Euro 2012 Team Analysis – Germany

Our analysis of next month’s Euro 2012 tournament in Poland and Ukraine continues with a look at Group B. Having run the rule over Denmark’s Fantasy assets yesterday, it’s time to turn our attentions to one of the favourites to take the trophy – Germany.

Joachim Low’s men get their campaign underway on Saturday June 9, the second day of the tournament, with a 7.45pm kick-off against Portugal. Next up is a clash with Holland four days later – once again, Germany have an evening match here – before they square up to Denmark in their final group match, at 7.45pm on Sunday June 17.

While Denmark are considered the weakest link in what looks the toughest group of all, Morten Olsen’s men finished above Portugal in qualifying, with six wins and just a single defeat in eight matches. A second place finish mean the Portuguese had to see off Bosnia Herzegovina 6-2 in the play-offs, while Holland topped their group with nine wins and 37 goals in 10 games.

The Road to Qualification

Germany arrive as one of only two teams – along with Spain – to win all of their qualifying matches; Low’s side ran way with their six-team group, with second placed Turkey finishing 13 points adrift of top spot. A consistently reliable source of goals, they found the net at least three times in eight of their showdowns and racking up a total of 34 goals. At the back, while they shipped just seven goals, their attacking forays made them susceptible to the counter – they failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and chalked up just four in total.

Most Appearances: Neuer, Lahm, Muller (10), Ozil, Podolski, Badstuber (9), Kroos, Khedira (8)

Top Goalscorer: Klose (9), Gomez (6), Ozil (5), Podolski, Muller, Schurrle (3)

Top Assists: Ozil (7), Muller (5), Podolski (3)

The Likely Lads

In spite of a 10.0 price tag, it’s no real surprise to see Mesut Ozil as the most popular German player so far in the McDonalds game, with 26.3% ownership. Playing in the hole in a 4-2-3-1, Ozil flourished in the qualifying campaign – he was top for assists, with seven, and also found the net five times, playing a role in more of Germany’s goals than any other playing. The Real Madrid man also takes the majority of set-pieces and arrives in strong form, with four goals and 17 assists in the previous La Liga campaign.

Although the talents of Toni Kroos, Marco Reus and Mario Gotze offer cheaper routes into the midfield area, not one of the trio is likely to cement a role in Low’s first XI, with game time off the bench more likely. Bastian Schweinsteiger, on the other hand, is a nailed-on option in the central midfield double-pivot and, priced at 9.0, offers a cheaper alternative to Ozil. Schweinsteiger’s goal threat is highlighted by 23 goals in 90 appearances for the national side – he also stepped up for Germany’s last spot-kick, in a 3-1 win in Turkey, though his confidence will now doubt have taken a dip after Saturday’s miss in the Champions League Final defeat against Chelsea.

With uncertainty surrounding the lone frontman role, Thomas Muller and Lukas Podolski both offer the security of starts on the right and left of the attacking midfield three respectively. While some may be deterred by their classification as forwards, Germany’s attacking potential meant the pair still picked up plenty returns in qualifying – they grabbed three goals apiece, though Muller edged it for assists by five to three. Priced at 9.5 to Podolski’s 10.0, Muller is kinder on the budget and, with just 6.1% ownership, in addition to two goals in the last three friendlies, may appeal to those scouring the market for differentials.

Cheeky Punt

With just four clean sheets accrued over their ten group games and a host of other sides offering strong cut-price alternatives at the back, it’s hard to be overly enthused with regards to Germany’s costly defensive options. At 8.0, Philipp Lahm is the joint most expensive defender in the McDonalds game and despite his occasional corner kicks, he failed to score in qualifying and has had a disappointing domestic campaign with Bayern, providing just three assists for the Bundesliga runners-up. For those intent on snapping up one of Germany’s backline, Jerome Boateng comes in at 6.5, far easier on the budget than Lahm, and looks to have made the right-back slot his own.

If any one of Miroslav Klose or Mario Gomez can make the lone forward role their own, the potential for points looks substantial. Problem is, there’s so much uncertainty over their game time that snapping up either of the pair’s services looks nothing more than a punt at present. Both have alternated up front over Germany’s last six, with three starts apiece and, priced at 11.5, are surely too much budget to gamble on – the upcoming friendlies against Switzerland and Israel may offer more clarity on the situation. Klose certainly offers the better chance of a differential – at present he has just 1.8% ownership to Gomez’s 14.3%, despite scoring nine goals in qualifying to the latter’s six.

Further Analysis

Group A Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, Russia
Group B Denmark