Scout Reports

Scout Report – Toby Alderweireld

Southampton wrapped up their business for the summer by sealing a one-year loan deal for defender Toby Alderweireld from La Liga champions Atletico Madrid during last Monday’s transfer deadline day. Upon completing the transfer, Saints boss Ronald Koeman hailed the quality and top-flight experience of his latest signing:

“I am delighted that we have been able to bring Toby to the club. He is a strong defender, and is also very good at building up the play when we play out from the back. He played in the top league in Spain and against top teams in Europe, so he has a lot of confidence and experience, and he has a big future because he is still young. We needed competition in our squad, and with Toby here we now have a lot of possibilities and quality.”

Alderweireld, meanwhile, admitted he’s keen to work under the Dutchman and stressed his eagerness to kick on in his new surroundings:

“Koeman’s style of play fits me and I’m very happy to be here. It’s a very big step for my career. I had to make the right decision. I think Southampton in this stage of my career is the right step. They are up and coming, a very warm club. It’s something I’ve been searching for and it’s great that I find it here. Now, I want to give something back to the club and do all my best to help the team. It’s nice to hear that he (Koeman) likes my play. He called me and said that he really wants me to come. A trainer that believes in me is really important.”

The History

Tobias Albertine Maurits Alderweireld is yet another product of the indefatigable Ajax youth academy. Having impressed as a youngster, the Belgian earned his first-team debut in the season of 2008/09 during which he went on to make several appearances in the Eredivisie and Europa League. The following campaign, Alderweireld – at the age of just 20 – established himself in Ajax’s starting XI at centre-back alongside Jan Vertonghen, and finished the season with the reputed title of ‘Ajax Talent of the Year’.

In the following three seasons, Alderweireld was an integral part of the Ajax side that secured three consecutive Eredivisie titles, scoring five goals in the league and a further five in his side’s Champions League pursuits.

Following his success with the Dutch giants, the young defender moved to Atletico at the start of the 2013/14 season for a €7 million fee. However, game-time proved hard to come by for the Belgian, who made just 12 appearances for his new side as they pipped Barcelona and rivals Real Madrid to the La Liga title and reached the Champions League final (in which Alderweireld took to the field for the final stages of extra time).

Having made his senior debut in 2009, Alderweireld now has 37 caps to his name for Belgium’s national side. The most recent of those appearances came in this summer’s World Cup, in which the defender started four of Belgium’s five games, conceding just three goals.

The Prospects

Though last season may have been a disappointment for Alderweireld on a personal level, his move to Southampton should breathe new life into the 25-year-old’s career. The Belgian’s experience on the continent looks set to see him instilled at the hear of the Saints’ back-four alongside Jose Fonte, which should all but ending the game time of Maya Yoshida, who has until now stood out as the only sub-5.0 route into Koeman’s defence.

Although Alderweireld was occasionally used at right back during his years with Ajax, it seems highly unlikely that Nathaniel Clyne’s starting spot will come under threat. Alderweireld has been introduced to the Fantasy Premier League game at a starting price of 5.0, a factor which could propel him up and above the 5.5-priced Fonte in our reckoning if he does, as expected, secure a starting role.

Whilst Clyne’s potential for attacking returns still guarantees his higher place in our Watchlist right now, Alderweireld himself demonstrated a propensity for a stunning strike on a number of occasions during his years at Ajax – a couple of those in the near future for the Saints would see the Belgian’s allure increase immensely.

The defender couldn’t be handed a kinder schedule to settle in to his new surroundings. Southampton are one of only five teams to be handed four home fixtures in the next six Gameweeks and one look at their schedule (NEW, swa, QPR, tot, SUN, STO) suggests they have every chance of continuing on from the Gameweek 3 win at West Ham. With a summer of upheaval now over, Koeman will be optimistic that his new-look side can click into gear and Alderweireld’s arrival certainly suggests they’ve made a step in the right direction.

Further Reference

Toby Alderweireld Wikipedia

Toby Alderweireld Transfer Markt Page

Toby Alderweireld First Southampton Interview

3,221 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Kevtheotter
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Foster Jones Ramsey Jovetic and Costa all yellow.....What are their % of starting you think?

    90
    0
    50
    50
    90

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      No idea, low, half, low, high

      1. the cromulent one
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        I'll take that.

    2. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      56
      21
      14
      48
      33

    3. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      no idea
      10
      50
      30
      70

    4. chrrizzy
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      No idea
      24
      95
      50
      90

  2. President John F. Keninnsie
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Ramsey injured? What a pain.

    1. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      As for my WC...

      I REGRET NOTHING 😀

      1. President John F. Keninnsie
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Kinda wish I did tbh. Having 2FT stopped me.

        1. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Well, at least you can say you didn't miss out on much if you have to WC late.

          Oi vey.

    2. the cromulent one
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Hey Innsie,
      Is there any DZ submission for the scout picks that everyone here is getting behind?

      1. BeachBadger
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Look for the best submission. That will be the DZ one 😉

        1. the cromulent one
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Undoubtedly. 🙂

      2. President John F. Keninnsie
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Nah it hasn't been talked about in the DZ this week. Looking at the Hot Topic, Arvin is the DZer with the most votes, but Doos will be hard to catch.

  3. chrrizzy
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Is Bertrand nailed? I'm trying to save some $$ by going with Bertrand instead of Clyne

    1. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Yep.

      1. chrrizzy
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        thanks

  4. Bojaninho
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    so who are people contemplating to as a replacement for Rambo if he is indeed out?

    1. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Sterling for me. But then many already have him.

      1. Bojaninho
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        already have Sterling, Fab, Siggy, Jones

        1. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Jones?

          1. Bojaninho
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Burnley mid

            1. Not Irish
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              Well, you're all set then.

      2. the cromulent one
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Sterling! Without the Ramsey injury would have probably done Silva to Sterling.

        1. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Good for you. 🙄

          😆

          1. Bojaninho
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            😀

    2. Najoman86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      A twisted ankle doesn't sound too severe. Unless it has been diagnosed worse than initially reported?

      1. Not Irish
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        I'm still dithering around on a twisted ankle from over two months ago. Depends on how severe the sprain is. Can actually be worse than a break.

        1. Najoman86
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Definitely agree with you there, MRU. Ankle knocks can be troublesome for sure!
          I was just basing it on Coleman's post-match presser. He gave the impression that Ramsey should be ok sooner rather than later. As early as this weekend, who knows?

          Strap him up and play him, I say! Ha!

          1. Wonderful Wizard Hazard
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Always helps to have the magic spray and steroids to recover from these injuries faster than us mortals.

            1. Not Irish
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              No doubt.

              I need some HGH up in my body.

    3. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Di Maria maybe. Or Tadic. Not a lot of great options there once you have the rest of the template mids

      1. Bojaninho
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Di Maria and Silva but reckon he will be fine...

    4. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Was planning on benching siggy this week (yes i know, i know) so my replacement is lined up on the bench already. if Costa is injured too I may have to consider using my FT to rectify that as i don't want to have Wisdom replacing my main striker.

  5. the cromulent one
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    I mentioned yesterday *almost* wanting Ramsey to pick up an injury against Andorra. Well, I'm not happy, but it makes Ramsey to Sterling a no-brainer.

    1. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Some human you are.

    2. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      We'll done - now think of ISIS disappearing.

      1. the cromulent one
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Indeed. With great power comes great responsibility.

  6. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Ramsey injured Rooney dropped - Lol at everyone who loled at people who are on a wc.

    Btw - "lol@" is the lowest form of posting here.

    1. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      lol@those loling@lolers@

      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Exactly 🙂

      2. the cromulent one
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Well put.

      3. Zep
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Lol@you for lolling@those who are lolling@lollers... 😉

        1. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          lol@you for thinking you're better than me while loling@me loling@those loling@lolers@

          1. Zep
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            I don't think I can stop loling long enough to attempt a counter lol-strike... 😉

            lol*

            *an ironic lol**

            **this is only to be taken as a descriptive lol*** and not an actual lol*** intended to offend...

            ***TO HELL WITH IT, it's never ending... 😆

            1. Not Irish
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              lol 😆

    2. Zep
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I'm not a huge fan of loling either... but if I allowed stuff like that to get to me, I would be a very angry person by now...

      1. BeachBadger
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        lol @ anger issues

        1. Zep
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          😆

        2. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Oh. Snap.

          lol

  7. SierraDelta
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone playing FIFA 15 Demo ?
    Find it hard to believe that Sterling only has 79 rating ( Torres still is 82 )

    1. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Crap game. Has been for ages.

      1. SierraDelta
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        It's best football game out there, take your Rage elsewhere 😛

        1. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          It's been crap since about forever. Last game I properly enjoyed was Euro 2004.

          Those where the days alright.

          1. Wonderful Wizard Hazard
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Just played fifa world cup 2006 recently, I couldn't believe how fast the game play was, insane. If only EA stopped removing features and adding new ones :/

    2. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      RVP - 88
      Bale - 87

      Modric - 87
      Fabregas - 84

      😕

      1. SierraDelta
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Bale is twice the player of RVP 😉
        Hugo Lloris 85 ????

      2. Billy Gilmore
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah, lots of old, over the hill players are rated very high.

    3. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Is it out on PS3 yet?

      1. SierraDelta
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Tomorrow for PS

        1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Cheers.

    4. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Sterling must have really high potential though. I'd expect it to be 90 like Bakkali had in FIFA 14.

  8. 1314
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Is Sturridge definitely out for this week ?

  9. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Surely McCarthy will soon take green's place no? 4.0 playing keeper anyone?

    1. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Can't see him taking Green's place anytime soon unless he has a big drop in form.

    2. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      McCarthy "Obviously Liverpool historically are a massive club, but I wanted to go with QPR. I feel like I'm going to play more here and that was the reason."

      It's possible alright. But I wouldnt hold my breath on it being soon

      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        But we are talking about rob green here...

        1. BeachBadger
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          😆

        2. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          lol

          1. Not Irish
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            @

            1. Not Irish
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              Rob

              1. Not Irish
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 7 months ago

                Green

                1. BeachBadger
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 7 months ago

                  😆

  10. andres
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Rate my WC team please 🙂

    Bego gilks
    Naylor PVA clyne moreno moore
    Marney ADM fabs sterling siggy
    Kun costa welbeck
    0.1.

    1. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Great.

      1. andres
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        ADM and welbeck risky?

        1. President John F. Keninnsie
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Yeah but both should be good long term picks, if you're set on taking the risk by getting them now then go for it, it could easily pay off.

          1. andres
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Thinking maybe naismith and bank the cash for next 2gws

    2. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Nice. Bego>Forster makes it very nice.

      1. andres
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Bego better fixtures..

        1. Not Irish
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          You better look again. Also, Saints the better defense.

          1. andres
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Sorry confused with foster:)

            Have clyne currently, double up or ship for a cheaper defender?

            1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              Forster still a better option.

            2. Not Irish
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              Double down, brosus. 😀

    3. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Very similar to mine

  11. Kerrazy
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Latest news on Jovetic ?

    1. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      No idea but what ef is with your grav?

  12. Kerrazy
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Seems like Ramsey set to miss the city clash huh?

  13. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Jovetic, Costa, Ramsey, Rooney.

    WC?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Whats wrong with Rooney?

      1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Want to keep away from utd until they get better.

  14. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    lol

    1. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      lol alright

  15. Najoman86
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Assuming Ramsey & Jovetic are right to go this weekend, would appreciate some thoughts on the below:

    Begovic
    Terry Clyne Debuchy
    Sigurdsson Sterling(vc) Ramsey Mata
    Rooney(c) Jovetic Diouf
    Krul S.Davis Wisdom Caulker

    1.2m ITB
    FT - Mata > Fabregas or Hazard? I considered a -4pts for Debuchy > Pieters, but with the injury clouds over Jovetic & Ramsey, I may hold off.

  16. Twelve years a slave
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Always play my wildcard on this international break , this one hasnt been ideal as they slowed down price changes, but i stillbelieve its the time to play it unless have a good team already.

    Wildcards normally have to be taken at the start of the week because of the price changes. and there are good reasons for choosing this week

    1) Transfer deadline is during this week
    2) Many internationals where there are always injury scares
    3) Three games to assess whats going on.

    All that went wrong was the stuff up with all the price changes but that was beyond our control. Gameweek two players were falling very fast, this week they slowed it all down. Some claimed they knew this was going to happen, but they just after the event know it alls.

    Personally happy to shave .5 off the keeper bill as wba wont contribute much as a rotator. Lost Albrighton who dosent play, Bought in sterling for Mata , Lost Jovetic , tweeked the defence a little and changed the structure to a 352 as its become apparent there many quality mids, especially with the arrival of Di maria and the cheap third striker option of Welbeck

    well worth it imo

    1. Zep
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Good luck with your decision...

      1. Twelve years a slave
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Just need Tadic to start producing now

    2. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Actually considering playing it now!

      1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Given the lack of price changes

        1. Twelve years a slave
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          it a bit annoying that people can still play it now , and they havent sufered for it 🙂

          1. Twelve years a slave
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Except they lost .1 on Rooney , small consolation

            1. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              Quite small 😉

          2. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah would be annoying! I just need to sort out a few injuries, so could be good playing it now.

    3. Not Irish
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Posted this last page...

      If Dyer, Iva and Schneiderlin rise again as they should I'll have netted .4 in rises despite the unexpected slow down along with avoiding at least .2 in drops and swapping injured in Rooney, Studge, Jovetic, Hazard and Ramsey. Not bad all in all.

    4. Wells - Anti-Dentite!
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Could be some earnings to be had when all the casuals log on for the first time in a week over the next few days.

      1. Not Irish
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Surely, I hope...

        1. Twelve years a slave
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Do you think Dyer Naismith or Ivan will rise again?
          Can also make money if Clyne rises before deadline

          i was expecting drops

          from
          rooney
          Bony
          Mata
          Ferdinand
          Albrighton
          Lovren

          They all would of fallen if they hadnt slowed it all down, still a chance some may, not that it matters as dont have them now anyway, but would be pleasing to know i had avoided their lfalls. Ferdinand Mata and Albrighton will drop sooner or later though , so still dodged a bullet

    5. money face bandwagon
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      It has always been dead for price change when there is international break. It will pick up closing to the weekend.

  17. Zep
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Rainbow are one of my favourite bands...

    1. Goodnight Kiwi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Top Name. Top Grav

      1. Zep
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks mate, good to have you on board...

        Haven't had the pleasure of speaking much with you in the DZ...

        1. Goodnight Kiwi
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Very excited for Team NZ! Will pick my posting up 😉

    2. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Awesome grav.

      1. Zep
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers Cap'n...

        1. President John F. Keninnsie
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          If you've got a spare few mins to make mine look a bit better/similar to yours then I'd really appreciate it. Just whenever you're not busy... 🙂

          1. Zep
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            You want the rainbow in the background?

            Just remove the flag for now?

            1. President John F. Keninnsie
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              Yep. Thanks.

  18. andres
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Wilson nailed on??

  19. Mr Sarcastic
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Waited almost long enough....mata -> Sterling done yesterday and I even tought that Ramsey could still get injured!

  20. Diva
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Rooney dropped after losing about 16% of his ownership this Gameweek.

    If the threshold for the first price decrease is still about -10% of ownership and if about 12% of FPL players are on a wildcard* and about half of those wildcard players own Rooney** then tonight's change might make sense as a price drop just about bang on target if wildcards are excluded from drop calculations. (-16% + 6% Rooney wildcarders = -10%)

    Of course, not everyone on a wildcard who owns Rooney will be transferring him out, but then again Rooney owners might have been more inclined to play their wildcard this week as part of a team restructuring. I'm not sure about this, I'm just trying to draw some strands together to try to work out what is going on behind the scenes with transfers. Any thoughts?

    *8.5% played their wildcard in the last Gameweek, according to fpldiscovery, so I think 12% is not too crazy an assumption for this longer international break Gameweek.
    **ownership was 46.4% at the start of this Gameweek.

    1. Twelve years a slave
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Good work, looks to be the case. If sales from wildcards dont count then it appears buys dont either.
      There going to be a massive amount of us wildcarders bringing Rooney back in on saturday morning, but they wont help stem his decline.
      Casuals will be making their changes in the next few days, can expect many of them to flock to Falcao which will increase genuine Rooney sales

    2. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Nice work. Whats your view on Lovren with these calculations in mind? Will he drop?

      1. rickardinho
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Had a look myself actually. By my calculations Lovren has fallen 2.89% this gameweek, but that is using the current ownership of 28.1% which is a little low compared to what he was last week (I think 33%). Adjusting for that he's fallen around 2.5% this GW.

        Looking at total transfers in and out (ie. all gameweeks combined), 39,000 in, 203,000 out, which is a net transfer out of 164,000. His ownership was around 36% to start of with if I remember correctly, which was about 1,150,800 owners. The 164,000 transfers out would thus represent a drop of 14.25% of owners. Lets assume that around 1/3 of wildcarders own Lovren and all of them have transferred him out, which would account for be 4/14ths of that 14.25%. Meaning that if wildcard sales aren't counted, Lovren is teetering very close to the 10% threshold.

        The starting ownership % might have been as high as 38% which may skew the numbers slightly negatively, but not all WC'ers have dropped him which probably negates the previous assumption.

        With this in mind, is Lovren>Moreno as shrewd move?

        1. Diva
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Sorry had to go out briefly. I haven't been keeping track of Lovren so I'd have to look at that but it looks like you have been. I probably shouldn't comment further until King Kaka tells me where I was going wrong!

    3. King Kaka
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Could be correct directionally....but the maths as described above doesn't work.

      1. Diva
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        I'm not a statistician so if you can correct my maths please feel free to explain where I'm going wrong!

        1. King Kaka
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Apologies, to be specific, % total wildcarders (Rooney ownership estimate) do not equal Rooney actual ownership. Not apples with apples, so to speak.

          Hmmm... not sure that explanation is as clear as I meant to be.

          Example to illustrate point:

          200 ppl total play FPL
          100 ppl own Rooney (approx 50%)

          As per your post, if 16% have sold (16 ppl)

          and estimate of 12% wildcarders this gw (6% Rooney owners), that makes 12 sales to discount, i.e. the 6% is on total FPL players and not Rooney ownership

          Gives 4 "counted" sales or 4% drop in ownership as per your proposed formula not 10%.

          The bigger point that 16% ownership drop could be about right taking into consideration wildcard influence seems reasonable still though.

          1. Diva
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Thanks. I had just been thinking about it and thought you might come back with "you can't add different percentages together" - although you did it more gently and in a simple to understand way! It's late here and my brain is tired. Schoolboy error on my part.

            I might try again with the real figures. My basic hypothesis is that there's little difference in first drop from last year and that it is Rooney's high ownership and this week's wildcard count that is accounting for him to take longer to drop than many on here expected. I'm pleased you might agree with that, even if my sums were a little out!

            1. King Kaka
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              Don't worry, I'm not a statistician either (although I am forced to deal with waaaay to many numbers daily).

              I do agree with your main point yes. But have always had fundamental issues with the mechanics behind price drops which is (surprisingly and unfortunately) largely overlooked in FFS discussion. The "10% decline in ownership" driver can be much improved upon, imo.

              1. Diva
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 7 months ago

                Thanks King Kaka. Your conclusion posted while I was busy working out the figures below seems to suggest you might disagree with me and favour option c? I've been using -10% ownership as a starting point as I thought I had read somewhere that was thought to be the building block on which the price drop algorithms were built. But maybe not, or maybe it has changed. Either way, it's good to chat with someone else who has thought about this.

                1. King Kaka
                  • 12 Years
                  9 years, 7 months ago

                  No, I agree with your line of thought.

                  It's the dynamics behind the price dropping that I don't agree with. Lot of discussion around price changes and wildcard impact etc...I actually find the general consensus to be quite alarming. Can repost my thoughts if interested.

            2. Diva
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 7 months ago

              OK, so trying again using rough figures:

              Rooney's ownership was roughly 1,484,400 at the last Gameweek deadline.

              If -10% of ownership required for a drop, then NTO required is about 148,440.

              Rooney's NTO this Gameweek shortly before the drop = 238,412

              So, Rooney had about 90,000 more net transfers out than required for a drop at -10% of his ownership.

              If 12% (guestimate) of FPL players are wildcarding, that = 384,000

              If 46.4% of those owned Rooney at the start of the Gameweek, that = 178,176

              That is a difference of about double that required to explain the gap between NTO and a drop at a -10% ownership threshold if wildcards don't count.

              Possible explanations could be:
              a) only about half of Rooney owners are actually removing him on their wildcard,
              b) wildcard play by all FPL players is more like 6% this week, or
              c) the threshold required excluding wildcards is far less than 10%.
              There may be other explanations too, but these are the ones that immediately spring to mind.

              c) seems unlikely to me, but some combination of a) and b) could make sense.

              1. Diva
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 7 months ago

                Should have added explanation d) possible positive NTI (excluding wildcard transfers) carried over from previous Gameweeks.

                Too tired.

  21. robdag
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Ok, so I have Dier, Ramsey, Hazard and Costa in my team at the moment. Pretty essential to WC?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      What happen to Dier and Hazard? Costa should be fit...

    2. Viper
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I would like to have 3 of the players mentioned and own the 4th one.

      Its fine!

    3. Galfadez
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      My WC team has Costa and Ramsey in it. There's no point tradin' 'em out yet

  22. crteer
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Any help guys:

    De Gea / (Gilks)
    Clyne / Pieters / Debuchy / (O'Shea) / (Caulker)
    Siggy / Ramsey (D) / Fabregas / Sterling / (Schneiderlin)
    Costa (D) / Rooney / Naismith

    Already played my 2 FT, along with another two meaning I'm already taking a -8 hit this week. Is there any outstanding issues I need to watch, potentially meaning I need to WC?

    1. Bolivian Seaman
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      It's fine

    2. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I wouldn't play a WC if i were you. I doubt Costa AND Ramsey would both be out, but even if they were you'd still have a pretty solid 442 to fall back on.

      I have both of them as well (in fact my team is identical to yours apart from pieters, debuchy, oshea, and schneiderlin), though i still have my FT and 0.5 itb to play in an emergency on Saturday morning if needs be 🙂

      1. crteer
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks mate, good call.

        Will leave it until Saturday!

  23. Pinoche
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Just flag my whole team already

    1. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      lol

    2. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      😆

  24. Bolivian Seaman
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    QPR (a)

    I'm sure people are assuming that fixture is going to be 4-0.

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Yep. 0-4 QPR

      1. Bolivian Seaman
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        elementary 😉

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          😀

    2. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Not at all. I think it'll be 1-1. Caulker and Rooney with the goals ofcourse 😀

  25. Viper
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    *IF* Ramsey is out for a couple of weeks, how does this sound?

    Eriksen & Ramsey -> Tadic & Fabregas, 4 point hit.

    I don't have Costa.

    1. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Good.

    2. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I think its a shrewd move. I actually have Ramsey, Tadic, and Fabregas myself and think they're all good options. If you have 0.5 you could trade up to Di Maria too.

      I'm a little bit hesitant to sell Ramsey now though before he rises to 9.2 as that would entail losing the 0.1 rise. I'm confident that Naismith and Siggy/Tadic can more than cover for him for a week in any case.

  26. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Ramsey injured then. Good that I don't have him.

    Early Saturday kickoff vs City and then a CL game on Tuesday vs Dortmund. Hmm...looks like he may miss the City game. What do you reckon?

    1. Bolivian Seaman
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Sounds like he could be a sub against Man city, but just guessing. Wilshere is getting better he can play in the ramsey role. Ozil in the middle, sanchez and the ox on the flanks

      1. Goodnight Kiwi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        For those who don't have him, Rambo coming on as a sub late in the game looking for the winner would be just as scary

      2. pundit of punts
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        I think he either misses the game completely or starts.

        Don't think Wenger will risk him with Dortmund away in a few days.

        1. BayerNevaLusen
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          The game against city is more important then the game against Dortmund IMO.

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Think he will miss this week's game.
      But I have Van Aanholt/Caulker as backup incase... 😎

    3. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      yup! glad I don't have him

  27. Bolivian Seaman
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=uZ7A16ZtvXw

    Mane scoring in his last friendly. Video quality makes it look like the 1990s

  28. Goodnight Kiwi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Just saw T̶o̶r̶r̶e̶s̶ Neymar's miss *ozilface*

  29. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    who would you pick?

    a. rvp and tadic
    b. adm and ade

    1. Goodnight Kiwi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      B for me

    2. Bolivian Seaman
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      aguero and tadic

      1. rickardinho
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        this

  30. BayerNevaLusen
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    What should I do?

    DDG - Gilks
    Debuchy - Cahill - Chester - Clyne - Dummet
    Siggy - Ramsey - Eriksen - Sterling - Marney
    Costa - Rooney - Fletcher
    (2.4ITB) 0FT

    Im thinking of playing Fletcher this GW and get Welbeck/Pelle for him next GW. I'm also worried about Ramsey. Should I do a transfer this GW and take a hit? Thoughts? Thanks.

    1. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      sit tight. you've got decent cover if ramsey sits out