Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Budget Forwards

Having already assessed the Goalkeepers, Budget Defenders, Mid-Price Defenders, Premium Defenders, Budget Midfielders, Mid-Price Midfielders and Premium Midfielders, we take a look at what’s on offer up front in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game.

We begin our analysis with the budget forwards, with Fantasy managers hoping for a repeat of last season, where the likes of Harry Kane, Charlie Austin, Danny Ings and Saido Berahino proved outstanding value in the cut-price bracket.

Aston Villa’s Gabriel Agbonlahor has been priced at just 5.0 this season. The 28-year-old forward found the back of the net six times last term in 34 appearances, and registered 44 goal attempts from inside the box, four more than Leicester’s Jamie Vardy managed. Certainly, Agbonlahor’s place in Tim Sherwood’s starting XI isn’t assured, with the likes of Jack Grealish, Scott Sinclair and Charles N’Zogbia competing for positions on the flanks if Sherwood opts for a 4-3-3 system again but if the former Tottenham boss looks to play with two strikers, Agbonlahor could be an option. Finally free from injury, Libor Kozak (5.0) has already netted in Villa’s first friendly and the near-certain departure of Christian Benteke could afford him a chance to nail down a starting berth, though it’s fair to say that Sherwood will be looking to splash the cash if the Belgian makes his way to Liverpool.

Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson was playing League One football for Coventry just over a year ago, but now finds himself plying his trade in the Premier League after producing 20 league goals and provided seven assists last season. Nailed on under Eddie Howe, the England U21 should cause defenders problems with his pace and clever movement and, priced at just 5.5 in FPL, could be a solid cheap option from the outset, with four very kind looking home matches (AVL, LEI, SUN, WAT) and a trip to Norwich in the opening eight Gameweeks. With Brett Pitman now at Ipswich and Yann Kermorgant far from likely to be a regular with only 26 starts last term, Wilson may also have penalties in his locker, further increasing his stock. That’s something to keep an eye out for in pre-season, but at this point there’s no doubting Wilson appears to be one of the stronger options available among the budget forwards.

Glenn Murray’s purple patch last season, where he scored six goals and bagged three assists in just six outings, took many FPL owners by surprise. A goal conversion rate of 18.4% in the previous campaign is also very impressive, but with Crystal Palace being linked with the likes of Charlie Austin and Loic Remy, it appears Murray may not start the season as Alan Pardew’s first-choice striker. Should those moves fail to materialise, Murray could warrant some consideration priced at 6.0, but it would be a surprise if there isn’t a new forward at Selhurst Park by the end of the transfer window. Given that Pardew favours a lone striker, there’s further concerns over the playing time concerns for Dwight Gayle, Frazier Campbell and Marouane Chamakh, though Gayle certainly did himself no harm by bagging a hat-trick in the Eagles’ first friendly of the summer last weekend.

At the beginning of last season, Everton’s Steven Naismith was one of the stand-out budget forwards. The Scotland international netted in each of the first three Gameweeks, and ended the campaign with a lofty goal conversion rate of 21.2%, fifth among all forwards. The issue with the 5.5-valued Naismith is playing time, though, with so much competition for the attacking midfield positions behind Romelu Lukaku. Ross Barkley, Kevin Mirallas and new signing Gerard Deulofeu could well fill the three attacking midfield spots, so while Naismith may have short periods in the side, that uncertainty hinders his Fantasy prospects. Arouna Kone comes in at 5.0, but like Naismith, is likely to find himself among the substitutes too often to truly consider him as a contender for our three-man forward lines.

With Claudio Ranieri taking the reigns at the King Power Stadium, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding who will lead the line for Leicester in the season ahead. Leonardo Ulloa, Jamie Vardy, Andrej Kramaric and new signing Shinji Okazaki have all been priced at 6.0 in FPL, with Fantasy managers eagerly awaiting the new manager’s summer line-ups as the Foxes look to continue the form that harvested seven wins and a draw in the final nine fixtures of 2014/15. “The Tinkerman” has already promised not to make too many alterations to Leicester’s approach and it may well be that target man Ulloa will prove the best option – having notched 11 goals, he also ended the season with penalty taking duties. Vardy also enjoyed a successful campaign, scoring five goals and providing 12 assists, while Okazaki arrives having found the back of the net 12 times for Mainz in the Bundesliga last season. Clearly, then, Ranieri has plenty of options and we can only hope he sticks to his word and avoids constant rotation, allowing us a viable option for our three-man frontlines.

Liverpool trio Rickie Lambert, Fabio Borini and Divock Origi are all available at 6.0 or less in FPL. Given the number of recent new additions, the former two look more than likely to make their way through the exit door before the season gets underway. Origi found the net in his first appearance for the Reds in midweek but if Brendan Rodgers opts for a lone striker system, it’s difficult to see him earning many starts, given that Danny Ings, Daniel Sturridge and, potentially, Christian Benteke are likely to be ahead of him in the pecking order.

With Louis van Gaal clearly unconvinced over Javier Hernandez’ (6.0) goal-getting abilities, James Wilson looks likely to be back-up striker for United again. Given that the 5.0-priced youngster made two starts last term, though, it’s fair to say that he’ll struggle to justify any investment unless the Red Devils are hit hard by injury. Van Gaal is likely to field Wayne Rooney as the lone striker and has already hinted that Memphis Depay could also be utilised through the middle, suggesting that Wilson – despite the departure of Robin van Persie and Radamel Falcao – will remain a peripheral figure.

Newcastle’s Ayoze Perez enjoyed a reasonable first year in England last term, scoring seven goals, and carries a 5.5 price tag ahead of the new season. Along with Emmanuel Riviere, it remains to be seen how much playing time the pair will get, with Papiss Cisse the main man at St James’ Park, while at least one new forward is expected to arrive at the club, with Aleksandar Mitrovic and Charlie Austin both targets. Bearing in mind that Steve McClaren operated with a lone striker system at Derby last season, and has rolled out a 4-2-3-1 for both matches in charge, neither look likely to make their way onto our radars.

Cameron Jerome ended last season as Norwich’s first-choice forward, racking up 20 goals and seven assists in the Championship. With Alex Neil yet to strengthen up top, though, it remains to be seen whether Jerome will be nailed on for the season ahead, given that the Canaries boss favours a lone striker system. Certainly, Jerome – at just 5.0 – has the potential to be a real bargain and has scored five times in the first two summer friendlies, albeit against lower level opposition. Ricky van Wolfswinkel (5.0), Lewis Grabban and Gary Hooper (4.5 apiece) are alos kind on the budget but look set to remain behind Jerome in the pecking order for the time being, at least.

Shane Long and summer signing Juanmi hand us cheap routes into the Southampton attack, with both available at 6.0 in FPL. Given he was afforded just 16 starts by Ronald Koeman in the previous campaign, Long looks far from certain to start, whilst Juanmi – at five foot six – is more likely to vie for the attacking roles behind target man Graziano Pelle. The 22-year-old Spaniard did notch eight goals for Malaga last season, however, and once he’s settled in England could be one to monitor later in the campaign.

Tottenham duo Emmanuel Adebayor and Roberto Soldado come in at 6.0 apiece but, unless Mauricio Pochettino changed to a two-man frontline, they’ll mainly be restricted to European duties, with Harry Kane the undisputed number one forward for the north London club.

Stoke’s forward options in the budget price range hold plenty of interest, with Bojan, available at 5.5 in FPL, particularly intriguing. The former Barcelona attacker was beginning to shine at the Britannia when he picked up a cruciate knee ligament injury in January, and should he prove his fitness during pre-season, will definitely be worth some consideration. On the downside, he would likely play just behind a lone striker in Mark Hughes’ preferred 4-2-3-1 system but Bojan was the club’s spot-kick taker prior to his injury, netting in a win against Everton. There’s a chance that new signing Joselu (6.0) could lead the line for the Potters. The former Hannover forward scored eight times in the Bundesliga last season and could challenge Mame Biram Diouf for the striking position or force the former Man United attacker to a role down the right flank. Diouf scored 12 times last term, though, converting an impressive 21.4% of his chances, and could be a real value option if he can step up his goal returns in the season ahead.

Given Sunderland were the joint-second lowest scorers in the top flight last season with just 31 goals, it’s little surprise that all of their forwards come in at 6.0 or less. The Black Cats also took the least amount of shots from inside the box with 219, so it’s hard to be too confident about the Fantasy prospects of Connor Wickham, Jermain Defoe, Steven Fletcher or Danny Graham. Of the four, Defoe, valued at 5.5, probably holds the most appeal given his proven Premier league track record and natural predatory instincts, while Graham, the cheapest of the quartet at 4.5, did gain favour under Dick Advocaat and is worth monitoring during pre-season to see if he stands a realistic chance of nailing down a place in the starting XI. Unless the Sunderland midfield can create more goal scoring opportunities, many may understandably choose to ignore the Black Cats’ attacking options.

New Swansea striker Eder (5.5) has been brought in to provide back-up to Bafetimbi Gomis in much the same way the Frenchman was signed to cover Wilfried Bony last season, so the Portugal international isn’t likely to feature on our radars unless Gomis picks up an injury.

Troy Deeney (5.5) has yet to have played a minute of Premier League football, but the Watford man is currently the most popular forward in the budget price range in FPL, with a 13.5% ownership. Deeney has scored 20,24 and 21 goals in his last three seasons with the Hornets in the Championship and is also the club’s primary penalty taker. Guaranteed playing time also looks assured given he’s the club captain, so there’s little not to like about the Watford front man, who averaged 2.9 shots per match last term. That is slightly down on the figures posted by Austin and Ings (3.6 apiece) during their respective 2013/14 campaigns in the Championship, however. Matej Vydra, and Odion Ighalo both carry 5.0 price tags, though with new manager Quique Sanchez Flores adopting a 4-2-3-1 formation in pre-season, both will be vying for roles in the attacking midfield three behind Deeney. Nonetheless, Ighalo – who notched 20 times last term – could be worth monitoring, having scored five times in pre-season already, albeit against weak opposition.

Brown Ideye (5.5) only showed occasional flashes of his ability at West Brom last season and is unlikely to appear on our radars until he can show some consistency and establish himself in Tony Pulis’ plans. Victor Anichebe (5.0) has never been prolific at Premier League level and isn’t likely to start many matches, with Saido Berahino the first-choice striker at the Hawthorns.

West Ham’s Mauro Zarate (5.5) and Enner Valencia (6.0) feature in the budget category. Much depends on Slaven Bilic’s transfer dealings and new tactics, though – the Hammers boss has already trialled 4-4-2, 4-3-3 and 4-4-1-1 formations this summer and with Diafra Sakho looking nailed-on, the duo’s prospects would take a dent if a lone forward system was preferred. Valencia fired 72 shots last season – four less than Chelsea’s Diego Costa, for example – but a 5.6% goal conversion rate highlights his inability to find the net with any regularity.