Paddy Says…Euro 2012

With just hours to go before the Fantasy deadlines close, we thought a cheeky glance at Paddy Power’s odds would be in order, just to check how our bookmaker friends view the form prior to the tournament kick-off this evening…

To Qualify From the Groups

Group A

• Russia 1.44
• Poland 1.72
• Czech Republic 2.20
• Greece 2.50

Paddy are backing Russia to top the opening group and one look at their recent performances shows just why. Dick Advocaat’s side arrive on the back of a 14 match unbeaten run and finished their warm-up matches with a 3-0 hammering of Italy last Friday evening; given their recent form, Paddy’s odds seem relatively kind here. Poland’s home support, combined with strong defensive displays and the goal threat of Robert Lewandowski, make them second favourites, while Czech Republic and Greece are the outsiders. Paddy sees this group as the closest of all to call, with the Greeks unbeaten qualifying campaign an obvious factor in their fairly shortened odds of 2.50.

Group B

• Germany 1.28
• Holland 1.50
• Portugal 2.10
• Denmark 5.00

Paddy are firmly behind Germany to emerge top of Group B. One of only two teams to win all of their qualifying matches, Joachim Low’s side are filled with attacking menace and racked up 34 goals over their 10 group games. Featuring many of the Bayern Munich side and topped off with the creative genius that is Mesut Ozil, they have the potential to run amok up front – they are resultantly priced at 1.28. Holland have clearly given Paddy plenty to ponder. The Dutch have the lowest odds of any second-favourite and, with Wesley Sneijder pulling the strings and Robin Van Persie leading the line, could push the Germans all the way. Portugal have failed to sparkle in recent matches but, despite recent back-to-back friendly defeats, Paddy clearly reckons the threat of Cristiano Ronaldo still affords them a chance. Much to the chagrin of Nicklas Bendtner, no doubt, Denmark are given little hope here at 5.00.

Group C

• Spain 1.11
• Italy 1.66
• Croatia 2.62
• Ireland 4.33

The defending champions are clear favourites in Paddy’s book and, priced at 1.11, have the shortest odds of any team to reach the knockout stages. Similar to Germany, Vicente Del Bosque’s side won all of their qualifying matches and, with the experience of winning trophies behind them, boast a squad with very little weaknesses. Italy are rated as second favourites here, in spite of a lack of recent game time and a spate of call-offs that has thrown Cesare Prandelli’s plans into disarray. The Republic of Ireland’s odds are perhaps reflective of their lack of attacking threat, though with their resilience at the back and settled first-team lineup, Paddy’s odds look kind in comparison to Croatia.

Group D

• France 1.44
• England 1.57
• Urkraine 2.29
• Sweden 2.87

England and France were previously joint favourites for this group but the odds have shortened for Les Bleus to 1.44. A 21-game unbeaten run, capped by a midweek 4-0 hammering of Estonia where Franck Ribery and Karim Benzema ran riot, has seen the French rise in Paddy’s estimations. Co-hosts Ukraine are third-favourites to qualify; despite a couple of defeats and a food poisoning scare, Paddy still prefers them to Sweden. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and co arrive on the back of a four-game winning streak and look decent value here at 2.87.

To Reach Semi-Finals

• Spain 1.44
• Germany 1.57
• Holland 2.00
• France 2.75
• England 3.25
• Italy 3.40
• Portugal 3.50
• Russia 4.00

Faith in Spain and Germany is clearly unwavering. Bearing in mind that Paddy expects both to win their groups, games against the runners-up in Group D and A respectively would afford both a strong chance of progress to the final four. Coming in at 2.00, Holland are third favourites to reach the semis; Paddy clearly reckons Group B is the strongest, then, given the Dutch are rated as second best behind Germany there. France are next up, though England and Italy are less fancied to reach the semis, while Russia are the only side from Group A in the top eight; a price of 4.00 could be tempting for Dick Advocaat’s dark horses.

Least Goals Conceded

• Spain – 7.00
• Holland – 9.00
• Germany – 9.00
• France – 10.00
• England 10.00
• Italy – 10.00
• Russia -11.00
• Portugal – 11.00
• Poland – 15.00

For goals conceded, Spain, once again, have the lowest odds. Mesmerized by their tiki taka passing game, Paddy has Del Bosque’s side priced at 7.00 here, with Holland and Germany following close behind. England’s back-to-back clean sheets under Roy Hodgson have them on a par with France and Italy; the latter’s defensive disruptions and recent 3-0 loss to Russia have dented Paddy’s confidence. Poland look decent at 15.0, bearing in mind they arrive on the back of five clean sheets, while Russia may also appeal – Advocaat’s men have shipped just two goals in their last 11 matches.

Leading Scorer

• Van Persie – Holland – 10.00
• Gomez – Germany – 10.00
• Benzema – France – 13.00
• Ronaldo – Portugal – 15.00
• Torres – Spain – 17.00
• Llorente – Spain – 17.00
• Klose – Germany – 19.00
• KJ Huntelaar – Holland – 19.00
• Lewandowski – Poland – 21.00
• Muller – Germany – 29.00
• Podolski – Germany 29.00
• Kerzhakov – Russia – 34.00

Robin Van Persie has joined Mario Gomez as joint-favourite in the last few days, with the Arsenal skipper now looking likely to lead the line for Holland. Karim Benzema’s odds have shortened from 17.00 to 13.00 this week on the back of his brace against Estonia, while Paddy have also dropped Fernando Torres’ odds to 17.00 – mirroring that of Spain team mate Fernando Llorente. Paddy clearly reckons Miroslav Klose will play second fiddle to Gomez in the German attack and have shifted his odds from 17.00 to 19.00, while Robert Lewandowski’s odds have dropped from 26.0 to 21.0, with the Poland forward’s home advantage influencing Paddy’s decision.