Spot the Differential – Gameweek 18

With less than 24 hours remaining until the Boxing Day deadline, we pause to reveal our three differentials for Gameweek 18.

We call upon a trio of big-name midfielders, all with ownership below the 10% mark and all afforded enticing match-ups over the upcoming round of fixtures.

Paul Pogba

While it’s been Zlatan Ibrahimovic who has attracted a surge in transfer traffic over the past eight days, his Manchester United team-mate Paul Pogba could also be set to flourish over the next two home fixtures against Sunderland and Middlesbrough.

The Frenchman has tallied a goal and two assists over the last five matches and is beginning to exert his influence with every passing Gameweek.

Pogba ranks joint-second among midfielders for shots on target (six) over the last four, while he’s also created seven chances over that period.

The former Juventus star is currently owned by just 9.4% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bosses but, setting us back just 8.3, he is beginning to look like a viable option for our five-man midfields, particularly with two tempting home fixtures beckoning.

Sunderland have generally improved at the back of late, but have still allowed five goals in their last two away trips, suggesting that Jose Mourinho’s side have to be backed to breach the visitors’ rearguard.

Middlesbrough are likely to provide stiffer resistance having conceded just nine goals in eight away fixtures. However, having shipped three to Liverpool last time out, United will again be widely fancied to find joy against Aitor Karanka’s disciplined backline.

For those unable to stretch to the funds required to recruit Ibrahimovic, Pogba presents an intriguing alternative and a powerful differential – at least over the next two Gameweeks.

Cesc Fabregas

With N’Golo Kante suspended for the home clash against Bournemouth on Boxing Day, Cesc Fabregas looks destined to earn a recall in the middle of the park for Chelsea.

The Spanish midfielder has sparkled when given the opportunity to impress, registering a goal and two assists in his last four appearances, with his underlying statistics suggesting that such output can be sustained.

Over the last four Gameweeks, Fabregas, who is available at just 6.9 in FPL, has created a chance every 35.1 minutes, while he’s registered a goal attempt every 49.2 minutes.

By comparison, Eden Hazard has only created a chance every 89.7 minutes over the same spell, while the Belgian also trails for shots on goal, managing an effort every 67.3 minutes.

Given that only Swansea City (11) have conceded more goals than Bournemouth’s nine over the last four Gameweeks, the Boxing Day match-up promises much for the 1.8%-owned Fabregas.

It is a blow that Diego Costa is also suspended, considering Fabregas’ connection with the forward, but Michy Batshuayi’s pace to run beyond the defence could allow the Spaniard to produce some trademark defence-splitting through-balls.

There are no guarantees regarding Fabregas’ playing time beyond the Bournemouth fixture, although with the leaders facing Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 20, he could well be retained for the visit of Stoke prior to that.

With Nemanja Matic teetering on the suspension tightrope, Antonio Conte could well keep faith with Fabregas and rest the Serbian to ensure he has options for the meeting with Spurs.

Raheem Sterling

After producing a goal and an assist in his last two outings, following seven consecutive blanks, now could be the time to reconsider Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling.

Priced at 7.6, the midfielder was a hot property at the start of the season, registering four goals and three assists in the first six Gameweeks.

Up against bottom side Hull City on Boxing Day, Sterling looks to have the ideal platform to maintain a recent resurgence in form.

The Tigers have conceded eight goals in their last four matches and, over that period, they rank second for big chances (nine) and for third for shots inside the box conceded.

City’s 2-1 victory over Arsenal should see Pep Guardiola’s side enter this match with confidence restored, with Sterling a strong contender to take advantage at the KCOM Stadium.

Rotation remains a concern, with Guardiola blessed with a wealth of options to choose from in midfield areas. However, having started in the false nine against Arsenal, Sterling looks poised to hold down that role on Humberside.