The Promoted – Middlesbrough

We begin our post-season analysis of the promoted clubs from the Championship by assessing runners-up, Middlesbrough.

The Riverside Stadium outfit will make a belated return to the top flight after seven years in the second tier, securing promotion with a final day stalemate against promotion rivals Brighton.

In this first of three articles on the promoted sides, we will examine Middlesbrough’s record across the 2015/16 season, assess the tactics employed by manager Aitor Karanka and run the rule over their promotion squad, picking out the targets that will likely draw our attention in pre-season.

The Statistics

CS = Clean sheets

Karanka’s side built their successful campaign around an organised and robust defence – Middlesbrough conceded just 31 goals, recording 22 shut-outs. That confirmed them as the best backline in the division and broke a 30-year club record for clean sheets.

Boro’s attack, while effective, was ranked in mid-table by comparison. They scored 63 goals, ranking them eighth in the division after they failed to net in 13 of their 46 matches.

The form at the Riverside Stadium proved crucial, with just two defeats and a paltry eight goals shipped.

Interestingly, Boro suffered nine losses overall, losing just twice to teams who finished in the top eight, suffering seven defeats to teams who ended the season 14th or below.

That suggests that Karanka’s side are able to raise their game for the big occasion, but may struggle to earn results in winnable fixtures – a trend that the Spaniard will be keen to correct.

The Manager

Following the departure of Tony Mowbray, Boro took a chance on Karanka – a manager without a proven record and experience who apparently had little knowledge of Championship football. However, a stint as assistant to Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid ensured there was great expectation upon his arrival to the Riverside in November 2013.

The Spaniard’s tenure has been colourful ever since. Having led them to the brink of automatic promotion in 2014/15, he was critisised for Boro’s failure to seize that opportunity, most notably following the 4-3 defeat to Fulham in the penultimate match of the season, when goalkeeper Dimitrios Konstantopoulos was sent forward for an injury time corner kick, only for Boro to concede with the keeper out of position.

The situation took another twist in March this year when Karanka was involved in a much-publicised dispute concerning the signing of Stewart Downing, leading to him relinquishing his duties for the away trip to Charlton that followed.

The board and the supporters eventually rallied behind Karanka, paving the way for his return, which has ultimately led to the Teeside club’s promotion months later.

A staunch advocate of the 4-2-3-1 formation, Karanka is widely regarded as a defensive manager who puts great emphasis on work-rate and diligence, even from his attacking players. Given Boro’s statistics in their promotion season, there’s no doubt he has created a side that embodies that philosophy.

Fantasy managers should expect the same formation and outlook to provide the cornerstone of Boro’s first season back in the top flight, with defensive assets standing out over any existing or newly-acquired attacking prospects.

In addition, we should be prepared for rotation – particularly in attacking areas. Karanka developed a reputation as the “Teeside Tinkerman” throughout his Championship campaigns and often came under criticism for seemingly turning his back on key players, despite a flow of results…

“I always (pick) the best XI and the best eleven players in my head is the XI I put on the pitch. (Fans) have their best XI but they don’t know how (the players are) training, how they are in terms of injuries or pains. It’s difficult for people to understand a lot of things, but I have to manage it and sometimes when one player is not confident or I can feel he is not confident on the training ground, I have to choose the best XI.”

Should Boro expand the squad and give Karanka more options, we should be wary of this rotation policy extending to the Premier League.

The Promoted Squad

Having missed out on promotion via the play-offs in 2014/15, Karanka kept faith with his formation and tactics and formed the plans around a backbone of two strong central defenders in Daniel Ayala and Ben Gibson, shielded by a pair of combative holding midfielders in Grant Leadbitter and Adam Clayton.

Around this foundation, Boro relied on an attacking spark from the flanks and, in particular the creativity of a “number ten”.

While big signing Stewart Downing begun the season in this role, he eventually gave way and shifted to the flank and it was the influence of Gaston Ramirez, on loan from Southampton, that was to provide a key creative contribution over the second half of the season.

With Jordan Rhodes arriving for a record fee to provide a late flurry of goals, Karanka’s squad did enough to see off Brighton for second spot.

It’s widely expected that the Spaniard will show faith in his squad, handing the opportunity for many of the promoted side to make a claim for regular Premier League starts.

Here’s an assessment of the current squad, researched and contributed by community member and Boro fan Okladomah.

Dimitrios Konstantopoulos (46 starts) – an assured shop-stopper who is strong on crosses, Konstantopoulos instills confidence and boasts a wealth of experience. A fan favourite, he was the undisputed first-choice in the league in 2015/16, achieving that record 22 clean sheets in 46 league games – at 37, though, Karanka seems likely to look at signing a new keeper to challenge his position.

Emilio Nsue (37 starts, 3 sub appearances. 3 goals, 2 assists) – a versatile asset who eventually made the right-back role his own. Nsue – who can also be utilised on the right wing and plays up front for Equatorial Guinea – has the potential to emerge as an out of position prospect if he’s classified as a defender, although a starting role is far from assured. His versatility could also see him demoted to the role of a squad rotation player; a new right-back is likely to be high on the summer shopping list.

Daniel Ayala (34 starts, 1 sub appearance. 3 goals, 1 assist) – a bargain acquisition from Norwich, Ayala is an integral component of the backline. Strong in the air and equally effective on the ground, he averaged 6.3 clearances and 3.5 interceptions per appearance, which indicates that he’ll be a “magnet” for bonus points, whilst Ayala also possesses a goal threat from set-plays. Injuries are a concern and he also received seven bookings from his 35 appearances, so could very well trouble the suspension tightrope.

Ben Gibson (32 starts, 1 sub appearance, 1 goal) – despite being the chairman’s nephew, nepotism is not at play here. Gibson is a strong centre-back who reads the game well. He’s not the most competent with the ball and could get found out, while he also fails to match Ayala for bonus point potential: he is less dominant in the key areas – clearances, blocks and interceptions (CBI). Nonetheless, Gibson looks certain to present an assured and consistent route into the Boro defence and could win suitors if he’s priced kindly in relation to team-mates.

George Friend (39 starts, 1 sub appearance, 1 goal, 2 assists) – regarded by many as the best left-back in the Championship, the £100,000 signing from Doncaster is a fans’ favourite. “Handsome George” suffered a dip in performance last season but is still considered a superb prospect. An aggressive, intelligent reader of the game, Friend registered 2.5 interceptions per match with 2.3 tackles won. He can also bomb forward to provide width, although his end product could be better. An assured starter and a potential ever-present, Friend could challenge Ayala for bonus potential if he can improve his attacking output.

Grant Leadbitter (39 starts, 2 sub appearances, 4 goals, 3 assists) – Captain and one of two defensive midfielders in Karanka’s preferred formation, Leadbitter is the main motivating force in the side. He’ll likely retain duties on free-kicks and penalties, having rotated the former with Gaston Ramirez and Stewart Downing, and could offer some potential in the fifth midfielder slot, depending on his price point. However, there are some that feel that Karanka will look to replace him with concerns on his age and ability to step up a level – a lack of pace and agility may find him out. Leadbitter is also a card magnet have collected 11 bookings over the season.

Adam Clayton (41 starts, 2 sub appearances, 1 goal, 1 assist) – a vital cog in the Boro machinery, the former Leeds and Huddersfield man breaks up play with his aggressive tackling and ability to intercept passes. While Clayton’s overall contribution and key statistics in areas such as passing completed and tackles are impressive, his attacking output is extremely limited; that’s likely to see Clayton’s importance to Boro overlooked across many Fantasy games. He will likely be a factor, however, given that, when he’s absent, Karanka’s defence is far more exposed which could knock on to Boro’s clean sheet potential. Clayton is very prone to disciplinary issues: having picked up 13 yellow cards last season, at least one Premier League suspension seems likely.

Adam Forshaw (9 starts, 20 sub appearances, 2 goals, 2 assists) – a skillful central midfielder mainly used as an impact sub. Forshaw can play in the centre or as a “number ten” and with his excellent passing skills, has the potential to create chances but lacks consistency and most importantly, assured pitch time.

Stewart Downing – (40 starts, 5 sub appearances, 3 goals, 5 assists) – while he’s a known name and a big money signing, Downing undoubtedly failed to live up to expectations and rarely offered the performances to influence matches over the campaign. Downing started life at Boro in the number ten role but was sacrificed for former player Diego Fabbrini and subsequently Gaston Ramirez. The switch saw him play left or right wing, where he again failed live up to his billing. While Downing offers a wealth of top-flight experience, it’s questionable whether he can raise his game to replicate the form and points output he demonstrated in spells at West Ham.

Albert Adomah (36 starts, 7 sub appearances, 6 goals, 5 assists) – a tricky and pacey winger who can play on either flank and has been likened to Palace’s Yannick Bolasie. An ability to make surging runs and beat his man makes Adomah a potentially exciting Fantasy prospect, although, like Bolasie, his form can dip alarmingly at times.

Christhian Stuani – (20 starts, 16 sub appearances, 7 goals, 1 assist) – the Uruguayan has played on the right wing as direct competition for Adomah and has shown decent ability which has kept him in Karanka’s plans. Unfortunately, his aggressive tendency means he can get on the wrong side of referees, which, along with questionable pitch time, makes him unlikely to tempt Fantasy investment.

Jordan Rhodes (13 starts, 5 sub appearances, 6 goals, 2 assists) – signed for a princely sum of £9 million from Blackburn Rovers (rising to £11 million following promotion) Rhodes arrived on Teeside burdened with huge expectation but has repaid that hefty fee, in part at least. An intelligent player who toils for the team, Rhodes undoubtedly relies on his a eye for an opportunity and movement off the ball to fetch goals. A lack of pace can lead him to being isolated, though, and may yet see Rhodes struggle in the top flight as a lone striker.

David Nugent (24 starts, 14 sub appearances, 8 goals, 7 assists) – a player we know well from previous stints in the Premier League, Nugent is an extremely hard worker who makes intelligent runs off the ball and can cause defenders problems. However, age is clearly a factor and this will likely limit his role next season.

Potential Targets

Boro will doubtless look to strengthen and “upgrade” their squad in all areas.

Only last week Chairman Steve Gibson has announced the club’s intent, conveying a strong message to fans ahead of the summer…

“A lot of the work has been done in terms of recruitment for next season and thankfully we can press ahead with plan A. We know our targets and we can start that process…we are a club with no debt, we own the stadium and we own the training ground. We’ll have to make some investment in the stadium, a lot has changed in the seven years we have been out of the Premier League. So there will be a small investment in that, but other than that every penny we’ve got will be to improve the squad.”

Despite having funds available, an extensive overhaul seems unlikely. There is a strong belief that Karanka will seek to build around the foundation of the side that has earned promotion, adding depth and injecting more experience.

Gaston Ramirez will undoubtedly be the first name discussed.

An inspired loan signing from Southampton in January, Ramirez has been an integral part of the success story in 2016 having been handed the freedom of the number ten role. His creativity, excellent range of passing and vision makes him the ideal playmaker and his dead-ball delivery is also a key factor.

Signing Ramirez on a full-time basis will likely be a major priority and certainly something that the fans will demand. Ramirez has, of course, failed to deliver in the top flight previously and so the jury remains out on the Uruguayan. However, there’s little doubt that he’s played some of his best football in England under Karanka which hints at Ramirez offering huge potential as a Fantasy prospect if he settles on Teeside.

Elsewhere the priorities are likely to be between the posts, with a replacement for Konstantopoulos lined up, and up front, as Boro seek a new source of goals. With Rhodes and Nugent the only current options as strikers, a lack of pace is a real concern.

That striker, plus Ramirez may well be the only “flair” players brought in, with top-flight experience and suitability to Karanka’s philosophy and style the key factors guiding business.

In defence there are already hints that Karanka has targeted the right-back area as a position in which to strengthen. Tomas Kalas was brought in on loan from Chelsea over the previous two seasons and made 19 starts last term: he could be explored as an option for a return, as could fellow loanee Ritchie de Laet from Leicester.

Alvaro Arbeloa is another name apparently being discussed, with Karanka possibly using his connections back at his former club to influence a deal for the experienced former Liverpool full-back, who is currently out of contract following his spell at Real Madrid. Aissa Mandi, an Algerian international, has also been reported as a target.

Elsewhere, the names currently being put forward by the local press are again based on a policy of recruiting experience. Stoke City’s Jon Walters is a player who is likely to attract the attention of all the promoted teams given that he seemingly remains unsettled at the Britannia.

Meanwhile, West Brom’s James Morrison is a proven Premier League schemer who is also out of contract and being lined up for a return to Boro according to reports. Indeed, it’s stated that the club are willing to break their wage structure in order to acquire Morrison.