With Gameweek 1 concluded, it’s time to delve a little deeper into the data in our first “Big Numbers” article for members of the campaign. We analyse the display of Arsenal’s new wide man against Palace, the QPR front pairing at home to Hull, Liverpool’s ever-improving youngster, Southampton’s delivery under Ronald Koeman and United’s weekend scorer in the 2-1 home loss to Swansea.
Top of the page too.
From world number 60 to activated wildcard from week 1
SuicidalOpen Controls
On Activating the WC I only have this for you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAKG-kbKeIoOpen Controls
I'm currently sitting on Rooney - Sturridge - Costa, and my midfields a bit too weak. I'd rather 3 premium midfielders. I would say 4 but Sigurdsson's value is too good.
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Just had a look at your squad, think you jumped the gun there activating your WC
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Good timing! see below. If on WC I would prob start this week with Rooney/Costa and one other up there with enough cash to get rid of the other after this GW, give you a chance to asses Aguro
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That's the million $ question.
3 from Costa/Sturr/Roon/Kun...and of course Rvp...
😉Open Controls
I think it's a good call to play your wildcard I've done the same with a similar team and came 881 last year! I'm going with Costa and Rooney plus a cheapy upfront as so much value in midfield and Kun is made of glass. I've made 0.5 million overnight 🙂
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Just messing around with a Rooney/Costa/Aguero front line. Got this-
Bego/4.5
Kelly/Clyne/Hutton/NTalylor/4.0
Sterling/Fabregas/Ramsey/JWP/Marney
Rooney/Costa/Aguero
Obviously not going to do it now but it no totally horrendous is it?Open ControlsI wouldn't want that team.
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Anyone know if De Jong will play AV??
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If I have 2 FTs for GW3, and use one on GW3, then I WC in game week 4, will I still have two FTs in GW5????
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My take on the Mata debate
http://whichtransfer.wordpress.comOpen Controls
He surely can't be judged with one game?
Open Controlsi think it making a judgement on Man U and comparing it to Chelsea plus taking into consideration price rises and fall. It complex for sure!
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Good read Trigg.
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Replied.
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+1, more or less summarizes the dilemma of Mata owners
Open ControlsGw3-5
mata plays all three promoted sides, while Cesc has Everton and ManCity awayOpen Controlsnice write up. I sold and got Fab. Like you said easier for you if you didnt have Fab. Those .1 drops are going to be even more important to avoid this year imo with the threshold for rises seeming to be higher.
Your situation is a gamble, the price drop if nothing away to Sunderland will be bad. In 'real' fooball terms i saw nothing to suggest that Man U will be better this week. They were not unlucky, just bad.Open ControlsManU was one of the teams with the highest number of goal attempts this GW
Open ControlsYes, they are being prematurely written off. I think they underestimated Swansea and were lulled into a false sense of security by their good pre season.
Or maybe it was us who were lulled into the false sense of securityOpen Controlswrote a load on this yest Trig, will post on your article page
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Good write up.
I like it when you say:
Every .1 that is lost takes a .2 rise to recover.
As we can see from the siggy situation, even with such a large number of NTI he still doesn't go up 0.2 this week.
So every 0.1 you drop will take likely two weeks to recover, at best!Open Controls
Looking at the latest price changes, we have an indication that TFPL and FISO might be correct to within about 7% for price drops on unflagged players. Zarate was just under 107% shortly before the drop.
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Barkley was well over 200% before dropping.
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He was flagged
Open ControlsRed-flag just means a different formula - these players still fall at 100%. They haven't got it right yet.
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TotalFPL hasn't got the formula yet.
Siggy didn't rise despite being at +209%
Naughton didn't fall at -129% (red-flagged)
This is normal at this time of year, but suggests that rises will be slower than we expected - note Fabregas owners looking for the 2nd rise.Open Controls
was just wondering this as well anyone got any info
Open ControlsIndeed. It was ever thus. Fiso a bit better than normal, this year.
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Naughton is red flagged
Open ControlsFabregas will get the second price increase.
Open ControlsWe really have no idea. No other player has reached the threshold yet. Maybe FPL have set a higher bar to a 2nd rise this year. Siggy is at 200% and hasn't risen again.
Open ControlsWe do have some idea from previous seasons. When the Friday transfers flood in, Fabregas will reach whatever target FPL have set - unless they've just broken the game (which I doubt)
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Welbeck, Puncheon, Shaw and Rosenior didn't fall either and they were all in the drop zone on TFPL - but they were also all flagged. Zarate looks the best guide for unflagged players so far. See above. 🙂
FISO does appear to be taking flags into account. None of those flagged players mentioned were in the drop zone there, but the three who did fall were.Open ControlsThanks - I haven't really looked at FISO
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How likely do we think Arsenal is to get a clean sheet away against Everton?
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Any idea when we get the price rise situation with Siggy clarified. There is nothing re this in the FAQ or Rules. This is a significant part of the game strategy for a lot of people and changing things on the fly is not good.
Open ControlsYou've mid- understood the situation.
TotalFPL and Fiso don't determine price rises. They try to predict them. Each year FPL's formula changes ( and is not published). The websites need data to update their models. That's the phase we're in now.Open ControlsRight on the money. The Fiso boys seem to be ahead.
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Ah, thanks, was not aware of this.
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why didnt siggy rise
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Re: Siggy situation. It might suggest that will be more difficult to get double/triple price rise.
Price will not jump fast, so high team value might be less important.
Is it more or less important to avoid price drop?
Opinion please.Open ControlsPrice drops = Money lost. Price rises = gain if you keep the player or 50% if you sell. So it's more important to avoid drops.
Open ControlsI had my highest TV in 7 years of playing FPL last year. I also had my worst rank since my first year.
TV is important, but getting (c) calls correct is probably the most important.Open Controls
lol
Open Controls*quits Last man strangling league
Open ControlsDon't think you can blame captaincy for last season.
If you had the good scoring players, your rank and TV would have been good. You chose to go without.Open Controlsooooh, my oh my are we very clever today.
So what's your excuse for your 47k rank in 2012/13 then?
BTw, I didn't use my shitty (c) choices as an excuse. Im just saying small things like that makes or breaks a season. Like my Chester benching this week.
🙄Open ControlsI played badly, end of.
Wouldn't say I was unlucky either.
You had your turn last season.Open Controls
It will become more important to avoid price drops as it will be harder to recover lost value, but team values won't rise quite as quickly either.
Open ControlsLimited evidence suggests you're right. We'll know more when Fab is predicted to rise again.
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@Doosra
After all yesterday's melodrama, I saved my FT 🙂
You should be proud of me 😉Open ControlsChester had more goal attempts then Cesc and Hazard combined 😎
Open ControlsWanna take a guess who of the milfs had the most?
Open ControlsIf he plays for Chelsea then I know, if not then I am wrong
Open ControlsWrong.
Open ControlsHull?
Open ControlsMcGeady
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McGreedy
Open Controlslol
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Really? Wow should start using the members area more
Open Controls...or get friends in the right places...
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Tom Fenley, last year's FPl winner doesn't own Costa people. We would have slated him prior to GW1.
Stay calm. Stick to your guns.Open ControlsWhats wrong with Costa? Hes going to provide steady returns all season
Open ControlsNothing at all. Im just pointing out that every tom drick and hairy owns costa, yet last years FPL winner doesn't.
It will be interesting to see who Mr Fenley's (c) this week, as my guess is the poll will suggest Costa.Open ControlsNothing at all. Im just pointing out that we all own Costa, yet 2014's FPL winner doesn't. It's the same with Cesc/Mata now, people are abandoning ship after 90 min of football.
It will be interesting who Mr Fenley (c) this week.Open Controls
He probably won't be this year's winner 😉
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Here is my defense: Clyne Cahill Debuchy Wisdom Bruce
Who would you put in the starting team for GW2?
The 3 first seems obvious, but I question myself about Debuchy. It might be a tough game for Arsenal. What do you guys think?Open ControlsFirst 3 definitely.
Open ControlsHis attacking threat whilst playing for a top 4 team should always be considered. I wouldn't ever bench him
Open ControlsShould be tough but Arsenal traditionally do well against Everton.
Open ControlsHe's 5.5 for a reason.
It's not because he played for Newcastle.Open ControlsThanks 🙂
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Ok so if I was to trade out mata...would you go for sterling (now 8.6) or ramsay?
Open ControlsRamsey.
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Ramsey, think he will be better this season and will probably rise in next week or 2, you could always then drop to sterling if he under performs
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on the price rise front Im thinking it may take more for a player to rise for the 2nd and 3rd time in a week than for the first rise.
1st rise 100%
2nd rise 200%
3rd rise 300%Open Controls
is schurrle nailed on? thinking of doing marney to schurle and sturiddge to dzeko....makes sense??
Open Controlsnot nailed just yet, if he does nail it on he will make a lot of teams. I'm holding off just because he will be easy to transfer in even if his price goes up slightly, which on the evidence of siggy will be a slow process anyway
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Triggerlips: Every .1 that is lost takes a .2 rise to recover.
As we can see from the siggy situation, even with such a large number of NTI he still doesn't go up 0.2 this week.
So every 0.1 you drop will take likely two weeks to recover, at best!
I think the most important thing now is to prevent price drops, instead of chasing prices increases? Will be really interesting when Mata reaches 90+% NTI...Open Controls*meth
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I still don't get how he hasn't risen......
Open ControlsNot if the player is below the selling price. Above the price you paid for them you need .2 to make .1. If they are below the price you paid for them every .1 they recover will be .1 more your get back.
To give an example, if Mata drops to 8.8 this week, then has a storming GW2 and rises to 9 you'd get 9 if you sold him. But if you hold and he has a storming GW3 too, and rises to 9.2, you'd get 9.1 for selling him.
Having said that of course, if a player is falling below his purchase price you're in the dilemma of whether to stick or twist with a falling player. Twist and you crystallize the loss. Stick and you could recover - or you could drop further. That's one reason the current Mata dilemma in these parts is interesting.Open Controls
Fabregas owners - when are you planning on ditching him for Hazard?
Hazard will obviously finish the season with more points, so when are you planning on making the switch?Open ControlsHow many times are you gonna post this?
lol
*PS, you convinced me to keep Hazard.
😉Open Controls😆
The never-ending circle of lifeOpen ControlsKeeping both methinks.
Open Controlswhen he starts outperforming him. although I agree he probably will I want to watch how the other premium mids perform first (yaya/sanchez) and also need to save budget for potentially rvp and studge
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I have Hazard and if Lamela fails again then I'm thinking of getting Fab in and going with Costa ,Hazard and Fabregas
Open ControlsHopefully when it's a downgrade.
lolOpen Controls
Fabs IS a premium mid...
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Mata's gonna go fecking mental this weekend!
GO MATA!!!!Open Controls
Chester/Bruce, Kelly or Clyne?
Open ControlsClyne
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Tony Pulis is seriously deluded if he thinks he is too good for Palace.
Open Controls*Cue Baines 15 pointer this week and Kun 12 pointer.
Resulting in a flood of "should I sell Costa & Terry and keep Cesc as my only Chelsea cover?"Open ControlsOr a fabregas blank and a couple of goals from mata
All the casuals would swap straight backOpen ControlsYou have no idea how much I would love this
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whats the best case for cesc? 10 goals this season with maybe 10 assists?
Hazard and Costa will outscore him... everyone jerking due to a match against burnley...Open ControlsHe could get 15 goals and 30 assists and untold bonus points
Open ControlsHe'll get a lot more than 10 assists.
Open ControlsThink 10 assists is way below what he will get. Just being on corners is a big plus.
Open ControlsI think Hazard and Fabregas will be very close at the season's end with Hazard just outscoring Cesc
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Hey guys. Pretty amateur question, probably explained a million times but I can't see anywhere. What's the fiso deal this year? Expected Siggy to go up last night but didn't. Are there new rules?
Open ControlsBefore posting it helps if you read the previous few pages
Open ControlsFPL don't have rules for price changes.
The prediction sites try to work them out.
Still a work in progress.Open Controlsthere still working out the FPLs formula for price rises. ninny case it seems price rises/falls will be slower this year, awkward for those (aka me) who transferred mata to fab expecting 0.2 yesterday!
Open ControlsCheers mate, looks that way doesn't it. Did siggy in last night just in case but happy regardless. He'll go up eventually.
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He'll probably pop tonight, over 200% on both fiso and total fpl. Even if they are applying slightly skewed logic based on early season numbers he's gonna end up 6.2 by saturday min.
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Trig, couldnt reply to your linked article, no word press account, heres my thoughts-
A genuine question to Mata owners (I am one) who are advising people to hold on to him. Is this based on-
A. Fantasy football tactics and experience ie saving transfers, jerking knees, points hits
B. Actual analysis of how Man U played on Saturday, you saw signs they will actually play better.
C. The vain hope that if you keep saying it others wont transfer him out and might avoid a price fall and it makes you feel more justified in your decision to keep him.
I watched the whole of the Man U game. They were woeful.
-------------------------------------de Gea-----------------------------------------
-------------------------Blackett Smalling Jones-----------------------
----Young------------------- Fletcher------Herrera -------------------- Lingard
------------------------------------Mata----------------------------------------
----------------------------Hernández Rooney---------------------------
Next week Lingard maybe out? Janzai / Valencia in? Evans may be back?
Look at that team, it is not good. There will be moments of individual brilliance from Rooney, Mata and RVP but as an actual team it is poor.
During the game the defense were disorganized, not knowing who to pick up. The system of 3 center back works well when there are 2 up front for the opposition, 2 mark and one sweeps. When the opposition plays only one up front 3 at the back is a waste, it creates indecision over who has responsibility. The 3 centre backs did not get round to cover the wing backs. Herrera was bullied out the game by Shelvey! Young cant defend. There is a distinct lack of creativity in the middle and when Man U had possession they would get slowly into the Swansea half and then looked ponderous. Van Gaal has played this system all pre season but had such little confidence in it/ the players that after 45 mins he went to 4-4-2. He himself has come out and said that this team is not good enough.
Anyway this is not pure Man U bashing, really want to know about advice given on here, the A,B,C above. I have a little experience of fantasy league but have played and coached at ok levels, not sure if my ‘real’ football thoughts helps with the fantasy game?Open ControlsI've seen this post 4 times
Open ControlsGut feeling, a reluctance to spend points , their fixtures, Matas good historry as a fantasy player
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Mata's good so Mata stays for now. Simple as that. Will eject immediately if no improvement after Sunderland.
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If eject, for who?
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thing is, the media made us believe that LVG was a god, the-anti Moyes... a tactical genius... when if you think about it, he generally had great players whenever he won the league... even his world cup showings, Netherlands are a top team... this united team isnt the worst but if you assess their squad it's probably 6th best at best?
I'd also try and wonder the impact on the players if they lose this weekend... mentally i think they'll be f'ed for their entire good run?Open Controls
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Open ControlsJovetic->Bony for a hit?
Open ControlsYup.
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A. Caulker > Clyne
B. Caulker > Vlaar + .5m itb
C. Caulker > another 4.5/5.0
D. HoldOpen ControlsD
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9 years, 8 months agoMorning folks
If you are on a WC ( yes I have activated, soldier down)
Would u go for premium forwards ie, kun costa Rooney