Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Gameweek 38

We head into Gameweek 38 with many mini-leagues still on the line, as Fantasy managers seek some last-minute inspiration. This time around, Liverpool’s midweek goal hero is joined by City’s up-and-coming young striker and Southampton’s Senegal marksman in our quest for differential success.

Christian Benteke

Understandably, Jurgen Klopp is primed to name a second-string side for Liverpool’s trip to West Bromwich Albion, given that Liverpool are schedule to clash with Sevilla in the Europa League final on Wednesday. Daniel Sturridge appears unlikely to play any part at The Hawthorns, which paves the way for Christian Benteke (8.0) to spearhead the Reds’ attack. Despite notching just 180 minutes across his previous five appearances, the Belgian frontman mustered three goals and one assist, with a last-gasp midweek leveler at home to Chelsea sure to boost his confidence.

Although Benteke was only granted a 16-minute cameo against the Blues, he charts joint-third for attempts (nine) and joint-second for shots inside the box (seven) among forwards in his last two outings. Taking the season in its entirety, Benteke’s goal frequency (one every 173 minutes) is only bettered by five counterparts who’ve amassed at least 1000 minutes of pitch time. The same can be said of his shot frequency (26.4), which places sixth under the same parameters.

Liverpool’s concluding match-up pits them against a Baggies outfit that’s recorded just five clean sheets at home all term. In addition, only six teams have conceded more big chances on their own turf (30). Liverpool’s attack on the road also measures up favourably – Tottenham Hotspur are the only team that’s chalked up more attempts (272 vs 252) than Liverpool, underlining their swashbuckling style away from home under Klopp.

Kelechi Iheanacho

In the wake of back-to-back braces against Stoke City and Southampton – which boosted his tally to seven goals (695 minutes) for the season – Kelechi Iheanacho (4.8) shot onto our radar as a tantalising budget forward. Having started each of the last three, the Nigerian marksman will be savouring the prospect of taking on a Swansea outfit that’s missing key first-team regulars such as Ashley Williams, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Lukasz Fabianski.

Razor-sharp finishing has been Iheanacho’s most striking attribute, illustrated by the fact that he ranks top among all forwards for shot-conversion rate (31.3%). Moreover, only Sergio Aguero (98 minutes) lays claim to a superior goal frequency (110.7). Illustrating how central he’s become to the Sky Blues’ attack in recent fixtures, Iheanacho ranks joint-second for touches (181) and second for touches in the final third (95) among forwards since Gameweek 35.

Swansea managed convincing victories over Liverpool and West Ham United in their last pair of outings, yet Man City will be heartened that only three teams shipped more goals (nine) in their previous quartet of league ties. The Swans also surrendered the joint-fourth-most shots inside the box (38) and the second-most big chances (13), obliging defensive form that could play into the hands of the league’s top-scoring attack.

Sadio Mane

Given that Sadio Mane (7.4) has recovered from the virus that forced him off early against Spurs, it would be remiss for us not to shine a spotlight on the 5%-owned winger.

Mane – who netted a three-minute hat-trick in the final home clash of last season – boasts five goals in four starts and next faces a Crystal Palace team that will surely be shuffled ahead of their FA Cup final date with Manchester United next weekend.

Scrutinising the underlying stats, Mane ranked joint-top among midfielders for shots on target (seven) across his previous four appearances. It’s also worth noting that, despite registering just 281 minutes, he accrued three more penalty-box touches (31) than any of his midfield rivals. In home matches, the Senegalese wide man ranks second among midfielders for shots inside the box (35) and joint-second for shots on target (18).

Mane has five double-figure hauls to his name this term, which highlights his potential for explosive returns against an Eagles rearguard that places joint-bottom for shut-outs (two) and fourth for goals conceded (31) since Gameweek 20. Alan Pardew’s men will certainly be tested by a Saints attack that bagged 10 goals in their previous trio of home encounters and placed top for goals (11) across their last four outings.

1,881 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ktongue
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    29 points behind a rival in my mini league. My current team and I've already taken a -4.

    Gomes
    Bellerin, Cresswell, Moreno, (Kirchhoff, Targett)
    Payet, Sánchez, Fábregas, Tadic, Townsend
    Agüreo, Giroud (Defoe).

    Was thinking of getting Mane or Eriksen in for Townsend. What do you think?

    1. ninjaskrtel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      I think you'd have to have a miracle to catch your rival. Another hit will just make it less likely

      1. ktongue
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 11 months ago

        So your saying if Payet doesn't play is still not worth -4 to get someone like KDB?

        1. Tony Moon
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 11 months ago

          I'd get KDB or Mane in for Payet (presume you meant Payet not Townsend). It's only -2 in effect as Payet not playing.

          Have to captain someone explosive like Mane though (assuming your rival has Sanchez/Aguero) to stand any chance of making up 29pts.

          1. ktongue
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 11 months ago

            Thanks for the advice. If I have Tadic, who would be more explosive? Mane or KDB?

  2. Live Lad
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Defoe + Payet to Giroud + Mane (-4) ?

    Was ready for Carroll to Giroud for free but if Payet is out, the above is logical.

  3. Chilli2k
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    8 points ahead of main rival. I have 8.5m in the bank, 1 FT and will be using AoA chip.

    My team:

    Mignolet (Robles)
    Bellerin, Gabriel (Simpson, Ake, Sakho)
    Khazri, Noble, Payet, De Bruyne, Sanchez
    Carroll, Aguero, Defoe

    Should I bring in Tadic, Mane or Hazard for Khazri who will seemingly be rested this weekend?

  4. Muzza13
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Defoe out Long in or Willian out Mane in or both for -4?

    1. gwitbrock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      both

  5. Blythy
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Going into the final week with a 40 point lead but my closest rival has a wildcard left....

    Squad is -

    GK - Robles (Schwarzer)

    DEF - Rose - Creswell - Smalling - Fuchs - Moreno

    MID - Tadic - Payet - Sanchez - Townsend - Mahrez

    ATT - Martial - Carroll - Sturridge

    Any Suggestions on Changes?

    Thinking -

    Cech > Robles
    Long > Sturridge

    That would give me -

    Cech

    Rose - Creswell - Smalling

    Townsend - Tadic - Sanchez - Payet

    Carroll - Long - Martial

    Any thoughts / Anyone play it any different and will that be enough to see me over the line? 🙂

    1. ZLNR
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Changes look good

      Learn < vs > I thought you were buying sturridge and was about to berate you 😉

  6. FPLFailing
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I'm trying to go for manager of the month and I have bench boost left to play...do I take a point hit and if so on who?

    Mignolet, Forster
    Bellerin, dier, van aanholt, Lovern, Daniels
    Hazard, mahrez, nasri, king, willian
    Aguero, Kane, martial

    Help!!!

  7. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Really annoyed today that the organisers of my 500 Ml (25 participants by 20 euro each) has told me today that the top prize only gets 170 euro and 2nd 130 euro all the way down to 5th place 30 euro. Tbh I wasn't told this and other players didn't know either (seeing as leading by 17 points nobody is really complaining) but as none of us are sure what if any arrangements were made at start of season I can't really start an argument about it. Big difference between 500 and 170 euro.

    Anyway il have to win it out at least.

    Firmino & Sturridge to

    A) hazard and martial or
    B) mane and Kane/Costa???

    For a hit. 17 points ahead.

    Thanks.

    1. ZLNR
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Great news for 2nd place so if you have a bad week you'll be happy

      I like the look of Martial this week and Mané not a or b

      If I had to choose though martial more important as he's in the teams who will have to win.

      Chelsea may want to prove they're back vs Leicester too

    2. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah...most leagues aren't winner takes all.

      You really need to get this information before entering. They should offer it, but if they don't or if it isn't clear then ask.

      170 nothing to sniff at, but I would expect the winner to take at least 40% of the pot.

  8. nampyeonchoigo
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Payet to KdB, meaning I start KdB and Carroll gets benched.

    Worth a hit?

    OR 665, would love top 500 but don't want to blow 1k so I'm dithering...

  9. Segb89
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Any advice please. Debating selling Kane for Sanchez and making Sanchez captain and bringing in Long. Is this a risky move? Currently 2nd in ML, 19 points behind leader who is unlikely to bring in Sanchez and no Kane up front. Or do I leave as it is and just captain Kane or Aguero? Thanks

  10. Huddersfield
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Cech (hennessey)
    PVA gabriel Mangala ( Clyne Darmian )
    Payet Townsend Redmond Iwobi ( coutinho )
    Kun C kane rashford

    Will PVA start ? Do i need another def ( smalling or baines or Vvd for Darmian ) ?
    Coutinho > tadic or mane or mirallas if the last two start ?

  11. sagewatson
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Which option?

    A. Sturridge and Coutinho out for Tadic and Aguero (-8pts)
    B. Sturridge for Kane (-4pts)

    Also Sanchez or Hazard for captain? only 4pts in front of my league, do i take the risk on hazard?

  12. Gandalf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Sturridge out for -4 hit worth it? Got a Leicester defender and noble coming in if he and firmino both don't play. Can't pick giroud as maxed out on arsenal already and got aguero and carroll. Tough decision!

  13. Mind över Mata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Chasing a 40 point league.

    Is it worth doing Payet -> Tadic (-4) or play Mahrez (che).

  14. Blue Moon Rising
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Am I right in thinking that only 1st place gets a prize in FPL? Nothing for top 20/50?

  15. Punter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    21 points clear and rolling out this squad..

    De Gea
    Bellerin - Smalling - Alderweireld
    Mahrez - Payet - Sanchez (C) - Coutinho - Barkley
    Giroud - Kane

    Schmeichel - Carroll - van Aanholt - Moreno

    How does it look? Good luck everyone

  16. Punter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Why are people saying Payet won't play, why wouldn't he?

  17. Cantonascollar7
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    I'm currently second in ML and 41 points adrift from top spot! I've still got AOA chip to play...

    My team

    Robles Darlow Bellerin Sakho Smalling Kirchoff Simpson KDB Sanchez Payet Fabregss Milner Defoe Carroll Aguero

    0.7 mill in the bank.

    Top spot rival in ML has:
    Schmeichel Robles Simpson Gabriel Rojo Kirchoff lovren Coutinho Sanchez Payet king Hazard
    Carroll martial Defoe

    Used free transfer Milner to Tadic

    Should I do....

    A) Swap Defoe for Long and play AOA - 4 and play Smalling Bellerin at the back

    Or

    B) Payet to Arnautovich and Defoe to Vardy / Martial - 8

    C) Payet to Mane and Defoe to Long - 8

    Think I'll captain Tadic over Sanchez as he doesn't have him?

    Long shot trying to catch him, but worth a shot.
    Any help would be much appreciated!
    Thanks

  18. Cruz88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Just seen Payet is marked as having a knock, anyone got any more news? Worth taking him out?

  19. And nothing else Mata'…
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Attacking headache who to pick:

    A) Deeney - gut feeling , playing Sunderland second team
    B) Vardy - chasing boot
    C) Long - in form

    thank you

  20. And nothing else Mata'…
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Pick pair:

    A) De Bruyne + Deeney
    B) Mane + Vardy
    C) Ayew + Giroud

  21. hotunderthekolarov
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    best defender regardless of cost for today? - i already have fuchs and bellerin, looking for one more to cover pva

  22. BB-8
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Rival 10 points ahead and has sachez(c)
    Who should I captain? Kun or Sanchez?

  23. hotunderthekolarov
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 11 months ago

    Bench Iwobi or Defoe? Also considering Tadic captain or is that nuts?