Spot the Differential – Gameweek 34

We call upon a trio of overlooked double Gameweek options ahead of this morning’s deadline. West Ham and Man United’s lone strikers arrive on our radar and are joined by Liverpool’s summer signing from City as we look to navigate Jurgen Klopp’s rotation plans for the run-in.

Andy Carroll

In the wake of Andy Carroll’s (6.3) captivating hat-trick against Arsenal, it’s impossible to ignore the frontman’s allure ahead of West Ham United’s double Gameweek (lei & WAT). Owing to his excellent form (four goals and one assist in four across all competitions) and the fact that Diafra Sakho is sidelined with a knock, Carroll furnishes us with a secure route into an offense that’s firing on all cylinders, having accrued 10 goals in their last quartet of league clashes.

Carroll posted some truly exceptional underlying statistics last time out, ranking top among forwards for penalty-box touches (13), attempts (10), shots inside the box (nine) and shots on target (five). In terms of his output among counterparts who’ve clocked at least 1000 minutes this term, the former Newcastle United star ranks fifth for shot frequency (one every 25.8 minutes) and fourth for goal frequency (151 minutes), underlining his latent potential as a budget third forward.

Next on the Irons’ agenda is a trip to Leicester City, who recorded seven clean sheets in their last eight home encounters. That being said, the Foxes have conceded 10 more headed attempts (84) than any side, which plays into the hands of a marksman that – despite chalking up just 1058 minutes – charts joint-top among forwards for headed goals (five) and fifth for headed attempts (21). As for Watford, no side surrendered more big chances (13) than the Hornets in their last four outings.

Marcus Rashford

Priced at 4.5, Marcus Rashford – who’s scored three goals in six starts – unsurprisingly emerged as a prime enabler for wildcarders and a budget route into Manchester United’s attack for their mouth-watering double Gameweek (AVL & CRY). The lingering caveat has always been whether Wayne Rooney’s return to action would significantly curtail his playing time, yet Louis van Gaal recently intimated that the skipper could be afforded minutes off the bench against Aston Villa, which suggests Rashford will retain his starting berth.

Focusing on the academy product’s stats, he’s scored at a conversion rate of 43% since being promoted to the first team, illustrating his clinical finishing – indeed, that trait was thrown into sharp relief when he opened the scoring against West Ham in midweek with a sumptuous curling effort. Across his previous four starts, Rashford tallied as many shots inside the box (five) as Anthony Martial, bolstering his appeal as a cheaper alternative.

Ultimately, Villa’s ineptitude serves as the best motivation to source attacking coverage for the Red Devils: in their last six fixtures, the West Midlanders conceded 16 goals, the third-most shots inside the box (55) and three more big chances (18) than any other outfit. Following that match-up, Man United welcome a Crystal Palace unit that’s managed just two clean sheets on the road, which bodes well for the hosts’ offensive prospects.

James Milner

In a Gameweek when squad rotation will doubtless undermine our meticulously crafted plans, James Milner (6.5) could prove a canny alternative. By virtue of Liverpool’s progress in the Europa League and the breadth of form attacking players at Jurgen Klopp’s disposal, Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho are perhaps less assured two starts during their double (bou & EVE). Conversely, Jordan Henderson (injury) and Emre Can (one-match ban and ankle injury worry) are unlikely to feature, ensuring that Milner could retain his spot in the centre of the park.

Milner has been the Reds’ most effective facilitator in recent weeks, bagging five assists in his previous trio of starts in all competitions. With regards to his league form, the ex-Manchester City recruit notched three goals and five assists in his last eight starts. Taking the season as a whole, he’s registered 10 more key passes (50) and 36 more successful crosses (46) than any of his midfield team-mates, demonstrating his strong assist potential.

Liverpool’s Sunday fixture finds them squaring up to a Bournemouth side that charted top for goals conceded (10) in their last four matches. Furthermore, only two teams have shipped more goals on home turf than the Cherries (27). The Merseyside derby also promises to be an open affair, considering that Liverpool recorded 10 goals in their previous four home ties and the Toffees’ defence is struggling for consistency.