Spot the Differential – Gameweek 13

We call upon some fit-again Fantasy royalty this morning as Man City prepare to welcome Liverpool to the Etihad. Tottenham’s playmaker also earns the nod ahead of four home fixtures in six, whilst Bournemouth supply us with a cut-price out-of-position prospect for our five-man midfields.

Sergio Aguero

With Wilfried Bony ruled out injured, Manuel Pellegrini confirmed on Friday afternoon that Sergio Aguero is set to start against Liverpool later today.

Although his manager also revealed that Aguero won’t get the full 90 minutes, the Argentine marksman is more than capable of delivering explosive returns in limited time, as evidenced when he rattled five past Newcastle United in the span of 20 minutes in his last league appearance.

Across the last three Gameweeks that the 13.0-priced forward featured in, he ranked top among his counterparts for attempts (18), joint-top for shots inside the box (13) and second for shots on target (eight). Illustrating his dominance at the Etihad, Aguero still ranks joint-first among forwards for shots on target (10) at home, while only Graziano Pelle (33) boasts more attempts (24) in front of his own fans.

Having dropped in price to 13.0 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), Aguero sits in just 11% of sides heading into this morning’s deadline – he’s very unlikely to remain such an effective differential for long.

With four home fixtures (LIV, SOU, sto, SWA, ars, SUN) in the next six, the suitors will be circling as we prepare to welcome back last season’s top scorer to domestic action.

Christian Eriksen

In the wake of his free-kick double against Swansea City in Gameweek 8, Christian Eriksen (8.4) has delivered just one assist in four outings. Attacking returns haven’t been forthcoming of late, but the quality of his performances was undeniable over a stretch that Spurs outscored their opponents by nine goals to three.

Across the last four Gameweeks, Eriksen charted top of Tottenham’s midfield contingent for attempts. In addition, the Danish playmaker has fronted the pack in terms of attempts (15) and shots on target (five) since his return to the starting line-up in Gameweek 7. His productivity on the distribution front has been the most impressive facet of his play: Mesut Ozil (23) was the only midfielder to chalk up more key passes than Eriksen (16) in his last four starts.

Harry Kane’s fine form (five goals in three starts) bodes well for Eriksen’s assist prospects ahead of a home tie against West Ham United. The Irons have claimed some big scalps on their travels this term, but they’ve failed to record a clean sheet in seven matches and place second for shots inside the box conceded (63) away from home.

With four home fixtures in the upcoming six (WHU, CHE, wba, NEW, sou, NOR) Eriksen looks to have the perfect platform to get back amongst the points.

Joshua King

Bournemouth’s recent search for a solution to Callum Wilson’s long-term knee injury has seen manager Eddie Howe talking up the prospects of Joshua King (4.6) over the last week or so.

The Cherries boss tasked King with leading the line in the second half of their Gameweek 11 head-to-head with Southampton, before handing him the reins for Newcastle’s visit in the previous league match. Classified as a midfielder in the Fantasy Premier League, the Norway international’s out-of-position potential on a shoestring budget has piqued our interest.

In his first start at the lone-striker berth, King ranked top of his team for shots inside the box (four) and shots on target (three). A lack of quality service would be an understandable concern in light of the Cherries’ recent impotence, yet the underlying stats paint a positive picture from that perspective, given that only Liverpool amassed more key passes (30) than the south-coast club (27) over the last two Gameweeks.

With many Fantasy managers eschewing their five-man midfield strategy in anticipation of Aguero’s return, King could well serve as the perfect enabler. Although Bournemouth are about to embark on a challenging quartet of match-ups (swa, EVE, che, MUN), King’s nominal price point renders him a relatively risk-free acquisition.