The Technical Area – Assessing Pedro’s Chelsea Debut

After quickly concluding a deal to bring Pedro to Stamford Bridge last week, following reported interest from Manchester United throughout the summer, Jose Mourinho immediately handed the Spaniard a starting role for the champions’ trip to West Brom.

It took the new signing just 84 minutes to provide a snapshot of what we can expect in the Premier League. Priced at 9.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Pedro scored the opening goal in the Blues’ 3-2 victory at the Hawthorns, while he also provided the assist for Diego Costa’s strike and earned maximum bonus points on Sunday afternoon.

Having served up a 13-point debut haul, Pedro been subject to a major bandwagon over the last three days, with 240,000 new owners acquired in FPL. With that in mind, we assess the Spaniard’s weekend display as Fantasy managers scramble for his signature.

Chelsea Average Positions versus West Brom

Handed a role on the right of Mourinho’s default 4-2-3-1 set-up, Pedro (number 17) afforded the Blues a little more width than Eden Hazard (number 10) on the opposite flank, whereas Willian (hidden by Radamel Falcao’s number 9) dropped a little deeper in possession in his role behind Diego Costa (number 19).

What’s also noticeable here is that Branislav Ivanovic (number 2) was very withdrawn when on the ball in the right-back berth. Indeed, Cesar Azpilicueta (number 28) was on a par with his fellow full-back when on the ball at the Hawthorns.

Chelsea Involvement

Looking at the involvement stats, Pedro saw far less of the ball than the likes of Cesc Fabregas and Hazard, with 92 and 91 touches respectively – his 54 touches were exactly the same as lone striker Costa. Whereas Fabregas and Hazard produced a touch every 1.0 and 1.1 minutes apiece, Pedro managed a touch every 1.6 minutes – of Chelsea’s ten outfield starters, only Kurt Zouma (1.7) and Ivanovic (2.0) were worse off here.

When you analyse the final third numbers, though, it’s a different story. Pedro jumps up to second behind Hazard for touches (34 to 40), and was again more or less identical to Costa (33).

In terms of frequency of passes received, once again Hazard (every 1.4) and Fabregas (every 1.5) are the main men here. Given that they ranked first and second for key passes (100 and 93) in 2014/15, it’s little surprise that Chelsea are looking to get the duo on the ball as much as possible.

Pedro, on the other hand, is no playmaker. He won’t hog the ball. Instead, his pace, intelligence and movement off the ball into space will be a key facet of the champions’ attack, with compatriot Fabregas explaining that he gives the Blues something different:

“I knew straight away that he would make an impact. It is something that we don’t have in our team, this pacey player that goes behind defenders, that goes one against one. He goes behind defences and stretches them, while Willian and Eden (prefer) the ball to their feet. The mentality of this guy is fantastic. I’m very happy for him.”

What is also noticeable is Ivanovic’s lack of impact as an attacking outlet from the right-back berth. Granted, there could be a number of reasons for this. It may be a lack of confidence after his poor displays in the first two matches or perhaps an indication that his partnership with Pedro on the flank will need more work. Alternatively, Mourinho may have simply told him to rein in his forward forays for now.

Nonetheless, in the final third, the Serbian was overshadowed by Azpilicueta for touches (nine to 12) and passes received (four to ten). Given that he averaged 26.5 touches and 13.5 passes received in the final third over the first two Gameweeks, though, Sunday saw a significant drop-off.

Chelsea Distribution

Looking at the distribution stats, Pedro’s numbers are once again more in line with Costa than Hazard. Whilst Hazard and Fabregas led the way for successful passes (64 and 62), Pedro and Costa were neck-and-neck on 29 apiece. Hazard again bettered his Blues team-mates for successful passes in the final third (25) and served up five key passes for the visitors, which was joint-top for the Gameweek.

Pedro, meanwhile, managed 16 successful passes in the final third – just four less than Fabregas – and, despite failing with five of his six crosses, he still completed 84.2% of his passes in this area, second only to Hazard’s 86.2%. The new boy was bettered only by the Belgian for chances created (three to five), with Costa just behind on two.

In defence, Ivanovic again posted inferior numbers to Azpilicueta, with six successful passes in the final third to eight. The Spaniard also produced far more passes (52 to 31) and successful passes (37 to 26) than the Serbian. Worrying for Ivanovic’s owners, his stats were inferior to Gameweek 1-2, where he averaged 10.5 successful passes in the final third and 3.5 crosses – on Sunday, he produced one single, unsuccessful delivery from out wide.

Chelsea Goal Threat

Costa leads the way this time, with four attempts on goal – all inside the box, which was joint-top for forwards in the Gameweek. Whilst Hazard matched the Spain international for touches in the box (six apiece), he registered just one wayward attempt at the Hawthorns. Although he upped his creativity at the weekend, the Belgian continues to struggle for goal threat and has managed just three attempts in as many appearances.

Pedro, again, was relatively similar to Costa. The new boy produced five touches in the box and a total of three attempts, with two arriving inside the area. Willian also managed a trio of efforts but failed to find the net – perhaps no surprise given that he scored just 3.6% of his chances in the previous campaign.

Conclusions
Obviously, it’s impossible to make any assumptions based on a single match but it’s fair to say that Pedro’s impact in the final third was immediately impressive.

Obviously, it’s nigh on impossible that he’ll average three shots and as many key passes every match but his contribution in the final third – relative to the rest of his team-mates – could well be more in line with Costa, as opposed to Hazard, judging by Sunday’s statistics. As highlighted above, the duo’s underlying numbers for involvement, distribution and goal threat were very similar, though Costa did have a clear edge for shots inside the box.

Whilst Pedro proves an enticing alternative to Hazard in FPL, particularly for those struggling for budget, we perhaps need a few more matches to ascertain whether he’ll prove a viable rival. Given that his impact saw Hazard turn in his most creative display of the season, and Costa produce his most threatening performance, there’s every chance that Pedro’s acquisition could ultimately boost the pair’s points hauls, rather than lessen their potential for Fantasy managers.

Ivanovic owners, meanwhile, will be hoping that the weekend was just a temporary blip and the Serbian can rediscover the raiding runs down the right that were such a feature of Chelsea’s title-winning campaign last term.

*The Technical Area is put together using the statistics available in our members area. For access to such data and tools on every player, team and match of the 2015/16 season, and for exclusive members articles like this, click here for details.