FPL notes: Why Shaw at centre-back may not be all bad

The Gameweek 34 post-mortem continues as we look back at the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from each game.

Here, we concentrate on Manchester United v Aston Villa.

All the numbers you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture after full-time in each game.

• READ MORE: Pep on De Bruyne + Alvarez, Wilson’s impact, Pereira’s injury
• READ MORE: Brighton rotation, Mac Allister, Palace pens
• READ MORE: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus points + statistics
• READ MORE: Sunday’s goals, assists, bonus points + statistics

“TIREDNESS IS A MINDSET”

With managed minutes a concern for a number of FPL assets at this busy time of the season, Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag is thankfully taking more of a Sean Dyche approach to rotation with his most influential players.

There were two changes for United against Aston Villa, with Antony (£7.3m) and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£4.3m) making way for Marcel Sabitzer (£4.7m) and Diogo Dalot (£4.7m).

Ten Hag mentioned “dividing the load” ahead of kick-off but also highlighted the tactical aspect of his alterations; playing Bruno Fernandes (£9.4m) at right wing was something he did against Aston Villa to great success in the EFL Cup win in November, so he may have simply wanted to repeat that experiment at Antony’s expense on Sunday.

You wonder if it’s a tactic ten Hag might repeat on Thursday against Brighton and Hove Albion, to combat the Seagulls’ play-out-from-the-back approach and to exploit space vacated by the marauding Pervis Estupinan (£4.8m).

“We have a lot of games so we have to rotate. So now and then to divide the load of the players.” – Erik ten Hag before kick-off, speaking to the BBC

“We have to divide the load of the players, that’s one, also from a tactical perspective, you have a thought and you have a plan, and that’s why the changes.

“He [Antony] has played so much so we have to protect him as well. Also, from a tactical point of view, I think it’s a good choice to do it this way.” – Erik ten Hag before kick-off, speaking to MUTV

Ten Hag otherwise went as full strength as he could go, less than 72 hours after that pulsating draw against Tottenham Hotspur, and didn’t make any substitutions till the final 15 minutes.

Dychean “mindset” quotes followed after full-time:

“Tiredness is only in your head – it’s a mindset. When you think you are tired, you are tired. So don’t think about it. We have to perform because, in May, you can’t think you are tired because the finish is almost there. You have to be ready and prepared for every game – you need the energy and it’s a responsibility the team and the players have to take.

“It’s about mentality and character and I think that is what we have seen today. First, good football and then, in the second half, we showed character, we were determined and passionate.” – Erik ten Hag

RASHFORD OFF-DAY

After weeks of points-dodging, Fernandes finally delivered the double-digit score that he’d been threatening.

The midfielder tucked away a rebound from Marcus Rashford‘s (£7.2m) saved effort for the only goal at Old Trafford, surprisingly just his 14th attacking return of 2022/23.

“It was another great game from Bruno. The plan from a tactical perspective was to play him from the right to get runs behind and to pass behind. And he did that very well with Rashy and Sabitzer. And so I think our plan worked very well.

“He’s a very good presser, he understands the moment when to close down, when to bring the opponent in trouble. He knows also when to run back, to track back, and to close passing lines to our opponents. So even if our press gets beat, he knows when to get back and then, of course, he can play in between the lines and give the pass or get behind the lines himself. So he has so many skills and it’s a pleasure to work with players like him.” – Erik ten Hag

Rashford was again deployed through the middle as Anthony Martial (£6.3m) ambled through yet another second-half substitute appearance.

United’s leading scorer had an off-day of his own in all honesty but even when below par he still gets ample opportunities to rack up the points, missing two excellent openings (one which resulted in Fernandes’ goal) and providing the touch that Marcel Sabitzer (£4.7m) fired over from close range.

SHAW AT CENTRE-HALF

Aston Villa’s 20-game scoring run came to an end at Old Trafford, a testament to United’s ongoing defensive strength in the Casemiro (£4.9m) era but also a huge credit to the makeshift centre-half pairing of Luke Shaw (£5.1m) and Victor Lindelof (£4.1m).

Openings were scarce for the free-scoring Villans, with the off-the-line double-chance you may have seen on highlight reels actually pulled back for offside.

Unai Emery’s troops finished on 0.56 expected goals (xG), their lowest tally in 12 matches, with Alex Moreno (£4.5m) spurning the stand-out opportunity in the first half.

There’ll no doubt have been titters when Lindelof made the Scout Picks ‘bus team’ last week but with Raphael Varane (£4.8m) and Lisandro Martinez (£4.4m) either potentially or definitely ruled out for the season and Harry Maguire (£4.7m) doing his best to remain fifth-choice stopper, the Swede remains an in-form, cut-price route into a United defence that have kept more clean sheets (15) than any other side in 2022/23.

“Victor is playing brilliantly, in and out of possession, defending in control but then in building up also he’s composed, with good positioning. Shaw likes to play centre-half – he’s a full-back but he’s doing very well inside. You need co-operation because a back four with the midfield is always about communication, but they play very well together and we’re happy with that. But always also I have to say it’s about the whole team. They are so determined and passionate to win games in attack but also in defence, and that’s what you need if you want to be successful.” – Erik ten Hag

Shaw owners will no doubt be bemoaning his lack of attacking threat now that he’s at centre-back but that’s now six bonus points he has delivered while playing at centre-half against Villa, Forest and Wolves since the World Cup.

He also delivered maximum bonus after starting at centre-back against Leeds United in Gameweek 34 but was later moved to left-back, from where he provided his crucial assist.

Above: Five of Luke Shaw’s seven highest baseline bonus points (BBPS) scores of 2022/23 have been recorded when he has started at centre-back (highlighted in yellow). He has only started six games at centre-half all season.

It’s not just the extra tackles and passes that help boost his bonus potential while at centre-half but also the fact that he is getting tackled less himself (spending far less time dribbling up the left flank), something that is a negative on the Bonus Points System (BPS).

Indeed, his centre-half appearances in Gameweeks 33 and 34 were the first time that he hasn’t been marked down for any BBPS all season.

(SLIGHTLY) EASIER TESTS AHEAD FOR WATKINS?

That’s now three successive blanks for Ollie Watkins (£7.6m), who finished Gameweek 34 without a shot or penalty box touch to his name for the first time since a substitute appearance in Gameweek 20 – although had he not slipped in the incident that led to Moreno’s aforementioned effort, he would have had a three-yard tap-in.

The fixture schedule remains tough for Villa, with Watkins already the most-sold asset of Gameweek 35, but if there is a glimmer of hope it’s that his next three opponents have just conceded a combined 13 goals in Gameweek 34:

Wolves at Molineux are generally a different proposition than on the road, of course, while Watkins will be competing with ‘doublers’ for our investment in Gameweeks 36 and 37.