Spot the Differential – Gameweek 31

We opt for a trio of kindly priced midfielders for your perusal this Saturday morning. Diego Costa’s suspension sees us call upon one of Chelsea’s young attackers, whilst West Brom and Everton also offer in-form options ahead of their respective home encounters.

Bertrand Traore

As a result of Diego Costa’s two-match suspension, Bertrand Traore (5.4) – who filled in for the Spain international against Stoke City – could be set to spearhead Chelsea’s attack for a pair of promising match-ups (WHU, avl) that may well appeal to those looking for a punt prior to wildcarding in Gameweek 33.

Having served up four goals and an assist in seven league and FA Cup outings this season, Traore – by virtue of his midfielder classification – affords us an out-of-position contender at a budget price point.

Delving into the data highlights the youngster’s threat. The Burkina Faso international has produced attacking returns in all three of his league appearances under Guus Hiddink and fired an attempt on goal every 23.3 minutes, which is all the more impressive given that he started on the right wing against Norwich in Gameweek 28.

Only Liverpool amassed more goals (13) than Chelsea (10) in their last four league ties, illustrating the Londoners’ renewed attacking verve. Moreover, they ranked third for key passes (51), which suggests that their supply lines are strong. Crucially, the fact that West Ham United chart joint-second for shots inside the box conceded (148) in away matches should work to Traore’s advantage at Stamford Bridge as the Blues look to dent their visitors’ prospects of a top-four finish.

Craig Gardner

Similar to Traore, Craig Gardner (5.1) could be one to consider, particularly for those on the search for a pre-wildcard punt. With two goals and one assist in three starts, the Baggies midfielder has emerged as a viable fifth midfielder ahead of two favourable fixtures (NOR, sun). West Bromwich Albion’s relative impotence previously curtailed interest in their attacking recruits, yet Saido Berahino’s return to the starting XI served as a fillip in that respect, sparking a four-match unbeaten streak that’s yielded seven goals.

Excluding their short-term prospects, the Baggies assets harbour additional appeal because of their upcoming double Gameweek 34 (WAT, tot) and absence of a blank in Gameweek 35.

Reflecting the West Midlanders’ more forward-thinking approach, only five midfielders mustered more attempts than Gardener (12) in their last four outings. The former Sunderland man netted a stunning free-kick during that period and remains a real threat from such situations, having chalked up more attempts from set pieces (six) than any of his counterparts.

Notwithstanding Norwich’s recent tightening up at the back, West Brom will still draw encouragement from the fact that their opponents have conceded the joint-third-most goals (32), joint-second-most shots inside the box (148) and most big chances (38) in away fixtures. Furthermore, the Canaries are the only team in the league that is without a clean sheet on their travels, bolstering Gardner’s differential potential.

Aaron Lennon

With Everton facing the prospect of at least two double Gameweeks before the season is out, pinpointing their prime Fantasy options – beyond the obvious pick of Romelu Lukaku – looks key to a strong finish. On that note, Aaron Lennon (5.6) has presented a cogent case for investment with his recent purple patch, tallying four goals and one assist in five starts.

Exploring Lennon’s influence in the final third, he registered twice as many shots on target (four) as Ross Barkley across the Toffees’ last four match-ups and boasts a 42.9% shot-conversion rate in home matches. Allied to that, the former Tottenham Hotspur stalwart placed joint-top among Everton’s midfield starters for key passes (eight) and second for key-pass frequency (one every 42.5 minutes), underlining his dual threat.

Next on the agenda for Roberto Martinez’s team is a home clash against an Arsenal side that have struggled defensively of late, conceding eight goals and nine big chances in their previous four outings. Given that the Toffees sit second only to Man City for goals scored in front of their own fans, the Merseysiders will fancy their chances of maintaining momentum after sweeping Chelsea aside in last week’s FA Cup Quarter-Finals.