Spot the Differential – Gameweek 33

We call upon a couple of overlooked double Gameweek 33 options as the Wildcard fine tuning continues. Southampton’s midfield supplies us with the final selection as Ronald Koeman’s men welcome Newcastle’s generous defence to St Mary’s.

Aaron Lennon

By virtue of Everton’s successive doubles in Gameweek 33 (wat & cry) and Gameweek 34 (SOU, liv), most managers have gravitated towards Ross Barkley in their search for an attacking accompaniment to Romelu Lukaku – indeed, they occupy the top two spots with regards to “transfers in” this week. Despite offering greater form than Barkley (four goals and one assist in seven compared to two goals in 16) and boasting a far cheaper price tag (5.6 to 7.1), Aaron Lennon has garnered just under 2% ownership ahead of this morning’s deadline.

Whilst Lennon doesn’t lay claim to exceptional statistics of late, he mustered two more shots on target (four) than any of Everton’s midfield regulars across his previous six matches. Moreover, he ranked top for penalty-box touches (27) and key passes (10) during that stretch. A small pool of data (11 attempts) skews the data, but it’s also worth noting that Lennon charts top among all midfielders for goal conversion (45.5%) this term.

Although the Merseysiders have failed to score in the last two, it’s worth bearing in mind that faced up against Arsenal and United in those encounters, and the prospect of consecutive road clashes bodes well for an attack that possesses the third-best shot-conversion rate (13.5%) in away fixtures. Lennon’s attacking potential is bolstered further by the revelation that Crystal Palace and Watford recorded two clean sheets between them in their last 12 outings, underlining the obliging nature of their defences.

Dwight Gayle

Considering that Connor Wickham has just been discharged from the treatment room and Emmanuel Adebayor remains doubtful for the weekend, Dwight Gayle (5.1) could be considered the favourite to spearhead the Eagles’ attack for a pair of vital home clashes with Norwich and Everton that may well decide their safety. The Palace marksman scored as a second-half substitute against West Ham United, alerting us to his potential as a budget enabler for wildcarders.

Palace’s recent attacking output suggests there’s scope for one of their forwards to flourish if they can discover some rhythm; although the Eagles faced off against Liverpool, West Ham and Leicester City in their previous quartet of ties, they ranked fifth for shots inside the box (38) and joint-seventh for big chances (six).

Looking at Palace’s pair of opponents, the Canaries have managed a solitary shut-out on the road this season, whilst the Toffees have kept just two shut-outs in nine. There’s no doubt Gayle is a gamble but if he earns enough minutes, the striker could well vindicate Alan Pardew’s backing and fire his side to safety.

Sadio Mane

With many Fantasy enthusiasts blindsided by the inescapable allure of a bumper double Gameweek, in-form single-Gameweek players like Sadio Mane (7.3) could prove to be valuable acquisitions. The Senegalese winger reclaimed his starting berth with a brace against Liverpool in Gameweek 31, before spurning a golden opportunity to open the scoring at the King Power Stadium. Nonetheless, Mane appears invigorated ahead of Southampton’s tantalising home tie against Newcastle United.

Poring over the stats, Mane – despite clocking just 45 minutes against the Reds – places second for shots inside the box (five) and joint-third for shots on target (three) among midfielders in the last two Gameweeks. Throughout the course of the campaign, only Alexis Sanchez has amassed more shots inside the box (60 compared to 56), illuminating Mane’s capacity for explosive returns.

Newcastle’s defensive ineptitude serves as a compelling reason why investing in a Saints attack that charts second for shot-conversion rate (12.2%) in home matches could pay dividends. On that note, the Magpies conceded the second-most goals (14) in their last six outings and have shipped the second-most goals (36) in away clashes. In addition, only Sunderland have recorded fewer clean sheets (four) than the Tynesiders (five) this season.