The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 33

I always like to draw parallels between Fantasy Football and the real task of football management.

This perhaps springs from the days of investing hours watching stick men edge around the screen in Football Manager, eventually graduating through the iterations of Championship Manager – all the time convincing myself of my credentials as a real-life gaffer.

It’s nonsense, of course, but when Arsene Wenger recently revealed his process of team selection, I couldn’t help but identify with one of his statements…

“…you always have your team in your head, for the whole week. You never go to bed without thinking about what the next line-up will be. You live with that always. That can create uncertainties, because you think about it every day. If you don’t know on Friday night, you will not know on Saturday morning so you have to decide in your head early, and go for it.”

It takes no effort to apply this to Fantasy Football.

My own team selection undoubtedly lives “in my head” and, granted, normally, by Friday night, my mind is pretty much made up.

However, this week has been riddled with uncertainty. It’s hard to remember a Gameweek that throws so many variables our way.

Missing fixtures for six teams. An immediate double Gameweek for two genuine heavy-hitting sides. Three fixtures for the Champions elect to consider. Three fixtures for an unlikely budget source to mull over. Then we can throw in the usual factors – points hits, rising prices, falling prices and injuries.

It’s a head-spinning scenario and, while I think I’ve resolved my own moves, I’m far from convinced that I’ve settled on the optimum solution.

When there are this many factors involved, I find myself analysing deeper than ever, attempting to see if the order of my transfers and the potential use of points can be improved. I’m sure I’ve missed a trick.

Part of me is worried that plundering future double Gameweek assets seems just too simple. While we’ve seen the likes of QPR and Villa deliver very recently, there’s always a nagging doubt that prioritising targets on this basis can be dangerous.

Cesc Fabregas vs David Silva has been my major conundrum. While the former has the two fixtures to come, Chelsea’s desire to score goals and therefore his ability to play a part in them is a concern. Silva’s own goalscoring rate has accelerated and while City’s season is in danger of fizzling to Europa League nothingness, their Etihad match-ups with West Ham and Villa appear to offer Silva the platform to outperform his compatriot, even with one fewer fixture.

Looking back at Mr Wenger, he has his own midfield dilemmas but seems able to just put his best players on the pitch and get results.

I reckon I could have the Arsenal teamsheet picked by Friday night, probably even Tuesday morning. However, throw in blanks and double Gameweeks and my decision-making is far more muddled.

But Wenger would probably pick Fabregas. He’s been getting things right lately and I’ve been fortunate enough to do the same. I’ll go with Fabregas.

Having tirelessly trawled statistics and form, this is crazy logic that should never influence my decision. But sometimes 11.30 is not time enough and it takes such a ridiculous theory to tip the balance.

I shouldn’t beat myself up about it: the parallels with real-life management may still remain intact.

In a few years a “sophisticated” Sam Allardyce will probably reveal how he picked his Saturday teamsheet based on what his players had for breakfast.