634x258 927
Feature

Feature – Risk vs Reward

Not all Fantasy points are created equal. While we obviously want to maximise the total returns gained over the course of the season, on an individual level we also need to account for the cost of those points and the certainty with which they can be projected.

Cost is fairly easy to measure by looking at points divided by millions of pounds spent. Risk, however, is more tricky but will be defined here as an inconsistent player. For example, consider the two players below:

Gameweek 1 Gameweek 2 Gameweek 3 Gameweek 4 Average
Player A 5 6 5 5 5.25
Player B 10 1 2 8 5.25

Both players give you the same total points but Player B’s erratic production is much harder to anticipate and can have a negative impact for a variety of reasons:

Transfer targets become difficult to predict, as you don’t know if Player B is a legitimate Fantasy option or merely someone who had a couple of standout games. It’s much more likely that Player A will be able to maintain his production going forward.

Squad players become trickier to rotate in your first XI, as you’re unable to predict with any certainty just what they might contribute that Gameweek. If you play a player week in, week out, this isn’t an issue, but if you are looking to rotate a player, consistency can be a valuable asset.

Inconsistent players are far more difficult to manage when it comes to the captain’s armband, someone like Player B could explode or flop in any given Gameweek. Captain him every week and this is not a concern but if, like most Fantasy managers, you change your captain on a regular basis, this unpredictability just increases the risk involved.

This data can only be used alongside other factors as it is (a) retrospective rather than predictive and (b) it isn’t necessarily a good idea to rid yourself of all risk in your side as this will also limit potential.

That said, we can attempt to identify comparable players who might bring equally good production potential for less risk, and thus represent a better use of your team’s valuable funds.

Before we start, a note about the charts included in this article. They plot a players average (mean) Gameweek score, against the standard deviation of those scores – eg: the level of rise and fall week by week, as a representation of the “risk” involved with a player. The further a player appears to the right of the X axis (bottom horizontal axis) of the chart, the greater the deviation or risk involved. The further the player appears up the Y axis (left vertical axis) – the greater their average Gameweek score. Ultimately, we’re looking for players with strong Gameweek scores, with as low a risk factor as possible – these players give strong returns but, crucially, are also consistent.

Let’s begin by looking at the forwards…

We can immediately see that in general, higher reward is accompanied by higher risk. This stands to reason – the top players have the ability to score double digit points in any given Gameweek, and thus have further to fall when things don’t go their way. However, there are a couple of match-ups where the ‘risk’ involved could be deciding factor:

Sergio Aguero vs Wayne Rooney – The Manchester rivals have been tough to distinguish this year. Both have averaged around six points per game, though Rooney has edged ahead in the past fortnight in terms of points per week thanks to a couple of big performances.

The popular perception is that Rooney brings a level of consistency matched by few but, in fact, his points total has been boosted by a handful of huge performances, including back-to-back hat tricks in Gameweeks three and four. That in itself isn’t a big problem but the fact that these displays have come against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal made it likelier that Rooney wasn’t given the captain’s armband by his owners on those occasions.

Starting with Blackburn at home this weekend, Man City have the slightly more favourable fixtures in the short-term, and with Aguero consistently chipping in with good returns, he might just be the wiser choice right now.

Emmanuel Adebayor and Demba Ba vs. Elite forwards – there is a strong argument based on the above data, to plug both Adebayor and Ba into your lineup, using the funds saved to invest in midfield (where cheaper, consistent talent has been very hard to find). Both mid-price strikers have managed to deliver great consistency to match their high returns, as opposed to other flash-in-the-pans assets whose production has been erratic at best (we’re looking at you, Yakubu). Both Tottenham and Newcastle have a strong set of fixtures on the horizon, so while it isn’t controversial to suggest this pair is worth owning, there’s an argument to suggest that they can be owned instead of Rooney and Aguero, rather than alongside them.

Daniel Sturridge vs Edin Dzeko – Sturridge started the season on the sidelines and a lack of stand-out individual performances have really kept him out of the Fantasy headlines. His ownership has crept up into double digits but that level is still below what one would expect for a player with Sturridge’s risk/reward profile. He has found the net in eight different games, not far behind Rooney, Aguero and Ba (10) but a lack of substantial returns has suppressed his overall points total, and thus the interest of Fantasy managers. It goes without saying that Chelsea, and hence Sturridge, lack the upside of the two Manchester teams but if you’re looking to save some cash up top, or to differentiate from the widely-held Ba, Sturridge brings consistent returns, not often found for a player in his price range.

Steven Fletcher vs All other sub-7.0m forwards– the Wolves front man gained some attention during his solid run of form a few weeks back, but the above chart shows he may still be a touch undervalued. Yakubu and Zamora have both been more fancied Fantasy assets at some point this year but they carry much more risk than Fletcher, who has simply shown up and delivered close to five points per game at an almost unmatched level. Zamora may have a slightly higher upside but, if you’re a position to be rotating your third forward, Fletcher’s consistency makes him a very desirable option.

Steve Morison vs Danny Graham and Grant Holt – Morison has only delivered points on a league average basis, so this isn’t going to be the most exciting decision you make for your team. However, the attributes for a good third forward (who will often find himself benched) must include a level of consistency and Morison enjoys an advantage in that area, ahead of the group of comparable four-point-players. He’s found himself benched in the last two weeks and those concerns must obviously be addressed first, but if you believe he can get back into the Norwich lineup, he remains one of the best budget forwards to own.

You can immediately see the correlation is stronger among midfielders with fewer outliers to highlight. There are however, a couple of familiar names that are worth highlighting:

David Silva vs. Everyone else – Okay, admittedly, highlighting the second-top scoring midfielder around, owned by 44% of FPL managers isn’t going to win any awards for investigative journalism. However, idle wildcards are the devil’s tools and with Gareth Bale and Clint Dempsey continuing to impress, there may be many managers tempted to turn their collective backs on the Spanish maestro.

While looking for the next big thing is obviously a sound idea, the above data merely lends further weight to the fact that Silva is simply too good to drop. Bale has the edge on him in terms of pure point production per game but he has been significantly more unpredictable, raising the question as to whether Bale’s form will continue for the remainder of the season.

Silva, on the other hand, has failed to score or assist a goal in back-to-back starts just twice all season. When spending 10.0 plus, the security of knowing what you’re getting for your money is a huge benefit, especially if that stability is not accompanied by a downgrade in overall production. Assuming most Fantasy managers reading this already own Silva, this may be one area where apathy wins out . Doing nothing might just be the way to go with Silva – that transfer itch might be better scratched elsewhere.

Theo Walcott vs Mid range midfielders – Consistency isn’t the first word you associate with the frustrating Walcott but, in Fantasy terms at least, he has been exactly that this season. The winger chipped in with nine games of between five and nine points compared to fourteen disappointing outings, which doesn’t sound great in a vacuum but actually compares favourably to several more fancied options: Stephane Sessegnon (9 vs 14), Nani (8 vs 14) and Dempsey (8 vs 13). The high scores have been limited, which has really kept Walcott out of Fantasy managers’ minds and thus he represents a good buying opportunity given his high floor and mid-range ceiling. Having been dropped for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the FA Cup trip to Sunderland last weekend, however, Walcott’s starts will need to be monitored, with a first-team starting place perhaps under question for the first time this season.

Consistency of defensive points is always going to be tied more to a player’s team than his own ability, so the analysis here is less telling, but a couple of names still pop up which deserve a quick mention:

Kyle Walker vs Benoit Assou-Ekotto – With a couple of big performances over the past six weeks, Assou-Ekotto has leapt to the top of the defensive points charts, though the above would suggest that team-mate Walker represents better value. Aside from the fact he is slightly cheaper and owned by less than half as many Fantasy managers, Walker has also delivered slightly better per-game returns on a much more consistent basis. Throw in Walker’s comparable, or marginally better, performance stats (including shots on goal and key passes) and you have a clear cut differential candidate who should remain on the radar.

Vincent Kompany vs Thomas Vermaelen – Vermaelen has rarely been a hot Fantasy property this term, but his positioning in our chart illustrates a worthy point of note. Defensive goalscorers obviously carry significant potential but the unpredictability of those returns can often limit a player’s value. If the goals have come in games where logic suggests the player should have been benched in our Fantasy lineups, they may have been wasted, but would have still boosted a player in the overall scoring charts.

Vermaelen has earned a large portion of his points from offensive production so, unless you are willing to play him every week, he looks way too unpredictable to justify his decent returns when compared with someone like Kompany, whose production has been much flatter, with City’s defensive returns his bread and butter.

Chris Glover Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice.” Follow him on Twitter

927 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Dirty_Harry
    5 years, 8 months ago

    I'm not buying this Silva is a must malarky. I had silva from day one, then when he reached 45%ish ownership I dropped him. Since then I've done nothing but rise in rankings. From 1.2M to under 100k. 18 out of 20 green arrows. =

    I think for 10M to get 5-6 points every week is just not good enough. I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper.

    The facty that he has so high ownership means when he scores it doen't really make a difference to ranking cuase most pople have him, but when he doesn't score, thats 10M that I've used elsewhere to get more points. Proff is in the rankings.

    Open Controls
    1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
      5 years, 8 months ago

      i'm around the 10k mark and have had silva for most of the season

      you can use statistics to prove anything

      89.9% of people know that

      Open Controls
      1. Dirty_Harry
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, ok, but I'm pretty sure Silva is the reason I've gone up in rankings. Saying that, I think YAAY's return will mean more points for Silva

        Oh, did you start high? I diodn't have rooney captain for teh first 3 weeks, so started from teh 1.4m mark to get to below 100k

        Open Controls
        1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
          5 years, 8 months ago

          1.3 mil first week but then shot up to 40k the next week and have spent most of the time in the top 100k and risen steadily

          Open Controls
        2. Christina.
          5 years, 8 months ago

          If Silva's 5-6 pts are the reason for you not having him, then I doubt not having his 5-6 pointers are the reason you went up the rankings. Face it you had a shite start to the season and it did not take much to move up the rankings.

          Cutting down on the hits, good (c) choices and BOOM.

          Open Controls
          1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
            5 years, 8 months ago

            i don't want to smash your back door in any more

            Open Controls
            1. Christina.
              5 years, 8 months ago

              huh?

              Open Controls
    2. @FuzzyWarbles
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Proff is in the pudding

      Open Controls
      1. In Like Flynn.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        5 years, 8 months ago

        You cook tutors?

        Open Controls
    3. Dadio Mane
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Walters? lol.

      Open Controls
      1. Christina.
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, I saw that.

        Open Controls
    4. Scroobius Mac
      5 years, 8 months ago

      When he scores and you don't have him you miss out by however much he scores.
      If he's owned by a greater number of people it affects your ranking more.
      If he goes balistic and scores 18 points against Blackburn that will affect your ranking more than if Mata or VdV or Young does.
      If you think Silva will score the best pick Silva - ignore the ownership.

      Open Controls
    5. 1966 was a great year for E…
      5 years, 8 months ago

      It's pretty easy to get green arrows when you're starting from 1.2m, though.

      Open Controls
    6. Bendy Busdriver
      5 years, 8 months ago

      +1

      Open Controls
    7. Connster
      5 years, 8 months ago

      "I can get the same (and more) from Sess, Demps, Walters, Valencia who are all cheeper."

      This is only true since Jan '12 at the earliest, this wasnt true at the start of the season when Silva was being consistent....

      Thats the point!

      did you have sess, demps and valencia back then.... i doubt it

      Open Controls
  2. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
    5 years, 8 months ago

    pretty epic article

    i don't recognise the guy who wrote it though?

    Open Controls
    1. King Nil Miss ✩
      5 years, 8 months ago

      You should visit his blog, pretty good stuff!

      Open Controls
    2. MEZZ
      5 years, 8 months ago

      He's a famous actor.

      Open Controls
      1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
        5 years, 8 months ago

        i assume you are a radiohead fan? are you in the uk? are you as frustrated as me by the lack of gigs here??

        Open Controls
        1. MEZZ
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Patience DD. They're gonna play the UK when they're at their peak. Hopefully a few Irish dates, so I can spoil myself.

          Open Controls
          1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
            5 years, 8 months ago

            at their peak?!

            Open Controls
            1. MEZZ
              5 years, 8 months ago

              On the tour. They'll be super tight when they hit the UK.

              Open Controls
              1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                5 years, 8 months ago

                better not be some enormo-venues

                Open Controls
  3. Sheep Flavour
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Any Rooney news? Starting?

    Open Controls
  4. @FuzzyWarbles
    5 years, 8 months ago

    wrapping up the work week. time for fantasy CL madness!!! time for the derby!!!!

    COYS!!!

    Open Controls
    1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
      5 years, 8 months ago

      i want you to nail those gooners

      Open Controls
    2. Connster
      5 years, 8 months ago

      COYS...

      Open Controls
  5. JT's Dog
    5 years, 8 months ago

    can anyone tell me if cabaye is fit to play this week, just looking for short term mid and he looks best option, but haven't followed him to know why he missed last three games

    Open Controls
    1. JT's Dog
      5 years, 8 months ago

      anyone

      Open Controls
      1. MEZZ
        5 years, 8 months ago

        He's back...he was suspended for 3 games.

        Open Controls
        1. JT's Dog
          5 years, 8 months ago

          ty

          Open Controls
      1. JT's Dog
        5 years, 8 months ago

        ty also

        Open Controls
      2. JT's Dog
        5 years, 8 months ago

        nice work, your own?

        Open Controls
    2. Demba
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah he will start. He's been suspended the last 3 games - at home to a managerless wolves he looks a good choice.

      Open Controls
      1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
        5 years, 8 months ago

        they have a manager!

        Open Controls
        1. JT's Dog
          5 years, 8 months ago

          the wolves bit is good enough for me

          Open Controls
      2. JT's Dog
        5 years, 8 months ago

        ty once more

        Open Controls
  6. GoonerByron
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Who to start this week out of Sigurdsson and McClean??

    Open Controls
    1. MEZZ
      5 years, 8 months ago

      McClean

      Open Controls
      1. Incorrigible Brat
        5 years, 8 months ago

        mclean if u dont have sess
        siggy if u have sess.
        btw if u have sess and mclean, play mclean over sess.

        Open Controls
        1. 1966 was a great year for E…
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Nah, play Sess over McClean if you have both.

          Open Controls
  7. div
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Need to transfer Lidegaard and have 1.3 in the bank, 0.9 of which will be used for Rooney (depending he doesn't rise until Saturday night.

    Vorm is my other keeper, so Lindegaard >

    1. Schwarzer (rotates good, but already have Senderos)
    2. Mignolet (not great rotation but cheap and have no defence cover)
    3. Sorensen (rotation risk and have no defence cover)
    4. Other.

    Open Controls
    1. JT's Dog
      5 years, 8 months ago

      mig, more likely to get CS, forget rotation

      Open Controls
      1. div
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers for that, might just get him...

        Open Controls
  8. Coleman Feel The Moyes!
    5 years, 8 months ago

    4 point hit, 2 transfers,

    Current Team:

    Mig
    Richards Raylor Kelly
    Silva Bale Sess McClean
    RVP Bent Fletcher

    Subs: Sinclair, Shawcross, Williams.

    Fletch > Ba (C) obvs.

    5.3 with Sinclair making way

    I'm thinking Siggy, Cleverley, Scholesy or am open to any other suggestions?

    Open Controls
    1. Incorrigible Brat
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Siggy is the best option. And bent?? Don't see among the goals this week.

      Open Controls
      1. Coleman Feel The Moyes!
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Against Wigan? They're bottom of the league for a reason, IMO I think he'll bag, benching McClean pains me tho...lost 9 points last GW through that call.

        Open Controls
  9. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Group F? Lets be having you! 😀

    Europa League Group F Match day 1 Preview
    Well, here we have six-season veteran King Eric (5,805), an assiduous poster if ever there was, joined by Microcuts, Drinking Red Bull and the popular, if sarcastic, SSK Ginkvan, whose beautiful old grav I hope we will be seeing again soon! A very strong pool! Perhaps Cantona’s Crew will justify the arrogant cut of their collars, or be stampeded and creased by Kewell Runnings, both chased very hard by R-U-N-N-O-F-T. It will take all the cunning, skills and dirty tricks of Mutant Ninja Skrtels to upset this applecart!
    Slovan Bratislava (SSK Ginkvan) vs Athletic (Microcuts)
    A difficult match to call - the Artist vs the Athlete - both have Taiwo, and similar midfields.
    Injury / Team News:
    Slovan Bratislava - Already used his free transfer - has Valencia gone, or did he give Cahill the push? Evidence of a certain amount of Bandwagon hopping here.
    Athletic - Certain amount of panic evident here! Two transfers already made for a four point hit, making it four in a row! No injuries, apparently, although Richards may be doubtful.
    Predicted Line Ups
    Slovan Bratislava: Krul; Vermaelen, Richards, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Sessegnon; Zamora, Graham, van Persie
    Athletic: Vorm; Richards, Santon, Taiwo; Bale, Silva, Dempsey, Walters; Aguero, Ba, van Persie
    Match Verdict - Away win - forwards too strong.
    PSG (King Eric) vs Salzburg (Drinking Red Bull)
    Can Drinking Red Bull wipe the sneer off King Eric’s face?. Both have minor problems to solve, but I think experience and home advantage will turn this in King Eric’s favour
    Injury / Team News
    PSG - Two free transfers available - although as he has used only 19, they may not be necessary!
    Salzburg: After a huge leap of nearly a million places, game weeks 8 to18, R-U-N-N-O-F-T has tripped. Used his free transfer - did Valencia go?
    Predicted Line Ups
    PSG: Schwarzer; Kompany, Evans, Santon; Dempsey, Bale, Silva, Sigurdsson; Ba, Dzeko, van Persie
    Salzburg: Sorenson; Richards, Santon, Rangel; Bale, Dempsey, Ben Arfa, ❓ ; Zamora, Aguero, Van Persie
    Match Verdict - Home win

    Open Controls
    1. HappyAnkit
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Awesome Work Doos.
      I wonder who will do it for Group C.

      Open Controls
      1. Team Hayemaker
        5 years, 8 months ago

        these long posts about some random competetion are starting get annoying.

        Open Controls
        1. 1966 was a great year for E…
          5 years, 8 months ago

          You don't have to read them.

          Open Controls
          1. Team Hayemaker
            5 years, 8 months ago

            i dont read there crap, but they are bloody hard to ignore considering the length of them.

            Open Controls
            1. isacki: full casual
              5 years, 8 months ago

              OK let's give you some nice short RMT's. Oh wait, 10000 of them.

              Open Controls
            2. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              5 years, 8 months ago

              *their
              *this
              *that

              Open Controls
        2. JT's Dog
          5 years, 8 months ago

          u can buy a mouse with little wheel to scroll quicker, modern technology is amazing

          Open Controls
          1. Team Hayemaker
            5 years, 8 months ago

            shut up you tit

            Open Controls
            1. JT's Dog
              5 years, 8 months ago

              you will find i am none of the below so you are wrong again

              tit[tit]   Origin tit1    /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
              noun
              1. a titmouse.
              2. any of various other small birds.
              3. Archaic . a girl or young woman; hussy.
              4. Archaic . a small or poor horse; nag.

              Explore the Visual Thesaurus »Related Words for : tit
              bosom, breast, knocker, titmouse
              View more related words »

              Dictionary.com Unabridgedtit2    /tɪt/ Show Spelled[tit] Show IPA
              noun
              1. a teat.
              2. Slang: Vulgar . a breast

              Open Controls
              1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                5 years, 8 months ago

                i always thought you WERE a hussy?

                Open Controls
                1. JT's Dog
                  5 years, 8 months ago

                  damn, and i thought i got away with it, oh gaymaker you are right i am a tit

                  Open Controls
      2. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Not me! I have writer's cramp, writer's block - anything you like! 😉 I may well do three more next round, if you like ... 😉

        Open Controls
        1. HappyAnkit
          5 years, 8 months ago

          I would have done it myself but my exams are approaching.

          Open Controls
          1. JT's Dog
            5 years, 8 months ago

            exams, get your priorities in order man, where will exams get you nowdays

            Open Controls
        2. TLK42- Dutch Wolfhound
          5 years, 8 months ago

          yes you. finish the job you started. all groups each week

          Open Controls
          1. 1966 was a great year for E…
            5 years, 8 months ago

            No good deed goes unpunished, eh Doos 😉

            Open Controls
          2. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            5 years, 8 months ago

            😆 Not a chance - despite the backhanded compliment ... 🙂

            I never promised you a rose garden ... 😉

            Open Controls
            1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
              5 years, 8 months ago

              but you still smell as sweet

              Open Controls
              1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                5 years, 8 months ago

                😆 Compliment? 😯

                Open Controls
                1. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
                  5 years, 8 months ago

                  never

                  Open Controls
                  1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    5 years, 8 months ago

                    You may be awful - but I like you!!! 😀

                    Open Controls
                  2. udit
                    5 years, 8 months ago

                    😯 Compliment?

                    Open Controls
  10. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    anyone else temped by a Rooney and Welbeck double up from GW28?

    Am looking for a decent sub 6.5 million replacement for the Gerbil. Yak is inconsistent (though he is still an option), my main rival has Fletcher (who is injury prone) Morison seems to have lost his place. That leaves Holt, Graham and Welbeck as my other options.

    Open Controls
  11. Sheep Flavour
    5 years, 8 months ago

    With Rooney a doubt...DW a shout for a start Sat?

    Open Controls
    1. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Welbeck will start with or without Rooney, he is first choice now.

      Open Controls
      1. Loooser
        5 years, 8 months ago

        first choice? Even if Rooney fit and ready?

        Open Controls
        1. Sheep Flavour
          5 years, 8 months ago

          And with Han scoring yesterday can we really call Wellbeck first choice?

          Open Controls
          1. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            5 years, 8 months ago

            well wait and see who starts on Sat (as I think Rooney will) but even with Hernandez fit, Welbeck has been starting regularly in the PL.. Trust me I'm an OT Season Ticket holder, Welbeck is first choice.

            Open Controls
        2. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          5 years, 8 months ago

          yup Rooney and Welbeck is the first choice front 2 now. Hernandez is back in his role as super-sub.

          Open Controls
          1. Scroobius Mac
            5 years, 8 months ago

            Rubbish - complete codswallop.
            Stop presenting this as some sort of gospel fact when it patently isn't.
            Hernandez will start some games, Welbeck will start some games and quite possibly Berbatov will start some games. Even if Welbeck starts more than Hernandez it doesn't make him first choice.

            Open Controls
            1. Scroobius Mac
              5 years, 8 months ago

              Actually I'm confusing the terms first choice with nailed on.
              I tend to use two interchangeably - if you are suggesting that Welbeck is nailed on for the rest of the season (providing he's fit) then you are wrong. If you are suggesting that he will start more than Hernandez - you may be right.

              Open Controls
              1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                5 years, 8 months ago

                Well, I hope he bloody well starts the next two, and scores a few!!! 😉

                Open Controls
                1. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  5 years, 8 months ago

                  do you own him Doos?

                  See my post above 😛

                  Open Controls
                  1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    5 years, 8 months ago

                    I do, I do, I do, I do ...

                    Open Controls
              2. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                5 years, 8 months ago

                it is the 2nd of those 2, Like I said I'm at OT most weeks and so I understand Fergie's rotation policy better than most (this is why Rooney, Evans and Evra are the best United options IMO as they are nailed on. (and even if Evans isn't he's cheap enough not to worry.)

                Open Controls
            2. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              5 years, 8 months ago

              Hernandez has started 5 games whilst Welbeck has been fit, and 3 of those he played with him.

              Open Controls
              1. Hazardous Matarial
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                5 years, 8 months ago

                Couple of weeks ago Fergie admitted it was a mistake not starting Hernandez against Arsenal... Think Rooney is the only one nailed on up front...

                Open Controls
              2. isacki: full casual
                5 years, 8 months ago

                Real question is which proportion of matches has Welbeck started when he's fit?

                Open Controls
                1. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  5 years, 8 months ago

                  he has been fit for 19 games, he has started 15 of them the ones he didn't were Villa (when he was coming back and Hernandez got injured) Stoke away, Norwich and Newcastle away.

                  Open Controls
                  1. isacki: full casual
                    5 years, 8 months ago

                    Definitely right about first choice then. Nailed on no, but no-one is really with United apart from Evra.

                    I kept Welbeck for a few weeks a little while ago based on very similar reasoning, that Rooney and Welbeck were the preferred front two

                    Open Controls
  12. Loooser
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Vorm or Mignolet in the goal this GW?

    I have also Naylor, whom I will bench if Vorm plays. I am also worried since STO will be in a full strength.

    Open Controls
    1. Sheep Flavour
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Ming...WBA arent fantastic at home...

      Open Controls
      1. Loooser
        5 years, 8 months ago

        do you think that Crouch and Co. could score?

        If Vorm is out then I should play Naylor (to cover possible SWA CS), but i have Kmp, Santon and Evans in front of him.

        Open Controls
        1. Sheep Flavour
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Its up to you dude as its your team which is what I say to everyone but I think while Stoke might not win they will score one at least and WBA for me, scoring is less likely.

          Open Controls
        2. Loooser
          5 years, 8 months ago

          sure, but consulting friends makes it easier tosee other alternatives and possibilities. Especially for people like me, occasional players.

          Open Controls
          1. Sheep Flavour
            5 years, 8 months ago

            No thats cool, same as me 🙂

            Open Controls
  13. goon87
    5 years, 8 months ago

    RMT:

    Given (Vorm)
    Evans, Richards, Simpson (Kelly, BAE)
    Silva, Sess, Bale, Dempsey (Moses)
    Aguero, RVP, Graham

    I don't have the money for Ba but I can swap Graham>Welbeck.
    Thoughts please?

    Open Controls
  14. CatMac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Hello all. Seeing as there is a different crowd on here now, this is just to let you all now that Ankit has set up a Formula 1 fantasy team, details below. It's fairly straightforward to play so wont take up too much time and best of all it's free. So come and join us 🙂

    Site: http://fantasy.etana.co.za/f1fantasy/
    League Code: 16873178398881

    Open Controls
    1. JK - Grabbangladesh Manager…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      5 years, 8 months ago

      oh good did my team yesterday, was gonna ask about a league. Thanks dude.

      Open Controls
    2. Loooser
      5 years, 8 months ago

      it seems quite boring.... you basically pick the drivers and thats it.

      Open Controls
      1. Loooser
        5 years, 8 months ago

        or?

        Open Controls
    3. HappyAnkit
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers Catmac.

      Open Controls
    4. udit
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Catmac, you like my new grav? At least some one does 🙂 But I've changed it now, see how you like the new one, Oh and you support McClaren? tsk tsk 😉

      Open Controls
      1. HappyAnkit
        5 years, 8 months ago

        This one is better.
        I support Ferrari & You?
        BTW tsk tsk ❓

        Open Controls
        1. udit
          5 years, 8 months ago

          I used to support Ferrari like crazy when Schumacher and Raikonnen where there, now not so much, I support Schumacher, so Mercedes, tsk tsk for supporting McLosers.

          Open Controls
      2. CatMac
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 years, 8 months ago

        How many changes is that today? 😀

        Seriously though, I like that one, much more positive. And yes, I've been a McLaren supporter for years, although I think Force India could spring a few surprises this year 😐

        Open Controls
        1. udit
          5 years, 8 months ago

          4 I think 🙂

          Open Controls
    5. Gigging Order
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Thanks, will set up a team later and join

      Open Controls
    6. 1966 was a great year for E…
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Something else for people to get moody about 😉

      'Grrr, all these Europa League posts.' 😡
      'Grrr, all these F1 posts' 😡
      Grrr, all these cricket posts' 😡

      Open Controls
      1. udit
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Surprisingly enough I love all three 🙂 I hope I'm not the only one.

        Open Controls
      2. JT's Dog
        5 years, 8 months ago

        i love posts that have three grrrs in them

        Open Controls
        1. 1966 was a great year for E…
          5 years, 8 months ago

          If you imagine a fist being waved at the sky at the same time it's even better.

          Open Controls
    7. Incorrigible Brat
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Just joined the league!!!! 😀

      Open Controls
  15. markymark
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Richards declared fit for Blackburn game http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/17151322

    Open Controls
    1. In Like Flynn.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Booo!

      Open Controls
      1. JT's Dog
        5 years, 8 months ago

        booo you

        Open Controls
    2. Incorrigible Brat
      5 years, 8 months ago

      YES!!!

      Open Controls
  16. Kings of Lyon ★
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Will all this Europa league and champs league chat on here stop after this gw or is it here for the long haul?

    Open Controls
    1. isacki: full casual
      5 years, 8 months ago

      In absolute terms - no
      As a proportion of posts made on the board - absolutely

      Open Controls
      1. Kings of Lyon ★
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Hmmm I can deal with that. I'd happily look through 100 rmts. I don't care much for the history of slovan librec or who are the main rival of MyPa

        Open Controls
        1. JT's Dog
          5 years, 8 months ago

          now you have me wondering who the main rivals of MyPa are?

          Open Controls
    2. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      5 years, 8 months ago

      🙂 Right on 'til the end of the road! 😉

      Open Controls
      1. Kings of Lyon ★
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 years, 8 months ago

        I was afraid of that 🙁

        Open Controls
      2. Team Hayemaker
        5 years, 8 months ago

        you would think Doosra would spend a bit more time concentrating on his own team than writing about some random tourney but he seems happy with finshing up with a 6 figure score.

        Open Controls
        1. isacki: full casual
          5 years, 8 months ago

          It's called altruism mate, if you're not familiar with the word look it up.

          Open Controls
          1. udit
            5 years, 8 months ago

            Ha 😀 Perfect.

            Open Controls
          2. JT's Dog
            5 years, 8 months ago

            brill, that is first time altruism has ever been used in a put down

            Open Controls
        2. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
          5 years, 8 months ago

          LOL, sorry

          Open Controls
        3. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          5 years, 8 months ago

          *ranking

          Open Controls
        4. udit
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Tsk tsk, you really need to improve your spelling buddy.

          Open Controls
    3. In Like Flynn.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Is this another one you missed KoL?

      Open Controls
      1. Kings of Lyon ★
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 years, 8 months ago

        It ismate, hence the bitterness 😉 I don't even know who you are 🙁

        Open Controls
        1. In Like Flynn.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          5 years, 8 months ago

          In Like Flynn, Sorry. I may have to address that and stick ILF in there somewhere.

          Open Controls
          1. Kings of Lyon ★
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            5 years, 8 months ago

            Ahh okk, ill remember that 🙂 Hope you're well mate 🙂

            Open Controls
            1. In Like Flynn.
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              5 years, 8 months ago

              Yep, not three bad thanks KoL. Off to new post.

              Open Controls
  17. hunkydory
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Mignolet, Lindegaard
    Kompany, Evans, Simpson, Rangel, Kelly
    Dempsey, McClean, Valencia, Silva, Bale
    RvP, Ba, Aguero

    I have 2 FTs, 0.3 in bank. I'd like to dispose of Lindegaard & Rangel this week, but for whom?:

    A) Cahill & Bogdan
    B) Krul & Caulker

    Advice welcome!

    Open Controls
    1. Kings of Lyon ★
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A outta they two

      Open Controls
  18. div
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    RMT please

    Mignolet
    Richards, Evans, Raylor
    Silva, Sess, Dempsey, Bale
    RVP, Aguero(vc), Ba(c)

    Vorm, McClean, Rangel, Senderos

    Open Controls
    1. Loooser
      5 years, 8 months ago

      perfect. I am thinking Vorm or Mign myself. Shall I do Mign?

      Open Controls
      1. div
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        5 years, 8 months ago

        I just done it myself, great value and good chance of CS.

        Open Controls
  19. pjomara
    5 years, 8 months ago

    The article is very interesting but there are two flaws.
    1. Describing Spurs as having favourable fixtures on the horizon. No they don't, not until GW 31 by my reckoning.
    2. Seeing a high St. Dev as a negative thing, particularly with midfielders.
    Firstly, every player is going to get a good few 2s and 3s, so if you've a high st. dev. you're getting occasional high GW scores which is a good thing.
    Secondly, on investigating these high GW scores you might spot a trend for these high scoring GWs such as home games against anyone, and away games vs bottom 6 clubs , so you could play them for those games and drop them for the likely 2 pointers, thus giving you a much higher average overall.
    Thirdly, players like Silva that have played a part in every game so he has no 0s which helps him have a low st. dev. Nani and many others have missed a few games and so these 0s will raise their st. dev. and also reduce their mean score, however with them on your team you'll have a sub to come in so it's not like these 0s will reflect in a 0 on your team for the week.

    Open Controls
    1. ROBERTO MANKINI
      5 years, 8 months ago

      so 3 flaws you mean....

      Open Controls
    2. JT's Dog
      5 years, 8 months ago

      the graphs are nice to look at

      Open Controls
  20. Scroobius Mac
    5 years, 8 months ago

    NEW POST

    Open Controls
  21. isacki: full casual
    5 years, 8 months ago

    BBC

    1009:
    BREAKING NEWS
    Terry Connor has been named Wolves manager until the end of the season, the club have confirmed.

    OK IMO this is basically a white flag; if they really were going to make some effort to stay up they'd bring in an experienced pro. Will be targeting matches against Wolves from here on in, could be some real thrashings I think.

    Open Controls
    1. Wild Rover
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Nobody wants the job

      Open Controls
      1. isacki: full casual
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Come on now, that's a little unrealistic. A vacancy at a Premier League club not in acute financial distress and that have only recently dropped into the relegation zone?

        Open Controls
      2. pjomara
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Is Terry Connor, Emile Heskey's dad?

        Open Controls
    2. disparate dan - a reasonabl…
      5 years, 8 months ago

      it's nice to see a black guy getting the role with so few in management but they now won't get that much needed boost of having a new manager at the club

      they certainly will drop

      Open Controls
      1. isacki: full casual
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Definitely. Makes sacking Mick even more of an error IMO.

        Open Controls
        1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Not so much an error - more a catastrophe. Made the club look prattish, now.

          Open Controls
      2. Christina.
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Thks for the link to the"kick down the backdoor" post. I did not read it first time round and when the w*nker posted it again this morning I obviously missed all the replies.

        Open Controls
        1. isacki: full casual
          5 years, 8 months ago

          Intriguing... but not as intriguing/horrific as this grav... seriously, between you and Nino I really don't know which to retch to first

          Open Controls
          1. udit
            5 years, 8 months ago

            I think the telepathy machine is on again Isacki.

            Open Controls
          2. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            5 years, 8 months ago

            😆 Neat bit of abuse there!!! 😀

            Open Controls
          3. Christina.
            5 years, 8 months ago

            Well take it up with "I WAS THE ONLY ONE IN MY ML TO CAPTAIN DEMPSEY, ALSO HAD SORENSEN AS KEEPER"...he complained about me using a gravatar of my imaginary wife.

            Apparently it gave him a hard on. So I had to make a change.

            BTW, you are not an oil painting yourself...

            Open Controls
            1. isacki: full casual
              5 years, 8 months ago

              True that.

              Open Controls
              1. isacki: full casual
                5 years, 8 months ago

                *Sob*

                Open Controls
  22. Sheep Flavour
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Any news yet on the LFC V EFC DGW?

    Open Controls
  23. Shatner's Bassoon
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Great article, hope to see more like it. Always hard to picture the multiple variables on a 2D graph - price might have been an interesting third variable. Tempted to have a go at using a multivariate analysis method like PCA of PLS to see which stats on a player results in highest point turnover. perhaps a job for next season.

    Open Controls
  24. steveb79
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Should I keep this starting line up or bring anyone in off of the bench??

    Krul
    Cahill – Kompany (V) – Santon
    Bale – Sessignon – Yaya – Dempsey
    RVP – Aguero (C) – P Cisse

    Vorm – Cleverley – N Taylor – Enrique

    Open Controls
  25. Twisted Saltergater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    5 years, 8 months ago

    A quite brilliant article, right up my street! Cheers Chris.

    Open Controls
    1. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
      5 years, 8 months ago

      +1, excellent read

      Open Controls
  26. Croco
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Any reason of not getting Pilkington? Norwich's fixtures seems ok after playing against Man utd

    Open Controls
    1. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Rotation always a risk with Lambert

      Open Controls
  27. Stern John Terry Wilson Pal…
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Is the general consensus that Samba will not be included in the Blackburn squad to face Man City? If so, think I will go Aguero (C) over Ba. It worked last time I captained a striker against Blackburn ...

    Open Controls
  28. Back on the horse - Gabonia…
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Good article, I like it.

    I didn't read it all because it was too long and I haven't taken notice of anything in it because I like to go with my gut in FPL... but I liked it in principle

    Open Controls