Forwards are a big talking point in the FPL community right now, including for FPL Family‘s Sam.
With two forward problems that she is unhappy with, Sam debates the merits of taking a -4 to deal with both.
It feels like everyone around me is talking about hitting that Wildcard button. I’m here, wondering if I am being too stubborn. Looking at my team, there are only really four changes I want to make. Dean Henderson (£4.5m) and Valentin Barco (£4.0m) are problems for another day (David Raya (£5.5m) and Jacob Greaves (£4.0m): I am looking longingly at you!).
However, Alexander Isak (£8.4m) and Rodrigo Muniz (£6.0m) are pressing issues. Maybe Isak could get a stay of execution if he is ruled fit to play by Eddie Howe after his eye injury last week but he’s definitely on borrowed time. Muniz also played 95 minutes in the League Cup before being withdrawn through injury. Ideally, I would replace them both this week.
My original plan was to bring in Yoane Wissa (£6.1m). However, manager Thomas Frank has ruled the forward out for two months after he picked up an injury in Gameweek 4. Obviously, this means that I will need to rethink my plans – and invest in Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m) as my Brentford attacking asset from Gameweek 6.
When picking two forwards, it’s not just a question of selecting my favourite two replacements. Whilst I can afford upgrades on both players, as I have money in the bank, I am not sure if I want to. Upgrading both assets would rule out picking Raya from Gameweek 6 onwards as I wouldn’t be able to afford the extra £1.0m on top of Henderson.
Game of Strategy
This is where FPL becomes a real strategy game.
I could go in for the best team possible for Gameweek 5. But know that it rules me out of a player I really want from Gameweek 6 onwards. Or I could compromise slightly on the picks this week – they will still be good, just not both first choices – and save the money for next week. Or, finally, go for it this week and then Wildcard next. I think I have already ruled out the last option.
If I replace both Isak and Muniz this week, there will only be two changes I want to make left on a Gameweek 6 Wildcard (barring injuries) – and therefore that’s not a worthwhile use of the chip.
On that basis, I need to weigh up the forward options and decide who comes in for the longer term. Obviously, this whole article will only be discussing forwards outside of Erling Haaland (£15.2m). The Norwegian is a lock and is going nowhere!
Pay for premium?
Let’s for the sake of this article assume that Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) is ok after his Champions League exploits. At the end of the match, Watkins was pictured with ice on his ankle but Unai Emery has suggested he’s fine.
The only way I can afford Watkins is to sell Isak. Annoyingly, I am £0.1m short of doing Muniz up to the Villa forward. Watkins bagged a brace in Gameweek 4 and was a little unlucky not to get his hat-trick as Everton once again collapsed. In the opening three weeks of the season, Watkins averaged just 60.33 minutes per match. However, in Gameweek 4, the forward played 82 minutes. Of course, there is some risk of rotation around the Champions League but the fact that Jhon Duran (£5.5m) came on alongside Watkins rather than replacing him is a cause of relief.
Watkins is finding form at the right time for an attractive run of fixtures. He currently ranks fourth among forwards for shots on goal, with 10. He is also tied first with Haaland for big chances, with eight. In addition, Aston Villa have a really nice run of fixtures – starting with Wolves at home this weekend:
If Isak is ruled fit by Howe, then there is another conversation. The Swede has an attractive fixture against a Fulham side who have failed to keep a clean sheet all season. The Newcastle frontman has only previously played 109 Premier League minutes against Fulham, scoring once in that time. With Callum Wilson (£6.9m) still out through injury, Isak could himself be a good pick for the weekend.
Regardless, I am likely to want to move Isak to Watkins or Kai Havertz (£8.1m) ahead of Gameweek 6. Newcastle face Manchester City in Gameweek 6 and therefore I am likely to jump on to the good fixtures for Villa and Arsenal at that point anyway.
Havertz v Watkins
This week, in a choice between the two, the easy winner for me is Watkins. Ahead of Gameweek 6, I am less sure.
The one issue with Havertz is that it would rule out Raya as I already own Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) and William Saliba (£6.0m). The Arsenal defensive double-up is very attractive to me from Gameweek 6 onwards.
However, the benefit of waiting a week to do this is if Havertz performs against City, then I could look at a Mark Flekken (£4.5m) or Arijanet Muric (£4.4m) between the sticks instead.
Do you need to splash the cash?
However, whilst both Watkins and Havertz are attractive, there are several cheaper forwards who are beginning to put their hands up for selection.
Tom Freeman has already touched on a couple of the below in his Wissa/Muniz replacements article but I’ll share my own thoughts here too.
Joao Pedro and Danny Welbeck
Brighton started the season with a bang and both Joao Pedro (£5.7m) and Danny Welbeck (£5.7m) have rightly earned themselves two price rises as a result of their performances. Pedro missed Gameweek 4 through a minor injury picked up on international duty with Brazil. In terms of budget enablers, these two look like great options.
Welbeck has registered 25 points so far this season and is currently the third-highest-scoring forward in the game. He has also had 10 attempts on goal so far; of these, eight have come from inside the box. Pedro has had five. Both Brighton forwards have returned two goals a piece. Welbeck has also created four chances, registering an assist from one of them, with Joao Pedro creating three.
Of the two Brighton players, Welbeck would be my preference. However, their fixtures are a little mixed over the next few weeks and this puts me off investing.
Liam Delap
Liam Delap (£5.5m) is one of my favourites of my shortlisted players. He has had five goal attempts so far, with only Omari Hutchinson (£5.4m) having had more at Ipswich (six). Delap has also had more big chances than any other Ipswich player and has created three chances – which is only bettered by Leif Davis (£4.5m) who has created four. In addition, the striker is also top for xG at Ipswich.
In Gameweek 5, Delap and Ipswich face Southampton, who have conceded eight goals this season – only Everton and Wolves have shipped more. They have also allowed 26 attempts on target, the second-highest tally. The Saints’ 18 big chances conceded is also the most in the league. These are all underlying stats I think Delap could exploit. However, it is not just Gameweek 5 that Delap looks good for. The Ipswich fixtures look nice for an extended run. They are top of the fixture ticker from now through Gameweek 17.
Jamie Vardy
No, I haven’t rewound the clock to the 2015/16 season. Yes, I know that Jamie Vardy (£5.6m) will turn 38 in January. However, he is in good form. Vardy has already scored two goals this season and has picked up four bonus points. He has managed this dispute only having three attempts on goal. Clearly, he is currently being very clinical – but how long can he keep this up?
Vardy as a third forward option, who I don’t need to play every week, could be fun. However, for £0.1m more, I would prefer Welbeck. I would even rather save the £0.1m and go for Delap.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Everton are poor. Even with what on paper looks like a nice run of fixtures, I don’t trust them.
Yes, I hear all the “Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m) and Dwight McNeil (£5.5m) are playing well” comments. However, as a forward, there are only so many times you can give your team a two-goal lead only to have it whittled away to a defeat because of the defensive weaknesses. Losing back-to-back games in the Premier League 3-2 when you were winning 2-0 has an impact on team morale. As does going out to relegation rivals Southampton in the League Cup.
Whilst Calvert-Lewin will likely score goals in the coming weeks, I will probably avoid all Everton assets until we see improvements in team performance. That is a shame when you look at their fixtures.
Dominic Solanke
Yes, Spurs bias etc. I hear you. We lacked creativity badly in the north London derby but Dominic Solanke (£7.5m) played well. He was aggressive, created opportunities from nothing and was positive.
Obviously, I would have liked to have seen Solanke return before I invested. I had him for Gameweek 1 and then lost him to injury.
But Solanke is a tried and tested Premier League striker, and those upcoming Spurs fixtures have quietly gone under the radar.
My plans
If Isak is fit, he will stay for this week. Whatever happens, Muniz will be sold. My preferred pick for Gameweek 5 is Delap but I think I prefer Solanke as a long-term pick, so I might opt to jump ahead of the bandwagon on Spurs’ striker.
This would leave me £0.2m short of doing Henderson to Raya in Gameweek 6. That would present me with two options:
- Downgrade Isak and get Raya in
- Get Havertz up front and then Flekken or Muric between the sticks
Either way, doing the Solanke move in Gameweek 5 almost locks in a -4 ahead of Gameweek 6.
Ideally, I think my preferred frontline is Watkins and Solanke alongside Haaland.
However, I am toying with the idea of Delap and Solanke. With the extra budget, I can then have Raya in goal and upgrade Harry Winks (£4.5m) to Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m). At that stage – with the exception of the gaping hole that is Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) – my team would look pretty future-proof through until Gameweek 12/13/14 or even beyond.
