Feature – Risk vs Reward

Filed under: Feature - Posted by: Chris Glover

Not all Fantasy points are created equal. While we obviously want to maximise the total returns gained over the course of the season, on an individual level we also need to account for the cost of those points and the certainty with which they can be projected.

Cost is fairly easy to measure by looking at points divided by millions of pounds spent. Risk, however, is more tricky but will be defined here as an inconsistent player. For example, consider the two players below:

Gameweek 1 Gameweek 2 Gameweek 3 Gameweek 4 Average
Player A 5 6 5 5 5.25
Player B 10 1 2 8 5.25

Both players give you the same total points but Player B’s erratic production is much harder to anticipate and can have a negative impact for a variety of reasons:

Transfer targets become difficult to predict, as you don’t know if Player B is a legitimate Fantasy option or merely someone who had a couple of standout games. It’s much more likely that Player A will be able to maintain his production going forward.

Squad players become trickier to rotate in your first XI, as you’re unable to predict with any certainty just what they might contribute that Gameweek. If you play a player week in, week out, this isn’t an issue, but if you are looking to rotate a player, consistency can be a valuable asset.

Inconsistent players are far more difficult to manage when it comes to the captain’s armband, someone like Player B could explode or flop in any given Gameweek. Captain him every week and this is not a concern but if, like most Fantasy managers, you change your captain on a regular basis, this unpredictability just increases the risk involved.

This data can only be used alongside other factors as it is (a) retrospective rather than predictive and (b) it isn’t necessarily a good idea to rid yourself of all risk in your side as this will also limit potential.

That said, we can attempt to identify comparable players who might bring equally good production potential for less risk, and thus represent a better use of your team’s valuable funds.

Before we start, a note about the charts included in this article. They plot a players average (mean) Gameweek score, against the standard deviation of those scores – eg: the level of rise and fall week by week, as a representation of the “risk” involved with a player. The further a player appears to the right of the X axis (bottom horizontal axis) of the chart, the greater the deviation or risk involved. The further the player appears up the Y axis (left vertical axis) – the greater their average Gameweek score. Ultimately, we’re looking for players with strong Gameweek scores, with as low a risk factor as possible – these players give strong returns but, crucially, are also consistent.

Let’s begin by looking at the forwards…

We can immediately see that in general, higher reward is accompanied by higher risk. This stands to reason – the top players have the ability to score double digit points in any given Gameweek, and thus have further to fall when things don’t go their way. However, there are a couple of match-ups where the ‘risk’ involved could be deciding factor:

Sergio Aguero vs Wayne Rooney – The Manchester rivals have been tough to distinguish this year. Both have averaged around six points per game, though Rooney has edged ahead in the past fortnight in terms of points per week thanks to a couple of big performances.

The popular perception is that Rooney brings a level of consistency matched by few but, in fact, his points total has been boosted by a handful of huge performances, including back-to-back hat tricks in Gameweeks three and four. That in itself isn’t a big problem but the fact that these displays have come against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal made it likelier that Rooney wasn’t given the captain’s armband by his owners on those occasions.

Starting with Blackburn at home this weekend, Man City have the slightly more favourable fixtures in the short-term, and with Aguero consistently chipping in with good returns, he might just be the wiser choice right now.

Emmanuel Adebayor and Demba Ba vs. Elite forwards – there is a strong argument based on the above data, to plug both Adebayor and Ba into your lineup, using the funds saved to invest in midfield (where cheaper, consistent talent has been very hard to find). Both mid-price strikers have managed to deliver great consistency to match their high returns, as opposed to other flash-in-the-pans assets whose production has been erratic at best (we’re looking at you, Yakubu). Both Tottenham and Newcastle have a strong set of fixtures on the horizon, so while it isn’t controversial to suggest this pair is worth owning, there’s an argument to suggest that they can be owned instead of Rooney and Aguero, rather than alongside them.

Daniel Sturridge vs Edin Dzeko – Sturridge started the season on the sidelines and a lack of stand-out individual performances have really kept him out of the Fantasy headlines. His ownership has crept up into double digits but that level is still below what one would expect for a player with Sturridge’s risk/reward profile. He has found the net in eight different games, not far behind Rooney, Aguero and Ba (10) but a lack of substantial returns has suppressed his overall points total, and thus the interest of Fantasy managers. It goes without saying that Chelsea, and hence Sturridge, lack the upside of the two Manchester teams but if you’re looking to save some cash up top, or to differentiate from the widely-held Ba, Sturridge brings consistent returns, not often found for a player in his price range.

Steven Fletcher vs All other sub-7.0m forwards– the Wolves front man gained some attention during his solid run of form a few weeks back, but the above chart shows he may still be a touch undervalued. Yakubu and Zamora have both been more fancied Fantasy assets at some point this year but they carry much more risk than Fletcher, who has simply shown up and delivered close to five points per game at an almost unmatched level. Zamora may have a slightly higher upside but, if you’re a position to be rotating your third forward, Fletcher’s consistency makes him a very desirable option.

Steve Morison vs Danny Graham and Grant Holt – Morison has only delivered points on a league average basis, so this isn’t going to be the most exciting decision you make for your team. However, the attributes for a good third forward (who will often find himself benched) must include a level of consistency and Morison enjoys an advantage in that area, ahead of the group of comparable four-point-players. He’s found himself benched in the last two weeks and those concerns must obviously be addressed first, but if you believe he can get back into the Norwich lineup, he remains one of the best budget forwards to own.

You can immediately see the correlation is stronger among midfielders with fewer outliers to highlight. There are however, a couple of familiar names that are worth highlighting:

David Silva vs. Everyone else – Okay, admittedly, highlighting the second-top scoring midfielder around, owned by 44% of FPL managers isn’t going to win any awards for investigative journalism. However, idle wildcards are the devil’s tools and with Gareth Bale and Clint Dempsey continuing to impress, there may be many managers tempted to turn their collective backs on the Spanish maestro.

While looking for the next big thing is obviously a sound idea, the above data merely lends further weight to the fact that Silva is simply too good to drop. Bale has the edge on him in terms of pure point production per game but he has been significantly more unpredictable, raising the question as to whether Bale’s form will continue for the remainder of the season.

Silva, on the other hand, has failed to score or assist a goal in back-to-back starts just twice all season. When spending 10.0 plus, the security of knowing what you’re getting for your money is a huge benefit, especially if that stability is not accompanied by a downgrade in overall production. Assuming most Fantasy managers reading this already own Silva, this may be one area where apathy wins out . Doing nothing might just be the way to go with Silva – that transfer itch might be better scratched elsewhere.

Theo Walcott vs Mid range midfielders – Consistency isn’t the first word you associate with the frustrating Walcott but, in Fantasy terms at least, he has been exactly that this season. The winger chipped in with nine games of between five and nine points compared to fourteen disappointing outings, which doesn’t sound great in a vacuum but actually compares favourably to several more fancied options: Stephane Sessegnon (9 vs 14), Nani (8 vs 14) and Dempsey (8 vs 13). The high scores have been limited, which has really kept Walcott out of Fantasy managers’ minds and thus he represents a good buying opportunity given his high floor and mid-range ceiling. Having been dropped for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the FA Cup trip to Sunderland last weekend, however, Walcott’s starts will need to be monitored, with a first-team starting place perhaps under question for the first time this season.

Consistency of defensive points is always going to be tied more to a player’s team than his own ability, so the analysis here is less telling, but a couple of names still pop up which deserve a quick mention:

Kyle Walker vs Benoit Assou-Ekotto – With a couple of big performances over the past six weeks, Assou-Ekotto has leapt to the top of the defensive points charts, though the above would suggest that team-mate Walker represents better value. Aside from the fact he is slightly cheaper and owned by less than half as many Fantasy managers, Walker has also delivered slightly better per-game returns on a much more consistent basis. Throw in Walker’s comparable, or marginally better, performance stats (including shots on goal and key passes) and you have a clear cut differential candidate who should remain on the radar.

Vincent Kompany vs Thomas Vermaelen – Vermaelen has rarely been a hot Fantasy property this term, but his positioning in our chart illustrates a worthy point of note. Defensive goalscorers obviously carry significant potential but the unpredictability of those returns can often limit a player’s value. If the goals have come in games where logic suggests the player should have been benched in our Fantasy lineups, they may have been wasted, but would have still boosted a player in the overall scoring charts.

Vermaelen has earned a large portion of his points from offensive production so, unless you are willing to play him every week, he looks way too unpredictable to justify his decent returns when compared with someone like Kompany, whose production has been much flatter, with City’s defensive returns his bread and butter.

About The Author

“Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice.”

Chris Glover @plfantasy

> See all posts by this author

  1. I'm not buying this Silva is a must malarky. I had silva from day one, then when he reached 45%ish ownership I dropped him. Since then I've done nothing but rise in rankings. From 1.2M to under 100k. 18 out of 20 green arrows. =

    I think for 10M to get 5-6 points every week is just not good enough. I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper.

    The facty that he has so high ownership means when he scores it doen't really make a difference to ranking cuase most pople have him, but when he doesn't score, thats 10M that I've used elsewhere to get more points. Proff is in the rankings.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. i'm around the 10k mark and have had silva for most of the season

      you can use statistics to prove anything

      89.9% of people know that

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. Yeah, ok, but I'm pretty sure Silva is the reason I've gone up in rankings. Saying that, I think YAAY's return will mean more points for Silva

        Oh, did you start high? I diodn't have rooney captain for teh first 3 weeks, so started from teh 1.4m mark to get to below 100k

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. 1.3 mil first week but then shot up to 40k the next week and have spent most of the time in the top 100k and risen steadily

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
        2. If Silva's 5-6 pts are the reason for you not having him, then I doubt not having his 5-6 pointers are the reason you went up the rankings. Face it you had a shite start to the season and it did not take much to move up the rankings.

          Cutting down on the hits, good (c) choices and BOOM.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. i don't want to smash your back door in any more

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
              • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. Proff is in the pudding

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. You cook tutors?

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
    3. Walters? lol.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. Yeah, I saw that.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
    4. When he scores and you don't have him you miss out by however much he scores.
      If he's owned by a greater number of people it affects your ranking more.
      If he goes balistic and scores 18 points against Blackburn that will affect your ranking more than if Mata or VdV or Young does.
      If you think Silva will score the best pick Silva - ignore the ownership.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    5. It's pretty easy to get green arrows when you're starting from 1.2m, though.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    6. "I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper."

      This is only true since Jan '12 at the earliest, this wasnt true at the start of the season when Silva was being consistent....

      Thats the point!

      did you have sess, demps and valencia back then.... i doubt it

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  2. pretty epic article

    i don't recognise the guy who wrote it though?

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. You should visit his blog, pretty good stuff!

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. He's a famous actor.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. i assume you are a radiohead fan? are you in the uk? are you as frustrated as me by the lack of gigs here??

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. Patience DD. They're gonna play the UK when they're at their peak. Hopefully a few Irish dates, so I can spoil myself.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
            • 3 years, 9 days ago
            1. On the tour. They'll be super tight when they hit the UK.

              • 3 years, 9 days ago
              1. better not be some enormo-venues

                • 3 years, 9 days ago
  3. Any Rooney news? Starting?

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  4. wrapping up the work week. time for fantasy CL madness!!! time for the derby!!!!


    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. i want you to nail those gooners

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. COYS...

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  5. can anyone tell me if cabaye is fit to play this week, just looking for short term mid and he looks best option, but haven't followed him to know why he missed last three games

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. anyone

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. He's back...he was suspended for 3 games.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
          • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. ty also

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. nice work, your own?

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. Yeah he will start. He's been suspended the last 3 games - at home to a managerless wolves he looks a good choice.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. they have a manager!

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. the wolves bit is good enough for me

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. ty once more

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
  6. Who to start this week out of Sigurdsson and McClean??

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. McClean

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. mclean if u dont have sess
        siggy if u have sess.
        btw if u have sess and mclean, play mclean over sess.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. Nah, play Sess over McClean if you have both.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
  7. div
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member

    Need to transfer Lidegaard and have 1.3 in the bank, 0.9 of which will be used for Rooney (depending he doesn't rise until Saturday night.

    Vorm is my other keeper, so Lindegaard >

    1. Schwarzer (rotates good, but already have Senderos)
    2. Mignolet (not great rotation but cheap and have no defence cover)
    3. Sorensen (rotation risk and have no defence cover)
    4. Other.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. mig, more likely to get CS, forget rotation

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. div
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member

        Cheers for that, might just get him...

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
  8. 4 point hit, 2 transfers,

    Current Team:

    Richards Raylor Kelly
    Silva Bale Sess McClean
    RVP Bent Fletcher

    Subs: Sinclair, Shawcross, Williams.

    Fletch > Ba (C) obvs.

    5.3 with Sinclair making way

    I'm thinking Siggy, Cleverley, Scholesy or am open to any other suggestions?

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. Siggy is the best option. And bent?? Don't see among the goals this week.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. Against Wigan? They're bottom of the league for a reason, IMO I think he'll bag, benching McClean pains me tho...lost 9 points last GW through that call.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
  9. Group F? Lets be having you! :-D

    Europa League Group F Match day 1 Preview
    Well, here we have six-season veteran King Eric (5,805), an assiduous poster if ever there was, joined by Microcuts, Drinking Red Bull and the popular, if sarcastic, SSK Ginkvan, whose beautiful old grav I hope we will be seeing again soon! A very strong pool! Perhaps Cantona’s Crew will justify the arrogant cut of their collars, or be stampeded and creased by Kewell Runnings, both chased very hard by R-U-N-N-O-F-T. It will take all the cunning, skills and dirty tricks of Mutant Ninja Skrtels to upset this applecart!
    Slovan Bratislava (SSK Ginkvan) vs Athletic (Microcuts)
    A difficult match to call - the Artist vs the Athlete - both have Taiwo, and similar midfields.
    Injury / Team News:
    Slovan Bratislava - Already used his free transfer - has Valencia gone, or did he give Cahill the push? Evidence of a certain amount of Bandwagon hopping here.
    Athletic - Certain amount of panic evident here! Two transfers already made for a four point hit, making it four in a row! No injuries, apparently, although Richards may be doubtful.
    Predicted Line Ups
    Slovan Bratislava: Krul; Vermaelen, Richards, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Sessegnon; Zamora, Graham, van Persie
    Athletic: Vorm; Richards, Santon, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Walters; Aguero, Ba, van Persie
    Match Verdict - Away win - forwards too strong.
    PSG (King Eric) vs Salzburg (Drinking Red Bull)
    Can Drinking Red Bull wipe the sneer off King Eric’s face?. Both have minor problems to solve, but I think experience and home advantage will turn this in King Eric’s favour
    Injury / Team News
    PSG - Two free transfers available - although as he has used only 19, they may not be necessary!
    Salzburg: After a huge leap of nearly a million places, game weeks 8 to18, R-U-N-N-O-F-T has tripped. Used his free transfer - did Valencia go?
    Predicted Line Ups
    PSG: Schwarzer; Kompany, Evans, Santon; Dempsey, Bale, Silva, Sigurdsson; Ba, Dzeko, van Persie
    Salzburg: Sorenson; Richards, Santon, Rangel; Bale, Dempsey, Ben Arfa, :?: ; Zamora, Aguero, Van Persie
    Match Verdict - Home win

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. Awesome Work Doos.
      I wonder who will do it for Group C.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. these long posts about some random competetion are starting get annoying.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. You don't have to read them.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. i dont read there crap, but they are bloody hard to ignore considering the length of them.

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
            1. OK let's give you some nice short RMT's. Oh wait, 10000 of them.

              • 3 years, 9 days ago
              • 3 years, 9 days ago
        2. u can buy a mouse with little wheel to scroll quicker, modern technology is amazing

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. shut up you tit

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
            1. you will find i am none of the below so you are wrong again

              tit[tit]   Origin tit1    /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
              1. a titmouse.
              2. any of various other small birds.
              3. Archaic . a girl or young woman; hussy.
              4. Archaic . a small or poor horse; nag.

              Explore the Visual Thesaurus »Related Words for : tit
              bosom, breast, knocker, titmouse
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              Dictionary.com Unabridgedtit2    /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
              1. a teat.
              2. Slang: Vulgar . a breast

              • 3 years, 9 days ago
              1. i always thought you WERE a hussy?

                • 3 years, 9 days ago
                1. damn, and i thought i got away with it, oh gaymaker you are right i am a tit

                  • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. Not me! I have writer's cramp, writer's block - anything you like! ;-) I may well do three more next round, if you like ... ;-)

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. I would have done it myself but my exams are approaching.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. exams, get your priorities in order man, where will exams get you nowdays

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
        2. yes you. finish the job you started. all groups each week

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. No good deed goes unpunished, eh Doos ;)

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
          2. :lol: Not a chance - despite the backhanded compliment ... :-)

            I never promised you a rose garden ... ;-)

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
            1. but you still smell as sweet

              • 3 years, 9 days ago
                • 3 years, 9 days ago
                  • 3 years, 9 days ago
                  1. You may be awful - but I like you!!! :-D

                    • 3 years, 9 days ago
                  2. 8O Compliment?

                    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  10. anyone else temped by a Rooney and Welbeck double up from GW28?

    Am looking for a decent sub 6.5 million replacement for the Gerbil. Yak is inconsistent (though he is still an option), my main rival has Fletcher (who is injury prone) Morison seems to have lost his place. That leaves Holt, Graham and Welbeck as my other options.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  11. With Rooney a doubt...DW a shout for a start Sat?

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. Welbeck will start with or without Rooney, he is first choice now.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. first choice? Even if Rooney fit and ready?

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. And with Han scoring yesterday can we really call Wellbeck first choice?

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. well wait and see who starts on Sat (as I think Rooney will) but even with Hernandez fit, Welbeck has been starting regularly in the PL.. Trust me I'm an OT Season Ticket holder, Welbeck is first choice.

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
        2. yup Rooney and Welbeck is the first choice front 2 now. Hernandez is back in his role as super-sub.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. Rubbish - complete codswallop.
            Stop presenting this as some sort of gospel fact when it patently isn't.
            Hernandez will start some games, Welbeck will start some games and quite possibly Berbatov will start some games. Even if Welbeck starts more than Hernandez it doesn't make him first choice.

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
            1. Actually I'm confusing the terms first choice with nailed on.
              I tend to use two interchangeably - if you are suggesting that Welbeck is nailed on for the rest of the season (providing he's fit) then you are wrong. If you are suggesting that he will start more than Hernandez - you may be right.

              • 3 years, 9 days ago
              1. Well, I hope he bloody well starts the next two, and scores a few!!! ;-)

                • 3 years, 9 days ago
                1. do you own him Doos?

                  See my post above :P

                  • 3 years, 9 days ago
                  1. I do, I do, I do, I do ...

                    • 3 years, 9 days ago
              2. it is the 2nd of those 2, Like I said I'm at OT most weeks and so I understand Fergie's rotation policy better than most (this is why Rooney, Evans and Evra are the best United options IMO as they are nailed on. (and even if Evans isn't he's cheap enough not to worry.)

                • 3 years, 9 days ago
            2. Hernandez has started 5 games whilst Welbeck has been fit, and 3 of those he played with him.

              • 3 years, 9 days ago
              1. Couple of weeks ago Fergie admitted it was a mistake not starting Hernandez against Arsenal... Think Rooney is the only one nailed on up front...

                • 3 years, 9 days ago
              2. Real question is which proportion of matches has Welbeck started when he's fit?

                • 3 years, 9 days ago
                1. he has been fit for 19 games, he has started 15 of them the ones he didn't were Villa (when he was coming back and Hernandez got injured) Stoke away, Norwich and Newcastle away.

                  • 3 years, 9 days ago
                  1. Definitely right about first choice then. Nailed on no, but no-one is really with United apart from Evra.

                    I kept Welbeck for a few weeks a little while ago based on very similar reasoning, that Rooney and Welbeck were the preferred front two

                    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  12. Vorm or Mignolet in the goal this GW?

    I have also Naylor, whom I will bench if Vorm plays. I am also worried since STO will be in a full strength.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. Ming...WBA arent fantastic at home...

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. do you think that Crouch and Co. could score?

        If Vorm is out then I should play Naylor (to cover possible SWA CS), but i have Kmp, Santon and Evans in front of him.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. Its up to you dude as its your team which is what I say to everyone but I think while Stoke might not win they will score one at least and WBA for me, scoring is less likely.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
        2. sure, but consulting friends makes it easier tosee other alternatives and possibilities. Especially for people like me, occasional players.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. No thats cool, same as me :)

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
  13. RMT:

    Given (Vorm)
    Evans, Richards, Simpson (Kelly, BAE)
    Silva, Sess, Bale, Dempsey (Moses)
    Aguero, RVP, Graham

    I don't have the money for Ba but I can swap Graham>Welbeck.
    Thoughts please?

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  14. Hello all. Seeing as there is a different crowd on here now, this is just to let you all now that Ankit has set up a Formula 1 fantasy team, details below. It's fairly straightforward to play so wont take up too much time and best of all it's free. So come and join us :)

    Site: http://fantasy.etana.co.za/f1fantasy/
    League Code: 16873178398881

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. oh good did my team yesterday, was gonna ask about a league. Thanks dude.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. it seems quite boring.... you basically pick the drivers and thats it.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. or?

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
    3. Cheers Catmac.

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    4. Catmac, you like my new grav? At least some one does :) But I've changed it now, see how you like the new one, Oh and you support McClaren? tsk tsk ;)

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. This one is better.
        I support Ferrari & You?
        BTW tsk tsk :?:

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. I used to support Ferrari like crazy when Schumacher and Raikonnen where there, now not so much, I support Schumacher, so Mercedes, tsk tsk for supporting McLosers.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. How many changes is that today? :D

        Seriously though, I like that one, much more positive. And yes, I've been a McLaren supporter for years, although I think Force India could spring a few surprises this year :|

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. 4 I think :)

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
    5. Thanks, will set up a team later and join

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    6. Something else for people to get moody about ;)

      'Grrr, all these Europa League posts.' :mad:
      'Grrr, all these F1 posts' :mad:
      Grrr, all these cricket posts' :mad:

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. Surprisingly enough I love all three :) I hope I'm not the only one.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. i love posts that have three grrrs in them

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. If you imagine a fist being waved at the sky at the same time it's even better.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
    7. Just joined the league!!!! :D

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  15. Richards declared fit for Blackburn game http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/17151322

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. booo you

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  16. Will all this Europa league and champs league chat on here stop after this gw or is it here for the long haul?

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. In absolute terms - no
      As a proportion of posts made on the board - absolutely

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. Hmmm I can deal with that. I'd happily look through 100 rmts. I don't care much for the history of slovan librec or who are the main rival of MyPa

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. now you have me wondering who the main rivals of MyPa are?

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. :-) Right on 'til the end of the road! ;-)

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. I was afraid of that :(

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. you would think Doosra would spend a bit more time concentrating on his own team than writing about some random tourney but he seems happy with finshing up with a 6 figure score.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. It's called altruism mate, if you're not familiar with the word look it up.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. Ha :D Perfect.

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
          2. brill, that is first time altruism has ever been used in a put down

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          • 3 years, 9 days ago
        2. Tsk tsk, you really need to improve your spelling buddy.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
    3. Is this another one you missed KoL?

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. It ismate, hence the bitterness ;) I don't even know who you are :(

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. In Like Flynn, Sorry. I may have to address that and stick ILF in there somewhere.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. Ahh okk, ill remember that :) Hope you're well mate :)

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
            1. Yep, not three bad thanks KoL. Off to new post.

              • 3 years, 9 days ago
  17. Mignolet, Lindegaard
    Kompany, Evans, Simpson, Rangel, Kelly
    Dempsey, McClean, Valencia, Silva, Bale
    RvP, Ba, Aguero

    I have 2 FTs, 0.3 in bank. I'd like to dispose of Lindegaard & Rangel this week, but for whom?:

    A) Cahill & Bogdan
    B) Krul & Caulker

    Advice welcome!

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. A outta they two

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  18. div
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member

    RMT please

    Richards, Evans, Raylor
    Silva, Sess, Dempsey, Bale
    RVP, Aguero(vc), Ba(c)

    Vorm, McClean, Rangel, Senderos

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. perfect. I am thinking Vorm or Mign myself. Shall I do Mign?

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. div
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member

        I just done it myself, great value and good chance of CS.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
  19. The article is very interesting but there are two flaws.
    1. Describing Spurs as having favourable fixtures on the horizon. No they don't, not until GW 31 by my reckoning.
    2. Seeing a high St. Dev as a negative thing, particularly with midfielders.
    Firstly, every player is going to get a good few 2s and 3s, so if you've a high st. dev. you're getting occasional high GW scores which is a good thing.
    Secondly, on investigating these high GW scores you might spot a trend for these high scoring GWs such as home games against anyone, and away games vs bottom 6 clubs , so you could play them for those games and drop them for the likely 2 pointers, thus giving you a much higher average overall.
    Thirdly, players like Silva that have played a part in every game so he has no 0s which helps him have a low st. dev. Nani and many others have missed a few games and so these 0s will raise their st. dev. and also reduce their mean score, however with them on your team you'll have a sub to come in so it's not like these 0s will reflect in a 0 on your team for the week.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. so 3 flaws you mean....

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. the graphs are nice to look at

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  20. NEW POST

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  21. BBC

    Terry Connor has been named Wolves manager until the end of the season, the club have confirmed.

    OK IMO this is basically a white flag; if they really were going to make some effort to stay up they'd bring in an experienced pro. Will be targeting matches against Wolves from here on in, could be some real thrashings I think.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. Nobody wants the job

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. Come on now, that's a little unrealistic. A vacancy at a Premier League club not in acute financial distress and that have only recently dropped into the relegation zone?

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. Is Terry Connor, Emile Heskey's dad?

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
    2. it's nice to see a black guy getting the role with so few in management but they now won't get that much needed boost of having a new manager at the club

      they certainly will drop

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
      1. Definitely. Makes sacking Mick even more of an error IMO.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. Not so much an error - more a catastrophe. Made the club look prattish, now.

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
      2. Thks for the link to the"kick down the backdoor" post. I did not read it first time round and when the w*nker posted it again this morning I obviously missed all the replies.

        • 3 years, 9 days ago
        1. Intriguing... but not as intriguing/horrific as this grav... seriously, between you and Nino I really don't know which to retch to first

          • 3 years, 9 days ago
          1. I think the telepathy machine is on again Isacki.

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
          2. :lol: Neat bit of abuse there!!! :-D

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
          3. Well take it up with "I WAS THE ONLY ONE IN MY ML TO CAPTAIN DEMPSEY, ALSO HAD SORENSEN AS KEEPER"...he complained about me using a gravatar of my imaginary wife.

            Apparently it gave him a hard on. So I had to make a change.

            BTW, you are not an oil painting yourself...

            • 3 years, 9 days ago
              • 3 years, 9 days ago
                • 3 years, 9 days ago
  22. Any news yet on the LFC V EFC DGW?

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  23. Great article, hope to see more like it. Always hard to picture the multiple variables on a 2D graph - price might have been an interesting third variable. Tempted to have a go at using a multivariate analysis method like PCA of PLS to see which stats on a player results in highest point turnover. perhaps a job for next season.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  24. Should I keep this starting line up or bring anyone in off of the bench??

    Cahill – Kompany (V) – Santon
    Bale – Sessignon – Yaya – Dempsey
    RVP – Aguero (C) – P Cisse

    Vorm – Cleverley – N Taylor – Enrique

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  25. A quite brilliant article, right up my street! Cheers Chris.

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. +1, excellent read

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  26. Any reason of not getting Pilkington? Norwich's fixtures seems ok after playing against Man utd

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
    1. Rotation always a risk with Lambert

      • 3 years, 9 days ago
  27. Is the general consensus that Samba will not be included in the Blackburn squad to face Man City? If so, think I will go Aguero (C) over Ba. It worked last time I captained a striker against Blackburn ...

    • 3 years, 9 days ago
  28. Good article, I like it.

    I didn't read it all because it was too long and I haven't taken notice of anything in it because I like to go with my gut in FPL... but I liked it in principle

    • 3 years, 9 days ago

Scout Picks

For Gameweek 28

  • Lloris
  • Ivanovic
  • Skrtel
  • Clichy
  • Eriksen
  • Hazard
  • Sterling
  • Mane
  • Austin
  • Kane
  • Aguero
  • Yun
  • Ozil
  • Rooney

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Fixture Ticker

The Watchlist


Last updated: 2 Mar, 2015 11:08am
Player Club Factors
Up Foster WBA A, Vs
Down Pantilimon SUN B, Vs
No Change Ospina ARS B
Up Lloris TOT C, Vs
Down Hart MCI C, Vs
Up Green QPR C, Vs
Down Guzan AVL C, Vs
Up Speroni CPL C


Last updated: 2 Mar, 2015 2:23pm
Player Club Factors
Up Ivanovic CHE A
No Change Bellerín ARS A, Rest, £
Up Dawson WBA A, Vs, £
Up Rose TOT B, Vs, Rest, £
Up Naughton SWA B, Vs, £
Up Yun QPR C, Vs, £
Down Bertrand SOT C
Down Réveillere SUN B, Vs, £
Down Kompany MCI C, Vs
Down Wollscheid STO C
Down Skrtel LIV B
Down Cresswell WHM C, VsX
Up Dann CPL C, Vs
Down Vlaar AVL C, Vs, Inj


Last updated: 2 Mar, 2015 11:33am
Player Club Factors
Up Hazard CHE A
No Change Silva MCI A, Vs
Up Eriksen TOT C, Vs
Up Ozil ARS A, Vs
Up Sterling LIV B, VsX
Down Sánchez ARS C, Vs
Up Phillips QPR B, Vs
Up Puncheon CPL B, VsX
Down Mane SOT C, Vs
No Change Sinclair AVL B, Vs, £
Down Walters STO B
Down Di María MUN B
Down Downing WHM C
Up Ki SWA B, Vs


Last updated: 3 Mar, 2015 7:05pm
Player Club Factors
No Change Aguero MCI A, Vs
Up Kane TOT A, Vs
Up Austin QPR B, Vs
Down Giroud ARS B, Vs
Up Rooney MUN B
Down Diego Costa CHE C
Down NDoye HUL B, £
Up Cissé NEW B, Vs, £
Up Gomis SWA C, Vs
Down Sturridge LIV C, VsX, Rest
Down Lukaku EVE C
No Change Defoe SUN C
Up Benteke AVL C, Vs
Down Berahino WBA B

Selection Factors

A, B, C Current Form
Vs Favourable Fixtures
VsX Unfavourable Fixtures
Rest Rotation Risk
Inj Injured/Returning from Injury
OoP Out of Position
£ Potential Bargain
Sus Suspended/Near Suspension

The Suspension Tightrope

Player Team YC
Clark AVL 9
Barry EVE 9
Bardsley STO 9
Larsson SUN 9
Taylor SWA 9
Cleverley AVL 8
Diego Costa CHE 8
Fábregas CHE 8
Besic EVE 8
Livermore HUL 8
Gerrard LIV 8
Barton QPR 8
Pellè SOT 8
Wanyama SOT 8
Reid WHM 8
Chambers ARS 7
Agbonlahor AVL 7
Okore AVL 7
Matic CHE 7
Henderson LIV 7
Skrtel LIV 7
Kompany MCI 7
Fernandinho MCI 7
Janmaat NEW 7
Dunne QPR 7
Fonte SOT 7
Schneiderlin SOT 7
Shelvey SWA 7
Mason TOT 7
Gardner WBA 7

“Last year was quite open for me, I was in good positions, but I was quite lucky because I was getting free kicks and some penalties as well.”

Yaya Toure Manchester City midfielder