The Projections and Rate My Team tool were both updated in our Members Area earlier this week. Our members can now get access to these areas via the menu bar and start putting both to use in their pre-season selections.
Once again this season, the projections are based on the Rate My Team statistical model, developed by “Professor” Chris Atkinson, who some of you may remember as a guest on the ScoutCast.
Below you’ll find an FAQ on our Projections and Rate My Team, plus links to movies recorded last year with Chris that talk you through the functionality of Rate My Team and even the methods that go into building and maintaining it week on week.
How do I use the Projections?
Crucially, these tables can be used as another opinion-former when comparing players. Every player is rated for goals, assists, clean sheets etc based on values created by the “Rate My Team” statistical model – the values returned for each player are the expected values in accordance with its calculations.
A good way of thinking about them is to consider them average values for each player. If the season was played out 500 times, the values you’ll find in these projection tables are the average that the model would expect the player to score.
One of the most useful aspects of the Projections is the value column. You can sort by this to find the best value (Points Per FPL Million) delivered by players in each position.
With tables for the season and the opening six Gameweeks, you can get a view on long-term and short-term returns and value.
What are these values based on?
The Rate My Team statistical model is a complex beast – it uses historical data stretching back a number of seasons and, of course, specific player and team data. When generating the player values, the model looks at the specific fixture in each Gameweek, assessing the strength of both teams before calculating the likely team goals scored and how these goals will translate to specific player stats. The probability of a player taking part in the match is also a key ingredient – factors such as rotation, injuries and suspensions are taken into account. You’ll find out more on how Rate My Team works in the third movie due out in the next few days.
When will these Projections be updated?
It’s likely that we’ll update the projections at least every other day up until the season kick-off. As we get more data on likely first choice lineups and as the transfer market moves to cast doubt over starters, we will adapt and tweak the model accordingly. A new player, particularly if we anticipate they will threaten a starting role, can have a major impact on the projections and Rate My Team, influencing the projected output of his new team-mates.
The projections will also be updated throughout the season, providing a week by week view of what the model expects each player to score for the remaining Gameweeks to help guide your selections and transfers. We normally update on both Tuesday and Friday in order to build the latest team news into the numbers.
What is Rate My Team?
Rate My team is a statistical model built specifically to assess every player in the Premier League and return their expected values for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points in a given Gameweek. The system is a complex and thorough one which, of course, plots the probabilities of a player’s time on the pitch, their expected number of goals, assists, bonus points, yellow and red cards, clean sheets, own goals, goals conceded and saves. The strength of the opponent they are facing in a given Gameweek is also crucial; so every team has an attacking, defensive rating, every player a probability of playing a given match with injuries, suspensions and international absence factored in.
How Can It Help Me?
If you’re a member you can use the Rate My Team tool in a number of ways. Firstly, you can use it as a projections tool to predict what specific players will score, on average, over the next X number of Gameweeks. As you’ll see in the movie below, you have a players table that can be filtered by position or FPL cost and which can be extended to show any number of Gameweeks. You can also sort on “Value” to find those players projected to offer the best points per million return.
However, this is just one part of the functionality. Once the season starts, Rate My Team can also analyse your existing FPL lineup, recommend captains, vice captains, your bench and order of substitutes and allow you to model your future transfers. In the second “My Team” movie below, you can preview this functionality in full.
Rather than post your team in the comments on the main site, our members can now enter their FPL code in Rate My Team and it will immediately offer you an appraisal of your squad. Using Rate my Team you can transfer players in and out of your squad and get an immediate appraisal of the impact of that transfer.
Rate my Team was used extensively by last season’s Fantasy Premier League winner, Tom Fenley. Next week he’ll be posting a two-part article guiding you on how he set about using the tool and other members’ area features to help him over his triumphant season.
Memberships for the coming season, giving you access to both the projections and Rate My Team tool, along with many other features, are available for the pre-season price of £12.50. Click here for further details, including an array of preview movies to demonstrate what’s on offer.
Projections & Rate My Team Preview
The Build My Team Feature
Rate My Team – Under the Hood
9 years, 9 months ago15 games 15 goals vs Arsenal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grjzY3_3Pjk
Wenger must be sleeping well 😉