’ excellent schedule from Gameweek 9. I would pay the extra money for him over Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.5m) given the security of minutes. The Brazilian should also have penalty-taking duties in his locker.
Q: Is it possible to go without any Arsenal on Gameweek 8 Wildcard?
(via @FPL_Tbox)
A: Possibly yes but I would start making plans to bring two or three Arsenal players in by Gameweek 12. So, try to build a stable squad that will not necessarily be booking in any short-term transfers.
That’s all for me for this week. It was a longer article than usual as I couldn’t make the Gameweek 8 episode of the FPL Wire. You can check out said video/podcast here.
