Pro Pundit Teams

How ‘Endowment Effect’ alters judgement of underperforming FPL assets

In my previous article, I talked about how ‘Loss Aversion’ (our tendency to fear losses about twice as much as we value gains) can cause FPL managers to hold on longer than they should, to players who are underperforming. This week, I’ll be discussing an arguably even more irrational cause for the same behaviour: the ‘Endowment Effect’.

Like Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to overvalue something we own, irrespective of its objective value. 

For some reason, most studies of the Endowment Effect seem to have focused primarily on the economics of coffee mugs with various findings such as that, when somebody takes possession of a mug, they are found to typically want twice as much money to sell that mug as they would be willing to pay for the exact same type of mug. Some people are unwilling to even consider selling their mugs, seemingly at any price, with one notable example involving a student turning down $1,000 from their professor for a mug they had just been given. I know what you’re thinking; what a mug.

Some scientists believe that the Endowment Effect is simply an extension of Loss Aversion and there is some evidence for that. However, other analysis has suggested that the feeling of ‘ownership’ of something establishes a bond between object and owner. Some have gone so far as to suggest that such an object, whatever it might be, becomes internalised as a part of our personality and, thus, to give it away or even sell it would effectively be to lose a part of our ‘self’. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective as, without the capacity to form such attachments, we wouldn’t feel attached to anything or anyone.

So how might the Endowment Effect manifest itself with regards to Fantasy Football? Well, anybody who has played a Fantasy Football draft game has probably experienced how difficult it is to make transfers with other managers in your league. They either won’t budge at all or they want something ridiculous like, Harry Kane (£11.0m) for Shane Long (£5.2m) as part of the deal. And this stubbornness seems to apply however fair the proposed deal may be. This is very likely the Endowment Effect in practice.

But we also form these attachments in Fantasy Premier League even when there is nobody else on the other side of the deal. Throughout my time playing FPL, I have definitely chosen players on the basis of sentiment (how else could I explain my three-season ‘Chris Brunt Era’?) and I know I’m not the only one. 

I see people commenting all the time about having a ‘soft spot’ for a certain player or expressing grief because they’ve been forced to transfer them out. Often simply ‘liking a player’ is cited as the primary reason for transferring a player in, above any performance metrics or rational expectation of future points. Alternatively, “he’s done well for me in the past” is another oft-seen justification.

Typically, this parasocial relationship we sometimes have with players seems to originate from them doing well for us in the past and, I’d argue, that this is particularly strong when that player was a differential at the time. I would suggest that these types of players come to form part of our personalities as Fantasy managers and having them in our team reinforces that sense of individual identity. No wonder, then, that we often find it so difficult to transfer such players out. 

As a result of this attachment, however, we are likely to give such players more time than they perhaps deserve or might be conducive to maximising our rank. We might even hold onto them through injury or suspension. This sentimental attachment to underperforming players will inevitably become problematic as it may well cause us to miss out on better opportunities.

How Leeds restricted De Bruyne to unfortunate FPL blank in Gameweek 4

So what can we FPL managers do to avoid the Endowment Effect? The obvious answer would be to try not to get too attached to certain players though, as discussed, this is easier said than done.

Perhaps the best way would be to adopt our own individual objective standards for player-related decisions. That could, for example, involve establishing a rule by which a player can only blank, say, three times before he is transferred out or can only miss one or two Gameweeks maximum through injury.

I wouldn’t necessarily recommend being too intransigent about following through on such a rule if it doesn’t make sense in context (e.g. the player is about to embark on an amazing run of fixtures) but having such it in place will at least help you engage the logical part of your mind over the more emotional one and this should help improve the quality of your decision-making.

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2,012 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Inazuma X1
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Does anyone know why Grealish gave the pen to Watkins and is Watkins the designated pen taker for Villa now?

    1. Weeb Kakashi
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Sadly Grealish did not tell us.
      Watkins scored. He keeps them.

    2. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Dunno what happen , grealish already grab the ball and he gave to Watkins

    3. Mile Plankton
      • 8 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Grealish have Watkins in his FPL team.

    4. Amey
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      They had an argument over that.
      Grealish was going to take it i suppose but Watkins took the ball from him.
      It was. A cool pen so you'd think he'll take the next one

      1. FantasyHero
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        Watkins took it from him? I thought Grealish gave it to him (for morale boost or whatever)
        If you are right tho, arguing with the captain...I doubt grealish will not be taking penalties going forward.

  2. mlm
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Martinez (Martin)
    Robertson Chilwell Zouma (KWP Mitchell)
    Salah Son Ziyech Grealish Zaha
    Kane(c) DLC (Brewster)

    0.4ITB

    GTG?

    1. gellinmagellan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Looks good!

    2. Garth Marenghi
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Yes

    3. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      You're all set.

  3. gellinmagellan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    1. Will Reece James play?
    2. Does it make sense to bench Pulisic for Soucek (even with 2 FTs)?

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      not sure, it could be azpi. I would start Puli in the off chance he gets started if you do keep. With an FT I might consider selling unless you're confident in Soucek

    2. Garth Marenghi
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Probably transfer pulisic

      1. gellinmagellan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        Thanks!

    3. FantasyHero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Transfer puli

  4. RIDZ
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    On WC,

    Lamptey Zouma Bellerin Kilman Justin

    Is it necessary to keep Justin?
    Or Kilman to Lewis as he dropped to 4.3

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Not necessary to keep Justin on a WC imo, might go for targett or another villa defender to hit their run if that interests you.

    2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Sell Justin, after the international break Ricardo will return and whilst he might get slowly eased in, it's a transfer waiting to happen no matter what.

    3. FantasyHero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      West ham defender instead of Justin imo
      Lewis over kilman

  5. Nice to Finally Michu
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Hoping you're all doing well amidst this busy week. How is the side looking here? Good to for the gameweek?

    McCarthy (Steer)
    Alexander-Arnold Dallas Robertson
    Ziyech(C) Trossard Bowen Sterling(VC)
    Calvert-Lewin Adams Werner

    1st Sub: Walker-Peters
    2nd Sub: Bissouma
    3rd Sub: Ferguson

    0 FT, 5.4 ITB

  6. Weeb Kakashi
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Lampards presser before deadline?

  7. Groß Point Blank
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Stuck on Robbo --> Chilwell or Cresswell?
    Can anyone convince me which one is the better pick?

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      I think Chilwell looks fantastic and is probably the best defender to bring in with those next 4

    2. Garth Marenghi
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Chillwell

    3. Mile Plankton
      • 8 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Chilwell, no doubt.
      Cresswell is without attacking potential at CB. Chilwell is very dangerous going forward.

    4. FantasyHero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Chillwell is likely best defender right now. So him
      Creswell is good too...but no comparison here.

  8. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    My plan from the start of the season was to keep Kane until GW9 if he was doing well, then sell him to make the most of City's fixtures. That plan is kind of making me nervous right now, it doesn't make any sense to sell someone in this form... Then again, surely de Bruyne + Watkins outscores Kane + Trossard for GWs 9-15 or so?

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      That move alone though looks great to me. I think you're doing the right thing to follow through with it

      1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
        • 4 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        It is a great looking move, but in the end Kane is at such huge ownership right now in my MLs that any performance from him would hurt me a lot. It would be a gamble. Hopefully the fixtures this week show some improvement from Man City and Villa so I can feel a bit better about my decision...

        1. Nice to Finally Michu
          • 7 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          MCI, che, ARS, cry, LIV are atrocious fixtures. Would you captain him for any of those? Sure Palace away gameweek 12 is fine but Liverpool have fulham away. In my mind, can't justify a player priced at about 11 that you won't captain until GW 16 at earliest. Let those in your ML hold on to him. If you view KdB as a captainable asset then the decision is made more simple too. If not, perhaps looking at Sterling. The Trossard > Watkins move is one i intend to make from GW 10 to GW 12 to bring Salah back myself

          1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
            • 4 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            That's all true, and it's my reasoning as well. It just hurts to sell such a loyal servant 🙁 plus I have a sneaky feeling Spurs will have more fun than expected against these bigger teams, although it's just a hunch and not based on much at all. I probably will end up going for the move, just for de bruyne's captaincy potential.

            1. Nice to Finally Michu
              • 7 Years
              6 months, 5 days ago

              I totally get that and it certainly is in line with the sentiment of the above article. Spurs can still do well in those fixtures to be sure and they can definitely turn a couple but I reckon their ceiling for goals is pretty low just because of whom they'll be facing and those can't be the ones to target

  9. squ1rrel
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Should I do Podence -> Ward-Prowse/another 6.0 or under mid or roll FT?

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Barkley over JWP for me in that price bracket but I wouldn't make that move this week. JWP with meh fixtures too

      Roll imo

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Roll

  10. olidooley
    • 8 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Hey guys....0.8itb here...1 FT...

    McCarthy
    TAA Chilwell Mitchell
    Salah Son Grealish Foden Soucek
    Kane Werner

    Peacock-Farrell Taylor Konsa Davis

    1) Save FT and gtg
    2) Foden to Bowen

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Tricky, Foden > Bowen could work out but that leaves you with no city. I'd probably do it, not sure foden starts at the weekend

    2. FantasyHero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      1

  11. davies
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    A) Dunne > Coufal (-4)

    B) Play Kilman (lei)

    C) Play Mitchell (LEE)

    1. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Tricky, i'd go B, just

    2. Mile Plankton
      • 8 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      B

    3. Sweetboi
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      B 100%

  12. Tsparkes10
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Taa, Ings to Chillwell, Vardy look good unless anything major in pressers?

    McCarthy
    Taa KWP corfal
    Greal Bruno Son Hamez
    DCL Ings Werner
    (Nyland, Podence, Mitchell, Konsa)

    1. Mile Plankton
      • 8 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Yup, sounds good.

  13. Mile Plankton
    • 8 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    This is my defence:
    Justin/Reece James/Lamptey//Saiss/Mitchell

    Will I have 3 of them playing?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Yes

    2. FantasyHero
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Wow
      I think u will have only 2 playing

  14. lilmessipran
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Tip for the day - A cheeky punt on Newcastle to score 2 or more goals at Soton for a medium stake bet looks good.. can see Soton's high line getting exploited by Asm's pace on the counter.. expecting goals in this one

    1. Mile Plankton
      • 8 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      As long as Wilson keeps quiet. 🙂

    2. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Unfortunately I agree with you. I think Saints will fall flat tomorrow with all of the injuries Hassenhuttl faces. Don't think this will be a long term issue but a Newcastle side high on confidence can do damage. Think I have to bench KWP for Dallas and the pool fullbacks as a result

  15. AlCapwnUK
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    GTG?

    Guaita
    TAA, Chilwell, Cresswell
    Salah, Son (c), Zaha, J Rod
    Werner, Maupay, Bamford

    Foden, Konsa, Mitchell

  16. Inazuma X1
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Pool City score predictions?

    1. Mile Plankton
      • 8 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      1:1

    2. Nice to Finally Michu
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      A bit like Der Klassiker this weekend in that I have no clue and dare not predict for fear of egg on my face

    3. Disturbed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      2-3

  17. davies
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    Son (c) or Kane (c)?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Son

  18. fcsaltyballs
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 5 days ago

    First sub:

    1. Saiss (lei)
    2. Brewster (che)

    Thanks.

    1. Disturbed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      2

  19. Pommie22
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Ok guys thoughts please
      1FT& 1.1 ITB
      Martinez,(Ryan)
      Robbo,Chillwell,Zouma,Lamptey
      Son,Salah,Grealish,Ziyech
      Kane,DCL

      Masuaku,Brewster,Anguissa.
      Roll FT and watch for any injuries over IB
      Contemplating Werner (now it seems on pens) and Jesus who looks like being back

    • Disturbed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Will Lampard have a presser today? Hoping for some Pulisic news.

      1. fcsaltyballs
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        yes, pre-deadline

        1. Disturbed
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          Cheers saltyballs

    • The Red Devil
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      Get in lamptey for a hit?
      Or play kilman/Taylor?

      1. Mile Plankton
        • 8 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        Play Kilman imo

    • gellinmagellan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 5 days ago

      McCarthy
      Robertson Saiss Justin James Mitchell
      Salah Grealish Son Pulisic Soucek
      Adams Kane DCL

      2 FTs and 0.8 ITB

      Pulisic > Ziyech and roll the other FT?

      1. lilmessipran
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        Your defense might be a worry with Saiss, Mitchell, James and in a few weeks Justin

        1. gellinmagellan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          True. I have my WC left though. I could do Saiss > Cresswell/Bellerin this week as well actually

      2. Mile Plankton
        • 8 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        Are you confident that you'll have 3 defenders playing?

        1. Mile Plankton
          • 8 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          I have 4 out of those 5 and Lamptey instead of Robertson.
          I am tempted to get Saiss out for a WHU defender.

          1. gellinmagellan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            Yeah, I think i'm gonna do the same

      3. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        Pulisic to Ziyech
        Sais to Cresswell

        Also get a second keeper 😉

        1. gellinmagellan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          Hahaha not worth mentioning 😛
          Thanks!

    • boomshakeboom
      • 1 Year
      6 months, 5 days ago

      everton vs manutd prediction anyone????

      1. Disturbed
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        1-1

      2. ivantys
          6 months, 5 days ago

          0-1

        • Holmes
          • 7 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          1-2

        • Poison Apple
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          1-2. Just becos everton dont win without richarlison

      3. Disturbed
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 months, 5 days ago

        Is pulisic is not confirmed fit, do these moves make sense for a hit?

        ward pulisic > zouma ziyech

        1. ivantys
            6 months, 5 days ago

            I won't do the ward one if you have another playing defender.

          • Christina.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            save the -4 if u can

            1. Disturbed
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Not worth it even if its a long term move?
              Defence is robbo, dallas and lamptey with Kilman first on bench.

              1. Bushwhacker
                • 1 Year
                6 months, 5 days ago

                If you’re playing Zouma and feel confident of a clean sheet then it can be worth it.

                1. Disturbed
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  6 months, 5 days ago

                  Cheers. Would play him for sure, probably over dallas.

        2. Puntillimon
          • 5 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          Play which one?
          A) KWP (NEW)
          B) Watkins (ars)

          1. sunzip14
            • 4 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            Got to go with B here, I think. He took the pen as well.

            1. Puntillimon
              • 5 Years
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Yeah I’m on him currently

          2. Bushwhacker
            • 1 Year
            6 months, 5 days ago

            2 pts a piece i reckon

        3. sunzip14
          • 4 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          Didn't see that Werner rise coming. Was all set on doing Jimenez>Werner after hearing from Lampard. Did TAA>Zouma last night. That .1 rise now making me overthink. Save the FT or still do what was planned?

          1. Puntillimon
            • 5 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            Think he rose cos of fixtures, form and newly given pens

            1. sunzip14
              • 4 Years
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Yes, those are surely the reasons but last I checked fplstatistics, he was far from rising. So, I just did the TAA>Zouma to beat the price rise and thought about doing this move after hearing from Lampard. Wanted to hear Pulisic's news to be sure if Werner would start or not. Maybe I should take that rise by the chin and still do the move?

        4. norab
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 months, 5 days ago

          Is it lunacy to play a bench boost without a 2nd playing keeper?

          1. Puntillimon
            • 5 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            Yes

          2. Must.Go.Faster.
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Totally dude

            • Bushwhacker
              • 1 Year
              6 months, 5 days ago

              On a non DGW ..

          3. EmreCan Hustle
            • 8 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            Good morning DZ.

            Given the existing Covid threat, my interest in Bowen and the fact that I don't want to lose Pulisic just yet, are the following transfers good?

            Bissouma + Watkins >> Bowen + Brewster (-4)?

            Current squad

            Martinez 4.0
            Robertson Chilwell Dallas Lamptey Ferguson
            Salah Son Pulisic Soucek BISSOUMA
            Kane DCL WATKINS

            Will bench Brewster and start Pulisic.

            Thanks.

            1. Bushwhacker
              • 1 Year
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Not sure Bowen gives you anything worth -4

              1. EmreCan Hustle
                • 8 Years
                6 months, 5 days ago

                But long term Brewster is better than Bissouma surely?

                1. Bushwhacker
                  • 1 Year
                  6 months, 5 days ago

                  Yes, so just do Brewster and leave the other to next week

                  1. EmreCan Hustle
                    • 8 Years
                    6 months, 5 days ago

                    Cheers.

          4. Disturbed
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            Best west ham defensive option besides cresswell?

            1. Puntillimon
              • 5 Years
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Many are on coufal

              1. sunzip14
                • 4 Years
                6 months, 5 days ago

                This

            2. JohnBlack
              • 2 Years
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Coufal

          5. WE GO FOR IT
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            6 months, 5 days ago

            Saiss + Pulisic to Chilwell + Grealish worth a hit?

            1. EmreCan Hustle
              • 8 Years
              6 months, 5 days ago

              Yes

              1. WE GO FOR IT
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                6 months, 5 days ago

                Cheers! 🙂