Scout Notes
1 May 2023 71 comments
FPL Marc FPL Marc
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We continue our analysis of the Gameweek 34 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action in our Scout Notes series.

Here, we focus on the Sunday showdowns of Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth v Leeds United.

Any numbers you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.


SALAH STILL ON PENALTIES

To the relief of his new owners and especially to those who risked putting the captain’s armband on him, Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) ended his run of missed penalties to put Liverpool 3-0 up after just 15 minutes.

The Egyptian was unable to convert in either Gameweek 27 or Gameweek 30 but put this spot-kick high and central. He’s now on nine goals from his last nine starts, with this return to form putting him as the league’s best for expected goal involvement (xGI) since Gameweek 23.

Above: Expected goal involvement (xGI) since Gameweek 23

It was Salah’s sole return from Liverpool’s four goals – avoiding all bonus points – meaning he’s still one point behind Erling Haaland‘s (£12.4m) Sunday success but captainers will remain confident that the midweek meeting with Fulham can justify their decision to go slightly rogue.

FPL managers have clamoured to buy Salah for these final weeks, as the Cottagers are the first of some attractive final fixtures for in-form Liverpool and their pursuit of a top-four finish.

He currently has the most penalty area touches of this current Gameweek and, in the opening weekend’s reverse meeting with Fulham, bagged a goal and assist.

ANOTHER TRENT ASSIST

It’s hard to determine whether Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.6m) is as essential. Ownership has dramatically increased since he moved to an inverted full-back role five games ago. He has set up goals in all of them, making him the first player in Premier League history to have two runs of assisting in five consecutive matches.

Yet there’ll be some disappointment at a four-point return, as his cross for Curtis Jones‘ (£4.9m) third-minute goal had managers dreaming of a double-digit haul. Instead, no more attacking returns and no clean sheet, even losing a point because Liverpool’s leaky defence allowed Spurs to bring overcome the three-goal deficit.

That’s what could hold Alexander-Arnold back. The backline has one clean sheet from nine matches and has conceded the third-most big chances throughout the whole campaign.

However, at a time when Kieran Trippier (£6.1m) has stopped providing FPL points, a steady supply of assists shouldn’t be sneered at. Furthermore, although Alexander-Arnold has only once exceeded six points during his last eight outings, he’s also blanked just twice in his last dozen.

FPL notes: Liverpool's defence, Jota subbed, Chelsea awful

AN EVENTFUL JOTA CAMEO

Either through Free Hits or regular transfers, Diogo Jota‘s (£8.9m) ownership has shot up from 46,000 in Gameweek 31 to over 660,000 this time.

He received a knock last week that kept him out of this starting line-up but, in a 27-minute appearance, found time to almost get sent off before then scoring a dramatic stoppage-time winner.

His high boot to Oliver Skipp (£4.3m) only brought a booking – a decision that could have big FPL ramifications. Instead of finishing this double on negative points, Jota has four and will probably now start at home to Fulham.

That’s not to belittle the attacking returns of Cody Gakpo (£7.7m) and Luis Diaz (£7.8m). It’s more about the latter just returning from a big injury and Jurgen Klopp not having time to think about game time being distributed evenly. Liverpool need to win all remaining matches and Jota simply keeps scoring.

WAS IT WRONG TO DITCH KANE?

A lot of managers have recently sold Harry Kane (£11.4m) in order to afford Salah. Whilst the latter half of this transfer still looks justified, some will wish there’d been a different way to raise funds as Kane netted his 25th league goal of the season.

His current total of 225 FPL points is already the second-highest of his career, while he’ll only need to score at a rate of 4.5 points per match in his remaining four fixtures to set a new personal best.

He’s a reliable, elite FPL asset with returns in seven of his last eight outings. For all Spurs’ problems, Kane ain’t one of them.

Above: Since Gameweek 27, no player has more FPL points than Harry Kane

This fantastic match found a way to combine their previous two. Going 3-0 down after 15 minutes was a haunting echo of events at Newcastle United, yet bringing the game back to 3-3 repeated the comeback against Manchester United – until Jota pounced on Lucas Moura‘s (£5.8m) mistake.

What’s also interesting is the quiet renaissance of Son Heung-min (£11.5m), now with four goals in his last five league games. And he was one of two Spurs players to hit the Anfield woodwork.

Competition in the FPL midfield is tight but Son could be a superb differential for those chasing rank, ahead of upcoming matches against Crystal Palace (h), Brentford (h) and Leeds United (a).

SOLANKE BAGS A GOAL

It’s the same Leeds that just lost heavily at Bournemouth – they’ve now conceded at least four times in three of their last five matches.

The result almost confirms the Cherries’ survival after an epic run of six wins from nine. Dominic Solanke (£5.6m) may only be on six league goals but he’s played a big role in this magnificent form.

His budget-friendly FPL price helps managers switch to a 3-5-2 formation, with the versatility of knowing he can come in from the bench and be a solid starting option.



FPL Marc Broadcaster, writer and overthinker. Hoping that ‘differential potential’ will catch on.

71 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Heavy Cream
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    First!

    1. Heavy Cream
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I take my wins where I can get them at the moment

  2. FPL Daniel
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    When I see those xGI numbers as a Mac10 owner I feel fpl pain. I mean come on, convert something, some points would be nice

    1. Art Vandelay
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I couldn't agree more. I have been rocking Mac10 and March since my GW26 WC. I have just about got away without having Mitoma but it could have been so much better.

  3. Zenith UK
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    I have a royal benching headache in 36...

    1. Zenith UK
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Bench is looking like Kepa (NOT) | Burn (lee & BHA) | Estu (ars & new) & Andreas/Fodder

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 16 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Everyone will have that royal benching headache imo

      2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Pereira may be out for the season and I wouldn't back a Chelsea player against any team. Don't think Burn is a hard one tbh, I expect both Leeds and Brighton to score and similarly you'd likely be relying on Estupiñan for attacking returns

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      37 looks worse for me… already wishing I’d saved my BB!

      1. Mirror Man
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Where I'm from we say more wursor.

    3. Stamford B
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I’m trying to catch up in a mini league and everyone now has pretty much the same team. My only differential is my Jota to their Trents. Looking for alternatives just weakens your team and this has been going on since the beginning of the wildcard season circa gw26.
      It makes for a rather dull second half to the season and the only way I can think to remedy this is to get rid of the silly chips and go back to just the two wildcards that we once had.
      Let’s get a petition to FPL Towers going in the hope that sanity will prevail and thereby returning our beloved FPL to the game it once was.

      1. Zenith UK
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        It's one of those things where you have to take a risk away from the template, some high % owned players haven't returned in a while.

        Trippier - 6 games
        Gabriel - 6 games
        Mitoma - 3 games (excluding Wolves)
        Watkins - 3 games (including this GW)

        Sometimes you have to stay on players that people come away from such as Kane, Toney, White

        1. The Mentaculus
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Tbf when your prime differential is sticking with Kane while most sell, that does sound kind of dull

      2. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        I avoided the 26 WC primarily just to be a bit different, didn't really need to play the WC, whereas for many who played the WC then it was more of a strategy move rather than a necessity.

        By holding back it meant my team was different, I was set for GW32 and didn't need a Free Hit so again I had a slightly different team.

        WC33 and BB34 also means a slightly different team with Antonio, Jota and DDG & Alisson for the double on BB.

        I am sorted for GW36 with free transfers and have a FH for 37 to go a bit crazy with City, Utd, Brighton and even the odd Chelsea player ... for sure it will be a bit different than a non FH team.

        My point, it's been fun doing something different rather than following the general formula.

        1. Stamford B
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          How has your rank improved since then out of interest?

          1. Hotdogs for Tea
            • 10 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            GW25 725k
            GW29 875k
            Treaded water ...

            Now 330k with 12 players to go plus Haaland captain & Zouma

    4. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      What to do if you have all of
      Martinelli v.s Saka
      V.s
      Schär & Tripper

      1. Hy liverpool
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        I would risk it and play both attackers or both defenders..

    5. Feanor
      • 16 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I already got Estupinan in. Hopefully he comes thru the next game OK, or ideally for me, is rested.

      1. The Mentaculus
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        1. Zenith UK
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          I think he's saying he didn't have him for 34 and has brought him in already for 35.

    6. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Who to start between

      A Trippier (ARS)
      B Shaw (whu)

      1. Feanor
        • 16 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Trippier's last six games:

        2
        2
        1
        2
        2
        2

        1. Mirror Man
            2 years, 7 months ago

            11

            1. dunas_dog
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              You can add up -wow!

              1. Mirror Man
                  2 years, 7 months ago

                  Thanks for the support! Upvote locked in.

              2. Zenith UK
                • 9 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                In a game I play typing 11 in the game chat starts a taunt which laughs at your opponent. Bit how I feel about Trippier lately 😀

                1. Herger
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  2 years, 7 months ago

                  Age of empires?

            2. dunas_dog
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              But perhaps more attacking upside potential than Shaw now playing in central defence- you would expect both Arsenal and West Ham to score

            3. WALOR
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              He's a complete troll, don't know why anyone has him in their team (he's still in mine).
              2 returns since GW21 (2 A, 1 CS).
              And yet, every one of the top 10 overall in the world right now have him.
              "Essential"? - it's like we're all zombies.

          • Hy liverpool
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Trippier.

          • Gizzachance
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            B
            Tripp 1 cs in last 13

          • Tonyawesome69
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Don't understand why folks use points from previous GWs as an indicator for future points.

            1. Zenith UK
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              Do you know what form is?

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 7 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                What you saying points = form?

                1. Zenith UK
                  • 9 Years
                  2 years, 7 months ago

                  There is usually a correlation between the two, it's not a given, but it must be factored in. Otherwise we may as well all click "auto-fill" at the start of the season and just pray we win.

            2. JBG
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              Yeah I get what you're saying Tony, why judge Newcastle defenders for not keeping a CS the last 13 GWs. There's no indication off that continuing.

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 7 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                Come on, are saying 1/13 CS is sufficient data to conclude Newcastle won't keep a CS in the next game?

                1. JBG
                  • 7 Years
                  2 years, 7 months ago

                  No eyes test as well, teams are getting to good chances way easier against them, than before.

            3. Mirror Man
                2 years, 7 months ago

                Tony is getting a frostie reception here.

            4. Zenith UK
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              B easily. We'll have half an eye on Europe a few days later and would've played City a few days before as well. Players will be looking out for injuries. I reckon we get romped, which I'm fine with if we're resting players and get through to the final as I reckon we're safe now.

              1. Hazz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                Forgot you lot had the Europa League match sandwiched in there. Planned to play Shaw anyhow, but useful.

                Gotta hope points keep flowing with Bruno!

                1. Zenith UK
                  • 9 Years
                  2 years, 7 months ago

                  If we win the conference league and don't get relegated I'll take it. Not what I wanted at the start of the season but the EUCL title is the only thing that stops this being registered as a dreadful season.

          • Arteta
            • 10 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Never judge a DGW by the first half. Never.

            1. ZimZalabim
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              kdb end of last season comes to mind

              blank first game and 4 goals second game

              1. WVA
                • 9 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                ML rival triple captained him that week and overturned an 80 point lead I'd held all season

            2. The Final Boss
              • 8 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              True. Usually the second half brings points.. Gw 29 example this season. Jota kdb if fit can easily haul. Jota haul almost sure I guess.

            3. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 10 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              72 points so far ... hope it gets better 😉

            4. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
              • 10 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              Yep. Plenty of time for it to get even worse.

          • El Presidente
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            NEW & City are dead as FPL teams

            1. JBG
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              Why you say that? Because of ownership or?

          • Bobby Digital
            • 8 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Are you guys keeping Toney? He's on my bench for GW35 atm.

            1. Amartey Partey
              • 6 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              First on my bench but he could easily score against that Liverpool defence.

            2. tricpic
              • 16 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              Switching to Isak or Wilson, unsure which.

          • The Final Boss
            • 8 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            As a robbo owner, having a slight doubt he may get benched.. Was having a bad game last night..

            1. Bobby Crush
              • 11 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              he was very poor and could do with a rest

            2. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 10 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              So many players are getting a bit leggy ... understandable

          • rozzo
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Raya Kepa
            Tripper Mee Mings Botman Estupinan
            Salah Saka Odegaard Mitoma Martinelli
            Haaland Toney Watkins

            1ft
            1m itb

            A). Kepa to Steele
            B). Odegaard to Rashford
            C). Watkins to Isak
            D). Mee to Dalot
            E). Anything else

            1. Big Mike
              • 3 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              D

          • Gazzpfc
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            DDG
            Trent Stones Estupinian
            March Salah Grealish Rashford
            Haaland Jota Wilson

            Raya Mitoma Trippier Moreno

            Anything to change????

            Play Mitoma or March???

            Gw 35 did Watkins to Wilson

          • Atimis
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Some good advice needed here!

            Keep FT or sort GK or maybe Alvarez punt?

            Raya
            TAA/Tripp/Est
            Salah/Grealish/Rash/Mitoma
            Haaland/Watkins/Isak

            Kepa/March/Shaw/Botman

            1. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 10 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              You are sorted for GW36 doubles so would maybe look at easing in some more Utd & City.

              Bruno maybe some how? DDG ? Martial surely will get some minutes ?

              1. Atimis
                • 9 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                GK to DDG on the cards, unfortunately probably no funds for Bruno

            2. Bobby Crush
              • 11 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              Wait to see if KDB is injured.
              Alvarez is great, but only when he is starting.

              If your only worry is the GK, save. There are always things popping up during a GW with lots of gAmes

              1. Atimis
                • 9 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                Cheers, with 2FTs could swap Botman to Wilson

          • Zenith UK
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Crazy thing about that tweet in the article is they posted that before the end of the game. They didn't just equal the record they've smashed it. 23 goals conceded in a month... They're so going down.

            1. The Ilfordian
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              I fear that’s true. Not sure Leeds or Everton win another match based on form and fixtures

          • NJ MetroStars
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            anyone else starting iversen today or am I the only maniac?!?

            1. @FPL__Engineer
              • 5 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              On BB yes

          • Zenith UK
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            New post

          • Corgz Dark side of the Loon
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Guys would you move Jota on for free.
            A, Isak
            B, Wilson
            C, Alcarez