After last week’s launch of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, our Projections and Rate My Team tools have been updated with initial numbers in our Members Area and are now live.
Our members can now get access to these areas via the menu bar and start putting both to use in their pre-season selections.
We will be tweaking this numbers on a daily basis as new players enter the game and as the summer friendlies reveal more on likely starting lineups and tactics.
Once again this term, the projections are based on the Rate My Team statistical model, developed by Chris Atkinson.
Below you’ll find an FAQ on our Projections and Rate My Team, plus links to movies with Chris that talk you through the functionality of the tool and even the methods that go into building and maintaining it week on week.
Access to these tools requires Membership and these are available for the pre-season price of £12.50 (RRP £15.00). Registered users can upgrade their accounts via this link, while new users can register as members here.
View this page for full details on all our benefits for Members.
How do I use the Projections?
Crucially, these tables can be used as another opinion-former when comparing players. Every player is rated for goals, assists, clean sheets etc based on values created by the “Rate My Team” statistical model – the values returned for each player are the expected values in accordance with its calculations.
A good way of thinking about them is to consider them average values for each player. If the season was played out 500 times, the values you’ll find in these projection tables are the average that the model would expect the player to score in each Gameweek.
One of the most useful aspects of the Projections is the value column. You can sort by this to find the best value (Points Per FPL Million) delivered by players in each position.
With tables for the season and the opening six Gameweeks, you can get a view on long-term and short-term returns and value.
What are these values based on?
The Rate My Team statistical model is a complex beast – it uses historical data stretching back a number of seasons and, of course, specific player and team data.
When generating the player values, the model looks at the specific fixture in each Gameweek, assessing the strength of both teams before calculating the likely team goals scored and how these goals will translate to specific player stats. The probability of a player taking part in the match is also a key ingredient – factors such as rotation, injuries and suspensions are taken into account and fed into the algorithm.
When will these Projections be updated?
We will update the projections almost each day in the pre-season. As we get more data on likely first choice lineups and as the transfer market moves to cast doubt over starters, we will adapt and tweak the model accordingly. A new player can have a major impact on the projections and Rate My Team, influencing the projected output of his new team-mates.
The projections will also be updated throughout the season – again, almost on a daily basis, providing a week by week view of what the model expects each player to score for the remaining Gameweeks to help guide your selections and transfers. Major updates are made on both Tuesday and Friday in order to build the latest team news into the numbers.
What is Rate My Team?
Rate My team is a statistical model built specifically to assess every player in the Premier League and return their expected values for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points in a given Gameweek. The system is a complex and thorough one which, of course, plots the probabilities of a player’s time on the pitch, their expected number of goals, assists, bonus points, yellow and red cards, clean sheets, own goals, goals conceded and saves.
The strength of the opponent they are facing in a given Gameweek is also crucial; so every team has an attacking, defensive rating, every player a probability of playing a given match with injuries, suspensions and international absence factored in.
How Can It Help Me?
If you’re a member you can use the Rate My Team tool in a number of ways. Firstly, you can use it to predict what specific players will score, on average, over the next X number of Gameweeks. You have a players table that can be filtered by position or FPL cost and which can be extended to show any number of Gameweeks. You can also sort on “Value” to find those players projected to offer the best points per million return.
However, this is just one part of the functionality. Once the season starts, Rate My Team can also analyse your existing FPL lineup, recommend captains, vice captains, your bench and order of substitutes and allow you to model your future transfers.
How Accurate is Rate My Team?
We’re not going to try and claim that Rate My Team is X% accurate – we’ve never attempted to track a figure, focusing our efforts on keeping the tool up to date to serve those who use it.
Instead what we will say is that the tool was used on a weekly basis by Fantasy Football Scout member Ed Masters who finished third in the FPL last season – check out his interview with us here.
Before that, both Tom Fenley and Simon March were members of Fantasy Football Scout and also used Rate My Team – Tom and Simon were FPL champions in 2014/15 and 2013/14.
We’ve previously created a number of movies, together with the creator of Rate My Team Chris Atkinson, which explain the tools in full detail. You can view these below.
Projections & Rate My Team Preview
The Build My Team Feature
Rate My Team – Under the Hood
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