Spot the Differential – Gameweek 27

The first double Gameweek of the season has seen us plump for midfielders from Manchester City and Stoke City, while Swansea City’s soft upcoming schedule, along with the fact that they play in Gameweek 28, has seen us turn to lone striker.

Kevin De Bruyne

With Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane joining Sergio Aguero in this week’s Scout Picks, Kevin De Bruyne wins the vote as our City differential for double Gameweek 27 clashes away to Sunderland and at home to Stoke.

The two fixtures look hugely promising regarding the prospects of the City attack, with Sunderland sitting second for big chances conceded over the last four matches with 10, while the Potters have shipped four goals in each of their last three away matches to top six clubs.

De Bruyne’s underlying statistics from City’s last four league clashes offer encouragement, with the midfielder having created eight chances, while he’s also registered nine goal attempts over the same period, with seven arriving from inside the box.

So while De Bruyne has been an underachieving Fantasy asset so far this season – relative to his 10.5 price tag in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) – with just four goals and 12 assists to his name, he could be worth a gamble over the double.

He sits in just 7.8% of FPL squads, and having started City’s last 12 league matches, looks a good bet to be named in the first XI for both fixtures.

So while much attention regarding City attacking players has focused on the aforementioned trio, it’s possible that De Bruyne could be a worthwhile investment for those whose budget can stretch that far.

He also looks a good option for those desperate to make up some lost ground, with the Belgian snapped up by less than 30,000 FPL managers so far this week, compared to over 50,000 for Sane, and 175,000+ for both Sterling and Aguero.

Marko Arnautovic

It’s Stoke match-up against Middlesbrough this afternoon that has primarily brought Marko Arnautovic to our attention.

While ‘Boro have only conceded three goals in their last four matches, they do rank joint-fourth for the most shots conceded inside the box over that period with 38.

The Potters are expected to put in a much-improved performance after last week’s chastening 4-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, with Mark Hughes likely to have taken his squad to task during the week.

Although the City clash will be a testing one for Stoke, Pep Guardiola’s men have conceded in each of their last four at the Etihad, offering hope that the Potters could get on the scoresheet on Wednesday night.

Arnautovic, who’s available at 7.1 in FPL, has only produced two goals and an assist in his last six outings, but having registered 11 goals and six assists last term, he has previously shown the quality to shine as a mid-priced Fantasy asset.

The big attraction regarding the Austrian is that he’s currently owned by just 1% of FPL bosses, so if you’re worried about loading up on too many City players, he could provide a different route into taking advantage of the double.

Fernando Llorente

While City and Stoke have dominated our thoughts this week, it can’t be forgotten that just eight teams are set to play in Gameweek 28.

Players who face a fixture next weekend remain desirable, then, and Swansea City’s Fernando Llorente looks to have moved himself to the front of the queue among the low-to-mid-price forwards.

The Spaniard, who costs just 6.3 in FPL, registered his ninth goal of the season in last weekend’s 3-1 defeat to Chelsea, and now looks a great option ahead of some very favourable fixtures (BUR, hul, bou, MID) over the next four Gameweeks.

Looking at this afternoon’s match-up, Llorente, who offers a huge threat from set-plays, could take advantage against a Burnley side that has allowed the second-most chances from set-pieces this season with 119.

Next weekend’s opponents, Hull City, ironically sit third in the same category, having allowed 116 chances from set-plays, while no team has conceded more goals than Bournemouth’s 12 over the last four matches.

The upcoming schedule looks very kind for Llorente, then, and while Gylfi Sigurdsson remains the standout option from the Swans’ attack, the 6%-owned Spaniard could also thrive over the next month.