Feature – Risk vs Reward
Filed under: Feature - Posted by: Chris Glover
Not all Fantasy points are created equal. While we obviously want to maximise the total returns gained over the course of the season, on an individual level we also need to account for the cost of those points and the certainty with which they can be projected.
Cost is fairly easy to measure by looking at points divided by millions of pounds spent. Risk, however, is more tricky but will be defined here as an inconsistent player. For example, consider the two players below:
| Gameweek 1 | Gameweek 2 | Gameweek 3 | Gameweek 4 | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5.25 |
| Player B | 10 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5.25 |
Both players give you the same total points but Player B’s erratic production is much harder to anticipate and can have a negative impact for a variety of reasons:
Transfer targets become difficult to predict, as you don’t know if Player B is a legitimate Fantasy option or merely someone who had a couple of standout games. It’s much more likely that Player A will be able to maintain his production going forward.
Squad players become trickier to rotate in your first XI, as you’re unable to predict with any certainty just what they might contribute that Gameweek. If you play a player week in, week out, this isn’t an issue, but if you are looking to rotate a player, consistency can be a valuable asset.
Inconsistent players are far more difficult to manage when it comes to the captain’s armband, someone like Player B could explode or flop in any given Gameweek. Captain him every week and this is not a concern but if, like most Fantasy managers, you change your captain on a regular basis, this unpredictability just increases the risk involved.
This data can only be used alongside other factors as it is (a) retrospective rather than predictive and (b) it isn’t necessarily a good idea to rid yourself of all risk in your side as this will also limit potential.
That said, we can attempt to identify comparable players who might bring equally good production potential for less risk, and thus represent a better use of your team’s valuable funds.
Before we start, a note about the charts included in this article. They plot a players average (mean) Gameweek score, against the standard deviation of those scores – eg: the level of rise and fall week by week, as a representation of the “risk” involved with a player. The further a player appears to the right of the X axis (bottom horizontal axis) of the chart, the greater the deviation or risk involved. The further the player appears up the Y axis (left vertical axis) – the greater their average Gameweek score. Ultimately, we’re looking for players with strong Gameweek scores, with as low a risk factor as possible – these players give strong returns but, crucially, are also consistent.
Let’s begin by looking at the forwards…
We can immediately see that in general, higher reward is accompanied by higher risk. This stands to reason – the top players have the ability to score double digit points in any given Gameweek, and thus have further to fall when things don’t go their way. However, there are a couple of match-ups where the ‘risk’ involved could be deciding factor:
Sergio Aguero vs Wayne Rooney – The Manchester rivals have been tough to distinguish this year. Both have averaged around six points per game, though Rooney has edged ahead in the past fortnight in terms of points per week thanks to a couple of big performances.
The popular perception is that Rooney brings a level of consistency matched by few but, in fact, his points total has been boosted by a handful of huge performances, including back-to-back hat tricks in Gameweeks three and four. That in itself isn’t a big problem but the fact that these displays have come against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal made it likelier that Rooney wasn’t given the captain’s armband by his owners on those occasions.
Starting with Blackburn at home this weekend, Man City have the slightly more favourable fixtures in the short-term, and with Aguero consistently chipping in with good returns, he might just be the wiser choice right now.
Emmanuel Adebayor and Demba Ba vs. Elite forwards – there is a strong argument based on the above data, to plug both Adebayor and Ba into your lineup, using the funds saved to invest in midfield (where cheaper, consistent talent has been very hard to find). Both mid-price strikers have managed to deliver great consistency to match their high returns, as opposed to other flash-in-the-pans assets whose production has been erratic at best (we’re looking at you, Yakubu). Both Tottenham and Newcastle have a strong set of fixtures on the horizon, so while it isn’t controversial to suggest this pair is worth owning, there’s an argument to suggest that they can be owned instead of Rooney and Aguero, rather than alongside them.
Daniel Sturridge vs Edin Dzeko – Sturridge started the season on the sidelines and a lack of stand-out individual performances have really kept him out of the Fantasy headlines. His ownership has crept up into double digits but that level is still below what one would expect for a player with Sturridge’s risk/reward profile. He has found the net in eight different games, not far behind Rooney, Aguero and Ba (10) but a lack of substantial returns has suppressed his overall points total, and thus the interest of Fantasy managers. It goes without saying that Chelsea, and hence Sturridge, lack the upside of the two Manchester teams but if you’re looking to save some cash up top, or to differentiate from the widely-held Ba, Sturridge brings consistent returns, not often found for a player in his price range.
Steven Fletcher vs All other sub-7.0m forwards– the Wolves front man gained some attention during his solid run of form a few weeks back, but the above chart shows he may still be a touch undervalued. Yakubu and Zamora have both been more fancied Fantasy assets at some point this year but they carry much more risk than Fletcher, who has simply shown up and delivered close to five points per game at an almost unmatched level. Zamora may have a slightly higher upside but, if you’re a position to be rotating your third forward, Fletcher’s consistency makes him a very desirable option.
Steve Morison vs Danny Graham and Grant Holt – Morison has only delivered points on a league average basis, so this isn’t going to be the most exciting decision you make for your team. However, the attributes for a good third forward (who will often find himself benched) must include a level of consistency and Morison enjoys an advantage in that area, ahead of the group of comparable four-point-players. He’s found himself benched in the last two weeks and those concerns must obviously be addressed first, but if you believe he can get back into the Norwich lineup, he remains one of the best budget forwards to own.
You can immediately see the correlation is stronger among midfielders with fewer outliers to highlight. There are however, a couple of familiar names that are worth highlighting:
David Silva vs. Everyone else – Okay, admittedly, highlighting the second-top scoring midfielder around, owned by 44% of FPL managers isn’t going to win any awards for investigative journalism. However, idle wildcards are the devil’s tools and with Gareth Bale and Clint Dempsey continuing to impress, there may be many managers tempted to turn their collective backs on the Spanish maestro.
While looking for the next big thing is obviously a sound idea, the above data merely lends further weight to the fact that Silva is simply too good to drop. Bale has the edge on him in terms of pure point production per game but he has been significantly more unpredictable, raising the question as to whether Bale’s form will continue for the remainder of the season.
Silva, on the other hand, has failed to score or assist a goal in back-to-back starts just twice all season. When spending 10.0 plus, the security of knowing what you’re getting for your money is a huge benefit, especially if that stability is not accompanied by a downgrade in overall production. Assuming most Fantasy managers reading this already own Silva, this may be one area where apathy wins out . Doing nothing might just be the way to go with Silva – that transfer itch might be better scratched elsewhere.
Theo Walcott vs Mid range midfielders – Consistency isn’t the first word you associate with the frustrating Walcott but, in Fantasy terms at least, he has been exactly that this season. The winger chipped in with nine games of between five and nine points compared to fourteen disappointing outings, which doesn’t sound great in a vacuum but actually compares favourably to several more fancied options: Stephane Sessegnon (9 vs 14), Nani (8 vs 14) and Dempsey (8 vs 13). The high scores have been limited, which has really kept Walcott out of Fantasy managers’ minds and thus he represents a good buying opportunity given his high floor and mid-range ceiling. Having been dropped for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the FA Cup trip to Sunderland last weekend, however, Walcott’s starts will need to be monitored, with a first-team starting place perhaps under question for the first time this season.
Consistency of defensive points is always going to be tied more to a player’s team than his own ability, so the analysis here is less telling, but a couple of names still pop up which deserve a quick mention:
Kyle Walker vs Benoit Assou-Ekotto – With a couple of big performances over the past six weeks, Assou-Ekotto has leapt to the top of the defensive points charts, though the above would suggest that team-mate Walker represents better value. Aside from the fact he is slightly cheaper and owned by less than half as many Fantasy managers, Walker has also delivered slightly better per-game returns on a much more consistent basis. Throw in Walker’s comparable, or marginally better, performance stats (including shots on goal and key passes) and you have a clear cut differential candidate who should remain on the radar.
Vincent Kompany vs Thomas Vermaelen – Vermaelen has rarely been a hot Fantasy property this term, but his positioning in our chart illustrates a worthy point of note. Defensive goalscorers obviously carry significant potential but the unpredictability of those returns can often limit a player’s value. If the goals have come in games where logic suggests the player should have been benched in our Fantasy lineups, they may have been wasted, but would have still boosted a player in the overall scoring charts.
Vermaelen has earned a large portion of his points from offensive production so, unless you are willing to play him every week, he looks way too unpredictable to justify his decent returns when compared with someone like Kompany, whose production has been much flatter, with City’s defensive returns his bread and butter.
About The Author
“Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice.”
Chris Glover @plfantasy
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Recent Comments
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Nice, be sure to go for a tube ride and check out the markets. » -
when did he play for Spurs? Or Stoke? » -
might join you http://img.pandawhale.com/post-19850-Open-case-of-beer-like-a-boss-r165.gif » -
Your a footballer? Why didnt you say? Could have put you in my fpl team this year! »
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Correct » -
Saint Petes ! » -
Trying to think of United, Chelsea or Arsenal players that played for Stoke and Spurs. » -
Niiiiiiice I'm off for a week from today as well...Good times :cool: » -
Must be Gujohnsen! » -
Much better question, Eidur Gudjohnson »
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Rafa Benitez talks up the role that Frank Lampard can play in his Chelsea revolution
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February 24 at 11:40 am
Dirty_Harry says:
I’m not buying this Silva is a must malarky. I had silva from day one, then when he reached 45%ish ownership I dropped him. Since then I’ve done nothing but rise in rankings. From 1.2M to under 100k. 18 out of 20 green arrows. =
I think for 10M to get 5-6 points every week is just not good enough. I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper.
The facty that he has so high ownership means when he scores it doen’t really make a difference to ranking cuase most pople have him, but when he doesn’t score, thats 10M that I’ve used elsewhere to get more points. Proff is in the rankings.
February 24 at 11:42 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
i’m around the 10k mark and have had silva for most of the season
you can use statistics to prove anything
89.9% of people know that
February 24 at 11:44 am
Dirty_Harry says:
Yeah, ok, but I’m pretty sure Silva is the reason I’ve gone up in rankings. Saying that, I think YAAY’s return will mean more points for Silva
Oh, did you start high? I diodn’t have rooney captain for teh first 3 weeks, so started from teh 1.4m mark to get to below 100k
February 24 at 11:47 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
1.3 mil first week but then shot up to 40k the next week and have spent most of the time in the top 100k and risen steadily
February 24 at 11:49 am
ChristIna says:
If Silva’s 5-6 pts are the reason for you not having him, then I doubt not having his 5-6 pointers are the reason you went up the rankings. Face it you had a shite start to the season and it did not take much to move up the rankings.
Cutting down on the hits, good (c) choices and BOOM.
February 24 at 11:50 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
i don’t want to smash your back door in any more
February 24 at 11:51 am
ChristIna says:
huh?
February 24 at 11:57 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
http://www.fantasyfootballscou.....nt-2760151
February 24 at 11:43 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
Proff is in the pudding
February 24 at 12:02 pm
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
You cook tutors?
February 24 at 11:45 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
Walters? lol.
February 24 at 11:50 am
ChristIna says:
Yeah, I saw that.
February 24 at 11:49 am
Mac says:
When he scores and you don’t have him you miss out by however much he scores.
If he’s owned by a greater number of people it affects your ranking more.
If he goes balistic and scores 18 points against Blackburn that will affect your ranking more than if Mata or VdV or Young does.
If you think Silva will score the best pick Silva – ignore the ownership.
February 24 at 11:53 am
1966 was a great year for English football - Eric was born says:
It’s pretty easy to get green arrows when you’re starting from 1.2m, though.
February 24 at 11:55 am
Bendy Busdriver says:
+1
February 24 at 1:27 pm
Connster says:
“I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper.”
This is only true since Jan ’12 at the earliest, this wasnt true at the start of the season when Silva was being consistent….
Thats the point!
did you have sess, demps and valencia back then…. i doubt it
February 24 at 11:40 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
pretty epic article
i don’t recognise the guy who wrote it though?
February 24 at 11:44 am
King Nil Miss✩ says:
You should visit his blog, pretty good stuff!
February 24 at 11:46 am
Mezz says:
He’s a famous actor.
February 24 at 11:48 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
i assume you are a radiohead fan? are you in the uk? are you as frustrated as me by the lack of gigs here??
February 24 at 11:54 am
Mezz says:
Patience DD. They’re gonna play the UK when they’re at their peak. Hopefully a few Irish dates, so I can spoil myself.
February 24 at 11:58 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
at their peak?!
February 24 at 11:59 am
Mezz says:
On the tour. They’ll be super tight when they hit the UK.
February 24 at 12:01 pm
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
better not be some enormo-venues
February 24 at 11:40 am
Sheep Flavour says:
Any Rooney news? Starting?
February 24 at 11:41 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
wrapping up the work week. time for fantasy CL madness!!! time for the derby!!!!
COYS!!!
February 24 at 11:42 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
i want you to nail those gooners
February 24 at 1:30 pm
Connster says:
COYS…
February 24 at 11:41 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
can anyone tell me if cabaye is fit to play this week, just looking for short term mid and he looks best option, but haven’t followed him to know why he missed last three games
February 24 at 11:48 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
anyone
February 24 at 11:50 am
Mezz says:
He’s back…he was suspended for 3 games.
February 24 at 11:54 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
ty
February 24 at 11:49 am
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
I think he was banned after a red card … check this:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?authkey=CO-0i6wI&key=0AgCyIw51ewDOdEpmUWVDTW9DQ1NYcU5sdFBGTmFFV0E&hl=en&authkey=CO-0i6wI#gid=4
February 24 at 11:54 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
ty also
February 24 at 11:59 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
nice work, your own?
February 24 at 11:51 am
Demba says:
Yeah he will start. He’s been suspended the last 3 games – at home to a managerless wolves he looks a good choice.
February 24 at 11:53 am
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
they have a manager!
February 24 at 11:55 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
the wolves bit is good enough for me
February 24 at 11:54 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
ty once more
February 24 at 11:43 am
goonerbyron says:
Who to start this week out of Sigurdsson and McClean??
February 24 at 11:46 am
Mezz says:
McClean
February 24 at 11:49 am
Bookaholic says:
mclean if u dont have sess
siggy if u have sess.
btw if u have sess and mclean, play mclean over sess.
February 24 at 11:55 am
1966 was a great year for English football - Eric was born says:
Nah, play Sess over McClean if you have both.
February 24 at 11:47 am
div says:
Need to transfer Lidegaard and have 1.3 in the bank, 0.9 of which will be used for Rooney (depending he doesn’t rise until Saturday night.
Vorm is my other keeper, so Lindegaard >
1. Schwarzer (rotates good, but already have Senderos)
2. Mignolet (not great rotation but cheap and have no defence cover)
3. Sorensen (rotation risk and have no defence cover)
4. Other.
February 24 at 11:50 am
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
mig, more likely to get CS, forget rotation
February 24 at 11:51 am
div says:
Cheers for that, might just get him…
February 24 at 11:47 am
androo8 says:
4 point hit, 2 transfers,
Current Team:
Mig
Richards Raylor Kelly
Silva Bale Sess McClean
RVP Bent Fletcher
Subs: Sinclair, Shawcross, Williams.
Fletch > Ba (C) obvs.
5.3 with Sinclair making way
I’m thinking Siggy, Cleverley, Scholesy or am open to any other suggestions?
February 24 at 11:51 am
Bookaholic says:
Siggy is the best option. And bent?? Don’t see among the goals this week.
February 24 at 11:57 am
androo8 says:
Against Wigan? They’re bottom of the league for a reason, IMO I think he’ll bag, benching McClean pains me tho…lost 9 points last GW through that call.
February 24 at 11:50 am
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
Group F? Lets be having you!
Europa League Group F Match day 1 Preview
; Zamora, Aguero, Van Persie
Well, here we have six-season veteran King Eric (5,805), an assiduous poster if ever there was, joined by Microcuts, Drinking Red Bull and the popular, if sarcastic, SSK Ginkvan, whose beautiful old grav I hope we will be seeing again soon! A very strong pool! Perhaps Cantona’s Crew will justify the arrogant cut of their collars, or be stampeded and creased by Kewell Runnings, both chased very hard by R-U-N-N-O-F-T. It will take all the cunning, skills and dirty tricks of Mutant Ninja Skrtels to upset this applecart!
Slovan Bratislava (SSK Ginkvan) vs Athletic (Microcuts)
A difficult match to call – the Artist vs the Athlete – both have Taiwo, and similar midfields.
Injury / Team News:
Slovan Bratislava – Already used his free transfer – has Valencia gone, or did he give Cahill the push? Evidence of a certain amount of Bandwagon hopping here.
Athletic – Certain amount of panic evident here! Two transfers already made for a four point hit, making it four in a row! No injuries, apparently, although Richards may be doubtful.
Predicted Line Ups
Slovan Bratislava: Krul; Vermaelen, Richards, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Sessegnon; Zamora, Graham, van Persie
Athletic: Vorm; Richards, Santon, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Walters; Aguero, Ba, van Persie
Match Verdict – Away win – forwards too strong.
PSG (King Eric) vs Salzburg (Drinking Red Bull)
Can Drinking Red Bull wipe the sneer off King Eric’s face?. Both have minor problems to solve, but I think experience and home advantage will turn this in King Eric’s favour
Injury / Team News
PSG – Two free transfers available – although as he has used only 19, they may not be necessary!
Salzburg: After a huge leap of nearly a million places, game weeks 8 to18, R-U-N-N-O-F-T has tripped. Used his free transfer – did Valencia go?
Predicted Line Ups
PSG: Schwarzer; Kompany, Evans, Santon; Dempsey, Bale, Silva, Sigurdsson; Ba, Dzeko, van Persie
Salzburg: Sorenson; Richards, Santon, Rangel; Bale, Dempsey, Ben Arfa,
Match Verdict – Home win
February 24 at 11:52 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Awesome Work Doos.
I wonder who will do it for Group C.
February 24 at 11:54 am
Team Hayemaker says:
these long posts about some random competetion are starting get annoying.
February 24 at 11:57 am
1966 was a great year for English football - Eric was born says:
You don’t have to read them.
February 24 at 11:59 am
Team Hayemaker says:
i dont read there crap, but they are bloody hard to ignore considering the length of them.
February 24 at 12:01 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
OK let’s give you some nice short RMT’s. Oh wait, 10000 of them.
February 24 at 12:02 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
*their
*this
*that
February 24 at 12:04 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
u can buy a mouse with little wheel to scroll quicker, modern technology is amazing
February 24 at 12:05 pm
Team Hayemaker says:
shut up you tit
February 24 at 12:11 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
you will find i am none of the below so you are wrong again
tit[tit] Origin tit1 /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
noun
1. a titmouse.
2. any of various other small birds.
3. Archaic . a girl or young woman; hussy.
4. Archaic . a small or poor horse; nag.
Explore the Visual Thesaurus »Related Words for : tit
bosom, breast, knocker, titmouse
View more related words »
Dictionary.com Unabridgedtit2 /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
noun
1. a teat.
2. Slang: Vulgar . a breast
February 24 at 12:13 pm
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
i always thought you WERE a hussy?
February 24 at 12:17 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
damn, and i thought i got away with it, oh gaymaker you are right i am a tit
February 24 at 11:55 am
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
Not me! I have writer’s cramp, writer’s block – anything you like!
I may well do three more next round, if you like … 
February 24 at 11:56 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
I would have done it myself but my exams are approaching.
February 24 at 12:05 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
exams, get your priorities in order man, where will exams get you nowdays
February 24 at 11:57 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
yes you. finish the job you started. all groups each week
February 24 at 11:58 am
1966 was a great year for English football - Eric was born says:
No good deed goes unpunished, eh Doos
February 24 at 11:59 am
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
I never promised you a rose garden …
February 24 at 12:02 pm
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
but you still smell as sweet
February 24 at 12:02 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
February 24 at 12:07 pm
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
never
February 24 at 12:09 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
You may be awful – but I like you!!!
February 24 at 12:10 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
February 24 at 11:53 am
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
anyone else temped by a Rooney and Welbeck double up from GW28?
Am looking for a decent sub 6.5 million replacement for the Gerbil. Yak is inconsistent (though he is still an option), my main rival has Fletcher (who is injury prone) Morison seems to have lost his place. That leaves Holt, Graham and Welbeck as my other options.
February 24 at 11:54 am
Sheep Flavour says:
With Rooney a doubt…DW a shout for a start Sat?
February 24 at 11:55 am
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
Welbeck will start with or without Rooney, he is first choice now.
February 24 at 11:56 am
Loooser says:
first choice? Even if Rooney fit and ready?
February 24 at 11:59 am
Sheep Flavour says:
And with Han scoring yesterday can we really call Wellbeck first choice?
February 24 at 12:01 pm
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
well wait and see who starts on Sat (as I think Rooney will) but even with Hernandez fit, Welbeck has been starting regularly in the PL.. Trust me I’m an OT Season Ticket holder, Welbeck is first choice.
February 24 at 11:59 am
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
yup Rooney and Welbeck is the first choice front 2 now. Hernandez is back in his role as super-sub.
February 24 at 12:01 pm
Mac says:
Rubbish – complete codswallop.
Stop presenting this as some sort of gospel fact when it patently isn’t.
Hernandez will start some games, Welbeck will start some games and quite possibly Berbatov will start some games. Even if Welbeck starts more than Hernandez it doesn’t make him first choice.
February 24 at 12:03 pm
Mac says:
Actually I’m confusing the terms first choice with nailed on.
I tend to use two interchangeably – if you are suggesting that Welbeck is nailed on for the rest of the season (providing he’s fit) then you are wrong. If you are suggesting that he will start more than Hernandez – you may be right.
February 24 at 12:06 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
Well, I hope he bloody well starts the next two, and scores a few!!!
February 24 at 12:08 pm
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
do you own him Doos?
See my post above
February 24 at 12:10 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
I do, I do, I do, I do …
February 24 at 12:07 pm
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
it is the 2nd of those 2, Like I said I’m at OT most weeks and so I understand Fergie’s rotation policy better than most (this is why Rooney, Evans and Evra are the best United options IMO as they are nailed on. (and even if Evans isn’t he’s cheap enough not to worry.)
February 24 at 12:05 pm
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
Hernandez has started 5 games whilst Welbeck has been fit, and 3 of those he played with him.
February 24 at 12:07 pm
mArvin says:
Couple of weeks ago Fergie admitted it was a mistake not starting Hernandez against Arsenal… Think Rooney is the only one nailed on up front…
February 24 at 12:07 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
Real question is which proportion of matches has Welbeck started when he’s fit?
February 24 at 12:10 pm
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
he has been fit for 19 games, he has started 15 of them the ones he didn’t were Villa (when he was coming back and Hernandez got injured) Stoke away, Norwich and Newcastle away.
February 24 at 12:14 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
Definitely right about first choice then. Nailed on no, but no-one is really with United apart from Evra.
I kept Welbeck for a few weeks a little while ago based on very similar reasoning, that Rooney and Welbeck were the preferred front two
February 24 at 11:56 am
Loooser says:
Vorm or Mignolet in the goal this GW?
I have also Naylor, whom I will bench if Vorm plays. I am also worried since STO will be in a full strength.
February 24 at 12:00 pm
Sheep Flavour says:
Ming…WBA arent fantastic at home…
February 24 at 12:04 pm
Loooser says:
do you think that Crouch and Co. could score?
If Vorm is out then I should play Naylor (to cover possible SWA CS), but i have Kmp, Santon and Evans in front of him.
February 24 at 12:07 pm
Sheep Flavour says:
Its up to you dude as its your team which is what I say to everyone but I think while Stoke might not win they will score one at least and WBA for me, scoring is less likely.
February 24 at 12:09 pm
Loooser says:
sure, but consulting friends makes it easier tosee other alternatives and possibilities. Especially for people like me, occasional players.
February 24 at 12:16 pm
Sheep Flavour says:
No thats cool, same as me
February 24 at 11:59 am
goon87 says:
RMT:
Given (Vorm)
Evans, Richards, Simpson (Kelly, BAE)
Silva, Sess, Bale, Dempsey (Moses)
Aguero, RVP, Graham
I don’t have the money for Ba but I can swap Graham>Welbeck.
Thoughts please?
February 24 at 11:59 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) - F1 fans join our league, ask Udit, Ankit or me for details says:
Hello all. Seeing as there is a different crowd on here now, this is just to let you all now that Ankit has set up a Formula 1 fantasy team, details below. It’s fairly straightforward to play so wont take up too much time and best of all it’s free. So come and join us
Site: http://fantasy.etana.co.za/f1fantasy/
League Code: 16873178398881
February 24 at 12:02 pm
jkisthe1 - Hola Los Colchoneros says:
oh good did my team yesterday, was gonna ask about a league. Thanks dude.
February 24 at 12:03 pm
Loooser says:
it seems quite boring…. you basically pick the drivers and thats it.
February 24 at 12:05 pm
Loooser says:
or?
February 24 at 12:03 pm
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Cheers Catmac.
February 24 at 12:06 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Catmac, you like my new grav? At least some one does
But I’ve changed it now, see how you like the new one, Oh and you support McClaren? tsk tsk 
February 24 at 12:09 pm
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
This one is better.
I support Ferrari & You?
BTW tsk tsk
February 24 at 12:13 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
I used to support Ferrari like crazy when Schumacher and Raikonnen where there, now not so much, I support Schumacher, so Mercedes, tsk tsk for supporting McLosers.
February 24 at 12:12 pm
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) - F1 fans join our league, ask Udit, Ankit or me for details says:
How many changes is that today?
Seriously though, I like that one, much more positive. And yes, I’ve been a McLaren supporter for years, although I think Force India could spring a few surprises this year
February 24 at 12:14 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
4 I think
February 24 at 12:08 pm
Gigging Order says:
Thanks, will set up a team later and join
February 24 at 12:08 pm
1966 was a great year for English football - Eric was born says:
Something else for people to get moody about
‘Grrr, all these Europa League posts.’
‘Grrr, all these F1 posts’
Grrr, all these cricket posts’
February 24 at 12:15 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Surprisingly enough I love all three
I hope I’m not the only one.
February 24 at 12:15 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
i love posts that have three grrrs in them
February 24 at 12:18 pm
1966 was a great year for English football - Eric was born says:
If you imagine a fist being waved at the sky at the same time it’s even better.
February 24 at 1:05 pm
Bookaholic says:
Just joined the league!!!!
February 24 at 12:02 pm
markymark says:
Richards declared fit for Blackburn game http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/17151322
February 24 at 12:12 pm
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Booo!
February 24 at 12:18 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
booo you
February 24 at 1:14 pm
Bookaholic says:
YES!!!
February 24 at 12:02 pm
Kings of Lyon says:
Will all this Europa league and champs league chat on here stop after this gw or is it here for the long haul?
February 24 at 12:04 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
In absolute terms – no
As a proportion of posts made on the board – absolutely
February 24 at 12:07 pm
Kings of Lyon says:
Hmmm I can deal with that. I’d happily look through 100 rmts. I don’t care much for the history of slovan librec or who are the main rival of MyPa
February 24 at 12:19 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
now you have me wondering who the main rivals of MyPa are?
February 24 at 12:04 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
February 24 at 12:05 pm
Kings of Lyon says:
I was afraid of that
February 24 at 12:07 pm
Team Hayemaker says:
you would think Doosra would spend a bit more time concentrating on his own team than writing about some random tourney but he seems happy with finshing up with a 6 figure score.
February 24 at 12:11 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
It’s called altruism mate, if you’re not familiar with the word look it up.
February 24 at 12:16 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Ha
Perfect.
February 24 at 12:21 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
brill, that is first time altruism has ever been used in a put down
February 24 at 12:12 pm
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
LOL, sorry
February 24 at 12:14 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
*ranking
February 24 at 12:16 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Tsk tsk, you really need to improve your spelling buddy.
February 24 at 12:10 pm
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Is this another one you missed KoL?
February 24 at 12:12 pm
Kings of Lyon says:
It ismate, hence the bitterness
I don’t even know who you are 
February 24 at 12:14 pm
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
In Like Flynn, Sorry. I may have to address that and stick ILF in there somewhere.
February 24 at 12:17 pm
Kings of Lyon says:
Ahh okk, ill remember that
Hope you’re well mate 
February 24 at 12:25 pm
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Yep, not three bad thanks KoL. Off to new post.
February 24 at 12:04 pm
hunkydory says:
Mignolet, Lindegaard
Kompany, Evans, Simpson, Rangel, Kelly
Dempsey, McClean, Valencia, Silva, Bale
RvP, Ba, Aguero
I have 2 FTs, 0.3 in bank. I’d like to dispose of Lindegaard & Rangel this week, but for whom?:
A) Cahill & Bogdan
B) Krul & Caulker
Advice welcome!
February 24 at 12:04 pm
Kings of Lyon says:
A outta they two
February 24 at 12:04 pm
div says:
RMT please
Mignolet
Richards, Evans, Raylor
Silva, Sess, Dempsey, Bale
RVP, Aguero(vc), Ba(c)
Vorm, McClean, Rangel, Senderos
February 24 at 12:06 pm
Loooser says:
perfect. I am thinking Vorm or Mign myself. Shall I do Mign?
February 24 at 12:08 pm
div says:
I just done it myself, great value and good chance of CS.
February 24 at 12:05 pm
pjomara says:
The article is very interesting but there are two flaws.
1. Describing Spurs as having favourable fixtures on the horizon. No they don’t, not until GW 31 by my reckoning.
2. Seeing a high St. Dev as a negative thing, particularly with midfielders.
Firstly, every player is going to get a good few 2s and 3s, so if you’ve a high st. dev. you’re getting occasional high GW scores which is a good thing.
Secondly, on investigating these high GW scores you might spot a trend for these high scoring GWs such as home games against anyone, and away games vs bottom 6 clubs , so you could play them for those games and drop them for the likely 2 pointers, thus giving you a much higher average overall.
Thirdly, players like Silva that have played a part in every game so he has no 0s which helps him have a low st. dev. Nani and many others have missed a few games and so these 0s will raise their st. dev. and also reduce their mean score, however with them on your team you’ll have a sub to come in so it’s not like these 0s will reflect in a 0 on your team for the week.
February 24 at 12:30 pm
ROBERTO MANKINI says:
so 3 flaws you mean….
February 24 at 12:33 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park" says:
the graphs are nice to look at
February 24 at 12:05 pm
Mac says:
NEW POST
February 24 at 12:05 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
BBC
1009:
BREAKING NEWS
Terry Connor has been named Wolves manager until the end of the season, the club have confirmed.
OK IMO this is basically a white flag; if they really were going to make some effort to stay up they’d bring in an experienced pro. Will be targeting matches against Wolves from here on in, could be some real thrashings I think.
February 24 at 12:08 pm
wildrover says:
Nobody wants the job
February 24 at 12:11 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
Come on now, that’s a little unrealistic. A vacancy at a Premier League club not in acute financial distress and that have only recently dropped into the relegation zone?
February 24 at 12:12 pm
pjomara says:
Is Terry Connor, Emile Heskey’s dad?
February 24 at 12:10 pm
disparate dan - Nogometni Klub Maribor, Stajerski ponos! says:
it’s nice to see a black guy getting the role with so few in management but they now won’t get that much needed boost of having a new manager at the club
they certainly will drop
February 24 at 12:12 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
Definitely. Makes sacking Mick even more of an error IMO.
February 24 at 12:22 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
Not so much an error – more a catastrophe. Made the club look prattish, now.
February 24 at 12:14 pm
ChristIna says:
Thks for the link to the”kick down the backdoor” post. I did not read it first time round and when the w*nker posted it again this morning I obviously missed all the replies.
February 24 at 12:15 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
Intriguing… but not as intriguing/horrific as this grav… seriously, between you and Nino I really don’t know which to retch to first
February 24 at 12:17 pm
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
I think the telepathy machine is on again Isacki.
February 24 at 12:18 pm
Doosra - Αθλητική Ένωσις Κωνσταντινουπόλεως - 1924 says:
February 24 at 12:20 pm
ChristIna says:
Well take it up with “I WAS THE ONLY ONE IN MY ML TO CAPTAIN DEMPSEY, ALSO HAD SORENSEN AS KEEPER”…he complained about me using a gravatar of my imaginary wife.
Apparently it gave him a hard on. So I had to make a change.
BTW, you are not an oil painting yourself…
February 24 at 12:37 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
True that.
February 24 at 12:37 pm
isacki - woke up today as manager of fulham. i'll be back. says:
*Sob*
February 24 at 12:19 pm
Sheep Flavour says:
Any news yet on the LFC V EFC DGW?
February 24 at 12:45 pm
Midnight Rambler says:
Great article, hope to see more like it. Always hard to picture the multiple variables on a 2D graph – price might have been an interesting third variable. Tempted to have a go at using a multivariate analysis method like PCA of PLS to see which stats on a player results in highest point turnover. perhaps a job for next season.
February 24 at 12:52 pm
steveb79 says:
Should I keep this starting line up or bring anyone in off of the bench??
Krul
Cahill – Kompany (V) – Santon
Bale – Sessignon – Yaya – Dempsey
RVP – Aguero (C) – P Cisse
Vorm – Cleverley – N Taylor – Enrique
February 24 at 2:43 pm
Twisted Saltergater says:
A quite brilliant article, right up my street! Cheers Chris.
February 24 at 4:01 pm
Stern John Terry Wilson Palacios says:
+1, excellent read
February 24 at 3:35 pm
Croco says:
Any reason of not getting Pilkington? Norwich’s fixtures seems ok after playing against Man utd
February 24 at 4:02 pm
Stern John Terry Wilson Palacios says:
Rotation always a risk with Lambert
February 24 at 4:01 pm
Stern John Terry Wilson Palacios says:
Is the general consensus that Samba will not be included in the Blackburn squad to face Man City? If so, think I will go Aguero (C) over Ba. It worked last time I captained a striker against Blackburn …
February 24 at 4:13 pm
Back on the horse says:
Good article, I like it.
I didn’t read it all because it was too long and I haven’t taken notice of anything in it because I like to go with my gut in FPL… but I liked it in principle