The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 37

There was a common belief that good Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers don’t take hits. A few season’s back, our own Pure Olivia crunched some huge numbers and his findings were pretty conclusive – the top-placed managers rarely sacrificed points for extra transfers. This season, that theory has been somewhat shattered.

In recent weeks I’ve seen well-targeted hits do the business – highlighted by the very top-ranked managers in the game. Those who listened in on our recent ScoutCast will know that former FPL number one, Luke Weston, was rather partial to punting points on an extra trade: over the season he’s taken a 4-point hit on 17 occasions and an 8-point hit twice. Those staggering numbers laugh in the face of previous research: Luke transformed the 4-point hit into a key weapon in his superb FPL season. Ironically, last weekend, he had it turned on him.

The new number one, Tom Fenley, ousted Luke at the top in Gameweek 36 with the help of his own 8-point gamble. Having resisted hits since Gameweek 20, Tom swooped for Wayne Rooney, Aaron Ramsey and Laurent Koscielny. The move for the latter proved pivotal – Koscielny gave Tom a differential and the Frenchman’s 13 points helped him climb to the FPL summit. Tom could have easily stopped at Rooney and Ramsey and covered Luke’s transfers but his swoop for Koscielny made the difference – his decision to spend those extra four points could ultimately win him the FPL crown.

It’s been a similar story closer to home. While my suffering season has never got close to hitting the heights of Luke and Tom’s, I’ve joined them in throwing points at transfers and enjoyed decent results. I’ve spent 16 points in the last three Gameweeks and jumped from 380k to 210k. Keep that momentum and I may yet rescue the relative respectability of a 100k finish.

Significantly, prior to Gameweek 34 I’d taken hits on just three occasions. I made a conscious decision not to “waste points” ahead of this campaign and, in many ways, this has cost me.

Points hits allow us to quickly adjust to form, invest in those players that have emerged as strong targets and acquire them before their rising price becomes a barrier. This season, such a tactic has been more effective than ever; as I’ve mentioned many times, the form players have often maintained strong returns for lengthy periods. Aaron Ramsey, Yaya Toure, Luis Suarez, Daniel Sturridge – they’ve had dry patches but, when fit, they’ve delivered strongly and with surprising consistency. This has been compounded by the lack of new differentials – I avoided Ramsey and Toure in hope that new names in midfield would emerge – they never really arrived.

Now, with just two Gameweeks remaining, we find ourselves pondering a double Gameweek with Wayne Rooney a real doubt as a participant. The scenario is perfectly set up for a flurry of Saturday morning transfers and points hits. The decisions at the very top of the FPL will be crucial, the outcome fascinating.

It appears that what was once a taboo, a golden rule or “commandment” of playing FPL, has suddenly been flipped on its head. The points hit has become accepted and hugely effective tactic. This Fantasy manager has been forced to have a rethink.