Great Expectations

Great Expectations – Shinji Kagawa

Arriving from Borussia Dortmund early last summer, Shinji Kagawa looked primed to become a key midfield target for the 2012/13 season. Having helped steer Jurgen Klopp’s side to the title in his final year in the Bundesliga, the Japan international’s displays in the role in “the hole” suggested United were set to shift formation to 4-2-3-1 and hand him a place behind Wayne Rooney as Sir Alex Ferguson attempted to wrestle the title back from City:

Three days before their Gameweek 1 opener at Everton, however, the acquisition of Robin Van Persie turned the Fantasy landscape on its head and made a significant dent in Kagawa’s prospects. While the Dutchman ran riot and grabbed the goals that recaptured the crown, the former Dortmund man struggled to settle in his debut season, with a knee injury and occasional game time on the left flank limiting his potential in what proved to be Ferguson’s final term in charge at Old Trafford.

Key Factors

  • Wayne Rooney’s decision to hand in a transfer request towards the end of last season looks key to Kagawa’s prospects. Omitted from the United squad for the final couple of league games under Ferguson, Rooney seems determined to leave after a lacklustre campaign – having dropped deeper to accommodate Van Persie, his possible departure would free up Kagawa’s preferred position in “the hole” and afford him the chance to slot in behind Van Persie.

  • New manager David Moyes’ penchant for a lone striker system may also be advantageous. While it’s all too early to ascertain just what sort of formation the former Everton boss has in mind as he takes the Old Trafford reins, his use of Marouane Fellaini as the most advanced central midfielder last term was hugely beneficial to Fantasy managers. Providing Rooney leaves, Kagawa’s playmaking abilities seem the natural fit amongst United’s current midfield crop – given that he produced 13 goals and eight assists from 31 appearances in his final year at Dortmund, his suitability to the role is more than apparent.

  • Having finished last season with just six goals and four assists over 20 appearances, it’s possible that Kagawa is in line for a slight drop in price next time out. Starting last season at 8.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), he racked up just 87 points and can resultantly be expected to slip to around 8.0 when the player lists are revealed next month. Given that previous mid-price options such as Fellaini, Michu and Kevin Nolan are set for a hefty price hike after their respective displays in a similar position, the Japan international could prove to be a little more budget friendly when assessing the midfield landscape.

  • Kagawa’s hat-trick and 21 point FPL against Norwich in Gameweek 28 highlights his capabilities. Granted, six goals over 1,314 minutes was far from impressive but compared to United’s other midfielders, it’s positively prolific – Nani and Antonio Valencia both notched one goal apiece, while Ashley Young failed to find the net at all last season. New boy Wilfried Zaha also offers an option but after a campaign where Michael Carrick was United’s highest scoring midfielder with a mere 101 FPL points, Kagawa could be primed to become a key player as the Moyes era gets underway.

1,299 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Dr Wakey Le Coq
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    3 years, 10 days ago

    As the "Is RVP worth it" debate keeps cropping up..here's my thoughts...I never had RVP all season last year...but i did have Benteke from day one..From 15 dec onwards Benteke was the best striker in the prem (16 goals to season end as oppose to RVP's 15 goals and Bale's 15 goals). Benteke was by a country mile the best value striker from mid season onwards...but...RVP's fixtures always looked better and he was totally consistent and so was an easy capt pick for everybody who owned him....I rarely captd Benteke because his fixtures always drove me elsewhere and so as far as FPL goes RVP was twice as good a pick as Benteke (?)...In addition RVP was rarely sensational last season, in terms of big goals hauls, scoring more than one goal on only three occasions...less than Rooney...less than Suarez...less than Michu...less than Lukaku..etc...and the same as Benteke... but he was always consistent with his goal a game,and again because of that an easy capt pick....By seasons end only 8% of teams had Benteke despite the fact he was outscoring RVP and was only half the price, so if only 8% had enough faith to buy the best budget striker in the game how low would the percentage be of people prepared to capt him be (or many of the other budget strikers) ? Final point is that, whether rightly or wrongly, the game is set up to reward clinical strikers with BAPS...so for the record...RVP attained 3 baps on 13 occasions last season as oppose to only four occasins for Benteke, So the real question isn't "is RVP worth 13-14 mil", the answer to that is no...what we should ask is "Is a reliable FPL capt pick worth 13-14 mill".... clearly after my experience of owning Benteke all last season the answer is yes...

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    1. Sheep
        3 years, 10 days ago

        You're probably right. But just to be devils advocate: http://www.bettingexpert.com/assets/images/blog/MarkTaylor/GoalScoringAge.jpg

        RVP will be 30 when the EPL starts.

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        1. Dr Wakey Le Coq
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 years, 10 days ago

          yeah..all a bit long winded but that's how it was...I'm still not getting him though (RVP)..

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        2. Dr Wakey Le Coq
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          3 years, 10 days ago

          and great graph btw...keeping that...

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          1. Sheep
              3 years, 10 days ago

              Stole it from this article: http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/age-performance-football

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          2. Ginkapo
              3 years, 10 days ago

              If you fit a distribution to that then the drop from 29 to 30 is about the same as from 28 to 29. Which in RVP's case is none.

              That said I take your point.

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          3. The3rdTurd
              3 years, 10 days ago

              Benteke was suspended for the last game of the season, he was on about 16% ownership before he got himself sent off.

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              1. Dr Wakey Le Coq
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                3 years, 10 days ago

                was he...thought it was low at 8%...but even 16% is ridiculously low for a player notching at a better rate than RVP and for the thick end of six months...

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                1. The3rdTurd
                    3 years, 10 days ago

                    Yes, at the halfway point of the season, Benteke's ownership was just 3.7%. I think this reflects the fact that he was unproven talent coming into the season and RVP was FPL aristocracy. Given the number of casuals playing the game, their relative ownership shouldn't be a surprise.

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              2. charlie1X
                  3 years, 10 days ago

                  In OOP Bale is as fixture proof as van Persie.

                  On the left he used to use the space on the counter away from home more profitably than with home fixtures; But this bias has gone now.

                  Result: RVP is surplus to requirements as far as consistent captain choices is concerned.

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                  1. Dr Wakey Le Coq
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    3 years, 10 days ago

                    Yeah of course my argument for RVP/Benteke applies equally to Bale/Benteke...The real point i'm making is the danger of wallowing around amongst excellent but less consistent players when it comes to capt choices...RVP playing for United against any team is far more enticing than Benteke against any team....so i was always reluctant to capt him whilst RVP owners just carried on regardless...

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                    1. charlie1X
                        3 years, 10 days ago

                        You certainly need one fixture proof captain choice to avoid unnecessary hits, but Bale is sufficient.

                        I get your Benteke concern. Although he and Lukaku had fantastic conversion rates from SiB
                        how can you be sure they will get the requisite service in tough games?

                        Fact is you can comfortably afford 3 strikers of your choice and Bale if you forego RVP and have a Ubercheap defence. Given the starting fixtures this and Chelsea exposure seems the logical way to go.

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                        1. Dr Wakey Le Coq
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          3 years, 10 days ago

                          I had Lukaku as well all season and Mirallas...I like to find some newbies...It all comes at a price though...Good and reliable capt picks...!!

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                      • 1966 was a great year for E…
                          3 years, 10 days ago

                          But how long did it take to realise Benteke was a reliable (c) choice? Probably at least halfway through his run from 15 December. With proven performers there's much less risk.

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                          1. Dr Wakey Le Coq
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            3 years, 10 days ago

                            I never did....that's my point. There was always what appeared better picks but in reality Benteke, just like RVP, was a good solid reliable capt pick...I never had the nerve to capt him very often despite him scoring all those goals...In the same way that an awful lot of people didn't even pick him despite scoring all those goals...RVP playing up front for United is an easy capt pick and i would have cashed in with far more pts had i gone for him over a better value player who actually outscored him in goals (from Dec 15)...

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                    2. Dowson51
                        3 years, 10 days ago

                        I guess it depends what else is available with the funds that not having RVP would free up. If a load of cheap def and mid are doing well then everyone can afford to have RVP in, but the tricky part is when all the other pricey options are doing really well, as chances are you wont be able to have Bale, Higuain, Cavani, Aguero, Isco, Coutinho, etc.

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                      • Sheep
                          3 years, 10 days ago

                          If you're talented at picking captains, RVP will be redundant for you. So if you want to go for gold in this game, going without may be a good idea.

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                          1. Dr Wakey Le Coq
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            3 years, 10 days ago

                            Aye...but i'm not...i did OK but that's about it...With RVP in your team you didn't need much talent at capt picks last season...If anybody was unsure they stuck it on him anyway...

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                        • Sheep
                            3 years, 10 days ago

                            Stingy upvoters are stingy :)

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                          • JohnRoss
                              3 years, 10 days ago

                              Yes

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                            • pposter1
                                2 years, 10 months ago

                                so who do you see the best forward option then wakey?

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                              • pposter1
                                  2 years, 10 months ago

                                  Hey Wakey, I bet if you do an analysis of RVP (+ captain) vs. Benteke (+ who ever your captain was) I think you'll find RVP is worth having. have you done this yet?

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                              • Count of Monte Hristo
                                  3 years, 10 days ago

                                  Southampton are loving Celtic players.

                                  Boruc, Fox, Wanyama.

                                  Keep your hands off Hooper.

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                                  1. Joga Bonito®
                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                    Wanyama is Q U A L I T Y

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                                  2. New Ghost
                                      3 years, 10 days ago

                                      Nah, Southampton FC are loving Sergio Ramos and Thiago Silva. :)

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                                    • Manani
                                        3 years, 10 days ago

                                        Celtic can win the SPL will their sub anyway.
                                        and they are not good enough for CL, so I don't see any difference 😆

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                                        1. Count of Monte Hristo
                                            3 years, 10 days ago

                                            We were good enough to get to the knockout stages of the CL last season and beat Barca. I'd like to see the majority of the PL teams do that.

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                                      • Count of Monte Hristo
                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                          Snake Juice

                                          New Slum Village album out next week. Still got that Dilla sound.

                                          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdSddSbPLhI

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                                          1. New Ghost
                                              3 years, 10 days ago

                                              Next week? Cheers for the heads up man.

                                              Dilla sound indeed. I'm liking this.

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                                              1. Count of Monte Hristo
                                                  3 years, 10 days ago

                                                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution_(Slum_Village_album)

                                                  Scheduled for next week. Yeah it's a nice track.

                                                  One of my favourites Dilla tracks - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqylSGpyhOI

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                                                  1. New Ghost
                                                      3 years, 10 days ago

                                                      Players! One of my Dilla faves: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hZKN4AZ63g

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                                                      1. Count of Monte Hristo
                                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                                          Incredible track mate. Timeless!

                                                          And this

                                                          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s732BigTxZk

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                                                • OrmskirkFC
                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                    Taking a look at my FPL rankings since I started playing:

                                                    2009/10- 809,081 (when I had Michael Owen as my captain, because I liked him)
                                                    2010/11- 76.649 (when I actually started trying)
                                                    2011/12- 55,203
                                                    2012/13- 44,862

                                                    So it looks like anyone who actually tries at this game should make top 100,000 pretty easily, but climbing up from there is quite difficult.

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                                                    1. Surfreak
                                                        3 years, 10 days ago

                                                        Position Name ID Pos 11-12 Pos 10-11 Pos 09-10 Pos 08-09 Pos 07-08 Pos 06-07 HoF Rating
                                                        2611 David Humphries 41328 481747 8020 7028 82065 NA NA 87.98

                                                        You have good and bad years, top 2000 this year :)

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                                                      • JohnRoss
                                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                                          Too true. Not too hard to break top 10k.

                                                          After that....well, you're a genius or a fool.

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                                                        • Surfreak
                                                            3 years, 10 days ago

                                                            Your progress Orm is heading in the right direction, top 30k this year fer sure.

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                                                            1. OrmskirkFC
                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                Thanks, that will be my goal!

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                                                            2. Lawro
                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                2011/12 - 251,522
                                                                2012/13 - 3164
                                                                2013/14 - 1

                                                                😎

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                                                            3. kroky
                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                hello

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                                                                1. Sheep
                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                    baa

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                                                                    1. kroky
                                                                        3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                        meeow

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                                                                  • MB10
                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                    Can I ask why people on this site hate RMT's so much?

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                                                                    1. Dowson51
                                                                        3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                        They don't want you giving their secrets away...

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                                                                      • 1966 was a great year for E…
                                                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                          Frequency and volume.

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                                                                          1. kroky
                                                                              3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                              +1

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                                                                            • Dowson51
                                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                Plus it's just annoying speculation at the moment when people fill up their teams with players who have yet to sign and have no ideal of the valuations...

                                                                                RMT

                                                                                Schmeichel Westwood
                                                                                Rami Olsson Ramis Demel Pjanic
                                                                                Thiago Ronaldo Isco Gomis Fer
                                                                                Higuain Cavani Lewandowski

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                                                                            • Sheep
                                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                Because we don't have prices yet, and some people will jump on an excuse to have a good moan :)

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                                                                                1. MB10
                                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                  3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                  But even when the prices do come out people still don't like them

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                                                                              • Chu Young Ping Pong
                                                                                  3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                  baaaa

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                                                                                • JohnRoss
                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                    The real reason is uncertainty about their own selection when bombarded with alternatives. The good players dont even notice them. I do....

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                                                                                  • New Ghost
                                                                                      3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                      It's not the RMT per se that ticks people off; in fact it's one of the most fundamental posts contained in a fantasy football forum.

                                                                                      It's the flood of RMT's during certain times of the season that gets on people's nerves. Like 1966 said, frequency and volume.

                                                                                      I don't mind them actually. Some individuals simply want feedback on their squads.

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                                                                                      1. MB10
                                                                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                        3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                        Agree with you on that. I don't mind them either and an outside view of a team can be very helpful at times.

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                                                                                      2. 1966 was a great year for E…
                                                                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                          I don't mind them either :)

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                                                                                      3. Ginkapo
                                                                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                          I object to RMT's because they lack affort from the poster. To write out your team and simply ask for a rating takes no thought whatsoever.

                                                                                          Breaking down your dilemna into a A or B question takes thought and effort and shows that the poster actually cares.

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                                                                                        • The3rdTurd
                                                                                            3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                            Because people expect others to pick their team for them, often without giving anything back.
                                                                                            Because people don't bother to think for themselves
                                                                                            Because it spams the site and crowds out more worthwhile discussion.
                                                                                            Because it creates groupthink
                                                                                            Because it usually generates far less meaningful discussion than people claim it does.

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                                                                                            1. Saniul
                                                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                I think HC will prevent No 3 from happening this season.

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                                                                                                1. The3rdTurd
                                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                    Yes, one of the benefits of HC.

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                                                                                                2. New Ghost
                                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                    An RMT basically asks for surface-level feedback from knowledgeable players. Then issues and dilemmas concerning the squad are hashed out once a discussion gets going.

                                                                                                    The primary concern here is the give-and-take factor; usually random RMT-ers merely ask for feedback without proving any help towards others.

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                                                                                                    1. Holy Irish See!
                                                                                                        3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                        & some folk post the same team over and over again. And again. A separate RMT article for those interested in posting one would help somewhat. If that kind of thing were possible. Probably some simple solution somewhere.

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                                                                                                        1. MB10
                                                                                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                          Agree there should be an article or section of the website just for RMT's. Another Tab along side 'Members' , 'HOF' etc at the top would be handy

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                                                                                                3. Saint-Dutchie
                                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                    Anybody got the link to the rotation spreadsheet?

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                                                                                                      1. Saint-Dutchie
                                                                                                          3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                          Great thanks!

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                                                                                                    1. Ginkapo
                                                                                                        3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                        What if they classify Bale as a forward? 😯

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                                                                                                        1. Spineless O'Weasel - #…
                                                                                                            3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                            Oh geez, don't be saying stuff like that, you'll send this place into permanent meltdown

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                                                                                                          • Chu Young Ping Pong
                                                                                                              3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                              Can't see that happening.

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                                                                                                            • Saniul
                                                                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                                Walcott has a slight chance of being classified as a forward, not Bale.

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                                                                                                                1. ronty
                                                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                                    the opposite in-fact

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                                                                                                              • Niel
                                                                                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                                                3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knNQV-1V1-g

                                                                                                                I think he will be a bigger legend than Leo or CR7.

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                                                                                                                1. Holy Irish See!
                                                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                                    Charles Njurdia.

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                                                                                                                  • Adam West
                                                                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                                    At least Mikel is staying

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                                                                                                                2. Legend-wait 42 it-dary!
                                                                                                                    3 years, 10 days ago

                                                                                                                    So what happens to either Reina or Mignolet with the pending medical? Who will be number 1? Is Reina purported to be leaving Anfield?

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                                                                                                                  • GarethBale
                                                                                                                      2 years, 11 months ago

                                                                                                                      da

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